Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

I stick to what I say about this war since almost three years now. Its not so much about wether Russia can win the war, but whether Ukraine can hold out as long as the Russians can. There is no doubt that both sides suffer heavy losses - BOTH sides. And there is no doubt that Russian losses are heavier than Ukrainian losses. But is the difference such that Russia will run out of steam before Ukraine, or not? The Ukrainians make the Russians pay. But not decisively so so far. And their own losses hurt them more than the Russians are hurt by theirs, becasue Russia can better digest them, has a significantly greater personnel pool.

And one question lurks in the background nobody has an answer to for sure. Will Russia, when it sees it cannot win conventionally anymore really just call it quits and stop - or will it put out the real big, the nuclear sticks next? Everybody rules that out, but I have not heard a reasonable, a convincing argument for that otimism so far. Hence nobody prepares for that scenario, basing on "it cannot be what I do not want to be".


Hence everybody seems to refuse preparing an answer for this worst case. Russia escalates since three years, even against NATO states themselves. Russia'S only reaction to anythign ALWAYS was to escalate even further. See recent events in the Baltic. They do so under the eyes of NATO, and NATO lets them get away with it. The Russian leadership is trapped in its narration, cant walk out of it anymore. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy now.

So here it is: "What will the West do once the first Russian nuke explodes on Ukrainian soil? What options, what readied options that are realistically possible, will form the reaction of the West then?

Mind you, Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine in such a way that from it it can take that using nukes in wars of aggression that take foreign land are allowed. They only must call the targetted land "Russian land", anbd forn that they only need a group of Russians living the smallest of the small coimmuntiies already suffice for this defitnion as a "Russian land that must be defended". They could invade Poland and the Czech Republic and even Germany , and by that doctrine it still would be a defensive war against their victim's aggression. And thats exactly what Putin did with Ukraine form all beginning on: denying its right to self-exiostence and claimin g it indeed is Russian land and is no separate ethnicity and culture, but is Russia. The Russian nuclear doctrine is not defensive, it is absolutely aggressive.

I do not say we should fall back here. We should carry on, so that must be clear. But we must prepare for the worst, we mjust maker answers ready for the case of "what if". Right now - we would seem to be totally helpless and "surprised" by this scenario.

And the US. Listen to Trumps whining wishy-washy babbling on that his best buddy Vladimir does not listen to him. Listen to Trumps reactions to the devastating air attacks of the past two or three nights, the heaviest in all the war so far. Listen to the deafening silence from Washington, and how the silence yells in the ear.

Nobody in the political realm has the worst possible scenario on his list of possibilities that could materialize. Not Europe. Not Trump. Not China.

Nobody.

[Reece]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

I have come to the conclusion, that I'm more ear to hear what I like to hear-
'It's going very well for the Ukrainian forces.'

Where is the truth in this massive flow of information, which is coming from the war in Ukraine ?

Can we trust these military experts ? They tell us different stuff. I think it Depends on what their beliefs are or their standpoint.

Only the future will tell us.

Markus

[Skybird]

[Reece]

[Reece]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Just for the record, Merz has not agreed to send Taurus to Ukraine, in fact doing that is not agreed on by a huge part of the coalition dominator SPD (thats the party that with 15% won last elections and now control the government and all money stuff). Scholz gave the range limitation as one alibi excuse why he would not send Taurus (range 500+ km), this "obstacle" now has been moved aside, but in fact was taken off the table by Western nations already months ago.

Taurus may or may not be delivered one day. And even if - the availability of Taurus in Germany is very limited, and Ukraine will never get the numbers needed to acchieve saturating tactical effect with it. So yes, it makes a loud Boom, and yes, it reaches farther than the other Western weapons so far - but it is neither a wonder weapon nor do I expect it to make a decisive change. Its just another Boom in this war's chorus.

The Kerch bridge is not that relevant anymore, too. Thinking they should waste several of these rare and thus: precious weapons to destroy it now, thinks three years too late. Railway around now Russian-held Mariupol has taken over the logistical relevance the bridge once had.

[Jimbuna]

France and Britain believe deployment of Western troops in Ukraine is still possible - FT

France and the United Kingdom believe that the plan to deploy a foreign contingent in Ukraine after the end of hostilities is still possible.

This was reported by the Financial Times newspaper, citing sources, Censor.NET reports.

"As Washington's commitment to Ukraine's security seems to be waning, French, British and German leaders are increasingly divided over how much military support can be provided to Ukraine after the war," the article says.

Thus, France and Britain, the two initiators of the so-called Coalition of the Willing, insist that the original plan to deploy troops to Ukraine is still feasible.

Other countries, including Germany, are more skeptical, as the US still has not promised to support the contingent.

The FT's sources say that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron continue to support the troop proposal to keep Europe engaged in ceasefire talks and to keep Ukrainian morale up.

They also want to demonstrate their commitment to US President Donald Trump.

One European official said that the troop plan is "dead" because it is "absurd without Trump's help, and he is unwilling to provide it."

However, a French diplomat denied that reports of the proposal's failure were "not only greatly exaggerated" but "absolutely untrue," adding that the countries were still working on plans "at a normal pace." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3554663

Kremlin on lifting long-range strike restrictions for Ukraine: This is serious escalation

The Kremlin labeled the decision by several countries to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons for long-range strikes as "a serious escalation."

This was stated by the spokesman for the Russian dictator, Dmitry Peskov, according to Russian media, as reported by Censor.NET.

"One way or another, if this is true, it constitutes an escalation — a serious escalation," Peskov said.

As a reminder, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently announced that the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the United States have lifted restrictions on the supply of military equipment to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil denied any change in the German government’s policy regarding the range limitations on Western weapons used to strike Russian territory. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3554642

[Jimbuna]

Putin is actively forming "new elite" among members of "SMO" - FISU

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is systematically depriving former oligarchs of their property and influence through repression, arrests and nationalization, forming a new political elite from the members of the so-called "SMO".

This is reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Censor.NET informs.

"After the start of a full-scale war against Ukraine, Putin has been actively forming a "new elite" among the members of the SMO, gradually marginalizing the old business elite. Repressions, arrests and nationalization are becoming tools of a political game in which oligarchs are losing influence and property," the FISU noted.

As noted, an example of this was the conflict between billionaire Alexei Mordashov, owner of Severstal, and the governor of the Vologda region, Georgy Filimonov. After a ban on the use of migrants in construction, Filimonov accused Mordashov of being unpatriotic and cutting investments, which led to a purge of local authorities and the suspension of officials associated with Severstal.

The Kremlin's pressure was not limited to Vologda. In 2025, the founder of the Rusagro agricultural holding Vadim Moskovich, CEO of Blago Invest Dmitry Fosman, were detained and the process of nationalizing Domodedovo Airport, owned by Dmitry Kamenshchik, began.

According to the FISU, the Kremlin is not only increasing pressure on business, but is also actively managing the process of redistribution of economic influence. Businessmen are forced to demonstrate full political loyalty, otherwise they risk losing their property and freedom. Repression has become a common tool for controlling the economy, and conflicts between law enforcement agencies and oligarchs have become a new internal front for the Russian government. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3554648

Losses inRussian-Ukrainian war exceeded US losses in World War II, - Kellogg

Donald Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg said that the war in Ukraine has been going on for too long.

He said this on Fox News, Censor.NET reports.

"This war has been going on for too long. President Trump is absolutely right, we have to stop the killing. When you look at the numbers, this is mass murder. The losses on both sides are more than a million now, it's 1.2 million. It exceeds the losses of World War II," he said.

Kellogg also pointed to "indiscriminate shelling of cities".

According to statistics, the United States lost 418 thousand people in World War II. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3554637

German FM Wadephul on Taurus for Ukraine: "We must stay unpredictable with Putin"

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has stated that Germany will "act responsibly" when it comes to supplying weapons to Ukraine.

This was reported by Censor.NET, citing n-tv.

According to the minister, the German government is acting in a way that keeps it unpredictable to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

"Ukraine will be equipped for self-defense, but Germany will act responsibly. The CDU/CSU and SPD coalition remains united on this issue," the outlet quotes Wadephul as saying.

As a reminder, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently stated that the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the United States have lifted restrictions on military equipment deliveries to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil denied any change in the German government’s policy regarding the range limitations on Western weapons strikes inside Russian territory. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3554630

[Dargo]

If Putin doesn’t watch out, Trump might be forced to go ALL CAPS on him.

[Jimbuna]