War with Iran?

[Happy Times]

Originally Posted by Abraham

Is everybody starting to reveil confidential information here?

Wel i dont have anything to reveil, i was referring to what SmokinTep might of ment in his comment.

[Abraham]

Originally Posted by Happy Times

Wel i dont have anything to reveil, i was referring to what SmokinTep might of ment in his comment.

We are not scapegoating a fellow forum member, are we?

[Happy Times]

Originally Posted by Abraham

We are not scapegoating a fellow forum member, are we?

LOL No.

[Happy Times]

"If there's one thing Hampton Roads is noted for, it is military might. The region's strategic East Coast location has helped it accumulate the world's largest concentration of naval operations. It also has bases representing every branch of the U.S. Armed Forces as well as the Armed Forces Staff College and the headquarters for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The region also has Army, Air Force and Marine bases as well as major Coast Guard operations. Nearly a third of the region's workers earn a paycheck from the Department of Defense or a private defense contractor. It's only been a decade or so since 45 percent of all area paychecks came from the federal government" http://www.insiders.com/vabeach/main-overviews2.htm

• Norfolk has the world's largest Navy base.
  
  Portsmouth is home to the world's biggest ship-repair yard.
  
  Suffolk is the Peanut Capital of the world.

Offcourse it could be that be that SmokingTep is speaking about peanuts :hmm: :rotfl:

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Abraham

@ Skybird:
Two questions:
1. Does this mean you would support an Israeli or US pre-emptive strike if Iran continues it's current nuclear program unchecked?
2. Could that attack in your opinion be a tactical nuclear strike if a conventional strike would do unsufficient damage?

1. Not currently, not yet, with regard to the situation as I know it (and noone of us has the complete picture, right). And anyway, I said days ago, and still say, I doubt that a conventional strike could bring the results wanted.

2. No. The use of nukes in this scenario is a hypothetical option that I mentioned as the only way to stop the program IF ONE REALLY WANTS TO STOP IT, no matter what the cost would be. For me the price is too high until I am convinced that Ahmadinejadh is more than just a figure appearing and dissapearing. Would you be the one to decide the killing of some dozen million people, even if you don't like them, on the basis of assumptions about what the future will bring - maybe? It is uncomfortable, but I totally and completely reject for myself to even consider the option of a "preemptive nuclear strike". Before I make myself one of the biggest massmurderers in human history I demand more substantial and solid info about what the future would bring, could bring, maybe, likely, eventually, probably, whatever.

As a matter of fact, Iran is too important for almost all Westerneuropean nations (energy, export market), and it has a major importance for the US as well. The Iranians said some time ago "You need us more than we do need you." Unfortunately they are absolutely right. There will be no support from China and little or no support from Russia for a scenario West against Iran. For the time beeing we better prepare for living with a nuclear armed and thus unattackable Iran that by possession of nukes is capable to ignore the West to it's liking and deal with it's inner opposition more robust than in the past years without having to fear that the West would risk a substantial interference. This will affect negotiations on many other issues as well, economy, "culture exchange", more special rioghts for Islamic expansion in Europe. the whole thing is to the disadvantage of the West, and it also cuts away at American demand for hegemony, enforcing American values and undisputed global power. Iran already is due to it's economy, population size, relatively progressive education system, relatively good status for the young, modern females, and it'S military (yes, their military, compared to regional standards!) the dominating regional power that casts it's shadow over all it's neighbours and states at the gulf. they plan to expandt their current strength, and I expect them to be very successful in that.

I'm still not sure how much support Ahmadinejad has outside the revolutionary guards, military and intel community. If the young males in general of Iranian society will stay and rally behind him, that would be a dangerous thing, and then he would establish a tradition of hard determination in Iranian politics that would lead beyond his own term(s). If he is just an opportunist that comes out as looser of the next elections, things will settle down a bit. So far he is only a murderous little boy with a big ego, shouting loud because he earns applaus for behaving like the bully of the block. If he turns into a longer-lasting phenomenon or not is one of the deciding issues.

If there will be a military strike, I expect it to be coming from Israel, beeing faster than the US. I think the chance of Israel striking in the forseeable future currently is far higher than the chance that it will practice self-restraint. Since it will be a conventional strike, I assume, they will only cause some minor delay, but by far miss their objective of stopping the program for a long time. After that strike, they will pay the price. I expect to hear of that event taking place anyday within the next months or one or two years, at best.

These paragraphs decribe in short what I consider to be the most likely scenario, currently.


@Konovalov,

Musharaf does not qualify for an orthodox Muslim, doesn't he. He can'T be like that, because he willingly cooperates with the West which is impossible for traditional Islamic self-understanding as long as it is no deception allowd by Islam to gain advantages by that or hindering an enemy to exploit a current Islamic weaknes; and he fights against the orthodoxy inside Pakistan that repeatedly agitated against him on the streets. the Pakistani secret service spends quite some efforts to protect Musharaf from assassination, which already had been attempted repeatedly from inside and outside of Pakistan. There were riots, violance, and local fighting since the Afghanistan war. I want Musharaf in power for the same reason I think it is a folly to press Egypt to allow more democracy. Mubarak is a harmless dictator to the outside of his country, and keeps the religious fanatics under tight control with the only tool by which this can be acchieved: unforgiving force. When he gave in to American pressure and allowed more democracy, the last election immediately produced an ultra-right religious party to become the strongest legal opposition, plus gaining inlfuence for the Muslim Brotherhood. These groups in power or grabbing for power is not in our interest.

[Iceman]

Deleted out of sake of Subsimers....What a World we live in...

If anyone thinks that these riders are not riding high in the world they are mistaken I am afraid....

Drought and war create dire situation

Friday, January 6, 2006; Posted: 4:02 p.m. EST (21:02 GMT)

(AP) -- An estimated 11 million people in the Horn of Africa "are on the brink of starvation" because of severe drought and war, with some deaths already being reported in Kenya, the United Nations said Friday.

That horsemen with the balances in his hand I think is the worst plague of all...Famine.

It said more than $40 million in aid was needed to stave off starvation.

and the Irony that does make me cringe is Americas powerball has that covered sitting in a lottery...$ 87 Million
$ 43.1 Million Cash Value ....The next drawing will be Wednesday, January 18th, 2006...That right there is the condemnation that awaits...when those who have that kind of money in there back pockets have and don't give it up to save a life....

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No. The use of nukes in this scenario is a hypothetical option that I mentioned as the only way to stop the program IF ONE REALLY WANTS TO STOP IT, no matter what the cost would be. For me the price is too high until I am convinced that Ahmadinejadh is more than just a figure appearing and dissapearing. Would you be the one to decide the killing of some dozen million people, even if you don't like them, on the basis of assumptions about what the future will bring - maybe? It is uncomfortable, but I totally and completely reject for myself to even consider the option of a "preemptive nuclear strike".

Some inspirational Winston Churchill quotes are in order:

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile - hoping it will eat him last."

"It is a mistake to try to look too far ahead. The chain of destiny can only be grasped one link at a time."

"One ought never to turn one's back on a threatened danger and try to run away from it. If you do that, you will double the danger. But if you meet it promptly and without flinching, you will reduce the danger by half."

"You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war."

[SmokinTep]

We're loading peanuts on a 688 as I write this...............

[Skybird]

AL,
the quoted paragraph misses the closing sentence of mine:

Before I make myself one of the biggest massmurderers in human history I demand more substantial and solid info about what the future would bring, could bring, maybe, likely, eventually, probably, whatever.

The following is about the inner logic of the already decided Iran "operation", and the Iraq war. The author os professor for philosophy, his center of work is terrorism and pressure of collective systems to share their decisions. German language, unfortunately.

http://www.heise.de/bin/tp/issue/r4/...802&mode=print
http://www.heise.de/bin/tp/issue/r4/...801&mode=print

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by SmokinTep

We're loading peanuts on a 688 as I write this...............

Surely you mean the SSN Jimmy Carter?!

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by Skybird

AL,
the quoted paragraph misses the closing sentence of mine:

Some of the quotes I posted relate to this as well.

Here's another relevant Churchill quote:

"I never worry about action, but only inaction."

And finally, let me spell it out for you with a quote from Douglas Adams, author of "The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy":

"If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family anatidae on our hands."

Or a slight anonymous variation of the above:

"If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, talks like a duck, it probably needs a little more time in the microwave."

[SmokinTep]

Originally Posted by The Avon Lady

Surely you mean the SSN Jimmy Carter?!

Actually, next month I have to take my crew out to Bangor and assess her systems and train Puget Sound Naval Shipyard people on the 21 class since they have never seen or worked on one.

[The Avon Lady]

Skybird, I forgot to mention that I believe that there are numerous conventional weapons and some non-conventional ones that are not nuclear, that may also be used in massive, likely multiple, attacks to cripple Iran's nuclear facilities.

[Skybird]

Hm, sorry, I don't believe in moving whole mountains. But that's just my novice thoughts.

If it could be done conventionally, the better it would be. I think it is too early for such action, but I would not oppose it with all determination.

[Happy Times]

Originally Posted by The Avon Lady

Surely you mean the SSN Jimmy Carter?!

Good one