Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

In a Bundestag debate Scholz ruled out that there would ever be NATO ground troops sent to Ukraine, or that Germany would hand over combat aircraft to Ukraine. Germany wills send 14 Leopards, one company.


A speaker of the Bundeswehr association said the tansk are good for Ukraine, but their loss for the Bundeswehr would reduce Germany'S own defence capability even further, because since the Zeitenwende speech by Scholz nothing has happened to counter the downward trend: no orders for new tanks or ammunitions have been placed. An order for the F-35 wa spalced recently, and the totla ammoutn of buying power of the special budget saw its reduction by inflaiton by 10-15%.



"Zeitenwende"...? Not in sight. To the relief of many in the SPD, I suppose.

[Jimbuna]

Hammer blow for Vladimir Putin as Ukraine to get 200 tanks from West

The West is poised to send nearly 200 battle tanks to Ukraine in a potential hammer blow that could help Kyiv win its war against Vladimir Putin.

It came after Germany finally succumbed to weeks of international pressure and agreed to donate some of its Leopard 2 tanks.

Berlin also relented on allowing other countries, such as Poland, to re-export German-made Leopard 2s, which could happen within days.

Meanwhile, the United States dropped its opposition to sending M1 Abrams tanks - potentially dozens of them - in a major escalation of its involvement.

The UK has already become the first ally to pledge tanks to Ukraine, having said it would send 14 of its Challenger 2s.

Under international agreements, other countries must be granted permission by Berlin to send their Leopard 2s.

Officials in Kyiv have suggested a dozen nations were willing to donate a total of up to 100 of them, if given permission by the German government.

Germany itself was reportedly preparing to send 14 tanks, with Olaf Scholz, the country’s chancellor, expected to make an announcement as soon as Wednesday.

“Today, the chancellor made a decision that no one took lightly,” said Christian Duerr, parliamentary leader of the co-governing Free Democrats. “The fact that Germany will support Ukraine with the Leopard tank is a strong sign of solidarity.”

US officials suggested their plans were being finalised, with options to send up to 50 Abrams. An announcement is expected later this week.

It brought the total number of tanks Kyiv can expect to have at its disposal to nearly 200, with potential for more.

Meanwhile, Switzerland, which has a long-held tradition of neutrality, appeared to be moving towards allowing other countries to re-export Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine - including Piranha tanks and anti-aircraft guns.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, has long pleaded for tanks, which would be key to punching through Russian defences in a Ukrainian counter-offensive to regain its territory.

Andriy Yermak, his chief of staff, said: “This is going to become a real punching fist of democracy against the autocracy from the bog."

Kirill Mikhailov, a Kyiv-based military researcher, told The Telegraph that deliveries of tanks on that scale could "change the course of the war".

He said: “We’ve already passed the end of the beginning. What you need now is to be able to replenish the Ukrainians to the point where the Russians will constantly be on the retreat.”

He said the US would be likely to settle on 50 Abrams, adding: "It is the minimum that makes sense logistically on the battlefield."

Sending less would mean the Abrams’ "usefulness would outweigh their strain on logistics chains".

The developments resolved a period of protracted friction over the issue of sending tanks, which had exposed a diplomatic rift in the Western alliance.

US officials had maintained that Abrams tanks were unsuitable for use in Ukraine because they are difficult to operate and maintain, require extensive training and need frequent refuelling.

They have long believed Germany's Leopard 2s were a better fit, because they have interchangeable parts and are easy to maintain.

However, Mr Scholz had refused to allow their use, saying Berlin would not "go alone".

The White House and Pentagon were caught off guard by the strength of the German reluctance.

No agreement was reached in a meeting of 50 Allied defence ministers at the US air base in Ramstein, Germany, on Friday.

But following intense behind-the-scenes negotiations, including one senior US official reportedly "reading the riot act" to his German counterpart, a transatlantic tank deal appeared to have been struck.

US officials cautioned that there had been no final decision in Washington, but their position was softening and a "significant" number of Abrams could now be sent.

Shortly before the German and US reversals emerged, Chris Coons, a Democrat senator and a close ally of Joe Biden, the US president, told Politico: "If the Germans continue to say we will only send or release Leopards on the condition that Americans send Abrams, we should send Abrams."

It could take months to deliver the 70-ton Abrams tanks and train Ukrainian forces in how to use them.

However, the change in US position appears to have helped to unlock the German resistance.

Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, called on Berlin "not to procrastinate, not to delay, but just to take brave decisions".

He said Berlin's longstanding purchases of Russian energy meant they had a "special responsibility" in the conflict.

In a further sign of a break in the deadlock, Berlin suggested that nations willing to donate their Leopards could begin training Ukrainian crews.

It came as Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general - who was meeting Boris Pistorius, the German defence minister, for talks in Berlin - said he was "confident" of a tank deal.

The US has already authorised the sending of Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Stryker armoured personnel carriers, which the Pentagon believes are better suited for the challenge in Ukraine.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said the new tank deliveries “would bring nothing good to the future relations”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...65655c75b079a5

[Jimbuna]

Putin's forces floundering as 'experimental' tank rushed out despite poor performance

Russia is preparing to rush the deployment of the country's most advanced battle tanks to the war in Ukraine. Frontline forces are reported to have had mixed first impressions after seeing the T-14 in operation, with the tanks described as being in very poor condition.

Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has previously described the production of the T014 as "an experimental-industrial batch" after acknowledging problems with the engine and thermal imaging system.

An MoD intelligence report on Wednesday said: "As previously reported, Russia has worked to prepare a small number of T-14 Armata main battle tanks for the type's first operational deployment in Ukraine.

"However, in recent months, deployed Russian forces were reluctant to accept the first tranche of T-14 allocated to them because the vehicles were in such poor condition.

"It is unclear exactly what aspects of the vehicles prompted this reaction, but within the last three years, Russian officials have publicly described problems with the T-14's engine and thermal imaging systems.

"In 2021, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu described the planned production run for 2022 as only an 'experimental-industrial' batch. Therefore, it is unlikely that any deployed T-14 tanks will have met the usual standards for new equipment to be deemed operational."
It comes as dozens of Nato's modern battle tanks are to be sent to Ukraine to bolster the fight against Vladimir Putin's invasion, ending weeks of diplomatic deadlock over the supply of armour to the country.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz approved the supply of the Leopard 2 to Kyiv, which would also allow other allies operating the tanks to re-export them.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said it was the "right decision", and the move would bolster Ukraine's "defensive firepower".

In response to Germany's announcement, Mr Sunak said: "The right decision by Nato allies and friends to send main battle tanks to Ukraine.

"Alongside Challenger 2s, they will strengthen Ukraine's defensive firepower.

"Together, we are accelerating our efforts to ensure Ukraine wins this war and secures a lasting peace."

The US is also expected to send around 30 of its M1 Abrams tanks to the warzone.

The UK had already become the first Western nation to promise main battle tanks, with around 14 Challenger 2s pledged by Mr Sunak.

In response to Germany's announcement, Mr Sunak said: "The right decision by Nato allies and friends to send main battle tanks to Ukraine.

"Alongside Challenger 2s, they will strengthen Ukraine's defensive firepower. Together, we are accelerating our efforts to ensure Ukraine wins this war and secures a lasting peace."

Meanwhile, defence analyst Nicholas Drummond had told Express.co.uk that the UK military must be armed with state-of-the-art armour amid fears its aging and hollowed-out tank force could be unable to prevail against modern foes.

Mr Drummond said: "Right up until 24 February last year, people were saying that tanks were a 'sunset capability'. A year later, people realise that tanks remain a fundamental engine of modern warfare because nothing else provides the brute force shock effect that tanks offer.

"If you want to destroy an enemy force or recapture lost ground, you need a tank. While tanks are vulnerable to anti-tank missiles, they are not as vulnerable as unprotected soldiers are to artillery.

"This means armies need armoured vehicles of all types to prevail on today's battlefield."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...5822a08671aaf6

[Exocet25fr]

Soledar is falling

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/25/w...r-retreat.html

[Jimbuna]

Russia 'almost' in all-out war with Ukraine's Western allies

Russia is "almost" in an all-out war with Ukraine's Western allies.

The Kremlin's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov made the remarks on a visit to South Africa as the war with Ukraine approaches its first anniversary.

Lavrov claims that the West has been planning to eradicate Russian "language" and "culture" for decades and that the war in Ukraine is the stage for them to carry out the plot.

He said in a press conference: "When we speak about what is happening in Ukraine - it is a war, not a hybrid one, almost a real war, that the West has been plotting for a long time against Russia.

"The goal is to destroy everything Russian, from language to culture, that has been in Ukraine for centuries and to prohibit people from speaking their mother tongue."

Lavrov claimed that Moscow wanted to negotiate with Kyiv in the early weeks of the conflict but they were prevented by Ukraine's Western allies.

Russian president Vladimir Putin made similar remarks about the conflict without any evidence last year.

Lavrov said: "It is well known that we supported the proposal of the Ukrainian side to negotiate early in the special military operation and by the end of March, the two delegations agreed on the principle to settle this conflict.

"It is well known and was published openly that our American, British, and some European colleagues told Ukraine that it is too early to deal, and the arrangement which was almost agreed was never revisited by the Kyiv regime."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...10259127272d3f

[Skybird]

FOCUS analyses:
-------------------
A coup by Scholz - for which he pays a triple price

Half pulled, half sank - is the tank deal really a success for Olaf Scholz? What can be learned from this historic decision. And what not.

Possibly the most important sentence this time comes from Andrijk Melnyk, the much-maligned in Germany: "A tank double whammy from the chancellor." This was how Ukraine's deputy foreign minister, with intimate knowledge of Germany from his years as ambassador in Berlin, commented on the Western Allies' agreement to send Leopards to the war victim after all.

The double whammy of Melnyk's military double whammy is having convinced the Americans to send Abrams battle tanks to the Ukrainian front in their turn. In fact, the Americans - more precisely, the military leadership - had refused to deliver the Abrams - with specious arguments, more on that in a moment.

Without American tank deliveries, there would be no German tank deliveries - this was the joke Olaf Scholz had made. It was a high risk, and Germany will probably have to pay a price for it. The risk is that this maneuver will nevertheless call into question the American loyalty to the alliance, which is beyond doubt. Indirectly, but undoubtedly. Why?

Scholz's "logic" went like this: If the Russians were to escalate and attack Germany in response to German Leo deliveries, however, it would not be clear until the American Abrams delivery that the Americans would protect Germany from Russia. The explosiveness arises from the reverse conclusion: without U.S. Abrams, no more American protection for Germany.

It will not be possible to find out exactly how it was, perhaps not for years. Did the Americans push the Germans or did the Germans push the Americans? And what game did Poland play? Who was informed about what and when? And: Did Russian threats play a role in all this - or not?

Each of these questions is important, strategic conclusions arise from each answer. It is all the more painful when, as a journalist, you have to write down that you don't know, or not precisely enough.

What can be said is that the initial American refusal to deliver Abrams was specious. The justification, for example, that the Abrams was not logistically suitable because it runs on aviation fuel was a smokescreen. First of all, the Abrams also runs on diesel, just like the Leopards, in Australia, and secondly, the Poles ordered Abrams, 366 of them, 116 used and 250 new. Why would Abrams work in Poland, but not in Ukraine?

What else can be said is that the Americans, although they supply by far the most, are also hesitant, not only lastly about the Abrams. They have supplied Ukraine with defensive missiles with only a short range - 80 kilometers instead of 300. The goal behind this: To prevent Ukraine from attacking military targets on Russian territory.

Most recently, the "Washington Post" also reported that Americans and Ukrainians had intense discussions about Crimea. Are we to believe that the Russians would prevent the Ukrainians from retaking the strategically important peninsula with nuclear missiles? The Ukrainian goal of ousting the Russians "completely" from territory occupied in violation of international law does not seem to be as self-evident to the Americans as has been publicly claimed.

What can also be said: Scholz wanted to keep Biden in the game, more than that: to keep him in the game as a demonstrative leading power. There are several reasons for this. One is so that Germany would not be primarily responsible for the Western allies in Ukraine. The second is that the Russians know that, too. But Germany also has to pay a price for this, and so does Scholz:

The latter's claim to be a "leading power" has come to an end. Not only that: The claim that the Europeans must all organize their own security together has also come to an end. Germany's security and the security of Europeans from Russian aggression is guaranteed by America. The leading power is the USA, and will remain so for years, if not decades.

One can find this reassuring or disturbing. "Europeans" will find it disturbing, "transatlanticists" reassuring. In any case, the war in Ukraine teaches that Europeans cannot defend themselves alone as long as there is no European army including European nuclear missiles. That sounds martial, and it is.

Scholz will now say that he did what was necessary. And he did. However: very late and under pressure. The chancellor can justify the delay. Ever since the war began almost a year ago, neither Germany nor the United States has gone "all in." From day one, the tactic has been "trial and error" - deliver something and then see how the Russians react to it first.


This can also be studied in the short history of battle tank deliveries, which took place on an ascending defensive-offensive line. First the Gepard was sent to Ukraine, then the Marder, and only then the Leopard.

Scholz's tactics came at a double price: His hesitation fed doubts among allies in Eastern Europe, Poland and the Baltic states about Germany's reliability as an ally. Scholz, who wants to be European after all, is driving the Eastern Europeans into the arms of the Americans.

What can finally be said is that if this is a success of Scholz, it was his second success since the beginning of the war. The first is the final document of the recent G-20 summit, which not only condemned nuclear war, but the threat of it at once. The document was signed by the Russians - and the Chinese, no doubt at Scholz's insistence. Even if it is in the self-interest of the Chinese, who want to continue to trade intensively with the countries of the West.

Conclusion: Late, but still - Ukraine is being helped to help itself. And thus also us.

--------------------------------------

[Jimbuna]

Wagner Group to be crippled by US as country tipped to use ‘all appropriate tools'

Russia's Wagner Group faces a major threat from the White House today which said it would "pursue" the recently outlawed mercenary group with "every appropriate tool". Ned Price, a spokesperson for the US Department of State, said the US will hit the groups operations in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world.

His remarks come as the paramilitary group faces Western backlash in light of claims the paramilitary group had been buying arms from North Korea.

The US plans to hit Wagner with new sanctions to cut off the group's funding and is expected to take more action in the near future, the White House confirmed last week.

Mr Price said in a public briefing today: "We are going to use every appropriate tool to pursue the Wagner Group, to attempt to counter its destabilizing actions, its destabilising influence - again in the Ukrainian context and more broadly as well."

Earlier in the briefing, Price highlighted an earlier round of sanctions in March 2022 which aimed to limit funds to the paramilitary group leader's Internet Research Agency which he said was used to "propagate his global influence operations".

The latest tranche of sanctions on Wagner are set to freeze any assets Wagner Group has in the States and ban Americans from providing funds, goods, or services.

Wagner is thought to have bought weapons including ballistic missiles and rockets from North Korea.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the group, recently sent a letter to the White House denying these claims, said Price.

The letter is said to have arrived shortly after the government leaked satellite images of a Russian train on route to North Korea to pick up an arms order.

Last week, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby commented on the leaked information.

He said: "On November 19, North Korea loaded the railcars with shipping containers, and the train returned to Russia.

"While we assess that the amount of material delivered to Wagner has not changed battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, we expect that it will continue to receive North Korean weapons systems."

Kirby also accused them of "committing atrocities and human rights abuses in Ukraine".

There is a documented history of Wagner's involvement in human rights violations in the Central African Republic, one of the areas where it operates.

Torture, disappearances, executions and rape are some of the atrocities recorded by United Nations investigators.

Fighters trained by Wagner in Sudan were also accused of killing over 100 protestors in the capital Khartoum.

Wagner mercenaries are understood to be working in the former French colony to protect the poor country's regime.

They cover up their brutal actions with giant propaganda campaigns, France 24 reported.

It is often paid in mineral resources for its work.

Its boss Prigozhin was indicted by the US Department of Justice for financing troll farms said to have interfered with the US election in 2016.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...08250d4e32961d

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Next package of EU sanctions against Russian Federation will be most severe, - Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland expects that the next package of EU sanctions against Russia will be the most severe.

This was stated by the Deputy Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Pavel Jablonskyi, Censor.NET reports with reference to Euro Integration.

Permanent Representative of Poland to the EU Andrzej Sados said earlier that the work in Brussels on the 10th package of EU sanctions against Russia and another against Belarus has slowed down. The European Commission has not yet proposed new restrictions. "Poland is disappointed by the lack of proposals from the commission." - said Sadosh.

Jablonski said the diplomatic process was ongoing and that Poland hoped the adopted package would be "as strict and tough as possible." According to him, the previous packages of sanctions covered more and more industries and spheres, after which it became clear that "new ways of circumventing sanctions are constantly appearing."

"Today we are focusing on sealing this process, that is, that any entity that is involved in circumventing sanctions (...) will also be subject to these sanctions. This is the direction in which we are moving now, this is what currently being discussed in Brussels". - he said.

Asked if Hungary is a brake on the introduction of new sanctions, he said that "unfortunately, there are even more brakes." "There are countries that would very much like to appear as if they always stand up for values, always oppose aggression, they go very far in their declarations, but when it comes to concrete decisions, this determination is already weakening and this freedom, of course, is becoming much more , much less." - he said.

Yablonsky estimated that there are always certain interest groups that try to dilute and weaken sanctions in order to continue making money from business related to Russia. He added that there is always some compromise at the end of the process when forming sanctions packages.

The latest, ninth package of EU sanctions was adopted in December. Although the member states, which are in favor of strengthening the sanctions policy against Russia, were not completely satisfied with this decision, its adoption was due to the belief that at the end of the year, the EU should demonstrate unity on this issue. As a result, some countries agreed to make concessions and give up some of their demands in order to reach a consensus.

As reported, on Wednesday the EU ambassadors approved the extension of all economic sanctions applied by the European Union against the Russian Federation for its aggression against Ukraine for the next 6 months. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395646

At critical moment of war, German tanks can help Ukraine defend itself and win, - Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the supply of tanks by Germany will allow Ukraine to win.

He announced this on Twitter, Censor.NET reports.

"I strongly welcome the leading role of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Germany in providing Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in consultation with other NATO members and partners. At a critical moment in the Russian war, they can help Ukraine defend itself, win and dominate as an independent state", - noted the Secretary General of the Alliance.

It will be recalled that earlier the German government announced that it would transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. At the first stage, Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks from the Bundeswehr. Other European partners will in turn transfer Leopard-2 tanks. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395649

Europe is preparing to transfer about 80 Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine, - Spiegel

At this stage, the European allies are discussing the joint transfer to Ukraine of a total of 80 Leopard-2 main battle tanks to form two battalions of 40 vehicles.

As reported Censor.NET with reference to Euro Integration, this was written by Spiegel.

It is already officially known that Germany will provide a company of 14 Leopard-2 A6 tanks from the Bundeswehr's warehouses at the first stage. Obviously, these tanks should be part of the same battalion, which should be part of the "Leopards" from Finland, Spain and the Netherlands - all of them also modification 2 A6.

The second battalion is supposed to be formed by "Leopards" from Poland and Norway, which have Leopard-2A4.

It should be noted that neither Finland, nor Spain, nor Norway have yet officially confirmed that they are ready to help by transferring tanks.

Also, according to Spiegel, on the evening of January 25, US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are planning a joint telephone conversation to coordinate further steps regarding the tanks. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395629

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Biden says US will send 31 M1 tanks.

[August]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Hawaii is a long way from the Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Two more Bayraktar TB2 drones will be transferred to Ukraine for free, The Baykar company said. https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/s...50734386548736

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by August

Hawaii is a long way from the Ukraine.

I think they're intent is to make a nuisance of themselves.