Wuhan virus 2020

[Traveller]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Frankly IMO we have the best doctors, minds in medicine and health care in the world and I think you will see that in the long run. Even Anthony Stephen "Tony" Fauci said after its all over said and done we will probably have closer to a 1% case fatality rate. As for Europe and the rest of the world? Well, maybe you should stop worrying about our healthcare system and see if yours can come close to matching it.

What an absolutely ridiculous, arrogant statement to make. I can see you are still in denial. The US is not immune to what is coming.

Most hospitals in the US were already understaffed and overloaded with patients before this pandemic began. The US reacted too late and it's healthcare system will quickly become overwhelmed. That's a guarantee.

Back on my ignore list you go.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Thats why they have the maximum number of cases in the shortest period of time and that is why their hospitals are drowning. Add to this that they have around 3 beds per 1000 population only, and only few of them with full intensive care equipment.

Add in that the people live in an old country very close to each other with a social bar or a small grocery store on every corner with a predominantly senior citizen population, which by your own admission are being denied hospital health care in favor of the younger citizens.

Originally Posted by Skybird

I am surprised how badly the American system does. I did not know that, only knew that it is overpriced. They always boast with having "the best health care" in the world and the "best hospitals" in the world and "the best doctors" in the world - but its of little use. Too little of everything, and too expensive. And that was already before Trump happened to the system and cut funds for the CDC. Yesterday's video by Traveller explained it "nicely". Means: the description was depressing. And scandalous.

Another fact you are missing is that only 50% of the population of America pay taxes not all can afford health care. The seniors over 65 have medicare and the poor have access to medicare if they have been pre-approved by social security. The upper people in the government have the best health care and of course the armed services Army, Navy, Airforce, Coast Guard active duty and retired have free medical too. The government itself is one of the largest employers of the population and they have health care.

Even the illegal people that enter America have free health care provided by some unknown little law that I didn't even know about. In the state of California for example if you are an illegal alien you can apply for medical and after you are approved medical will pay your medicare dues ($144 a month) in order for the US government to provide you with health care which means that California doesn't have to foot any medical bills.

Originally Posted by Skybird

A big mystery is Japan. They try to avoid testing as consequently as they can, they do not want to loose the Olympics and so sacrifice their people for the economic goal. A victim not counted and officially registered, is a victim not existing. How much must a people get brain-washed to form a servile, suicidal mentality that they cooperate so willingly with their own destruction? Not for one minute I believe that they have the low case numbers that they report. They avoid testing as much as they can, that simple it is.


Germany , by the understanding of the officials, may be on a good way, but this understanding gets compromised again by inconsistence in deciison.making and fear not to trigger unpopular measures. The excuses they give, turn more absurd every day, at least in my understanding of what they claim. So I expect to learn over this year that Germany underperforms in this crisis and causes much more damage and losses than by its starting conditions it would have needed to accept. Its wasti8ng its chances, in other words. Heck, its one of the globe'S most potent health system, by numerical capacities - and as I see it they carelessly trade this advantage away more and more every day by delaying needed measures day by day by day by day, and so neutralising these advantages we should have enjoyed, but now probably will not, or only at a much lesser level than could have had. Wasted chances.

True as far as I believe in Travellers posting saying this is true

The problem is too complexed to figure out right now ...

The next problem will be the people suspected of having Covid-19 and are ordered to stay at home in self quarantine for 14 days. Who will pay their bills? How will they survive? Who will feed them?

Some reports have the Federal government paying them to stay home at a cost of over $900 billion dollars

All of that will be discussed tonight by President Trump on national TV beginning at 9pm est.

Panic has not really started yet in America, but it will
Already today sports teams are saying no crowds will be allowed in college or professional basketball games just the players and coaches and officials.

Seattle just today has said no groups over 350 people may attend any group gatherings

That includes sports and churches and business meetings.

I believe finger pointing and blame is still on the way as this is in the human nature

[Traveller]

Japan is slowly increasing testing, but not nearly enough. Total number of tests performed is now only around 9,000, but many of those are multiple tests on the same person.

From the beginning, the worthless bureaucrats have tried to cover up this pandemic by pretending Japan is immune. No testing = No infections.

There were almost zero flight restrictions until just recently. Thousands of Chinese tourists continued to flow into Japan every day until about 10 days ago. All they cared about was protecting tourism profits and the Olympic Games. Schools are now closed, and large events are being cancelled, but it's too little, too late as far as I'm concerned.

They made the same mistakes as Italy by waking up too late, and it's going to cost them dearly. Japan has the oldest population in the world (Italy is second). There will be many, many deaths here.

Italy reports at least 2,313 new cases on Wednesday. Largest daily increase so far.

Italy has recorded a jump of 2,313 coronavirus cases on Wednesday, with the total tally now at 12,462, the country's Civil Protection Agency said.

This is the biggest recorded jump since the outbreak began, but the head of the Italian Civil Protection Agency Angelo Borelli said that authorities did not have all of the data for Lombardy, the worst hit region, on Tuesday so those numbers did not fully reflect the situation.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-n...hnk/index.html

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Congratulations, WHO, somebody brought you a coffee two months ago, and today you finally managed to get a first ice-cold sip of it.

The first time I watched them on the news and wondered who is pulling your strings or are they so bloody incompetent. It was clear this virus was spreading like wild fire in China and was going to spread around the world, anyone drinking coffee could see that!

W.H.O's cheese has slid off the cracker and the light is on but no one is home.


And now for STEED's tip of the day.....

When you see no toilet paper on the shelf's in your supermarket buy a copy of the Daily Mail.

Just like me, thanks to morons panic buying you bunch of selfish b'stards.

[d@rk51d3]

India just cancelled all visas, and has basically closed borders for the next 4 weeks.

Daughter was due to fly out in a few days to visit my sister.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Frankly IMO we have the best doctors, minds in medicine and health care in the world and I think you will see that in the long run. Even Anthony Stephen "Tony" Fauci said after its all over said and done we will probably have closer to a 1% case fatality rate. As for Europe and the rest of the world? Well, maybe you should stop worrying about our healthcare system and see if yours can come close to matching it. As far as criteria for the testing that idiot youtube alarmist drama queen was going on about. I whole heartily agree with the testimony given before congress today. CDC has 75,000 test kits available and there are 1 million kits available through commercial sources and growing. As far as criteria for getting tested, its an absolute necessity. Because you cant test every one of the 350 million tom dick and harry's in this country just because they want one and makes them feel good. It would cause an unimaginable backlog of bullcrap tests slowing down the entire process for those that really need it.

I disagree, your country is one of the latest testing starters of all, for the initial few test there were, were designed to do multiple tricks, and one of these tricks failed and made all the kit unusable. The capacity for lab analysis was terribly low and now needs to slowly get boosted up. Traveller posted that videoyesterday that clearly listed how terrirbly slow and ignorrant the start phase so far has been. The cDC errected artifical bureaucratic hurdles that seem to have been designed to make testing as difficult if not impossible as they could manage. By now, the virus has had wonderful conditions to spread, thanks to the failing ability n dwillingness of the CDC to tackle it early.

I leave out a discussion on health care costs for the most here, just leave it to that in the Us you pay roughly twice as much for general the same or slightly inferior total medical performance for the average Joe (who can afford it) compared to the - already expensive - German system, and as I pointed out earlier, Germany has almost three times as many beds in hospitals per 1000 people of population, than the US, the hospital density is much higher over here. The numbers and tables were given by me two days ago, look them up. The university quality may be higher in the US, it certainly is so, but for getting the treatment to the masses that now need it, your system has set up a very bad start, and this will cost your people dearly. Too many weeks were wasted - like in Iran's and Italy's case, the difference maybe is that the average age of the Us population is not as old and so the lethality of the virus does not score as successful as in these two coutnries. We will see.

My comments and criticsm were numbers- and fact oriented, and not meant to just attack you country. Your patriotism thus is a bit out of place. No attack was meant nor carried out. I just say that the US has had a very awful start at this, and that I was surprised that this is so. If you follow the videos posted by Traveller you know that I am by far not the first observing this. It has been noticed and commented on already by smarter and more competent minds than me.

Our system of government makes the States the front line of defense the federal government is a supporting role. This is why we hear governors declaring states of emergency. It activates the mechanism which allows the state and federal government to assist in a great many ways they normally don't. We dont live in a dictatorship or centralized government. It is what is and may seem slow going at first but like all the others times in our history once the ball gets rolling watch out.

Your system in this regard is like ours, Germany is of a federalist structure with 16 Bundesländer that compare to your 50 states, and in this the central national health ministry indeed has surprisingly little to command and the initiative and authority mostly lies with the individual Länder. Not different than what you say about the US.



Your late start however is up against an enemy much stronger than the Japanese power and industry in WWII - you are up against logarithmic progression, and you seem to completely underestimate that. This exponential growth of infections has run since days and weeks, unopposed for the most. And this fact will make itself felt, trust me. You cant imrpess mathematics with patriotism.

Exponential developments are hard to imagine for us humans, and students find it hard to mentally wrap their mind about what it is and how it is calculated. I find it hostile ground to calculate, too. Still, helpful is to visualise the effects. Today I red a nice new way of demonstrating it. The autor said there are two men doing 30 steps each of them. The first does 30 steps with linear length, always the same step length. The secod has his step length, due to miracle shoes, exponentially growing with every step, doubling the step length. After thirty steps, the first man got around 30 meters far. The second man has surrounded Earth one and a half times. And then there is the old classical story of the chessboard and the rice corn, which I found a nice video illustration for here:


Skip the German narration and jump to the illustration starting at 02:40.

That is the sort of power we are up against. Nurses will get ill and drop out of the workforce. So will doctors. This with limited bed capacities, exponentially growing patient numbers, increasing consummation of supplies with masks and protective clothing. Tnhats why it was so important to stretch the developemnt over time. The same number of people will ge till, but not all in the same short time intervall, but in a logner time interval, that gives relief to the system.

And this is just the first wave, guys. It will go until late summer, then there will be a drop, quarantines will be dropped, population still is far from having an immunization level to stop the virus, and so it will then start again. Maybe with a mutated format. Many seasonal flus are not just one season of the year, but come in waves of two, in late winter to early spring, and then again in late summer to early autumn - and the second often has twice as high amplitudes in case numbers. If it goes like this with Covid19, then the fun has not even started for us.

One of the videos by Traveller shows a calculation for the existing storages in masks and protective suits in the US at that time, a few days ago, it shows how fast these will be consummed up once the show is in full swing, and nurses and doctors dropping out of the duty scheme due to gettin ill, themselves. the suplies will last - for TWO DAYS. Key materials for filters come from - China.

Come to your senses, Rockstar. Your optimism has absolutely no justification currently. Not if there will not be a miracle.

The argument that government should have done this or done that before it got to this country is a useless one. It took China at least two months before they notified the rest of the world what they were up against and a month later we finally got the genome sequence. So this virus has been out there silently doing its thing quite possibly for the last six months and long before anyone else knew about it. My advice is quit going on like bunch of hens and buckle up everyone. There is nothing you can do about it other than prepare food, reduce social contact, eat right and get your rest.

Still your country wasted precious weeks with not being able to run tests because the few existing kits did not work. Give it up, Rockstar. And stop taking what I say personally or as an offense. Its no attack aimed at your country, I am pointing out the obvious, or better: I just repeat what criticla epxerts have pointed out long before me or Traveller.You should not defend how your leaders have performed so far (you have no reaosn to celebrate them for it), but you should fume in anger and let them know what mess they have created. Demonstrating in the streets currently cannot be recommended, however.


We are royally screwed. Our only luck currently is that this virus - is a relatively friendly one. Else we could be in a fight for the mere survival of our species and civilization now. And maybe this is the good thing about Covid-19. That it may kill scores and does huge economic damage, yes - but with all force sticks our noses into the giant holes in your pandemic emergency plans and bad preparation and underfunded reserve keepings, making us aware of how weak our defences are. Showing us that for the big bad bug coming we need to dramatically imrpove our preparation effort in advance. Need to get fire under politicians' rears, The number of virus pandemics coming from Asia has increased in past twenty years, their frequency speeds up, It will speed up further, and it is only a question of time until the real bad monster bug will be amongst it. If then we play the game like we play it this time, man is toast.



-----


I have informed my parents today that we will not personally meet any time soon again, I am too afraid that I infect them with a virus while not knowing that I already maybe carrying it. I would never forgiove myself that. I also told them that I will do their shoppings from immediately on, once a week, they send me a list, and I buy it and leave it on their doorstep, I will not enter the appartment. Google Duo via WLAN suddenly becomes a blessing. They should get out and do their walks, and biyccle tours - but not in town, but in free space and nature, and I do not want them to expose themsleves to the risk by entering shops and supermarkets. At their age, and with their health status, they have a risk of 20-30% that it ends deadly for them if they catch the infection. Already now, with still a few free beds in intense care.

In very short time, there will be no more free beds. Exponential growth you know.


Everybody should keep on mind: after you got infected, you turn infectous yourself after 12-18 hours, and form symptoms telling you are ill after 5 days. These are average values that often seem to get met. This means for 3.3 days you can walk around and infect other people, even those who are dear to you - and you do not even know you infect them, because you do not know that you are ill. ACT ACCORDINGLY!!!

[Onkel Neal]

Tom Hanks has corvid-19, I bet this shakes up a lot of people.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/tom-han...ie-1202880431/

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by STEED

The first time I watched them on the news and wondered who is pulling your strings or are they so bloody incompetent. It was clear this virus was spreading like wild fire in China and was going to spread around the world, anyone drinking coffee could see that!

W.H.O's cheese has slid off the cracker and the light is on but no one is home.


And now for STEED's tip of the day.....

When you see no toilet paper on the shelf's in your supermarket buy a copy of the Daily Mail.

"Fantastic! I'm saved!"

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Tom Hanks has corvid-19, I bet this shakes up a lot of people.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/tom-han...ie-1202880431/

You are behind Italy by 1.5 to 2 weeks - your people will soon be shaken much more dramatically than just one ill actor.

[August]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You are behind Italy by 1.5 to 2 weeks - your people will soon be shaken much more dramatically than just one ill actor.

It might be a bit more disconcerting to the people of Australia which is where Hanks and his wife contracted the virus, and where they still remain BTW, but please, do go on chicken little.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

In very short time, there will be no more free beds. Exponential growth you know.

Exponential growth is unconstrained growth. Once containment measures begin that calculation can no longer be applied. We have since moved on to the complicated and more realistic Verhulst model. Unlike poor Italy, and Iran the medical professionals and facilities in my country will have a considerably profound affect on it's growth because they are among the best in the world.


https://services.math.duke.edu/educa...tic/logi1.html

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by August

It might be a bit more disconcerting to the people of Australia which is where Hanks and his wife contracted the virus, and where they still remain BTW, but please, do go on chicken little.

Maybe Reece could keep them company ... one things for sure they ain't coming back to the states anytime soon

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You are behind Italy by 1.5 to 2 weeks - your people will soon be shaken much more dramatically than just one ill actor.

Yeah, true but it is Tom Hanks!

Meanwhile, I guess you saw this

Angela Merkel says she expects around 60-70 per cent of Germans will be infected with the coronavirus, which equates to about 53 million people.

Reportedly, the German Parliament fell completely silent when Merkel stated the number.

https://summit.news/2020/03/10/merke...h-coronavirus/

Is that real? Or fake news? Not sure here.

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Exponential growth is unconstrained growth. Once containment measures begin that calculation can no longer be applied. We have since moved on to the complicated and more realistic Verhulst model. Unlike poor Italy, and Iran the medical professionals and facilities in my country will have a considerably profound affect on it's growth because they are among the best in the world.

Actually, I don't think the quality of the health facilities has as much to do with as people will freak out and get serious about staying home once the numbers explode. Once the numbskulls realize they are in it, there will be some serious social distancing. Just my opinion.

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by August

It might be a bit more disconcerting to the people of Australia which is where Hanks and his wife contracted the virus, and where they still remain BTW, but please, do go on chicken little.

He's probably right, we are about 2 weeks behind Italy.



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESshSpfWAAECPLR.png

[Aktungbby]

Yipes! The NBA just cancelled the remainder of the season!