Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

An alien abduction, and then she fell out of the UFO when it accelerated too abruptly, no doubt.

And who said the Germans have no sense of humour.

[Jimbuna]

World leaders are meeting at the Munich Security Conference, as issues including Ukraine war and US-China relations dominate headlines.

Speaking at the event, US Vice-President Kamala Harris said her country had formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has urged world leaders to "double down" on military support for Kyiv by providing Nato-standard capabilities.

Sunak is also expected to meet European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen in an effort to secure a new post-Brexit trade deal for Northern Ireland.

China's top diplomat is also there, and has used the forum to denounce America's "hysterical" and "absurd" response to an alleged spy balloon incident.

[Jimbuna]

Over 30,000 Wagner fighters injured or killed in Ukraine, says US

By Phelan Chatterjee
BBC News

Over 30,000 mercenaries fighting for the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group have been killed or injured since the Ukraine war began, US officials say.

White House spokesman John Kirby said the group had suffered significant losses in recent weeks, with about 9,000 fighters killed in action.

Wagner has recruited heavily in Russian prisons, and Mr Kirby said most casualties were untrained convicts.

Despite the casualties, Wagner has made gains around the city of Bakhmut.

Some of the fiercest fighting of the war has taken place around the eastern city, with Wagner mercenaries heavily involved in Russian efforts to capture it.

Ukrainian troops say Wagner fighters had been sent into attacks in large numbers over open ground, and a Ukrainian army spokesperson said Moscow had failed to evacuate wounded and dead soldiers - leading to "places where their bodies are just piled up".

Capturing Bakhmut could allow Russia to make advances to bigger cities further west, like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.

However, Mr Kirby - the US National Security Council spokesman - suggested further advances could prove difficult given the gains made in Bakhmut had taken months to achieve and come at a "devastating cost that is not sustainable".

He also questioned the military significance of the city.

"It is possible that they may end up being successful in Bakhmut, but it will prove of no real worth to them because it is of no real strategic value," Mr Kirby told reporters.

Elsewhere, UK intelligence officials have estimated that Russian regular forces and Wagner troops may have suffered between 175,000-200,000 casualties - including 40,000-60,000 deaths.

The high number of deaths was "almost certainly" due to "extremely rudimentary medical provision", the UK's defence ministry said.

The Wagner Group was much smaller before the war, with just 5,000 fighters, most of whom were experienced former soldiers.

It started recruiting tens of thousands of fighters last year - largely from prisons, according to the US - as Russia had trouble finding troops for its invasion of Ukraine. Half of those convicts have probably been wounded or killed, UK officials say.

But last week, Mr Prigozhin, the group's founder, announced it would stop recruiting in prisons. The move followed longstanding tensions between Wagner and the Russian military.

"The number of Wagner units will decrease, and we will also not be able to carry out the scope of tasks that we would like to," he said.

Mr Prigozhin has blamed Moscow's "monstrous bureaucracy" for slowing down progress in Ukraine, and accused the Russian army of unfairly taking credit for previous Wagner successes.

Wagner is believed to have started operations in 2014 in the annexed Crimean Peninsula and has since operated elsewhere in Ukraine, in Syria and across Africa. It has been accused of brutality and war crimes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64685428

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Following comment by an FB friend-made me remember what I have read from history in the years 1934-1936/7.

"TV2 News reports that Mette Frederiksen is certain that Russia will invade other countries if they are not stopped in Ukraine.
A deeply foolish scare campaign"

Throughout these years 34-37 there were people even politicians like Churchill who warned about Hitler..

Hitler was popular in these years and those who warned about him was mocked.

Is history repeating itself ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 142,270 people (+1,010 per day), 3,303 tanks, 2,326 artillery systems, 6,533 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

As of the morning of February 18, 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers amount to approximately 142,270 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02/22 to 18/02/23 are approximately:

personnel - about 142,270 (+1,010) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3303 (+5) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6533 (+13) units,
artillery systems - 2326 (+4) units,
MLRS- 469 (+2) units,
air defense equipment - 243 (+2) units,
aircraft - 298 (+0) units,
helicopters - 287 (+0) units,
UAV of operational-tactical level - 2016 (+3),
cruise missiles - 871 (+0),
warships/boats - 18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5196 (+9) units,
special equipment - 223 (+2). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3400558

[Jimbuna]

Rishi Sunak: Ukraine's long-term security must be ensured now

By James Landale
Diplomatic correspondent

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has urged world leaders to send the most advanced weapons to Ukraine now in order to secure its long-term future.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Mr Sunak said allies must give the country "advanced, Nato-standard capabilities".

He said that now was the time to "double down" on military support.

Throughout the conference, Ukraine's allies have reiterated the case for defending the country.

The three-day gathering to discuss global security, taking place in Germany a few days ahead of the first anniversary of Russia's invasion, will provide a key test of Western support for Kyiv as both sides in the war prepare for spring offensives.

Ukraine's allies are trying to demonstrate their resolve, trying to convince the Russian government that they will not give up or give in, even if the cost in "blood and treasure" increases in coming months as both sides launch fresh military campaigns.

Most of those attending the conference - from heads of state and ministers to diplomats and spies - are from Europe or the US, including US Vice-President Kamala Harris and nearly 30 European heads of government. No Russian officials have been invited.

Speaking from Downing Street, Mr Sunak said he wanted to "make sure other countries follow our lead" in providing battle tanks, and training soldiers and aviators on Nato-standard aircrafts.

In his speech in Germany, he said: "Ukraine needs more artillery, armoured vehicles and air defences, so now is the time to double down on our military support.

"When Putin started this war, he gambled that our resolve would falter. Even now he is betting we will lose our nerve.

"But we proved him wrong then, and we will prove him wrong now."

Calling for a new Nato charter to provide assurances of long-term support, Mr Sunak said allies "must demonstrate that we'll remain by their side, willing and able to help them defend their country again and again".

He went on to say that, as well as having a military strategy "to gain a decisive advantage on the battlefield", allies also needed "to rebuild the international order on which our collective security depends".

Mr Sunak said international law needed to be upheld in order to hold Russia to account. He also called for "a new framework" for Ukraine's long-term security, and said the international community's response had not been strong enough against Russia's aggression.

Before his speech, Mr Sunak met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and both agreed on the need to sustain "the record level of international support for Ukraine", a Downing Street spokeswoman said.

Mr Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also agreed on "the importance of giving Ukraine the military momentum they need to secure victory against tyranny" in a meeting on the conference sidelines, said a No 10 spokesperson.

The unspoken question in Munich is what will happen if the participants meet this time next year and the war is still going on.

Of particular concern is whether the political and economic costs of the war could prove too much to bear, as the Russian leadership assumes, or the western alliance will stand firm behind Ukraine.

The uncertainty around these issues is another reason why allies want to step up support now, to ensure Ukraine can see off any Russian offensive and launch a counter-attack on its own. President Volodymyr Zelensky is not the only one urging speed.

Last week, the Ukrainian leader visited the UK, as well as Paris and Brussels, where he appealed for European leaders to supply his country with modern fighter jets.

The UK is to start training Ukrainian forces to fly Nato-standard jets and Mr Sunak has said "nothing is off the table".

But Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has said there will be no immediate transfer of UK fighter jets to Ukraine.

He told the BBC it could take months to train pilots and the UK was instead focused on using alternative provision of air cover to Ukraine.

Some Nato member countries are also worried that giving jets to Ukraine would be viewed as escalating the war, risking direct confrontation between the Western military alliance and Russia.

Since Russia invaded on 24 February last year, the UK has spent £2.3bn on military assistance, making the country the second biggest donor behind the US. The government has said it plans to match this spending again this year.

Military equipment provided by the UK so far includes tanks, air defence systems and artillery.

However, Kyiv has become increasingly frustrated by the time Western weapons have taken to arrive. Deliveries of battle tanks - promised last month by countries including Germany, the US and the UK - are still thought to be weeks away from arriving on the battlefield.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64674431

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Following comment by an FB friend-made me remember what I have read from history in the years 1934-1936/7.

"TV2 News reports that Mette Frederiksen is certain that Russia will invade other countries if they are not stopped in Ukraine.
A deeply foolish scare campaign"

Throughout these years 34-37 there were people even politicians like Churchill who warned about Hitler..

Hitler was popular in these years and those who warned about him was mocked.

Is history repeating itself ?

Markus

Its frightening to recall how close the camp around Chamberlain was to overthrow Churchill after he became PM. So frighteningly close.

The movie "Darkest Hour" with Gary Oldman as Churchill describes it, I did not know of that plot until then.

[Jimbuna]

NATO supports accession of Ukraine, but now it is necessary to ensure victory in war - Stoltenberg

The support of NATO allies for Ukraine’s future membership in the Alliance remains unchanged, but now the main efforts of NATO countries are focused on supporting Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this today during a discussion at the Munich Security Forum, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"NATO's position regarding the future membership of Ukraine remains unchanged. We agreed back in 2008 (during the Bucharest NATO Summit. - Ed.) that Ukraine will become a member of the Alliance, and this remains our position. It is important now to ensure the victory of Ukraine as a sovereign independent state. Because without it remaining as a sovereign and independent state, there is no point in discussing any relationship between NATO and Ukraine in the future. So there is an urgent need to provide Ukraine with military support, which NATO allies and partners are doing every day." - noted the head of the Alliance, answering the question of People's Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko, whether we can expect practical steps to speed up the process of Ukraine joining the Alliance during the next NATO summit, which is to be held in Vilnius on July 11-12 this year.

He noted that together with British Prime Minister Sunak, he discussed what the security framework conditions could be after the end of this war in order to prevent Russia from repeating aggressive actions against Ukraine and other European countries in the future.

"When this war is over, we have to make sure that history doesn't repeat itself, that Russia can't continue to invade Ukraine. Because that's the pattern of behavior. It started in 2008 with (Russia's) invasion of Georgia, then in 2014 - annexation of Crimea and Donbas, and last year - a full-scale invasion of Ukraine," Stoltenberg emphasized.

"We cannot allow Russia to continue undermining European security, we need to break this cycle of Russian aggression against European countries. So when this war ends, we must create certain framework conditions to make sure that Russian aggression will not continue," added the NATO Secretary General .

He emphasized that he considers the rapid accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance an important factor for strengthening European security, and expressed his belief that this process can be completed during the summit in Vilnius.

We will remind you that on February 17-18, a meeting of leading politicians of Europe and the world is taking place in Germany as part of the Munich Security Conference, which is dedicated to the most pressing problems of European and world security. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3400634

Ministers of G7 countries agreed on further support for Ukraine, - Kuleba

Head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Dmytro Kuleba, said that during the meeting, the ministers of the "Big Seven" countries agreed on further support for Ukraine.

He wrote about this on Twitter, Censor.NET reports.

According to Kuleba, it is about speeding up the supply of weapons and the introduction of new sanctions against the Russian Federation.

"I took part in the G7 ministerial meeting at the invitation of Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi. We focused on everything needed for Ukraine's victory in 2023. There will be quick arms deliveries and new sanctions," Kuleba wrote.

The minister also emphasizes that neither Ukraine nor the world will tire of countering the Kremlin's aggression. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3400633

[Onkel Neal]

Quick note bout recent posts: as long as they do not violate our rules, we should allow them. Feel free to ignore anything you disagree with, anything you think is provocative, goofy, or just plain wrong.

[Jimbuna]

US has warned China against helping Russia with weapons

The Vice President of the United States of America, Kamala Harris, warned China against helping Russia with lethal weapons that could be used by it in the war against Ukraine.

She said this during a speech at the Munich Security Conference, Censor.NET reports with reference to UNIAN.

According to Harris, the US is concerned about the deepening of cooperation between the Russian Federation and China over the past year.

"We see states like North Korea and Iran sending weapons to support Russia's brutal war. We are also concerned that Beijing has deepened its relations with Moscow since the war began. Any moves by China to provide lethal support to Russia will only reward aggression, continue killings and will further undermine the rules-based international order," Harris said.

At the same time, she emphasized that Washington will resolutely continue to support Ukraine. "And we'll do it as long as it takes," Harris said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3400637

Great Britain will be first country to provide Ukraine with long-range weapon - Sunak

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed that his country will provide Ukraine with long-range weapons.

His statement was quoted by the press center of the Munich Security Conference, Censor.NET informs.

"Great Britain will be the first country to provide long-range weapons to Ukraine," the tweet reads. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3400642

Elected president of Czech Republic, Pavel, warned against such victory of Ukraine, which would destroy Russian Federation: "There may be more problems"

Former NATO general Petr Pavel, who won the Czech presidential election in January 2023 and is due to take office in March, believes that the West should be careful in seeking to defeat Russia in order to avoid undesirable scenarios of such a defeat.

He stated this at the "Ukrainian Lunch" within the framework of the Munich Security Conference, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration".

Commenting on the probable outcome of the war after the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, declared that the return of Crimea and international punishment of Russia are inadmissible, Pavel said that the West should refrain from supporting one or another scenario.

"We need to be careful about pushing Ukraine to a certain result. Maybe at some point Ukraine will change its vision," he added.

Petr Pavel emphasized that the defeat of the Russian Federation has various scenarios, including those that the West should avoid.

"It is possible that this will lead to the collapse of Russia... If Russia collapses, then we may have more problems, we will have no one to negotiate disarmament with," he emphasized.

Pavel did not specify what exactly, in his opinion, should change in the actions of the West for this, but urged "to be realistic - hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3400644

Modern fighters will be delivered to Ukraine only after war, - Wallace

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said that Ukraine will be able to get modern Typhoon fighters only after the end of the war.

He said this in an interview with Spiegel, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrainian Pravda.

According to him, there will be no quick deliveries of fighters.

"At least not at this stage of the war, and I'm sure it won't even be six months from now. It's going to be quite a while before anyone puts fighter jets in Ukraine, let's be honest about that. Modern aircraft like the Eurofighter, which we have In Great Britain, we call it Typhoon, will be delivered to Ukraine only after the war," said Wallace.

According to him, this is the consensus among Western partners.

"Nevertheless, being ready in principle to take this step at a certain moment, we are signaling our determination to help Ukraine as much as it will be needed," he emphasized.

The minister reminded that pilot training takes a lot of time.

"That's why it's better to start now. We all don't know how this war will continue, whether it will continue for another year or two. By starting fighter training, we are preparing ourselves for the unexpected, on the other hand, we have nothing to lose," Wallace said. .

"If at some point we decide to actually send fighter jets, we will be ready. Unlike battle tanks, there will be no delays with fighter jets after a political decision is made," he explained. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3400646

[Commander Wallace]

I came across an interesting article.


Ukraine war has exposed the folly – and unintended consequences – of 'armed missionaries'

Ronald Suny, Professor of History and Political Science, University of Michigan Fri, February 17, 2023 at 8:48 AM EST

The evening before Russia invaded Ukraine, it seemed to many observers – me included – nearly unimaginable that Putin would carry through with weeks of a threatened military attack. As I wrote at the time, Putin is not as erratic or rash as he is sometimes painted.

I had failed to take into account that Putin is, in the words of French statesman and revolutionary Maximilien Robespierre, an “armed missionary.” Writing in 1792, Robespierre explained, “The most extravagant idea that can take root in the head of a politician is to believe that it is enough for one people to invade a foreign people to make it adopt its laws and constitution. No one likes armed missionaries; and the first advice given by nature and prudence is to repel them as enemies.”
Those words seem fitting as Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war in Ukraine reaches a grim first anniversary on Feb. 24, 2023.

Putin’s decision marked the beginning of a year of massive destruction and death in Ukraine and of extraordinary costs – both economic and in lives lost – for Russia.

It was also a colossal blunder on Putin’s part: It has weakened Russia significantly, solidified the NATO powers around the leadership of the United States and created a more unified, nationally conscious Ukraine than had existed before the war.

Imperial overreach

As a fading power, Putin’s Russia has refused to accept its own limitations, both economically and militarily. In invading its smaller neighbor, Russia made a bid to upset the international system headed by the United States. It also sought to establish its own hegemony over Ukraine, and by implication, over much of the former Soviet Union.
But Russia’s failure to “decapitate” the Ukrainian government, which in turn inspired heroic resistance by Ukrainians, proved a disastrous example of what might be called “imperial overreach” – when a state tries to expand or control other states beyond its own capacity to do so.



One of many destroyed and abandoned Russian tanks. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
It has produced a weakened Russia – an isolated pariah state perceived as a threat to democracies and the rules-based liberal international security system.


Meanwhile, Putin’s diatribes against the West have evolved from complaints about the expansion of NATO to attacking the permissive culture of the West.

Putin deploys rhetoric about dangerously subversive liberal, democratic values and practices – echoing right-wing politicians like Hungary’s Victor Orbán and Giorgia Meloni, the far-right Italian leader. It appears that a new “International” – just as ominous to the liberal West as the Communist International was – is being formed of illiberal and authoritarian states, with Russia a key member.

This view of the Ukrainian war as a cultural struggle plays in the Russian media as an emotional rallying cry to mobilize the basest fears of Putin’s people.

Propaganda disguised as news, social media posts and the screeds of government officials are being deployed to shape ordinary Russians’ perceptions of the war.

Toward a multipolar world?

The consequences of Putin’s miscalculation are not limited to the war itself, or to Europe. Rather, they have had reverberations far beyond the battlefields of Ukraine and the homes of Russians whose sons have been slaughtered or fled abroad.

Putin’s imperial aggression against Ukraine – implausibly proclaimed to be a defense of a united Russia and of Ukrainian peoples against Nazi usurpers – has a long genealogy.
Ever since his famous speech at the Munich Security Forum in 2007,

Russia’s president has railed against the “unipolar” military and economic dominance of the United States. What he wants is “multipolarity” – that is, the ability of other great powers to hold sway over their neighborhoods.
In such a multipolar world, Ukraine and Georgia would never join NATO and much of the former Soviet Union would fall under the umbrella of Russia. China would have paramount influence in East Asia, likewise India in South Asia. And perhaps this is Iran’s ambition in much of the Middle East.
To countries hostile to the United States – and even to some friendly states – this multipolar rearrangement of the international order has considerable appeal.

Yes, the war in Ukraine has solidified the Western alliance around its idea of the rules-based international order that has been in place since 1945. But it has also awakened the aspirations of “the Global South” – those countries in neither NATO nor the former Soviet bloc, largely in the Southern Hemisphere.

Countries from Latin America and Africa to Pacific Island nations have urged a greater dispersion and sharing of international clout. The two most populous countries in the world, India and China, have expressed their support for a new multipolar international order and have not been openly critical of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Redefining regional, global power struggles

The war in Ukraine has also had ripple effects on other global tensions.
With Taiwan as a potential flashpoint and saber-rattling by North Korea, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines are gravitating toward closer military cooperation with the United States in East Asia. China and North Korea are moving in the opposite direction, closer to Russia.
The Ukraine war is also reshaping the long-festering conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both states desire sovereign power over the disputed region of mountainous Karabakh. But with Russia bogged down militarily and economically, Putin has been disinclined to aid Armenia, its one loyal ally in the South Caucasus.

This is despite the fact that Azerbaijan has repeatedly violated the borders of its neighbor.
Azerbaijan, by contrast, has been increasingly aided by its regional allies Israel – spurred by a shared hostility to Iran – and Turkey. Both have supplied Azerbaijan with advanced weaponry, giving the country an upper hand in the conflict.

The Ukraine conflict also has an effect on the great global power struggle to come: China and U.S. With EU states and regional rivals to China forging closer ties with Washington, Beijing may eye a growing threat – or even an opportunity to exert its influence more aggressively as regional power dynamics evolve.

American policymakers in both the Trump and Biden administrations have warned that the rise of China, economically and militarily, is a serious threat to the continued position of the U.S. as the strongest, richest state on the globe. To its competitors on the global stage, the U.S. also looks like an armed missionary.

The uncertainty of the Ukraine war, and the still uncertain ways in which it is reshaping geopolitics, will do little to dislodge those fears. Rather, it may encourage international relations scholars, such as Harvard professor Graham Allison, who believe in the “Thucydides’ Trap.” Based on the ancient Greek historian’s explanation for the origins of the Peloponnesian War, the theory has it that when an emerging power threatens to displace a regional or global hegemon, war is inevitable.

As someone trained to look to the past to understand the present and possible futures, I believe that nothing in history is inevitable; human beings always have choices. This was true for Putin on the eve of the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, and it is true for policymakers around the world today.

But the decision to invade Ukraine underscores a clear danger: When statesmen perceive the world as a Darwinian zero-sum game of winners and losers, a clash between the West and the rest, or as an ideological conflict between autocracies and democracies, they can create the conditions – through provocation, threat or even invasion – that lead to wars with unintended consequences.

This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. The Conversation has a variety of fascinating free newsletters.
It was written by: Ronald Suny, University of Michigan.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-w...134833375.html

[mapuc]

I don't know if I have posted this before-The comment that is.

Are we prepared for what may come-When Putin comes to his senses and understand that he has lost the war in Ukraine ?

I expect everything from him-From Nukes to suicide

Markus

[Catfish]

Putin coming to his senses, hmm. Anyone expecting that?
When his time has come he will be unpredictable as always, so what's new.
As Commander Wallace wrote Putin is more of a missionary, problem is no one thinks of or believes in his theories. And as it is with those heralds of a glorious world coming most people do not buy this crap and may react harshly