Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

According to Russian media as of 01/01/2023

Wagner:
- 38,244 recruited from the penal system.
- 29,543 missing, dead or captured
- 106 completed contract, released

This is 77% loss rate. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status...30287118221313

20–30% is an often used back of napkin figure for declaring a unit 'combat ineffective'.

[mapuc]

Want to share this documentary "Winter on Fire"



The reason why it has this age thing is because of the violent that is being shown in this video

This documentary follows the demonstrators from Nov. 2013 and forward until Feb. 2014.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Want to share this documentary "Winter on Fire"

...

The reason why it has this age thing is because of the violent that is being shown in this video

This documentary follows the demonstrators from Nov. 2013 and forward until Feb. 2014.

Markus

You see in this documentary the same determination of the Ukrainians as we now see in this war no authoritarian government could suppress their longing for freedom then, neither can Putin now.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

You see in this documentary the same determination of the Ukrainians as we now see in this war no authoritarian government could suppress their longing for freedom then, neither can Putin now.

I copied your comment and posted it in a livestream I did this because you are so correct..

Ukraine will win this war

Here is an Report from ISW
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...anuary-11-2023

Markus

[Skybird]

Rheinmetall now says it has 22 Leopard 2 and 88 Leopard 1 tanks in stock, and that their preparation for wartime use will take until next year, so they cannot be delivered until early next year. Since this would cost several 100 million euros, it would not be possible to pre-finance such a large project without formally awarding a contract, as had been done with Marders, for example.

This is astonishing, since Rheinmetall had said in the spring of last year that it could deliver the Leopard by early fall of 2022 if a contract were awarded in the spring. Now they say they need twice as long.

Thus, Germany is not in a position to support Ukraine with leopards this year from discarded stocks. The only option would be to send vehicles actively in service with the Bundeswehr and then replace them in a year's time with refurbished reserve Leopards.

I don't dare to predict whether this will be done, because the Bundeswehr's clear levels, i.e. how many existing vehicles are actually operational at the moment, are devastatingly low in the Army and the Air Force. For example, of the remaining Panzerhaubitzen 2000 the BW has, just about a third are operatonal: around 40. Transport helicopters, Eurofighters - dont get me started again.

I would guess, if anything, that even the Germans won't have more than one company to give, possibly shortened, that's about what the British annoucned to give, ten Challengers. And Germany does not have that many Leopard-2s in service anyway.

So the most important thing that can happen is that Germany does no longer prevent other Leopard customers from exporting a few of theirs. That Germany will send Leopards until spring this year is doubtful for me. Frankly speaking, I would not send any from Buindeswehr stocks - the German army is simply in an already lousy condition. I have relied on industry claims from the spring. But maybe this time the German government surprises me. I would support a decision to send active BW stocks, but my applause would be muted for the reasons mentioned.

How few vehicles and aircrafts are actually operational in the German armed forces, I have reported about it in the last years in other places again and again mockingly. A laughing stock. German ydeserves to gets panked for its "defence polciy", althouth most iof not all others acted the same way: shreddering defence budgets to pieces.



If the Ukrainians get Leopards, they will end up with a wild mix of different versions. Have a Happy Logistics-day...

[Jimbuna]

Putin humiliated as Russian troops vote to head home in secret military poll

Russian army officers delivered a damning verdict on Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, as they voted to down arms and go home in a secret poll. Putin's army has been involved in fierce fighting in the Donbas, as it tries to secure control over the entire resource rich region. On Friday Russia's Ministry of Defence claimed the city of Soledar had fallen to the Kremlin's troops and that the noose was tightening on Bakhmut.

Kyiv insisted that the city was still not fully under Russian control and that pockets of resistance remained. If Soledar has fallen, then this would be the first major battlefield success for Russia's commanders since the summer and should provide a huge boost to army morale.

However, Russian soldiers appear far from convinced that they should be waging war in Ukraine, according to a secret poll carried out by a brigade commander. A prominent Russian military blogger, Vladen Tatarsky, wrote on his Telegram channel that the commander asked his officers whether they wanted to kill Ukrainians every day.

To his dismay all but one indicated that they would rather not and would "prefer to go on vacation, and stay alive". Tatarsky said the sole officer in favour of war dreamt only of how to kill the enemy day and night.

He described his appearance as being similar to that of North Korea's brutal dictator, Kim Jong-un. The military blogger added: "Our victory will come faster if the system in the army is built in such a way that people like our Kim Jong-un will rise through the ranks.

"I am sure that this moment should become a priority in the reform of the Armed Forces." Russian troops continue to suffer from poor morale and to desert their units in high numbers, as they attempt to avoid being killed in fighting.

A study carried out by the Russian media outlet Vyorstka detected a huge increase recently in searches for "how to surrender" on Yandex.

Yandex ís a Russian search engine widely used by people in the country and sometimes preferred to Google.

The researchers found that in the week between November 28 to December 4, over 66,000 queries were made using the phrase "how to surrender". This compares with an average of 10,000 such searches per week during the previous five months.

Vyorstka noted that the increase in searches in November coincided with the arrival of large groups of mobilised soldiers to the front and reports of significant losses among them.

At the same time, video messages from troops and their relatives began to appear, in which they complained that conscripts soldiers were being thrown "like meat" into the fighting.

It comes as Russian soldiers based in Belarus fled their barracks near Minsk with weapons.

Military authorities launched a search for the deserters, setting up checkpoints on surrounding roads.

Locals reported: "There is a checkpoint at the exit to the city on the Zaslavl-Kolodishchi road, not everyone is checked, selectively.

"Near the Hippo store on this highway, there is a bus with military men in camouflage."

At the same time, conscripted soldiers posted another video message to social media, complain about their treatment.

The soldiers come from the Belgorod region and were trained as artillerymen.

Despite this, they were sent in as infantry to be used as cannon fodder.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...c930a50d38187e

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Russian Federation may resort to raising conscription age in opposition to new wave of mobilization, - British intelligence

According to British intelligence, the change in age criteria for regular conscription in the Russian Federation may seem less alarming to the population there compared to a new round of "partial mobilization."

This is stated in the intelligence review of the British Ministry of Defense, Censor.NET reports.

British intelligence reminds that on January 12, 2023, Andrii Kartapolov, chairman of the Russian State Duma's defense committee, suggested that the Russian Federation would increase the upper conscription age from 27 to 30 years before the spring conscription of 2023.

Kartapolov said the move would be aimed at securing the previously announced 30% increase in the size of the Russian armed forces.

Last year, President Putin said he supported such a move, and Russian officials are likely studying public reaction.

"There is a real possibility that Russian leaders hope that changing the age criteria for regular conscription can increase the number of personnel available to participate in combat operations in Ukraine, while at the same time appearing less disturbing to the population than announcing another round of the unpopular process of "partial mobilization," the review says. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3393408

Georgia will not provide military aid to Ukraine, - Deputy Prime Minister Tsulukiani

Georgia will not provide military aid to Ukraine, as it does not want to be involved in the conflict.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to TASS, this was stated by Deputy Prime Minister Teja Tsulukiani.

"The Georgian authorities will not allow the Georgian state to be involved in the military confrontation, accordingly, of course, we will not be able to provide military-type assistance to one of the parties to the confrontation (Ukraine. - Ed.).
Moreover, as far as I know, it is about the transfer of such weapons that we bought," she said.

The Deputy Prime Minister added that Georgia has experienced many armed conflicts and the government must prevent this from happening again. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3393422

Ukraine is considering possible role of Turkey as patron country, - Lubinets

Ukraine wants to grant Turkey the status of a patron state in the war against Russia.

This was stated by Dmytro Lubinets, the human rights representative of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"We are also considering the possible role of Turkey as a patron country, which is also stipulated in the Geneva Conventions.
In fact, now, when there is a war, there is no platform where any negotiations can be held, Turkey is constantly offering it. Various issues can be resolved through the patronage state, and Turkey can effectively fulfill this role. The Geneva Conventions allow you to do this and even have not only one patron country, there can be up to five of them. We are also considering such an option," Lubinets said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3393440

[August]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Risk of Putin using nuclear weapons is low, - Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg does not think that the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons is low.

He stated this in an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration".

Regarding the risk of nuclear escalation, which was repeatedly pointed out by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Stoltenberg said: "The risk of using nuclear weapons is low."

According to him, China and other countries have sent a signal to Russia "that nuclear weapons should not be used."

At the same time, Stoltenberg spoke out for a critical assessment of Chinese investments: "We must not repeat the mistake we made with Russian gas. Too much dependence on an authoritarian regime for the supply of raw materials or critical goods makes us vulnerable." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3393487

Stoltenberg on supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine: "I expect more in near future"

Ukraine can count on increased supplies of heavy weapons from Western countries in the near future.

This was stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper, Censor.NET reports with reference to "European Truth".

Kyiv has long pushed for heavier weapons, including tanks, but Western countries have been reluctant to comply, citing fears of being drawn into a war or provoking Russia.

"The recent pledges to provide heavy combat equipment are important - and I expect more in the near future," Stoltenberg said.

These comments were made on the eve of the meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine, which coordinates the supply of weapons to Kyiv, which will take place next week at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

"We are in a decisive phase of the war," Stoltenberg said. "Therefore, it is important that we provide Ukraine with the weapons necessary for victory," he emphasized.

Earlier this month, France, Germany and the US pledged to provide French AMX-10 RC light tanks, 40 German Marder BMPs and 50 Bradley fighting vehicles.

However, pressure is mounting on the Allies to go further and agree to the supply of battle tanks.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Saturday pledged to provide Ukraine with 14 Challenger 2 tanks, making it the first Western country to supply the heavy tanks that Kyiv has been pushing for.

Stoltenberg said that Russian President Vladimir Putin made a mistake by attacking Ukraine.

"He overestimated the strength of his own armed forces. We see their mistakes, lack of morale, leadership problems, poor equipment," he said.

But the Russians have "demonstrated that they are ready to bear great losses to achieve their goals," so Russia should not be underestimated. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3393485

[mapuc]

Would Putin satisfied with losing face in his defeat in Ukraine ?

Some of you have said that this is the worst thing which could happen to a Russian leader-Losing his face in front of his people.

If or When UAF takes Crimea-it will be a big smack in his face..

I myself fear Russia will in the end use Tactical nukes on Ukraine soil.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Would Putin satisfied with losing face in his defeat in Ukraine ?

Some of you have said that this is the worst thing which could happen to a Russian leader-Losing his face in front of his people.

If or When UAF takes Crimea-it will be a big smack in his face..

I myself fear Russia will in the end use Tactical nukes on Ukraine soil.

Markus

Putin is carrying out a genocidal project in Ukraine, his invasion aims to deny Ukraine existence as a state, the Russians do not think like us. With our Western, Cartesian, logical brains, we now see their invasion of Ukraine as a failure. We think Putin has no choice but to withdraw. But Putin thinks he can take Kiev even if it costs him two years and 200- to 500,000 dead Russian soldiers. The death toll leaves him indifferent.

His priority now is his personal political survival and power, then the deployment of apocalyptic weapons such as nuclear warheads. Deep down, Putin is a cowardly man. You can see this in how he always sits at long tables, keeping everyone far away from him, for fear of a virus or attack. He is very paranoid. Remember, his security chiefs tell him weekly that they foiled assassination plans from the West. Nonsense, of course, but he believes it. Not his scruples keep him from pushing the button. He has already killed tens of thousands of Ukrainians, but the thought that he himself could die if there is retaliation after a nuclear deployment.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Would Putin satisfied with losing face in his defeat in Ukraine ?
Some of you have said that this is the worst thing which could happen to a Russian leader-Losing his face in front of his people.

Who cares? I hope he does not only lose his face.

[...] I myself fear Russia will in the end use Tactical nukes on Ukraine soil. Markus

I think he won't. Sure he loves to escalate, but this would make him a pariah also in the eyes of China, and he cannot afford a two-front war.
If he does also people in St. Peterburg and Moscow will feel how it is being at war.
I almost wish he would.