UK Politics Thread

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

A "winning team" with Theresa May and Boris Johnson? well .

As I said, maybe not a winner'S dream team - but one with an absolute majority in parliament. Her position against the EU now is weaker than before. And she must fear a home front in parliament, enforcing concessions that soften up "hard Brexit". And the EU takes note of this vulnerability, thats a safe bet.

Jason Brennan could not get any better advertising for his books. I just have finished reading my second book by him, this time even in English. Britian was made to illustrate Brennan's points. :LOL:

Until German elections. Holy messy mass.

[Eichhörnchen]

Of course it's understandable that you guys on the continent will be focussed on Brexit, but Brexit only really preoccupies the finance and business communities over here now.

[STEED]

Originally Posted by STEED

Well here's my forecast..

Update comments

Conservative victory 5-30 seats. Well that was wrong

Labour mixed night and may just hang in there depending how well they do. I think this one is about right

LibDems will be lucky to keep their seats as for Tim saying 18 seats dream on. Well they are now on 12 not a breakthrough

UKIP will suffer the most no seats and a voter collapse. Spot on

Greens will probably keep their one seat due to back room deals and they too will loose votes. Spot on

SNP will remain the biggest winners in Scotland but will loose 10-20 seats. Not that far out down 21 seats

Plaid Cymru mixed night for them. No comment


Outside chance of a Hung Parliament with the Tories being the biggest. Well my outside chance was spot on

More chance of a alien invasion than a Hung Parliament with Labour being the biggest.

More chance of the end of the world than a Labour victory.

[Catfish]

@Eichkatz understood.. though the leaving will have some impact on everything, since a lot of laws and rules that are meanwhile self-evident all over Europe (also regarding inclusion), could all be changed now unless it violates other, international treaties. I heard that the UK will adopt all european laws after brexit (really?), and will then seek out and change certain ones as it sees fit. In the long run, of course.

I take it personal liberties and free travel will be the first casualties. We will see whether May or Farage rhetorics are more helpful than clear analysis and dedicated action of people knowing their stuff. A lot of Eu laws protected and helped also people in the UK, from tariffs, to workers rights, to infrastructure, archeological or science funding, just to name a few.
But since all seems to be expressed in war terms and hitlerisms over there, "London can take it".

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Eichhörnchen

Ding-dong, the witch is almost dead. So many voters have disability concerns; so many are homeowners moving rapidly towards old age; so many are now (of necessity) self-employed and faced with quarterly tax returns, National Insurance rises and effective expulsion from Universal Credit... wtf did she expect??

Originally Posted by Eichhörnchen

There was far more to this than Brexit; there were many domestic issues upon which the tories would have used a strong mandate to impose their will. Reducing help for the disabled; placing the burden of old-age care on the individual instead of considering equitable funding solutions; bullying of the self-employed (NI contributions, quarterly tax assessments and exclusion from Universal Credits). The British people suddenly became aware of what might be done to them at home. I don't think Brexit was then such a big issue.

Fully agree and whilst I admit hindsight is a wonderful thing I reckon she miscalculated on the response from the young and the older voters based much on what you've already posted.

I'll even go so far as to say....if it hadn't of been for Corbyn and his lack of appeal regarding defence, Labour might well have been in with a decent chance of snatching victory.

[STEED]

Well Mrs May rolled the dice and lost leaving her no option but to have this loose agreement with the DUP but there is another factor that seems to be over looked, SF has seven seats but as we all know they will not sit in HOC.

Well we have a weak government and the EU Wolfs and Tory Wolfs along with the opposition wolfs are going to make Mrs May's life a living hell. I would be surprised if she survived a year in office and could we be facing a another general election before 2022.

Has the tide turned against the SNP? Maybe.

So old JC hangs on in there but yet the result shows me the country wants Labour but not the current leadership or the loony wing within the party.

Nick Clegg...
Sarah Olney...

[STEED]

Just to add the Greens hold there one seat but their vote was down, as for UKIP now in intensive care on a last support machine as another leader steps down. If the UKIP don't make massive changes then they have sealed their fate. Brexit will not save them from the brink.

[Eichhörnchen]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'll even go so far as to say....if it hadn't of been for Corbyn and his lack of appeal regarding defence, Labour might well have been in with a decent chance of snatching victory.

That's got to be true. Plus, as you suggest, the young were galvanised this time as never before, with lots of them being turfed out to vote by their more active brethren over student loans.

@Catfish, Indeed Brexit will affect lots of things for us here in the long run, but at election time I think people are still more influenced by what they see immediately outside their own front door, i.e. will there be enough teachers at the kids' school today and are there some beds (not gurneys) to lay on at the local A&E.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by STEED

Well we have a weak government and the EU Wolfs and Tory Wolfs along with the opposition wolfs are going to make Mrs May's life a living hell. I would be surprised if she survived a year in office and could we be facing a another general election before 2022.

Should that come about and it may well, the Tories will learn from last nights mistake regarding a clear cut and costed manifesto, elect another leader and tidy up their policies bringing about a clear majority in government, especially if Corbyn clings on to power.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by STEED

Nick Clegg...
Sarah Olney...

You could add Alex Salmond, Angus Robertson (The SNP leader at Westminster) and nearly Amber Rudd (Home Secretary) whose majority was just 346 to the above.

Quite an eventful evening.

[MGR1]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'll even go so far as to say....if it hadn't of been for Corbyn and his lack of appeal regarding defence, Labour might well have been in with a decent chance of snatching victory.

Maybe, maybe not in certain cases. The analysis for Scotland suggests that SLab did well because of Corbyn rather than any innate qualities it had itself. In other words, the UK Labour manifesto appealed to many yes voters, particularly young ones.

I think what that indicates is that traditional Labour support in Scotland is indeed at the far left end of the party's support. I would actually say that Mhairi Black would be more at home in the Labour party than the Nats, it's just that Labour isn't left wing enough for her! But we all know that the Clyde Valley is pretty hard left by tradition - Red Clydeside and all that.

As for the North East... I wrote that Aberdeen North would stay SNP, I was right. I also remember posting this a while ago:

Originally Posted by MGR1

The simplest way to put it would be: the North East of Scotland voted SNP because Glasgow voted Labour. Now that Glasgow is voting for the SNP, the North East will start voting for someone else! It's also a former Unionist stronghold, so swinging back to the Tories is not outwith the realm of fiction.

Again I was right and it happened in some style unseating both Robertson and Salmond. No one expected Fat Eck to be turfed out so the SCons are right to be happy. Apart from Aberdeen North the NE is a sea of blue.

Mike.

[Skybird]

German newspaper titled: "May now is in a political PVS (persistent vegetative state: Wachkoma)."

The most correct description I found so far. The EU will enjoy profiling itself as a Zombie hunter.

[Jimbuna]

Should that be the case then the EU would be well advised to remember how the British people react in times of threats and adversity.

[Eichhörnchen]

Originally Posted by Skybird

German newspaper titled: "May now is in a political PVS (persistent vegetative state: Wachkoma)."

"100 POINTS!"

[Moonlight]