Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Russians 'very embarrassed' as 'cracks in system' show Putin regime on brink of collapse

A dollar for every time in the past 20 years that I was told that Russia's collapse is imminent, and I would be an much wealthier man today.


Dont now if true or not. Dont care either. I heard it too often.

[Jimbuna]

Oligarchic clans have lost their influence on Ukrainian politics, - Danilov

Currently, oligarchic clans do not have any influence on Ukrainian politics.

As Censor.NET informs with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, the Secretary of the NSDC Oleksii Danilov stated this in an interview with Wirtualna Polska.

"The war causes them to lose their influence on the country," he said.

At the same time, according to Danilov, "the war makes it difficult to work with the register (of oligarchs. - Ed.). We do not control parts of our territory, so it is difficult to estimate the fortunes of some people. But, in my opinion, the anti-oligarchic law has already worked."

"We see that the oligarchs are making moves to avoid getting into the register. Its goal is to build a transparent system, fair relations between business, the government, and society. Instead of oligarchs, we need businessmen who will create jobs," said the secretary of the NSDC.

"It was a system that allowed oligarchs to function. The goat is not to blame for eating cabbage from an unfenced garden. There were no fences in our country, so anyone could eat this cabbage. Currently, oligarchic clans do not influence Ukrainian politics. I don't know what will happen in the future, but I want this issue to never return to us," Danilov added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3367058

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung and FOCUS:
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The Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, General Eberhard Zorn, so far cannot see any real counteroffensive by the Ukrainians. "I am careful with the terms," he said, according to an advance report in Focus magazine Wednesday (Sept. 14). At best, he said, he sees "counterattacks that can be used to win back places or individual sections of the front, but not to push Russia back on a broad front." He also said that the approaching winter "will not reduce the suffering - on the contrary." To be sure, he said, the Ukrainian army is "acting smartly, rarely offering a broadside, and conducting operations with aplomb and great agility."

And "just two weeks ago I would have said that the entire Donbass would be in Russian hands in six months. Today I say they won't be able to do that." But whether the Ukrainians would really have the strength for a counteroffensive, Zorn doubts: "They would need a superiority of at least 3 to 1."

In an interview with Focus, Zorn reiterated his fear that Russia could open a second front, naming possible sites of attack: "Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, the Finnish border, Georgia, Moldova... there are many possibilities." Putin would have the capabilities. Even though about 60 percent of his land forces are tied up in the Ukraine war, the land forces, and especially the Russian Navy and Air Force, still have uncommitted capabilities. If Putin ordered a general mobilization, he would not have manpower problems either."

Zorn defended past German arms deliveries but warned against further ones, saying, "My advice is really to recognize our numbers: Everything we give away, we need back," Putin understands only one language, "that is that of power. For an effective deterrent, we need the appropriate forces. Our partners are counting on us."
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Hm. "Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, the Finnish border, Georgia, Moldova"..., he says? Some of these places surely become the next warzones if Russia succeeds in the Ukraine.And the object of discussion is not reserves of the Bundeswehr being given to the Ukraine, it is beyond doubt that Germany cannot do this anymore indeed. But it is about phased-out tanks and IFVs the BW does not have anymore but the industry. If the German "leadership" is so worried about more Russian attacks, maybe even an attack on NATO states in the Baltic - why does it then not buy back these phased out equipments and prepares them for active duty again?


I can imagine Russian trouble making in Moldovia, Georgia, yes. But in the Baltic? Finlanbd? I am currently sceptical on that, because the Russian army has illustrated its incompetence so clearly that it would be madness if they now attack NATO directly. And one thing every poll about Russia shows since years: nothing Russian people are more worried about than a war with NATO. Ukraine is not NATO, has not its weapons and means. And see what it does to Russia's 1st guard tank army recently, a claimed elite unit they pout their pride in and that wa smeant to defend Moscow . And look at so many other formations the Rusisans have send there - and what the ukrianians have done to them.



An attack oi the Baltic currently is not my primary concern anymore. I was worried of that. Before the war.

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Speculation:

Does anyone of you know what the outcome of the war would be if Kerch Bridge was destroyed ?

As I see it it would be a huge setback for the Russian.

Markus

[Skybird]

Deutsche Welle (DW)
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Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev is head of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna. He does not believe that the war in Ukraine will end quickly. Financial crisis, inflation and energy prices will "cause massive turbulence" in the EU.

Deutsche Welle: Mr. Krastev, the Ukrainian army is currently achieving impressive military successes in its counteroffensive against Russian troops in their country. Is the war in Ukraine about to end?

Ivan Krastev: The wars of the past decades have never had a real end, the warlike actions were simply frozen at some point. This is likely to happen in this war as well. There will probably be a ceasefire, but no real peace. As we hear and read, Russia is preparing "independence referenda" in the territories controlled by Moscow, which is de facto annexation of these territories. Under these conditions, peace negotiations are impossible.

Russian propaganda claims that Russia defeated Ukraine long ago. Now it is fighting against NATO, which is waging war with Ukrainian cannon fodder. Is Moscow right?

In any war, both sides claim victory. Russia actually started the war as a "special operation," convinced that within a few weeks there would no longer be a pro-Western Ukraine. In this sense, Russia has already lost, because it has not achieved this goal.

The claim that they are actually fighting the West in Ukraine attempts to answer two questions. First, why are the Russians killing people in Ukraine with whom they lived until recently? And second, why does Russia not have the expected military superiority? The only explanation that seems plausible in both cases: Russia is fighting the entire West. The thesis is: the West has betrayed Russia, Russia is the victim and not the aggressor.

This cliché of good Russia against evil Ukraine and the West is apparently widely accepted. Russian TV host Vladimir Solovyov recently said the following, mutatis mutandis: Yes, Russians are not the richest people, they do not have the highest life expectancy, but they fight on the side of good. Is this the mindset of all Russians?

Portraying Russians as the "chosen people" who keep saving the world is nothing new. What is new, however, is that this idea no longer ignites within Russian society. A consumer society has emerged that is willing to accept military operations in the post-Soviet space, but not the idea of missionary self-sacrifice. This is precisely why the Russian government is trying to shield people in the big cities from the war. In Moscow or St. Petersburg, after all, you can hardly see the infamous Z symbol.

Does this mean that the sanctions are having an effect on the Russian population?

In the medium term, they will certainly have an effect, but so far they have not had a major impact on the everyday life of ordinary Russians. Only the urban middle class and the business elite are affected, i.e. the ten million or so Russians who travel abroad. This has become much more complicated. Moreover, when they are abroad, they are now looked at askance there. They are the real losers in this war on the Russian side.

And who is the winner? Another Moscow propaganda cliché claims that the only winners are the United States. Is there any truth in that?

Yes, Russian propaganda tirelessly claims that everything that happens in the world is caused by the U.S. and results in a bottom line gain for the U.S.. In reality, however, the economic damage caused by this war has been felt much more painfully in Europe than in the United States. At the same time, Europe has also painfully felt its dependence on the United States. Paradoxically, few people have contributed more to this growing dependence than President Putin. By claiming that the U.S. is a war profiteer, Moscow is precisely trying to drive a wedge between Brussels and Washington. Russian propaganda repeats it again and again: oil and gas prices in the EU are growing, but the U.S. is not affected, it sells its liquefied natural gas.

They also sell their weapons.

In the case of Ukraine, the weapons are rather given away. Yes, American weapons and the U.S. are indeed a key factor in this war. But the Russian narrative tries to reinterpret the whole thing: The U.S. was not only involved, it wanted and initiated the war. But this narrative is not at all convincing. After all, before Russia's attack, the U.S. was strategically aligned entirely with China and did everything conceivable to prevent this war.

How will the war affect the next U.S. presidential election?

America is dramatically divided in many ways, and Ukraine is by no means at the center of the public debate. The Senate and Congressional elections in November are crucial. Until two months ago, it appeared that Democrats would lose both houses of Congress. That would have massively strengthened Donald Trump's positions. One can imagine a next President Trump gleefully claiming that the Ukraine war was Joe Biden's war. But if the Democrats were to retain control of the Senate and Congress, the question for Republicans is: Is Trump the right candidate?

People keep saying that the U.S. and Russia are on the brink of nuclear war right now. Is that how you see it?

The danger exists, but it's not that serious at the moment. Because the only thing the Russians and the Americans are managing together at the moment is to prevent a nuclear escalation. But the big risk is Ukraine's nuclear power plants. Fighting is proceeding dangerously close to the plants, and a mistake or human error could lead to a dramatic development. The use of nuclear weapons becomes more likely only in the event of a huge Ukrainian military success. Or if Kiev tries to regain Crimea.

Will Moscow export the war to other countries, to Moldova or the Baltic states?

That depends on the course of the war in Ukraine. At the moment, Russia is trying to avoid a broad mobilization. Moscow does not want to send the sons of the urban middle class to the front under any circumstances. Depending on how things go in Ukraine, Russia might indeed attack Moldova - but not the Baltic states under any circumstances. They are NATO members, and if they were attacked, it would be a very different war.

The Baltics, as well as the Poles, sounded the alarm within the EU long before Moscow attacked Ukraine, warning of the danger posed by Putin - but no one listened. Now the war is here. What impact will it have on the EU?

First and foremost, it has led to a consolidation of the EU. The attitudes of governments, but also of citizens, have led to unprecedented sanctions against Russia. Support for Ukraine remains strong, but meanwhile tensions are also growing within the EU and in individual EU countries. I fear that the next six to nine months will be the most difficult in the history of the EU.

Now we are paying a huge price for the war - but the EU has been hit by other crises before. In this sense, the war seems to me like a kind of long-COVID: The refugee crisis is back, twice as many refugees have already come to Europe from Ukraine as during the Syrian war. The financial crisis is also back, threatening instability and inflation.

Europe and Japan currently have to spend about $100 billion more per month on energy than they did a year ago. This huge financial burden is creating massive problems. And societies are already tired. There will be more protests like those in Prague and Germany, I fear. Different groups have consolidated during different crises. People who were marginalized during the financial crisis, opponents of refugees, opponents of vaccination: today they are all coming together as opponents of the establishment and raising demands. This will create massive turbulence in the EU.

But that is still not the worst of it. In all previous crises, Germany was the stability factor, a rock of stability. Today, however, Germany is one of the countries most affected economically by the crisis. Moreover, the moral legitimacy of the Federal Republic is being questioned, especially by the Baltic states and the Poles, but also by the Czechs. These changed attitudes toward Germany - but also toward France - further complicate efforts to emerge from this massive crisis.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Does anyone of you know what the outcome of the war would be if Kerch Bridge was destroyed ?

Nobody can know what the outcome would be if this or that event takes place. But the loss of the bridges would make the logistical supply situation for the occupants in Crimea and their supply of the Russian front in the south much, much, much more difficult.

[Jimbuna]

President Volodymyr Zelensky has been to the recaptured city of Izyum, a key logistics hub in north-eastern Ukraine.

During his visit, Mr Zelensky thanked troops who took part in the counter-attack against Russian occupiers.

He oversaw a flag-raising ceremony and said the Ukrainian flag would return to every city and village in the country.

Ukrainian officials say they are targeting towns in the eastern Donbas region after making a series of gains in a rapid counter-offensive.

In recent days, Ukraine's army has reclaimed swathes of occupied territory, forcing Russian troops to retreat.

In a late evening address on Tuesday, Mr Zelensky said his forces were fortifying their hold over 8,000 sq km (3,088 sq miles) of retaken territory in the Kharkiv region.

Last Thursday, President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had retaken 1,000 sq km. By Sunday, that stated figure had tripled to 3,000 sq km, before rising again to 6,000 sq km.

The precise scale of Ukraine's gains has not been verified by the BBC.

He vowed to take back all Ukrainian territory still occupied by Russian forces - he said he did not know when this would happen, but that the "truth is on our side".

US President Joe Biden said Ukraine had made "significant" gains.

Mr Biden said it was "clear" that the advance had enjoyed success, but cautioned that the offensive "could be a long haul".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62899474

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Nobody can know what the outcome would be if this or that event takes place. But the loss of the bridges would make the logistical supply situation for the occupants in Crimea and their supply of the Russian front in the south much, much, much more difficult.

Thank you.

Only thing I know for sure is:

If they want to take Crimea they have to destroy the bridge.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

In liberated Balaklia, death of person from torture at police station during Russian occupation was confirmed. PHOTOS

In the premises of the Balaklia police station, where the Russian military and special services detained and tortured local residents during the occupation.

This was reported by the head of the investigative department of the police of the Kharkiv region Serhii Bolvinov, Censor.NET reports.

According to Serhii Bolvinov, in the administrative building of the police station, there were soldiers of the so-called "LPR" and the Chechen Republic, as well as representatives of the riot police of Tolyatti and the FSB of the Russian Federation. Each room held from 8 to 15 people, who were secretly monitored.

"During the inspection of the building, we discovered wires leading to hidden video cameras in the rooms where the hostages were kept. People, including women, were sleeping on the floor, and during interrogations, they were tortured with electric currents. Currently, we have one confirmed death of a person as a result of torture. We know the profile data of the victim and the place of burial, so we will carry out the exhumation for further procedural actions," said the head of the investigative department of the State Police of the Kharkiv region.

Fleeing from the Ukrainian city, the occupiers left the prisoners in closed rooms. However, one of the hostages was able to break a window and climb out to open all the doors and free the others. Therefore, the exact number of detainees and victims is still being determined. Source: https://censor.net/en/p3367124

[Jimbuna]

Germany will change its mind about Leopard tanks. Count is for week, - Ambassador Melnyk

Ambassador of Ukraine to Germany Andrii Melnyk is convinced that the ruling coalition in Germany will make a decision on the supply of Marder armored personnel carriers and Leopard tanks to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

He said this in an interview with the German mass media, Censor.NET reports with reference to Liga.net.

"I am convinced that the ruling coalition, which refuses to supply Marder armored personnel carriers and Leopard tanks, will change its decision. It is only a matter of time, and the score is coming in weeks," said Melnyk.

He also noted that Ukraine wants to free as much territory as possible before winter.

"I hope that the Ukrainian army can outsmart the Russians in the coming weeks, just like they have done in the last few days. ...I think we have a good chance. We have seen that our army, which has always been considered weak, is quite capable to achieve such success even with a small amount of Western weapons. We should continue to be supported," the ambassador said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3367099

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

I would hesitate opening a third front with my reserve division.

Depending on how it goes for the northern division around Luhansk and for the southern division around Kherson

I could make a split Divide The Russian at Mariopol and then turn north or south and attack Kherson from two front.

Even thinking about split this third division and let one half attack south and the other north.

Attacking Russia on four front.

It's easy to sit here behind the monitor and write another thing is standing somewhere with a map and decide for real.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia advertises recruitment of convicts who have committed serious crimes for war in Ukraine: "Everyone has second chance!". VIDEO

Putin’s closest friend, previously convicted Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the private military company "Wagner", personally recruits those convicted in Russia of serious crimes for the war in Ukraine.

Corresponding video was published today, reports Censor.NЕТ.

Putin’s closest friend, previously convicted Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the private military company "Wagner", personally recruits those convicted in Russia of serious crimes for the war in Ukraine.

Corresponding video was published today, reports Censor.NЕТ.
"Putin has reinstated the Stalinist fine battalions! Every Ukrainian, every friend of Ukraine, every commander, every soldier, the whole world should watch this video, which will be one of the most impressive evidence of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Putin's closest friend, the previously convicted Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the private military company "Wagner", is personally giving a speech to recruit those convicted of major crimes for the war in Ukraine.
This is who and what Putin is throwing into the fight. If the convicts agree to sign a 6-month contract, they will be released from punishment despite the severity of the crime. Prigozhin recruits drug addicts, murderers, rapists of women who require discipline and a willingness to go into battle.
This is not a movie, this is life, this is who defends the "Russian world," who wants to take over Ukraine. Putin is unable to find warriors to take over Ukraine, so Putin has made an alliance with criminals, and promises amnesty to murderers and rapists of Russians if they do it in Ukraine! This is a must watch for everyone!" - Yuri Butusov, Editor-in-Chief of Censor.net, commented on the video. Source: https://censor.net/en/v3367170

[Jimbuna]

Six percent of Kharkiv’s territory remains occupied - RMA

As of September 14, 6% of the territory of the Kharkiv region remains under Russian occupation.

This was announced by the head of Kharkiv RMA Oleg Synehubiv at a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to рress service of President.

According to the official, 16 territorial communities in Kharkiv region have been fully de-occupied, while seven more communities have been partially de-occupied. Six percent of the region remains under occupation, while before the counterattack there were 32 percent.

Infrastructure is being repaired in the region, power lines, mobile communications and medical facilities are being restored in the liberated territories, the head of the RMA said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3367173