Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

You need to consider the length of lines,. the size of grounds to be covered with the firepower you have.


Witho9ut American assets, NATO is not even worth half of what it is with the Americans.


Most militaries in NATO are not capable and ready to wage full blwon out military campaigns and wars. I would only consider the Americans, British, French (at least their legion) and Turks serious in this regard. And I mean real war, not just some political symbolic theatralism. There is a reason why the Americans like to have the Brits by their side for example, but see the Germans or Greek and others as a burden.

[mapuc]

Thank you les green01 and Skybird for your answer to my question.

I know les green01 is correct NATO isn't NATO without USA. An attack on a European NATO member will be an attack on USA and other members.

I'm not that much into military knowhow so Skybird could very well be correct in his statement.

His statement made me think.

Does Putin have these thoughts- Europe/NATO isn't interested in a conflict when it comes to a non-member country like Ukraine ?

Are the Russian sure that an invasion of Ukraine or part of the country will only lead to harsh verbal words from EU/NATO and nothing more ?

Then there is the ordinary persons view on this subject.

I for once are in no way interest in an all out conflict with Russia.

Markus

[Rockstar]

US considering sending warships to Black Sea amid Russia-Ukraine tensions
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/08/p...sea/index.html

The United States has notified Turkey that it intends to deploy two warships to the Black Sea amid rising tensions with Russia, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources said on Friday. Washington made the notification just over two weeks ago, as required under the Montreux Convention on passage through the Straits. The warships will stay in the Black Sea until 5 May. "One US warship will arrive on 14 April, and another on 15 April to the Black Sea. And they will leave on 4 May and 5 May, respectively," a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

If Ukraine launches a full-scale war in Donbass, Russia will be forced to defend its citizens, says Putin’s deputy chief-of-staff
https://www.rt.com/russia/520490-zel...ss-putin-aide/

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

On one hand Russia might feel provoked, on the other hand it might think it could have a walk-over and annex the rest of the Ukraine as easy as it did last time, "defending" the "real" russian population.
Strategically spoken, Ukraine is close to Bulgaria, Turkey and Syriah. But then Russia already has invaded parts of the Ukraine and "secured" Sevastopol for itself.

I'm not so sure Russia just arbitrarily invaded and secured Sevastopol for itself. Throughout history Crimea has been under the control of many nations. But the one country with the longest history in Crimea has for over 168 years been Russia. Even before Ukraine joined the Soviet Union Crimea, I think, belonged to Russia. It's administration was 'given' some say illegally by Khrushchev to Ukraine as a reward for joining Club Soviet.


Why the annexation took place because the Russians feel that Crimea belonged to them. After the coup d’état the was considered to have collapsed. Russia took quick action and moved back to Crimea.


This argument was formulated in the Statement of the Russian Association of Lawyers in the following way:

“We propose to proceed from a general principle of law, ex injuria non oritur jus meaning ‘law does not arise from injustice’.

There is no doubt that the cause of the tragic events in Ukraine was the forceful change of government in Kiev that occurred outside the constitutional framework as a result of illegal actions of radical elements in the Maidan movement whose participants largely comprise the current government in Kiev.

An unconstitutional coup has been committed, accompanied by forceful seizure of government bodies, illegal actions towards Ukraine’s Constitutional Court, and illegitimate countering of legitimate demands of law enforcement officers on the part of the armed ‘Maidanians’.

Removal from office of Ukrainian President proclaimed by the new, self-appointed leaders of Ukraine does not fit in any legal framework. A legal classification of so high a level is the exclusive right of the Ukrainian people only that should only be exercised according to the procedure set forth in the Ukrainian Constitution.

As it declared and decided to hold a referendum, the Supreme Council of Crimea referred to the United Nations Charter, which speaks of the right of nations to self-determination. Incidentally, I would like to remind you that when Ukraine seceded from the USSR it did exactly the same thing, almost word for word. Ukraine used this right, yet the residents of Crimea are denied it. Why is that?”

Still reading about the Donbass but it seems Russia and the former republics are still ironing things out since the break up of the Soviet union. But best I can tell Donbass Region has always been part of Ukraine. So instead of annexing Donabass, Russians opt to support 'separatists'. I think every effort should be made to support Ukraine here. Including Ukraine's right to choose to join NATO so they dont have to put up overt military aggression on their borders.


Considering what Russia has given the world, Totalitarian governments, Communist China and North Korea. I say we defend Ukraine.

[Catfish]

So "Turkey informed Russia"?

I guess Russia has its own surveillance system, maybe TASS only tells it to drive a wedge between Turkey and NATO?

https://tass.com/politics/1276195

[mapuc]

Do you think that NATO and/or EU will try to play the tough guy against Russia if Russia choose to intervene in the Ukrainian conflict ?

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

So "Turkey informed Russia"?

I guess Russia has its own surveillance system, maybe TASS only tells it to drive a wedge between Turkey and NATO?

https://tass.com/politics/1276195

I think it wise to announce the pending arrival of two U.S. warships in the Black Sea. Could you imagine the response had we tried sneak them in? Which considering the width of the Straits would be near impossible to do anyway.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Do you think that NATO and/or EU will try to play the tough guy against Russia if Russia choose to intervene in the Ukrainian conflict ?

Markus

Unlike the Crimea, I think the Donbass region has always been a part of Ukraine. Which I think why Russia relies on those poor freedom and democracy fighters for independence from Ukraine . Tuff titties though, I'm really not worried about provoking Russia on this one. Ukraine has every right to ask for help from NATO and defend it's security and borders from Russian backed separatists or overt armed military incursion. Putin;'s claim of defending ethnic Russians isn't much of an excuse to move Russian armed forces into the Donbass. They choose to live their if they dont like it they can move.


Would have been great if we at least tried to establish better relations to see what could be done. But I think instead as we move warships into the Black Sea we're on the road to armed conflict, we must listen to our generals they know best.

[Rockstar]

Then again maybe Ukraine isn't up for a fight. Things seem to be cooling.

original

https://ria.ru/20210409/donbass-1727582107.html


translation


https://translate.google.com/transla...727582107.html


--------


original


https://ria.ru/20210409/peremirie-1727618308.html


translation


https://translate.google.com/transla...727618308.html

[mapuc]

Thank you Rockstar for your reply.

Your last post eased my heart. I hate war it doesn't do anyone any good it only gives suffer and miserables

Yes the Ukrainian government has every right to ask NATO for assistance.

Is NATO obligated to through every thing they have in their hands and rush to the war scene ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is NATO obligated to through every thing they have in their hands and rush to the war scene ?

No.


That would be a thing, if foreign nations could blackmail NATO and order it to intervene on their behalf!



Not even article 5 of the NATO treaty uses formulations so clearly formulated that it would not leave backdoors open for opting out of the loyalty to the alliance if a member gets attacked. Weasel-language.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No.


That would be a thing, if foreign nations could blackmail NATO and order it to intervene on their behalf!



Not even article 5 of the NATO treaty uses formulations so clearly formulated that it would not leave backdoors open for opting out of the loyalty to the alliance if a member gets attacked. Weasel-language.

I hope things will cool down and they will find a solution.

I have this inner fear that NATO will in some way or other assist Ukraine, if Russia does intervene in the Donbass region.

Markus

[Skybird]

They already help. The US delivers weapons and systems since 2018, including missiles like Javelin. US military trainers are there since 2015.

But:
according to media reports from that year the Americans also learn from the Ukrainians as well, since the Ukrainians have combat experience with a conventional, highly advanced, technologically well equipped traditional military enemy being fought at close range on the ground that the Americans have not had in their recent adventures in the ME. Its russian doctrines and Russian drilled troops, no militias, rebels or underequipped part-time volunteers. And its Russian drones and precise artillery bombardment that the American trainers have been exposed to. New experiences, nothing known from Iraq or Afghanistan. This enemy can bite back - in strength. Americna trainers form that tiem said the expriences with the nUkrainians showed taiught them about a growing systematic ground combat competence deficit in the American military.

For example this Austrian polit magazine from 2015:
https://translate.google.com/transla...-lernen-konnen

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No.


That would be a thing, if foreign nations could blackmail NATO and order it to intervene on their behalf!



Not even article 5 of the NATO treaty uses formulations so clearly formulated that it would not leave backdoors open for opting out of the loyalty to the alliance if a member gets attacked. Weasel-language.

True that, there are safeguards already in place and have been for years now

Article 5 provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.

[Onkel Neal]

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/12/europ...nes/index.html

Would be pretty amazing if NATO waited until Russia launched this invasion into Ukraine and invaded Russia through Latvia.