Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Skybird]

The "sanctions" are meaningless. Which is not that bad at all. The kind of sanctions hurting the Russians, would sooner or later backfire against ourselves - and hurt us more than the Russians if they decide to play the sanction-you-sanction-me game really tough.

What makes a difference is that the Crimea was highly depending on the Ukraine. Over 80% of its needed energy was delivered by the Crimea, trading good not even mentioned. Russia will need 3-5 years to establish bridges and road corridors from Russia to the Crimea.

For Russia, this will become a very expensive enterprise. Moscow will need to take over where the Ukraine now will refuse to deliver.

[Oberon]

12:24:
The parliament in Crimea has voted to take ownership of a key state-run Ukrainian energy company located in the region, our colleagues at BBC Monitoring report.
A resolution posted on the parliament's website says Chornomornaftohaz, a local oil and gas company, and the Crimean-based assets of Ukrtranshaz, Ukraine's main gas transit company, now belong to "the Republic of Crimea".

[Jimbuna]

I found this article interesting.

Russia 'planned Wall Street bear raid'
There is a cynicism in the relationship between Russia and the US, being played out in the Crimean crisis, which is deep, rooted in history and shows that the triumph of capitalism over communism wasn't the end of the power game between these two nations.

The depth of mistrust between the two was highlighted in the interview given by Hank Paulson, the former US treasury secretary, for my recent BBC Two documentary, How China Fooled The World.

The excerpts I am about to quote never made it into the film, because they weren't relevant to it. But they give a fascinating understanding of the complex relationship between Washington and Moscow.

Mr Paulson was talking about the financial crisis of the autumn of 2008, and in particular the devastation being wreaked on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two huge underwriters of American mortgages - huge financial institutions that had a funny status at the time of being seen by investors to be the liability of the US government, which in legal reality were not exactly that.

Here is Mr Paulson on the unfolding drama:

"When Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac started to become unglued, and you know there were $5.4tn of securities relating to Fanny and Freddie, $1.7tn outside of the US. The Chinese were the biggest external investor holding Fanny and Freddie securities, so the Chinese were very, very concerned."

Or to put it another way, the Chinese government owned $1.7tn of mortgage-backed bonds issued by Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, and it was deeply concerned it would incur huge losses on these bonds.

Mr Paulson: "I was talking to them [Chinese ministers and officials] regularly because I didn't want them to dump the securities on the market and precipitate a bigger crisis.

"And so when I went to Congress and asked for these emergency powers [to stabilize Fanny and Freddie], and I was getting the living daylights beaten out of me by our Congress publicly, I needed to call the Chinese regularly to explain to the Central Bank, 'listen this is our political system, this is political theatre, we will get this done'. And I didn't have quite that much certainty myself but I sure did everything I could to reassure them."

In other words, China had lent so much to the US that Mr Paulson needed to do his best to persuade its government and central bank that China's investment in all this US debt would not be impaired.

Now this is where we enter the territory of a geopolitical thriller. Mr Paulson:

"Here I'm not going to name the senior person, but I was meeting with someone… This person told me that the Chinese had received a message from the Russians which was, 'Hey let's join together and sell Fanny and Freddie securities on the market.' The Chinese weren't going to do that but again, it just, it just drove home to me how vulnerable I felt until we had put Fanny and Freddie into conservatorship [the rescue plan for them, that was eventually put in place]."

For me this is pretty jaw-dropping stuff - the Chinese told Hank Paulson that the Russians were suggesting a joint pact with China to drive down the price of the debt of Fanny and Freddie, and maximize the turmoil on Wall Street - presumably with a view to maximizing the cost of the rescue for Washington and further damaging its financial health.

Paulson says this guerrilla skirmish in markets by the Russians and Chinese didn't happen.

But this kind of intelligence from China on Russian desire and willingness to embarrass the US in a financial sense may help to explain - in a small way - why President Obama shows little desire to understand Crimea as seen by Mr Putin.

And maybe if the US is being a bit more robust than the EU in wanting to impose economic and financial sanctions on Russia, that may not all be about America's much lesser dependence (negligible dependence) on Russian gas and oil.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26609548

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The "sanctions" are meaningless. Which is not that bad at all. The kind of sanctions hurting the Russians, would sooner or later backfire against ourselves - and hurt us more than the Russians if they decide to play the sanction-you-sanction-me game really tough.

What makes a difference is that the Crimea was highly depending on the Ukraine. Over 80% of its needed energy was delivered by the Crimea, trading good not even mentioned. Russia will need 3-5 years to establish bridges and road corridors from Russia to the Crimea.

For Russia, this will become a very expensive enterprise. Moscow will need to take over where the Ukraine now will refuse to deliver.

You're right. I asked in the beginning of this thread if any one could name a country or countries who went to their knees in the realization that they had lost because of this embargo, boycott or sanctions

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

that bottle of Pepsi may also include the liquid contents of a toilet break

A "We're disputin' Putin Cock-tail"! (Yo Ivan, I'll refill both our bottles; move over Molotov!)

[BossMark]

Obama has warned Russia there will be "consequences" for their actions in Crimea.

Namely:

1. Russia will get a little bigger.
2. America will look a bit daft.

[Skybird]

Russia has demanded that the Ukrainian constitution is being changed. The Ukraine should become a federal state, and Russian should be guaranteed as a second official language.

the reasons can easily be seen. The language thing is about protecting the Russian minorities living in the Ukrainian West and strengthening the Eastern provinces, the constitution thing is ab out giving the Russian Eastern provinces solid influence in internal Ukrainian po9ltiics - something I argued from beginning on is one of the real top intentions of the Russians in this operation.

The exciting question will be how the Kremlin will react if the Ukraine becomes an official EU membership candidate or an EU member.

The Ukraine becoming a formal NATO member hopefully is a scenario that is not seriously pushed in the West.

When surfing the web, more and more info is being blogged and shown in various places that show to what degree Western money was used in the Ukraine to destabilise the situation and to provoke unrest. Considering what criminal figures and fascists have taken over and now are hailed by Western politicians as "true democrats", one could vomit about the Western hypocrisy here.

Meanwhile it became known today that the German government will not object to intentions by energy company RWE to sell shares or even all of DEA to Gazprom. That clearly indicates what to think about those robust words about sanctions they spit out all the time. It means nothing if at the same time a policy is being run that strengthens Russian influence in German and European energy policies. Jokes about boycotting Russian gas and use American companies as a replacement, are pointless, since the terminals needed in the Us to ship sufficient amounts of gas do not exist and would not be ready before several years - if the US energy revolution survives indeed. There are some indicators hinting that maybe it all is just a huge hype that lacks substance to last, US companies have reduced their investments in fracking and shale gas production in the past 6 months or so.

On the internaional law thing, I have read three comments by Germany experts for said international law now who all said the same: formally, the international law guarantees the integrity of national states "as they are" (which can be seen both positive and negative). However, there is not one detail ruling that local regions do not have a right to secede. The right to split up, is recognised. International law only marks some demands for the formal circumstances under which such a secession and earlier referendum should take place. - What we have in the given situatiohn, is a local population that by majority wants to no longer being governed by the Ukrainian government, but wants to secede. And that wish is perfectly legal, and it also is absolutely okay from a moral point of view. What can be criticised, is the speed by which the referendum was set up, not waiting for an elected government in Kiev to - well, to do what with said referendum? elay it? Cheat about it? Forbiddi8ng it in an act ofd dictatorial tyranny? And what kind of crimjnals can we expoect to get elected as new government when not he thugs of the ukrainian fascists rule the state offices and a money-stealing bitch like Tymochenko has still realistic chances to get elected? So, for mally you can attack Putin for pushing things this fast and uncompromised. In practical reality, why would one expect him to wait until a most likely corrupted leadership makes its nest in the Ukraine again, and then negotiate with them about something that is the natural right of people anyway knowing that these corrupted elites would never agree to let the Crimea voluntarily go anyway as if they had any claim to make and the population there being their property which they can own?

The west absolutely is no innocent player here, nor an honest broker. In the end the West does not necessarily want freedom and law and order in the Ukraine, what you can see in how they shake hands with Tymochenko and the current gang around the interim "prime minister". What the West wants is the Ukraine in the EU at all cost and NATO once again sneaking towards Russia's borders.

And we accuse Putin of thinking in schemes and patterns of the cold war...??? Double standards at their best, I say.

Last but not least, the referendum expresses a secondary message as well. A deep mistrust and antipathy for NATO, and the EU.

[Ducimus]

Originally Posted by BossMark

Obama has warned Russia there will be "consequences" for their actions in Crimea.

Namely:

1. Russia will get a little bigger.
2. America will look a bit daft.

Obama should have taken that old quote attributed to Abraham Lincoln to heart: " ‘Tis better to be silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt." You'd think he'd learn this after the Syrian Redline fiasco. No no, he has to go open his mouth again. His proposed sanctions are laughable at best.

No world leader has much reason to take this president seriously, nor pay heed to whatever it is he has to say. Nor is the United States in any social and economic position to put up much fight. Obama's mouth is moving, but nothing's coming out.

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by BossMark

Must be pretty awful going to vote with a rifle pointed at your head, 95% vote yes I wonder what will happen to the other 5% who voted no

Hanging chads.

[MH]

The west absolutely is no innocent player here, nor an honest broker. In the end the West does not necessarily want freedom and law and order in the Ukraine, what you can see in how they shake hands with Tymochenko and the current gang around the interim "prime minister". What the West wants is the Ukraine in the EU at all cost and NATO once again sneaking towards Russia's borders.

Not necessarily but... Ukraine will have no choice but to reform and adapt to certain standards to be part of EU or NATO.
Take a look at NATO members including some poorer former Soviet republics.

What Ukraine has to gain by being part of Russian federation?
It has been 20 years under Russian influence as third world country.

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Skybird

When surfing the web, more and more info is being blogged and shown in various places that show to what degree Western money was used in the Ukraine to destabilise the situation and to provoke unrest. Considering what criminal figures and fascists have taken over and now are hailed by Western politicians as "true democrats", one could vomit about the Western hypocrisy here.

link?

lurking, but following the situation and this thread closely.

Latest rumour is that there was massive vote fraud in the referendum, although that might just be put out by the western side to discredit the results.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I found this article interesting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26609548

I would not have read all of that if it was just a link ... thanks Jim

It was a real eye opener to see how close Russia and China really are. They will protect each other even in a war and it wasn't that long ago (1978) that they were having a border dispute with each other now that I think about it.

This Friday is some kind of dead line Russia has given the Ukraine and it's forces to get out of their newly acquired area.

Russia should've never let it go in the first place which I now hear was 1954?

Personally I worry about which side President Obama has put us on

Who will flinch first?

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

I would not have read all of that if it was just a link ... thanks Jim

It was a real eye opener to see how close Russia and China really are. They will protect each other even in a war and it wasn't that long ago (1978) that they were having a border dispute with each other now that I think about it.

This Friday is some kind of dead line Russia has given the Ukraine and it's forces to get out of their newly acquired area.

Russia should've never let it go in the first place which I now hear was 1954?

Personally I worry about which side President Obama has put us on

Who will flinch first?

I doubt it will be Putin

[Wolferz]

Atlas shrugged.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by MH

Not necessarily but... Ukraine will have no choice but to reform and adapt to certain standards to be part of EU or NATO.
Take a look at NATO members including some poorer former Soviet republics.

Hungary. Romania. Corrupt snake pits, massive deficits regarding precious democracy. Should have never been allowed into the EU.

Greece. Must not be explained - and even was not a former USSR republic.

And the erosion and violation of laws and treaties by the EU and the other states, ALL THE TIME.

Poland and former Czechoslovakia do not compare to the Ukraine, since their people always felt oppressed by the USSR, whereas many in the Ukraine do not, and are ethnic Russians.

Kiew is still called by many Russians the "original mother of Russia."

What Ukraine has to gain by being part of Russian federation?
It has been 20 years under Russian influence as third world country.

So what, does your and my assessment there count? No. What the people in the place think about it - that is what counts. And what the Kremlin allows to let happen. And in parts of the Ukraine people by majority obviously do not share your view.

Or is it about Svoboda? Mind you, German NPD and other European nationalspocialist extrmeist parties and Nazi ga gs maintain close relations with Svoboda. Svoboda seats several interim ministers right now. Other of the Maidan top atcivists who hijacked the events, are dubious figures, oligarchs, people close to the organised crime. Tymochenko is lika that as well. That is the pack people will have to vote their "representatives" from. There is Klitschko, a frendly guy believingn in fairt play and sportsmanship, that is why he has been overrolled by Svobody, which had stormed offices and claimed ministries for thmesleves while Klitschko still was calling his Uday party btogetzher to guess hioch of their own people they should send into negotations for right these offices. He is hopelessly naive, imo. What do you expect from allowing this Ukraine into the EU? The EU cannot even change things in Hungary. And NATO - do you still think the Russians will sit still when NATO moves ionce agaion right to its borders? One should know that better by now. They will play the Moldavian card, and they will destabilize the Ukraine and claim influence to balance the destabilising and influence-grabbing by the Wets in the Ukraine.

The only victim of this Western advance - will be the Ukraine itself.