Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Reece]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Putin warned military coup 'most likely' to overthrow twisted regime

A military coup is the most likely way that Vladimir Putin's regime would be overthrown an analyst of Russian politics has said.

Vladimir Juškin said that there are only two possible ways things in Russia could change, but Russian generals are more likely to overthrow Putin than a popular uprising.

Mr Juškin said that Russian generals are already voicing their displeasure at being made scapegoats for Russia's military failures.

However, he added that the current administration's idea of the Russkiy Mir (Russian world) that it uses to justify its imperial ambitions could remain for decades.

He said: "As long as Putin and his closest allies live, it will not be going anywhere. It is the only idea that ties them all together. Because the disappearance of the Russkiy Mir and the imperial consciousness would mean an end to those people and the regime. That is why it is not going anywhere. It could try and hide, change its appearance, but it is the only thing propping up the imperial sentiment."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...b44022ec89370a

In my book it's all a help!

[Jimbuna]

Turkey's Erdogan: Russia's Putin willing to end war

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he believes Russia's leader is seeking an end to the war he began in Ukraine, and that a "significant step" will be made.

He said his impression from recent talks with Vladimir Putin was that he wanted to "end this as soon as possible".

Ukraine has recaptured swathes of its territory this month.

The Turkish leader indicated things were "quite problematic" for Russia.

Mr Erdogan said he held "very extensive discussions" with Mr Putin at a summit in Uzbekistan last week.

In an interview with US broadcaster PBS, the Turkish leader said he gained the impression that the Russian president wanted a speedy end to the war.

"He is actually showing me that he's willing to end this as soon as possible," Mr Erdogan said. "That was my impression, because the way things are going right now are quite problematic."

He also said 200 "hostages" would soon be exchanged between the two sides. He gave no further detail of who would be included in such a prisoner swap.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965993

[Jimbuna]

The Prime Minister Liz Truss will tell world leaders this week that the UK will spend at least £2.3bn on military aid to Ukraine in 2023, matching the commitments made in 2022.

Ms Truss will make the pledge on her first foreign trip as prime minister, to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the UK has been a major supplier of weapons and equipment to Kyiv, though on a much smaller scale than the US.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61482305

[Skybird]

Putin currently is militarily almost impotent as long as he does not go nuclear, and so he wants to secure the territorial gains he still keeps by starting to "negotiate". If he really would like to end the war, as Erdoghan says, he just needs to leave Ukraine with his troops. The Ukrainians will not chase after them beyond the border.

When Putin says he wants to see an end and maybe will offer negotiations, what he really says is he wants a way to keep his loot and get away with what he has plundered without giving up on it.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

International suppliers of food and fertilizers do not want to do business with Russian Federation, - Borrell

The EU has not introduced any sanctions on the supply of Russian-made food and fertilizers to external markets, but international market operators involved in such supplies do not want to deal with a country that kills and kidnaps civilians in a neighboring country and provokes a global food crisis.

EU High Representative Josep Borrell said this in New York following the informal meeting of EU foreign ministers before the start of the UN General Assembly, Censor.NET informs with reference to Ukrinform.

"I want to emphasize that our sanctions are directed against the Russian war economy, not against food or agriculture (Russia. - Ed.).
No one imposes sanctions on fertilizer trade between third countries and Russia. Even we continue to import fertilizers from Russia, with a certain limit, so how can we object to their fertilizers going to other countries?", Borrell noted.

"But a lot of operators don't want to deal with Russia anymore. That's their choice. Not because they have to, but because they don't want to. It's called 'over-execution.' They can (deliver. - Ed. ), but they don't do it. Not because the sanctions are in place, but because of the uncertainty of doing business with a regime that kills and kidnaps civilians in a neighboring country. It is this war that worsens the global food crisis," added a senior EU representative. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3368355

[Skybird]

Russia'S navy has withdrawn its submarines form Sewastopol back to Russia, says British intel. It seems they fear that Sewastopol will come under fire.

Meanwhile, as far as we know, the Russian fleet still hides uselessly south-east behind the Crimean peninsula. Floating ducks. Beside having bombarded civilian targets a bit months ago it has been of remarkably little use. It was seen as the dominant navy in the Black Sea. Well. It seems the Russian navy is not any better than and as much corrupted as the Russian army.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Pseudo-referendums in occupied territories will not give Russia right to self-defense, - head of Council delegation to NATO Parliamentary Assembly Chernev

"Referendums" in the occupied territories will drive Putin even deeper into a dead end.

This was stated by the head of the permanent delegation of Ukraine to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Yehor Chernev, informs Censor.NET.

According to him, in terms of foreign policy, the results of pseudo-referendums will not be recognized by any of the world players.

"Accordingly, Russia's right to self-defense and the use of nuclear weapons will not be recognized either. The world's reaction to such a step will be as harsh as it would have been without the 'referendums,'" Chernev explained.

At the same time, in the internal political plan for Russia, the consequences of holding pseudo-referendums will be even worse, he added.

"First of all, the loss of territories that the Kremlin will declare Russian will have an even more depressing effect on the mood inside the Russian Federation and demonstrate Putin's helplessness and weakness.

Second, the loss of the annexed territories will further prolong the war and increase internal destabilization at a time when some of the domestic elites and Asian partners are already directly demanding its end.

Thirdly, according to Russian legislation, Putin will have to declare martial law and mobilization, which will make the war even less popular and may lead to a social explosion," Chernev emphasized.

Also, according to him, in economic terms, Russia will face increased sanctions pressure and the closing of the last loopholes of parallel imports, which will further reduce the standard of living of Russians and deepen the Russian technological lag behind the rest of the world.

"In addition, the need to carry out mobilization will become an additional burden on the economy. The war will eat up more and more resources, a significant part of which will traditionally be stolen. As a result, we see simply the hysterical behavior of Putin, who grabs at any opportunity to preserve at least the status of quo, not to mention victory," Chernev concluded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3368391

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Felix Lemmer is a Research Associate at the "Centre for International Security" at the Hertie School in Berlin. He writes for FOCUS:
-------------------


The Russian invasion is now finally in trouble. The Ukrainians are on the verge of retaking large parts of the Donbass. This also raises concerns about a Russian nuclear strike. How will Russia react now and what do the Germans say about a possible Russian nuclear strike?

Ukraine has recaptured important swaths of land in eastern Ukraine in recent days. Russia is trying to intimidate the Ukrainian population with retaliatory strikes. Since the beginning of Russia's attack on Ukraine, Russian decision-makers have also threatened Ukraine and NATO member states with nuclear weapons.

On February 24, 2022, the day of the invasion, for example, Russian President Putin threatened that anyone who tried to obstruct Russia would face "unprecedented consequences." Russia, he said, is "one of the most powerful nuclear powers in the world." Most security experts assume that Russia is bluffing. However, the idea of a Russian nuclear strike is not unthinkable.

Rather, a tactical nuclear strike aims to create a risky scenario; it should be so unstable that the adversary considers the consequences of a further escalation to be worse than a withdrawal or than agreeing to negotiations. The use of nuclear weapons in such a scenario is thus primarily a political strategy. Its target is the psyche of the adversary.

In the current situation, the following scenario would be conceivable: The Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasingly stalled. Russia has nearly 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads, which have long been a point of conflict in arms control negotiations. Putin could decide to demonstratively detonate one such warhead over Ukraine to break the Ukrainians' will to fight and intimidate NATO.

Putin could gamble that panic would break out in both Ukraine and the thirty NATO member states, paralyzing decision-making in such a way that Ukraine's will to fight, as well as further arms deliveries or other support to Ukraine, would be off the table.

That's the theory, but would it work? How would the German population react to a tactical nuclear strike? We asked this question in two representative surveys conducted in spring 2021 and summer 2022. In our hypothetical scenario, Russia attacks NATO member state Latvia, whereupon NATO launches a defense mission.

Russia then detonates a tactical nuclear weapon to force the end of the NATO intervention. In one variation, this nuclear strike is demonstratively over the North Sea; in another, a NATO ship is attacked with a tactical nuclear weapon.

The results of our surveys show that a large proportion of the German population (about 40% in 2021 and 2022) do not know how the German government should react in such a scenario. Approximately 18% of respondents (19% in 2021 and 17% in 2022) want to continue the defense of Latvia but without reacting militarily to the Russian nuclear strike.

About 18% of the German population (17% in 2021 and 20% in 2022) would call for a non-nuclear retaliatory strike, and about 10% of respondents argue that NATO should also consider a demonstrative nuclear explosion over the Black Sea.
In the event of a NATO attack, respondents tend to choose more aggressive responses

Only about 13% (15% in 2021 and 11% in 2022) favor immediately opening peace negotiations with Russia and breaking off the defense of Latvia. In the variation in which the NATO ship is attacked, respondents are more likely to choose more aggressive responses such as a non-nuclear military retaliatory strike and less likely to choose an end to the defense of Latvia.

These results suggest that a nuclear escalation by Russia would not go as Putin might envision. A demonstrative use of nuclear weapons seems to provoke more anger than fear in Germany and would therefore probably not lead directly to an end of a NATO operation at all.

Despite the many Russian nuclear threats in recent months, fewer respondents are intimidated by a nuclear strike in 2022 than in 2021. However, the high rate of "I don't know" responses shows that public opinion is impressionable and much will depend on political leadership in such a scenario.

[MaDef]

That's the problem Skybird, there should only be one response to the use of "tactical Nuclear weapons", and that is an immediate and complete destruction of the regime that fired it. no negotiations or waiting periods.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by MaDef

That's the problem Skybird, there should only be one response to the use of "tactical Nuclear weapons", and that is an immediate and complete destruction of the regime that fired it. no negotiations or waiting periods.

Lets hope that there will be a coup before Putin press the button.

Well to be honest I think our reply will not be nukes...it will be with tuffer sanctions and embargoes.

Markus

[Skybird]

Luhansk and Donzek to hold referendums to join Russia.


The idea is clear. Then claiming to be "Russian soil", they fall under the new nuclear doctrine that says that any attack on "Russia" can be answered with nuclear weapons.



Somebody prepares the way for something here. The West needs to get its preparations done for the "What if"-scenario of worst kind. Only he who is prepared and knows what do do if case X happens, has the chance to convince the other that the threat will not acchieve its purpose and that attempted intimidation will fail as well. Biden is right in telling Russia to please not do it. The problem for me is that the way how he put it to me is not convincing, but sounds weak, gives a weak, fearful impression. Putin will likely feel encouraged, I fear.

[Dargo]

The Russian stock market collapsed on the news about referendums in Ukrainian regions and possible mobilization. The Mosbirzh Index is down 11 per cent. Shares of Gazprom fell 13%, Lukoil 11%, Rosneft and Yandex 10%. Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu are expected to address the nation tonight, according to Kremlin pool reporters.