UK Politics Thread

[Jimbuna]

The DUP could well be the key to getting a resolution to this madness but so far (as expected) are refusing to change their stance.

Hypothetically, if a sizeable number of northern Labour MP's voted for Mays deal and by some monumental miracle it passed, would that threaten the break-up of the Union?

[Jimbuna]

The Conservative MP behind a series of indicative votes in the Commons has insisted the process could still find a consensus despite Wednesday night’s first attempt ending in deadlock, saying a final collapse of Theresa May’s deal would focus minds.

Eight votes on alternative Brexit options, put before the Commons after MPs seized control of the parliamentary process from the government, resulted in no majority for any of them, although the vote was close on one softer Brexit option.

Oliver Letwin, the Tory former minister whose amendment created the process, said this was to be expected, and that if May’s deal is defeated for a third time if put to MPs on Friday, this could forge unity if the only other option was no deal on 12 April.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...id=mailsignout

Highly unlikely in my estimation but I'd like to think I could be wrong.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The DUP could well be the key to getting a resolution to this madness but so far (as expected) are refusing to change their stance.

Hypothetically, if a sizeable number of northern Labour MP's voted for Mays deal and by some monumental miracle it passed, would that threaten the break-up of the Union?

What is your assessment of the mood - has the issue of Backstop lost in relevance in the perception of politicians? I did not hear it being mentioned since quite a "long" time now, and hardliners seem to focus now on accepting May'S deal with the EU (including the Backstop clause) and instead want to take control of the negotiations for new trade arrangements after Brexit. No talk of Backstop anymore - has all the concern vanished?

And what is left to negotiate for hardliners if the Backstop option looms like a threat over the Irish question? How could they seriously hope to negotiate tougher than May did with this option still being a possible scenario, and the EU being able to swing it any time like a ban hammer whenever the UK side demands anything "tough"? The EU then could say: "If you do not give up that demand, we will not accept your and our proposed settlement of the Irish question and activate Backstop."

Is that suddenly no concern anymore in media, public opinion, political assessment?


I tend to beleive that hardiners already once again started to base on another dangerous folly. That is that they could negotiate "tough" with the Backstop clause being agreed to. Thats like negotiating with the other holding a loaded unlocked pistol at your sleeve.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

What is your assessment of the mood - has the issue of Backstop lost in relevance in the perception of politicians? I did not hear it being mentioned since quite a "long" time now, and hardliners seem to focus now on accepting May'S deal with the EU (including the Backstop clause) and instead want to take control of the negotiations for new trade arrangements after Brexit. No talk of Backstop anymore - has all the concern vanished?

And what is left to negotiate for hardliners if the Backstop option looms like a threat over the Irish question? How could they seriously hope to negotiate tougher than May did with this option still being a possible scenario, and the EU being able to swing it any time like a ban hammer whenever the UK side demands anything "tough"? The EU then could say: "If you do not give up that demand, we will not accept your and our proposed settlement of the Irish question and activate Backstop."

Is that suddenly no concern anymore in media, public opinion, political assessment?


I tend to beleive that hardiners already once again started to base on another dangerous folly. That is that they could negotiate "tough" with the Backstop clause being agreed to. Thats like negotiating with the other holding a loaded unlocked pistol at your sleeve.

I don't think there is any appetite for doing anything that will threaten the Union but nor do I believe there is an overwhelming consensus of will for anything remotely tangible.

I'm thinking in terms of the eventual outcome being either a no deal Brexit or remain and my money is currently on the latter.

One thing is for sure....if Brexit does not happen, May can sit tight until December if she so wishes and a two thirds majority is needed to give a green light for a general election.

[Skybird]

No talk, no fear, no worrying , no mentioning of Backstop anymore? Have those politicians who said they were against May'S deal but now will probably vote for it if she leaves office, said anything about what has come of their concerns about Backstop? Does it even get explicitly mentioned?


Sounds to me there is a will to not solve the issue but to delay dealing with it. Will necessarily lead to a very tough wake-up one day.


And has become known anything on what substantial changes - that Bercow made a precondition to allow a third vote over May'S deal - do look like? His accentuation was strongly with regard to "substantial", not just cosmetical changes.

[Jimbuna]

The Backstop is still probably the major obstacle but you are correct in a sense that it is seldom mentioned publicly in recent times. My opinion is that May is hoping for sufficient support from Labour rebels to outnumber the ten votes the DUP have but that is probably only wishful thinking and will never become a reality.

As for Bercow....

On another day of Brexit chaos the Speaker warned the government that Mrs May's deal must have changed from the last time she brought it forward for a vote – and she cannot use a procedural device known as a ‘paving motion’ to get around him.

Bercow has already been accused of having Remainer sympathies and trying to thwart Britain leaving the EU.

May’s government insists that a new Brexit date agreed with the EU and clarifications to the backstop announced at a summit in Brussels amount to a ‘significant change’.

The Speaker alone will decide if the change is sufficient and is expected to announce the night before if he will block a third vote.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-sabotage.html

[Skybird]

The dead live longer. German news reports these statements by DUP, in summary. I do not know the English sources, so give a translation of the German text afterwards.

"Niemand aus der DUP wird das Austrittsabkommen so wie es ist unterstützen. Denn dadurch würde Nordirland im Warteraum für Verfassungsänderungen sitzen." (...) "Mit Blick darauf, dass die notwendigen Änderungen, die wir beim Backstop anstreben, nicht zwischen der Regierung und der EU gesichert worden sind, und auf das anhaltende strategische Risiko, das Nordirland am Ende der Übergangsphase in den Backstop-Vereinbarungen gefangen wäre, werden wir die Regierung nicht unterstützen, wenn sie eine dritte bedeutungsvolle Abstimmungen einreichen."

"No one from the DUP will support the exit agreement as it stands because it would put Northern Ireland in the waiting room for constitutional changes." (...) "" In view of the fact that the necessary changes we are aiming for at backstop have not been secured between the government and the EU, and the ongoing strategic risk that Northern Ireland will end up in the backstop at the end of the transition period, we will not support the government if they submit a third meaningful vote. "

So at least the Northern Irish still are aware of the bomb with the burning short fuse. And I tell the English: the EU will not give this trump card out of its hands. Everybody voting for May'S deal must know this and must be realistic about this. The Backstop will not be negotiated away. Its too nice to have the UK by its balls as if the EU would give that grip up.

[STEED]

Here we go again and again yes that daft old bat is going for a third attempt tomorrow by separating a section off the withdraw bill. All indications point to being rejected yet again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47740158

[Catfish]

Man with anti-Brexit badge detained at Gatwick. Link


Comments:
"I think I’m going to get one of these badges and wear it.
Since the country is trying to imitate the US I’ll immediately sue when treated that way."

"My own strong impression is the Brexit virus is incredibly strong in organisations like the Border Force and the police."

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Man with anti-Brexit badge detained at Gatwick. Link


Comments:
"I think I’m going to get one of these badges and wear it.
Since the country is trying to imitate the US I’ll immediately sue when treated that way."

"My own strong impression is the Brexit virus is incredibly strong in organisations like the Border Force and the police."

Can not view, get greeted with please subscribe window.

[Reece]

Originally Posted by Catfish

"My own strong impression is the Brexit virus is incredibly strong in organisations like the Border Force and the police."

What did you say STEED, "Lets hope the virus spreads!"

[STEED]

Originally Posted by Reece

What did you say STEED, "Lets hope the virus spreads!"

I'm going to build a beautiful wall around parliament.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by STEED

Can not view, get greeted with please subscribe window.

Also at BBC, but not as much info: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-47724095

And here: Meet the man 'detained at Gatwick for wearing an anti-Brexit badge'
"The referendum was illegal and corrupt. The British government even admitted it was, but because it was advisory, they carried on with it", he said. "To me, it is a travesty."

quote from Steed:

I'm going to build a beautiful wall around parliament.

And i bet it will be huuuuuuge

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by JU_88

[...] Fact is nobody knows with absolute certainty what the economic effects of brexit will be [...]

Yep and some good arguments, although i don't believe in all of them

Brexit was "won" by manipulating xenophobia, and using hate. It was not about the economy. Lies, lies and more lies.
Theresa May lost the brexit vote because it was a lie. She was tasked with negotiating a deal that neither she nor anyone else could deliver on.

Some of those who publicly promoted brexit and then ran away:
- John Redwood advised his clients to get their money out of the UK
- Lord Lawson has become a permanent french resident
- Jacob Rees-Mogg moved his business to Dublin to stay in the free market
- Lord Ashcroft told british companies to move to Malta to stay in the EU
- Sir Jim Ratcliffe moved his billions to Monaco

^ So it is obvious that not all will have problems, they leave it to those left in the UK.

B.t.w. I have some business with Standard Life insurance, guess where they just moved? Hint: Out of England.

[Jimbuna]