Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

So Russia's advancing is being slowed down, if he is right



Markus

[Skybird]

By now, even the EU should have understood why, over the last 10-15 years, the Russians have been spying on and mapping the cable networks in the Baltic Sea in a rather blatant manner - and sometimes even covertly, by submarine.


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[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

I believe it when I see/hear about it



Markus

[Skybird]

[exxpress] Colonel Reisner paints a grim picture: "Ukraine is losing this war"

According to Colonel Markus Reisner, the next three months could seal Ukraine's fate. Time is on Russia's side, while Ukraine is running out of soldiers and resources. Russia is advancing inexorably, especially in the Donbass - a possible breakthrough in Pokrovsk could have devastating consequences.

Almost three years after the start of the Ukraine invasion, Colonel Markus Reisner paints a grim picture: "Let me make one thing clear: time is on Russia's side, while it is running away from Ukraine. Ukraine is losing this war. The images from the front clearly show that."

While Donald Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, former General Keith Kellogg, is supposed to push ahead with negotiations in the next hundred days, the question arises "whether Ukraine can even hold out for these three months," warned Reisner in an interview with ZDF and ntv.

You can see "that the Russians are advancing steadily. Several square kilometers are conquered every day. In the Donbass in particular, there are attempts to advance from the west via the town of Bakhmut. South of the town, the oblast border is within three to four kilometers." If Russia reaches this border, "that would be another important victory that can be sold in the information space. That would motivate the population and show that they are on the advance."

Ukraine's biggest challenge is the availability of soldiers: "Many units, such as battalions with around 450 to 500 men or brigades with 3,500 to 4,000 men, are severely depleted and often only 40 to 50 percent ready for battle." In addition, "the front is extremely extensive. There are small bases with platoon or company strength, i.e. 30 to 80 soldiers. There are large gaps in between that the Russians use to infiltrate, infiltrate and advance. In this way, the defense is being torn away bit by bit.”

So Russia continued this war of attrition relentlessly: “In the West, it may seem as if there is ‘nothing new in the East’, but in fact the Russian advance towards the West is progressing day by day.” The fact that this is happening so slowly is also due to the daily use of many thousands of drones on both sides. “These drones make it possible to observe exactly what the other side is doing – there is the so-called ‘transparent battlefield’. This makes it almost impossible to deploy large units and go into maneuvers with them, as they are already being fought during deployment.”

In order to launch an attack, tanks would have to be brought together and formations formed. “However, if this is recognized in advance, it cannot be implemented. That is why we are seeing attacks in small groups - including in Ukraine, which is currently attempting counterattacks, especially in the Pokrovsk region."

But the Russians have now made considerable progress and there is now a threat of an "operational breakthrough" that could trigger panic on the Ukrainian side: "If you look at the front, you can see that the front lines that still existed after the fighting in 2014 have largely been lost. Russia was able to break through the second line last year. Now we see that the third line is being targeted at Pokrovsk." Pokrovsk is an important base, and "if this third line is breached, there will only be loose bases stretching from Pokrovsk to Dnipro."

Pokrovsk is an "important, functioning logistics hub from which one can advance far into the depths." If the Russian forces there manage to "break free from the grip of Ukrainian drones and gain space," it could be devastating: "Behind Pokrovsk there is almost only open land, flat fields and rows of trees that separate the fields from each other. Russia could advance relatively quickly here. There are fears that a breakthrough could trigger panic."

In total, a million soldiers were wounded and killed

Immediately on the front, one sees a "balance of forces of around 700,000 men on the Russian side to around 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers." According to estimates based on all available data, a total of one million soldiers have been killed on both sides. On the Russian side, there is talk of around 100,000 to 140,000 soldiers killed and around 400,000 wounded. On the Ukrainian side, there are around 80,000 to 100,000 killed and around 400,000 wounded. The numbers are enormous, and I have not yet mentioned the civilian casualties."
At the moment, Ukraine is still using drones to fight the Russian military. It "manages to keep the Russians at a distance by using kamikaze drones. Ukraine has a good picture of the situation and reconnaissance, despite limited resources. Through the targeted use of drones, it can deal decisive blows to the Russians. This means that the slow advance of the Russians is becoming apparent. But when you are faced with an opponent like Russia, which apparently does not care much about its own losses, as we see with North Korean soldiers, then Ukraine's ability gradually wears out. In the end, the grammar of the war of attrition comes into play, in which the quantity is decisive and not the quality of the weapons systems or soldiers used.”
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[mapuc]

Fear he may be right and I also hope he's wrong.

Markus

[Skybird]

The German politologist and expert for Russia Christian Osthold recently wrote in an essay for AdG:
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The assumption that economic pressure cannot persuade Putin to make concessions is too simplistic. Although the Kremlin publicly emphasizes the stability of the Russian economy, the intensive adjustments by the central bank since the beginning of the war show that economic realities are by no means ignored. Measures such as inflation control, interest rate increases and interventions in foreign exchange trading are clear indicators that the war is leaving deep scars on Russia's economy - and Putin is forced to respond to them.

Putin's goal of creating a pro-Russian Ukraine is also not as irrefutable as it seems. The Kremlin has long accepted that Kiev will no longer turn to Russia. Instead, Putin is pursuing a political victory: the retention of the occupied territories and the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO. These goals shape Russia's war conduct far more than the illusion of political rapprochement. The fact that Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian cities underscores this focus - an escalation that can hardly be explained by a long-term desire for friendly relations.

The portrayal of Putin as an irrational ideologue is also too simplistic. If one ignores the decision to lead Russia into a war for which it was not adequately prepared, Putin has distinguished himself in other areas through calculated and considered actions. He has reacted with prudence to military escalations, such as the shelling of Russian targets in the heartland with ATACMS. His rationality is also and especially evident in his willingness to accept Trump's invitation to negotiations.

Volodymyr Zelenskyj knows this too. On January 23, during a state visit to Chişinău, the Ukrainian president stated that he could imagine negotiations with Putin on the condition that Trump gave Ukraine security guarantees. He also said he was open to talks even if Ukraine did not return to the 2022 borders - a position that Kyiv had previously considered an indispensable prerequisite. Opposition Verkhovna Rada MP Oleksandr Dubinsky commented that Trump had made Zelensky “squirm like an eel in a frying pan.”
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"the retention of the occupied territories and the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO", he wrote. These words in my opinion now describe exactly the Russian goals for a continuation of the war, and I think it is like this since longer time already. In other words, this is the definition of a victory for Russia. And since all this means enormous territorial and economic losses for Ukraine, not to mention the many deaths and the enormous destruction in the rest of the country, noboy should be so foolish to try reframing this as a Ukrainian "victory". It isn't, and never will be. Its a defeat, and an enormous loss.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

[Neue Zürcher Zeitung] Major General Michailo Drapati, one of the most capable officers, is taking over command of the Eastern Front. He has to solve huge problems.

It is a brutal start to the year that Ukraine is experiencing in the Donbass. Whether in Velika Novosilka or in Toretsk, in Chasiv Yar or at Liman and Pokrovsk: the Russians are advancing slowly but steadily. Last week they captured Velika Novosilka, an important fortress town in the south. The Ukrainians were temporarily surrounded and could only retreat with losses. Now, to the north of it, Toretsk, another town that has served as a bulwark against Moscow's aggression since 2014, is about to fall.




The importance of these places is not only great because the Ukrainians have been building a system of defensive positions here since 2014. Cities such as Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, which the Russians now also control in the majority, are located on hills and on important connecting roads. If they fall, Moscow can also open fire on the defenders' hinterland and cut off supplies on a broad basis. The Donbass front is under more pressure than ever before in the last two and a half years. A liberation strike would be urgently needed for Kiev, both militarily and politically.

At least in terms of personnel, President Selensky made a decision on Sunday that military experts see as a significant improvement: He appointed the army commander, Major General Mikhailo Drapati, as the new head of the Khortizia regional command. This is responsible for the entire front section south of Kharkiv to the Donetsk region, i.e. practically the entire east.

Selensky has high hopes for 42-year-old Drapati, who has been fighting in the army almost continuously for over ten years. The western Ukrainian became known throughout the country in May 2014 as the commander of the "flying armored personnel carrier": at the time, he broke through a blockade by Russian-backed separatists in Mariupol, who were besieging the local police station. Drapati and his 72nd mechanized brigade played a decisive role in ensuring that the city remained Ukrainian.

A month later, he and his troops were caught in the so-called Iswarine pocket during a risky operation on the border between the Luhansk region and Russia. There, one of the most momentous Ukrainian defeats of the first phase of the war occurred. However, Drapati was one of the few to lead his unit out of the encirclement. In the years that followed, he took command of the 58th Brigade and continued his training. After the Russian invasion in 2022, the officer, who had since been promoted to brigadier general, commanded defensive operations in Krivi Rih and Odessa before becoming deputy chief of the general staff in early 2024.



Drapati is considered a capable organizer, a reputation that he further cemented in the spring of 2024: At that time, he took command of the Kharkiv sector of the front, where the defense was initially chaotic after Russia's surprise advance. As a young officer who owes his career not to good relationships but primarily to his skills on the battlefield, Drapati is respected by experts and popular in the troops.

They also credit him with communicating more openly than is usual in the Ukrainian generals, who tend to be optimistic and secretive. When he took over command of the army at the end of November, Drapati announced reforms in recruitment and practical training. There should be no more corruption, and the infantry's equipment must be significantly improved.

He thus addressed the central problems. He also spoke plainly about the scandal surrounding the 155th Brigade, which was trained and equipped with French help. The fact that the critical military journalist Yuri Butusov led a semi-official investigation into the misconduct and published the results was probably only possible because of his close relationship with Drapati.

Nevertheless, the Ukrainians should not be under any illusions that the enormous problems on the Eastern Front will simply disappear with a more capable commander. The lack of infantry is largely due to the fact that mobilization is taking place without a clear plan, richer Ukrainians can buy their way out, and soldiers in the army are only discharged if they are seriously wounded. The lack of communication between different units is also due to the fact that there is a high level of fluctuation in the higher-level regional command in Khortytsia without clear responsibilities. Drapati, who has now gained a reputation as a "fire extinguisher" on the most difficult sections of the front, therefore has little time to remedy the situation.

First of all, the new commander must ensure that the retreat from Velika Novosilka does not turn into an uncontrolled flight. If Toretsk and Chasiv Yar fall further north, the Russian advance towards the last Donbass strongholds of Kostyantinivka and Kramatorsk could accelerate: in the flat steppe there are few natural obstacles outside the fortified towns, and the Ukrainians have so far found it difficult to build strong defensive lines in the fields. It is therefore quite possible that the fighting will soon spread to the Dnipropetrovsk region west of the Donbass.
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[Skybird]

Charade.


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Stories like this illustrate clearly where Europe's real loyalties and priorities are.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

[mapuc]

Markus