Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Oberon]

Interesting move by China, obviously not close enough allies with Russia to want to take the flak with them, but not distant enough to want to vote in favour. Still, not that it really matters with the self-serving veto power granted to the UNSC which undermines its existence, so there you go.

[Schroeder]

Crimea will be Russian in the very near future. We should get used to it as there is nothing we can really do about it (without massive backlash that is...).

[mapuc]

The question is now

will there be a war between Ukraine and Crimea/Russia?

the next question, will this war escalate?

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

No surprises here then apart from China abstaining for a change.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26595776

Not exactly a surprise when they did the same in Tibet as we did in Hawaii; no hands are squeaky clean here! More a case of which rat has the scalier tail

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Interesting move by China, obviously not close enough allies with Russia to want to take the flak with them, but not distant enough to want to vote in favour. Still, not that it really matters with the self-serving veto power granted to the UNSC which undermines its existence, so there you go.

Soooo....back to an arms race that Russia won't be able to compete against the west with?

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Soooo....back to an arms race that Russia won't be able to compete against the west with?

I doubt it, we're still smarting from the after-effects of the last one.

[Jimbuna]

Well the outcome is beyond doubt when you consider the two choices on the ballot paper both amount to leaving the Ukraine to all intents and purposes.

[Betonov]

I see three scenarios if Crimea joins Russia.

-Kiev backs down and things ease up

-Kiev thinks the west is backing them up and tries to retake Crimea but the west backs down and Ukraine is clobered

-Kiev thinks the west is backing them up and tries to retake Crimea and the west joins the fray and then goes my England trip

[Schroeder]

Originally Posted by Betonov

-Kiev thinks the west is backing them up and tries to retake Crimea and the west joins the fray and then goes my England trip

Very unlikely. Germany won't do anything militarily and I can't see any western nation to send troops as their local populations wouldn't support that. It will all come down to plenty of sabre rattling, useless sanctions (like forbidding people to enter the EU who would never come here anyway), emotional speeches and then everybody goes back to normal sooner or later.

[Oberon]

Well, Kiev is not sounding like it's going to back down, but as we all know, what things sound like and what they actually are, are two different things.

"I want to say above all ... to the Ukrainian people: Let there be no doubt, the Ukrainian state will find all those ringleaders of separatism and division who now, under the cover of Russian troops, are trying to destroy Ukrainian independence,"

"Russia must immediately withdraw its military troops out of Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet to their places of permanent deployment as it is backed by certain basic agreements between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian navy headquarters was and is going to stay in Sevastopol. As for the National Guard, a few days ago, more than 40,000 people have already signed up and volunteered for the military commissariat.

And Russia is preparing for potential conflict:

Russian troops have placed several dozen anti-tank mines outside a base of Ukrainian marines in the Crimean town of Feodosiya, the UNIAN news agency reports, quoting the Ukrainian navy.

Russian security forces have also been throwing grenades into the water next to Ukrainian navy ships in Sevastopol's Kuryna Bay, according to the UNIAN news agency.

Meanwhile, apparently a truce has been negotiated between the Russian and Ukrainian forces in Crimea which is to last until 21st of March, after then what happens is anyones best guess.

[antikristuseke]

The odds of the Ukraine reciving any military aid are slim to none. This referendum farce will go through, crimea will be joiend with the glorious soviet onion and everything will go on as before.

[Skybird]

Some thousand Western enterprises have done hugh investments in Russia, which in case of war with Russia would be at risk (and that is what we talk of when mentioning "Western intervention on the Crimea: war with Russia). Germany is the forerunner on these joint ventures and investments. 30% of Europe'S gas is delivered by Russia. Russia hold the third-biggest stockpile of US bonds and dollars in the world. A formidable threat, the latter. They have withheld to play that card so far, for that special opporutntitry, like the Chinese. Wetserns donot beleive that. I think such westerners act by a desperate logic of "they cannot do what they in our own interest should not do".

There you have your chances for a Western intervention forming up: zero.

They already continue to talk in a way that shows me that they have learned nothing, absolutely nothing. Instead of realising that Russia has vital strategic interests that are different from Europe's, they now talk of bringing the ukraine not just into the EU, but also into NATO as fast as possible. I can just shake my head in consternation about so much ignorance. It is madness, but follows the same stupid paths the West has followed on Russia since the cold war ended: pushing them, pushing them more, and then pushing them even more. The result is that a country and a man named Putin, who were once set to close the gap between both, later u-turned after getting disillusioned, and are not really interested in Europe anymore and give brown greasy stuff for what Europe thinks about them. There is only one reasonable role for the Ukraine: a mediating puffer between Europe and Russia, formally independent, economically tied to both Europe and Russia as well, and without any military role that could bring Nato onto its soil. A land where Europe fades out, and Middle East and Russia fade in. This would be something that also Russian geopolitical interest could arrange itself with. It would give the country a perspective of becoming important indeed as a broker between the West, and Russia. Precondition for that is that the Ukrainian people do not care so much for that peninsula that plays no practical role for most Ukrainians' life anyway (and that has been disputed and has been Russian before), but that they care for the criminal elites and oligarchs wrecking them and abusing them since so long, so that they hunt them down and chase them out of the country - or cut their heads off. Mind you, both Yanukovich and Tymochenko have been elected by the people, originally. If people bring such people into power again and again, or allow them to grab power themselves, then I think such a people does not deserve anything better. This is what Ukrainians should be concerned about, imo, not some foolish pride over a distant peninsula that has little practical meaning for most of them. With the big cleaning they best start at with the criminals and gangsters that have hijacked their latest revolution once again, and secured the state'S offices for themselves without being legitimated for that by the people. But that nationalistic sentiment! That precious, sweet, wonderfull sense for nationalism, pathos and symbols of tempting grandeur! Too many people are junkies for that sort of feelings.

I know how Russia will react to that idea of NATO in the Ukraine. They already are after Moldavia, and will make that one a completed task, they also will destabilize the Ukraine if it threatens to become a NATO base, for Russia simply cannot allow that to happen, mand if necessary they indeed will start an occupation of more parts of the Ukraine. They cannot afford to let the Ukraine go into the West completely. If you want them to complete that task, go ahead, make the Ukraine a NATO member. Its the shortest path to getting the Ukraine sacked by Moscow, and raising chances for a bigger war between Europe and Russia. And that war Eurpope at least is a badly prepared for as Russia. Only that the Russians are far more determined than European powers.

Europe must learn two things: first it must stop to define Russian interests for the Russians that are not Russian interests but European interests, and second it must learn that stupid bigmouthing as the EU does all the time leads nowhere and cannot compensate lacking military potency.

One example I read today: last week the EU parliament signed a resolution for protecting the Antarctic. The Green and other world improving philantropists are happy. Two days later the Russians flew 350 paratroopers and tons of military equipment into the Arctic for military exercises , airdropping the troops and material at weather conditions and wind speeds that would prevent Western forces to do the same under such lousy conditions, they claim. The troops then conducted a simulated raid on an airfield, and securing it so fast that one hour later first military transports could land and bring in more military supplies.

Resolutions. A waste of breath, time and ink. But hey, I have a great idea. They could send Putin a petition. A EU parliament petition. Sweet! Isn't that a strong gesture? They could also lower the defence budget once again and reduce their armed forces, as a sign of their good will.

[MH]

So much drama.

The difference between NATO and the Russan block appear to be a matter of choice.
Most NATO members are voluntary while with the eastern block it is very much grey area.
The issue with Ukraine is for the Ukrainians to be able to make their choices independently.
NATO may open the door but at the end it is their choice to make.

Really ... are you suffering some sort of stockholm syndrome or your dislike of EU clouds your vision.
Putin makes big impression with his dick waving isn't he?
Lets walk on tiptoes now.
Quite opposite to western wanky polite diplomacy.
Here comes deja vu.......sort of lol.
So actually , what are you calling for here anyway?

[Jimbuna]

All in all, whichever opinion you have...a right royal mess

[Skybird]

... that could have been avoided if one would not think since 20 years that Russia must act by Western standards and interests, and must please Western demands by acting against its own self-understanding and own interest. In other words: the West notoriously expects Russia to act stupid. And it is that expectation that is stupid.

Is it so much asked for to learn that Russia acts by Russian standards and interests, and that sooner or later it must bite back if you constantly ignore that?

That is no "drama", MH. It just is avoiding the kind of simplification that you base on.