Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Reece]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Russian troops continue to fight their way forward in Ukraine. In January, they occupied 430 square kilometers. This is more land than in the same months of the two previous years. Compared to December and November, however, the territorial conquests are smaller. Overall, this January is the month with the largest net territorial losses for Ukraine to date, even though the Ukrainians are trying to carry out offensive operations in Kursk again and are said to have broken through the front at one point.



They won soem ground, and lost much more ground. Which grounds traded are of greater strategic value, I do not comment on.

This gain has cost Russia huge amount of loses ratio is 7:1 for 430 square kilometres that still is no gain in any key cities or further to their minimal goal of occupation of the Donetsk oblast. With this pace, they need at least 10 year crawling in their own blood 7:1. A new patch of Russian Logistics Corps appeared.

[Jimbuna]

^ Now that is quite a nice thought

[Dargo]

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

Ukraine has mineral resources, but that doesn't mean we're giving them anyone, even strategic partners

Ukraine possesses mineral resources, but "that does not mean we are giving them away to anyone, not even to our strategic partners," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said. "We have mineral resources, but that does not mean that we are handing them over to anyone – even our strategic partners. It's about partnership. Invest your money. Bring in investments. Let's develop [the resources] together, let's generate revenue. Most importantly, this is about the security of the Western world and the European continent. These burglars – Russia and its allies – won't get their hands on everything," he said in an interview with Reuters, a piece of which has been posted on the president's Telegram channel on Saturday.

According to the head of state, Russia has seized less than 20% of Ukraine's mineral resources. "If 20% of our land is occupied, that does not mean they've taken 20% of our mineral resources. So far, it's less," he said. At the same time, Zelenskyy emphasized that the remaining resources need to be protected. "We must stop Putin and safeguard what we still have," he said. "There are vast [of mineral resources] in Dnipropetrovsk region, as well as in the central and western regions of Ukraine. Unfortunately, we have lost coal deposits, but I know they've also lost a lot there because they did not know how to manage coalmines and flooded many of them," Zelenskyy said. https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1046564.html

[Skybird]

Around 70% of their rare earth deposits are concentrated in those areas that currently are occupied by Russia. This was - again - explained by varuous sources just a few days ago when the issue was brought up again by Trump's demand to be paid in access to rare earths for americna aid. And I mean not the complete oblasts, but the occupied territories of these oblasts.


These occupied teritories also house an overproportional share of Ukraine's other ressources, certain sorts of coal needed to fuel ironworks (you cannot fuel these wiht ust any sort of coal),branches of agriculture, and heavy industry. Just a week or ten days ago Ukraine lost the last mine that mined these utmost important sorts of coal. I described it in a post back then.



Zelensky sees his options diminishing while Trump and Moscow do not talk with him, but about him. Desperate people tell desperate fairytales.


Same to be said about the Europeans, they are not heard in Trump's and Moscow's talking. They are out.



Both Putin's and Trump's thinking are meeting here. They both agree that the major powers should settle this, and Putin from beginning on only wanted to talk with the US, not Europe and not Kyiv. None of them sees Europe as a major power. And I must agree.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Around 70% of their rare earth deposits are concentrated in those areas that currently are occupied by Russia. This was - again - explained by varuous sources just a few days ago when the issue was brought up again by Trump's demand to be paid in access to rare earths for americna aid. And I mean not the complete oblasts, but the occupied territories of these oblasts.


These occupied teritories also house an overproportional share of Ukraine's other ressources, certain sorts of coal needed to fuel ironworks (you cannot fuel these wiht ust any sort of coal),branches of agriculture, and heavy industry. Just a week or ten days ago Ukraine lost the last mine that mined these utmost important sorts of coal. I described it in a post back then.



Zelensky sees his options diminishing while Trump and Moscow do not talk with him, but about him. Desperate people tell desperate fairytales.


Same to be said about the Europeans, they are not heard in Trump's and Moscow's talking. They are out.



Both Putin's and Trump's thinking are meeting here. They both agree that the major powers should settle this, and Putin from beginning on only wanted to talk with the US, not Europe and not Kyiv. None of them sees Europe as a major power. And I must agree.

It is not 70% more, around 53% of the country’s total. You focus too much on old economics, coal is a fuel from the past and the Donets Black Coal Basin suffers from three problems:

1. Mines are not profitable enough to sustain capital investment, resulting in ageing mining equipment and processes.
2. The government, taking advice from the International Monetary Fund, has discontinued $600 million annual mining subsidies.
3. The Ukrainian government refuses to buy from mines controlled by Russia.

In July 2014, several mines were closed in Eastern Ukraine because of fighting during the 2014 pro-Russian conflict in Ukraine. The war in Donbass caused coal production in Ukraine to decrease by 22.4% of its 2013 value, to 64.976 million tonnes.

[Skybird]

I go with what they analysed both on TV, and in various print/web media. The number of mines is not the relvant thing but how each is in reserves it holds. And the majoirty of those reserves of precious earths (not number of mines) is concentrated in the Donbass and Donezk region. So it is with coal which you seem to underestimate, Ukrainian economy was and still is runnigngon coal significantly, so are ironworks. What the bright future of welath and glory will bring remains to be seen but until then Ukraine depends heavily on coal, last but not least for ironworks and steel making. Eelecgtric power production alone based to over one third on coal before the war (38%). And for steelmilling they need not just any black coal, but a certain type of coal that they have lost the last mine for to the Russians just a week or two ago. They have NONE of tnta anymore, currently. It will and already does have an effect on their steel production and that hampers defense production as well - SIGNIFICANTLY. When that mining town fell Western experts speculated that they could lose over 50% of their steel milling capacity if they do not manage to get the needed kind of coal from other coutnries. They need to buy that sort of coal offshore, which costs them much money, and time.



Every child knows that Donbass and Donezk was and is the centre of their mining industry for coal, much of their gas, and steel milling. Asov Steel was one of the biggest steel producers there was, internationally.



They have also lost a very big part of their agricultural sector, namely sunflower, wheat. And Russia wants to defend what many see as dominant role in internaitonal wheat production. Some said already at the beginning of the war that this was a factor in the decision to go to war: to neutralise Ukriane as a rival in wheat trade and get control over their wheat production. Estimations vary what ammount of wheat production now is lost to Russia, but considering that Saporischja and Cherson were the two leading oblasts in national wheat production, Crimea also was very important, and even Donbass and Donezk contributed significant ammounts to the national harvest per year, and considering further the ammount of territories occupied by Russia in these five oblasts, estimations vary between one third and one half of Ukraine'S total wheat harvest now being in hands of Russia. Or better, Ukraine lost one third to one half of its former national wheat capacity, since russia does not farm and harvest all occupied agricultural soils currently (but could so after a seize fire), but only partly does so.

[Skybird]

[Tagesspiegel] Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia disconnected from the so-called BRELL network at exactly 9:09 a.m. Since then, the three Baltic countries have no longer been connected to the Russian power grid. Synchronization with the Western European power grid is expected to be completed by Sunday evening.

Until then, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were the only European countries still connected to the Russian system - a relic from Soviet times. Ukraine, together with Moldova, joined Europe's power grid in March 2022. Russia's attack, which violated international law, happened just as the neighboring country was about to leave the Russian power grid.

The Baltic countries bordering the Baltic Sea are now connected to Europe with a single cable via Poland. This is another reason why the desynchronization took almost two decades of planning. Because merging different energy systems is very complex, explains Susanne Nies. "Baltic synchronization was always a bit of a challenge because there is only one cable connection between Lithuania and Poland," says the head of the Energy and Information project at the Helmholtz Center in Berlin.

Specifically, the connections of the old system are being cut and the alternating current network is being connected to continental Europe via Poland. According to Nies, this is particularly difficult with alternating current: the current, which moves at almost the speed of light, must always maintain a certain frequency. If one small thing goes wrong, the entire network suffers.
(...)
But the Baltic states could continue to be used as Russian hostages. Moscow could use the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which is surrounded by NATO states, as a means of exerting pressure, warns Nies: "Putin could, for example, deliberately cause a blackout there and then blame the Baltic states - and possibly give them an ultimatum to test NATO."

[Dargo]

Ukraine holds immense potential as a major global supplier of critical raw materials essential for these high-profile industries. With vast reserves of minerals, Ukraine can significantly contribute to the global supply chain for many or all of them. Ukraine’s diverse geological zones make it a top 10 global supplier of mineral resources, holding around 5% of the world’s total. Ukraine has approximately 20,000 mineral deposits covering 116 types. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, 3,055 of these deposits (15%) were active, including 147 metallic and 4,676 of non-metallic mineral deposits.

Ukraine is a key potential supplier of rare earth metals, including titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium, zirconium, graphite, apatite, fluorite, and nickel. Despite the war, Ukraine holds the largest titanium reserves in Europe (7% of the world’s reserves). It is one of the few countries that mine titanium ores, crucial for the aerospace, medical, automotive and marine industries. Before February 2022, Ukraine was a key titanium supplier for the military sector. It also has one of Europe’s largest confirmed lithium reserves (estimated at 500,000 tons), vital for batteries, ceramics, and glass. Ukraine is the world’s 5th largest gallium producer, essential for semiconductors and LEDs, and has been a major producer of neon gas, supplying 90% of the highly purified, semiconductor-grade neon for the US chip industry.

Ukraine boasts confirmed deposits of beryllium, which is crucial for nuclear power, aerospace, military, acoustic and electronic industries, as well as uranium, which is essential for nuclear and military sectors. Zirconium and apatite are vital for nuclear and medical production. Additionally, Ukraine holds significant reserves of nonferrous metals such as copper (4th in Europe), lead (5th), zinc (6th), and silver (9th). Nickel deposits (215 thousand tons) and cobalt (8.8 thousand tons) are found in the secure Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Ukraine’s graphite reserves represent 20% of global resources. The country also ranks among the top 10 globally for minerals, including bromine, magnesium metal, manganese, peat, pig iron and kaolin, among others.

The world is on the brink of a sustainability-driven era. Goldman Sachs forecasts that by 2030, 72% of new vehicle sales in the EU and 50% in the US will be electric vehicles. This transition will markedly boost demand for critical raw materials such as lithium and cobalt, vital for battery and electric engine production. By 2030, EU demand for lithium could surge up to 21 times its 2020 levels, while the region’s import reliance on critical raw materials remains high due to limited domestic mining capacity. Ukraine can become a vital part of the global supply chain for critical materials, acting as a strategic partner to create more resilient supply chains. Its potential spans sectors, such as agriculture, energy, raw materials and military-industrial capabilities. Europe should continue facilitating Ukrainian exports; Ukraine’s accession could bolster the EU’s industrial resilience and green transition by increasing domestic critical raw materials sourcing.

The European Commission highlighted Ukraine as a significant global supplier of titanium and a potential source of over 20 critical raw materials for the EU. Last year, a strategic partnership was launched to integrate Ukraine’s raw material supply into the emerging battery value chain. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s mining and metal complex contributed approximately 10% of its gross domestic product and 33% of its exports. Despite ongoing hostilities, the mining sector remains attractive to investors, offering auctions for mineral extraction rights. The country’s vast, untapped resources, including lithium and copper, are crucial for recovery and future growth.

In response to geopolitical resource dependency, the United States and the EU promote on-shoring and friend-shoring strategies to source resources domestically or from allies. Access to Ukrainian resources could help democratic countries achieve greater autonomy from non-democratic regimes, particularly in energy and technology. Recently, Ukraine began auctioning exploration permits for lithium, copper, cobalt and nickel, offering lucrative investment opportunities in refining critical raw materials. These investments can drive Europe’s green transition and support Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction and reintegration.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I go with what they analysed both on TV, and in various print/web media. The number of mines is not the relvant thing but how each is in reserves it holds. And the majoirty of those reserves of precious earths (not number of mines) is concentrated in the Donbass and Donezk region. So it is with coal which you seem to underestimate, Ukrainian economy was and still is runnigngon coal significantly, so are ironworks. What the bright future of welath and glory will bring remains to be seen but until then Ukraine depends heavily on coal, last but not least for ironworks and steel making. Eelecgtric power production alone based to over one third on coal before the war (38%). And for steelmilling they need not just any black coal, but a certain type of coal that they have lost the last mine for to the Russians just a week or two ago. They have NONE of tnta anymore, currently. It will and already does have an effect on their steel production and that hampers defense production as well - SIGNIFICANTLY. When that mining town fell Western experts speculated that they could lose over 50% of their steel milling capacity if they do not manage to get the needed kind of coal from other coutnries. They need to buy that sort of coal offshore, which costs them much money, and time.



Every child knows that Donbass and Donezk was and is the centre of their mining industry for coal, much of their gas, and steel milling. Asov Steel was one of the biggest steel producers there was, internationally.



They have also lost a very big part of their agricultural sector, namely sunflower, wheat. And Russia wants to defend what many see as dominant role in internaitonal wheat production. Some said already at the beginning of the war that this was a factor in the decision to go to war: to neutralise Ukriane as a rival in wheat trade and get control over their wheat production. Estimations vary what ammount of wheat production now is lost to Russia, but considering that Saporischja and Cherson were the two leading oblasts in national wheat production, Crimea also was very important, and even Donbass and Donezk contributed significant ammounts to the national harvest per year, and considering further the ammount of territories occupied by Russia in these five oblasts, estimations vary between one third and one half of Ukraine'S total wheat harvest now being in hands of Russia. Or better, Ukraine lost one third to one half of its former national wheat capacity, since russia does not farm and harvest all occupied agricultural soils currently (but could so after a seize fire), but only partly does so.

Problems have been piling up rapidly for Europe's steel industry in recent years. International steel prices are low due to overproduction from China, while energy and labour have become significantly more expensive in recent years. Slowly but surely, European companies are losing market share and scaling back production. This is happening at Tata Steel in IJmuiden, and certainly also in Duisburg. Of the 11.5 million tonnes of steel Thyssen can make, around 9 million has been achieved in recent years (about a quarter of total German steel production). ThyssenKrupp suffered a €1.6bn loss in 2023 due to its steel division, and a serious loss has already been announced for 2024 as well.

That the world does not necessarily end when certain industry disappears, they know better than anyone else in the Ruhr region. The silent witnesses of the vanished coal and steel industry there are now a tourist attraction, with the main attraction being the former coal mine Zeche Zollverein in Essen, some 20 kilometres from where the black giant still smokes. Now Unesco World Heritage Site, between 1851 and 1985 one of the largest coal mines in the Ruhr region. On the coal reserves still lying beneath the Ruhr, the German economy could run for hundreds more years. But coal from China and South America is now cheaper. Six years ago, Germany's last coal mine closed.

It was not just coal mining that disappeared abroad, as a 2002 film in Zeche Zollverein's museum shows. Dozens of Chinese men in blue suits and crash helmets are dropped off in buses at the Dortmunder Westfalenhütte. Cutting torches are used to dismantle the disused steel plant, after which the parts are transported. In Qingdao and Shangjian, the plant gets a second life. So now these factories relocated from Germany threaten the German original.

[Skybird]

Different to Duisburg, Ukraine must survive a WAR, and it must survive it NOW.


When economic analysts familiar witgh the steel market situaitons on the globe said after that mining town falling to Russia that this means Ukraine looses around 50% of its so far remaining still milling capacit, I am not in a position of better knowledge to argue with them, and when they further say that this will have a dramatic effect on arms and armour production inside Ukriane if they cannot replace the loss of this special coal, I have no better argument to tell them its not that bad as they claim.

[Dargo]

You still not see that since 2013 Ukraine does not use the Donetsk coal it became cheaper to import also for steel production the price is too low China is dumping all kind of materials on the markets it is cheaper to import. The investments in mines and steel it too expensive because China and India with state capital determine the price of coal and steel at the moment. Ukraine has many other options in the rare minerals that they even not started to explore, where the real revenue is to finance this war. That is where the west comes in by capital investments, western technology, both can make big profits and gain key industrial security against the anti-west block.