Chinese carrier in landing and take-off tests

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

True, but the US is shifting to a Pacific focus following the introduction of new assets into the PLAN, hence why Australia is getting some US Marines coming to visit and some shiny new M1A1 Abrams to play with. Therefore, it would be very surprising if there wasn't at least one carrier at all times in the Yokohama region, after all there's not only the PRC but the DPRK to think about, plus operations towards Pakistan and up into the Gulf. With Egypt not sure what side it would be on in any conflict with Iran, sending a carrier group through the Suez would be a risky thing to do, so if I were America I'd look at bolstering somewhere like Diego Garcia up a bit as a good stopping off point and fuelling point for a CBG or two.

I honestly don't see NK or Pakistan posing that much of a threat but nor do I see Australia having the capability of defending herself without a strong US ally....same for us now unfortunately, unless things escalated to nuclear warfare....heaven forbid.

[Gerald]

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

Saab?

In Swedish,"Karlsson på taket"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karlsson-on-the-Roof

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Originally Posted by Karle94

Why be afraid of it? The J-15/SU-33 can`t take off with much fuel and arnament and is as such practically useless. Only cats can launch a plane fully fueled and armed. A feature only American and French carriers both present and future will have.

May I ask why you think so? I have not seen plans nor even concepts of future Chinese aircraft carriers.

Originally Posted by Oberon

The next two carriers are, I believe, under construction now or are due to be started very shortly.

From references section of Wikipedia's article "Chinese aircraft carrier programme"

7. ^ a b Global Times, "PLA Chief Confirms Vessel Is 'Under Construction'", 8 June 2011.

and article itself

On 7 June 2011, People's Liberation Army Chief of the General Staff Chen Bingde confirmed that China was constructing its own aircraft carrier. He stated he would provide no further details until it was complete.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

IMHO the Chinese are playing a waiting game whilst slowly building up their own military capability.

I DO NOT wish them success because it is possible that strategy will eventually lead to global conflict.

This is true, the last estimate I saw had their military capable of hitting Taiwan by about 2018, however I reckon they'll wait until at least 2020 before they do anything...IF they do anything.
As it stands, right now, they benefit more from peace than they do from war, and as long as that remains the case then China will not conduct nor provoke any major military confrontation.
Taiwan, as it stands, is one of the PRCs major trading partners, and it's own military is no slouch. Politically it's a mess, and on its own it wouldn't be able to resist the PRC steamroller for more than a month. However, its infrastructure and industries would be ruined and it would cost the PRC many millions or billions to get Taiwan up and running again, therefore it would be a loss for the PRC in the long run. A major propaganda victory to take the last strongholds of the KMT, but there would be a government in exile set up somewhere which would continue to promote the goals of the KMT so it would be a bit of a bust politically. Plus there's the possibility of an underground resistance movement sparking off troubles in the rural parts of China or through the more liberal youth of the cities.

What the PRC would like the most is if Taiwan would become a Special Administrative or Autonomous Zone like Hong Kong and Macau. That would keep the lucrative trade, prevent conflict and reduce the likelihood of a civilian uprising. So it's likely that any large military would be used to lean heavily on Taiwan to do this as the 'best option for both of us'.

Of course, for this strategy to work, they have to either push the US out of the way of the Taiwan straits, or have enough military force available to counter-act it. The hope is to be able to achieve all this without firing a shot, after all, as Sun Tzu said, 'To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.'

However, in places like the Spratleys and Vietnam, that's another matter entirely, I could see limited military force being used to achieve Chinese goals in these areas.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

This is true, the last estimate I saw had their military capable of hitting Taiwan by about 2018, however I reckon they'll wait until at least 2020 before they do anything...IF they do anything.
As it stands, right now, they benefit more from peace than they do from war, and as long as that remains the case then China will not conduct nor provoke any major military confrontation.
Taiwan, as it stands, is one of the PRCs major trading partners, and it's own military is no slouch. Politically it's a mess, and on its own it wouldn't be able to resist the PRC steamroller for more than a month. However, its infrastructure and industries would be ruined and it would cost the PRC many millions or billions to get Taiwan up and running again, therefore it would be a loss for the PRC in the long run. A major propaganda victory to take the last strongholds of the KMT, but there would be a government in exile set up somewhere which would continue to promote the goals of the KMT so it would be a bit of a bust politically. Plus there's the possibility of an underground resistance movement sparking off troubles in the rural parts of China or through the more liberal youth of the cities.

What the PRC would like the most is if Taiwan would become a Special Administrative or Autonomous Zone like Hong Kong and Macau. That would keep the lucrative trade, prevent conflict and reduce the likelihood of a civilian uprising. So it's likely that any large military would be used to lean heavily on Taiwan to do this as the 'best option for both of us'.

Of course, for this strategy to work, they have to either push the US out of the way of the Taiwan straits, or have enough military force available to counter-act it. The hope is to be able to achieve all this without firing a shot, after all, as Sun Tzu said, 'To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.'

However, in places like the Spratleys and Vietnam, that's another matter entirely, I could see limited military force being used to achieve Chinese goals in these areas.

Agreed....but my major concern remains eventual nuclear/global conflict.

I fear the Chinese are harbouring old scores they mean to settle which can only bring them into conflict with the main nuclear players in the west.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by jimbuna

I honestly don't see NK or Pakistan posing that much of a threat but nor do I see Australia having the capability of defending herself without a strong US ally....same for us now unfortunately, unless things escalated to nuclear warfare....heaven forbid.

I can't see either of them posing much of a threat either, but having a CBG in the area is enough to deter them from doing something monumentally stupid. The Norks have gone quiet again since Kim 2 died, I'm not sure if that's a good or a bad thing to be honest, you never can tell with the DPRK, but their military poses very little threat to even the ROK on its own.
Pakistan is playing a game that I don't think even Pakistan knows the outcome of, different parts of it trying to work with different people. I really don't know what they're playing at, but think it would probably be in our best interests to align more with India.

EDIT: In terms of a nuclear based conflict, I don't see China pushing for that since it will lose more than the US would in an exchange. It's a bigger country, yes, with a bigger population, true, but all of its major achievements lie in a cluster of coastal cities, there is a HUGE difference between the elite coastal cities and the poor rural interior, it's a bit like how it was in the UK in the industrial revolution where most of the countryside emptied into the cities looking for work and wound up in workhouses, only the workhouses in China are all owned by Apple and the like. China has quite a lot less nuclear warheads than the US does, so China could hit quite a few targets, but it would get a response that would put it back to the Feudal era. If, the US was stupid enough to get into a land based war with China then I could see nuclear weapons being potentially requested to stop the Chinese advance ala MacArthur, but even then it would be 50/50 if the release would be granted. After all, we were able to beat them back to the 38th parallel last time without resorting to buckets of sunshine, but admittedly this was the China of Mao, a completely different China to the one of today. Honestly there are too many variables to say for definite that a nuclear war would or would not happen...personally I couldn't see the PRC firing first, nor the US, both would be aware of the response that they would receive in terms of retaliation and global opinion, but there could certainly be situations arise where it could happen, just as there could have been during the Cold War, and almost were on a number of instances. Thankfully we have avoided that nightmare so far.

EDIT: EDIT: Thanks Kraznyi, that's what I thought I'd read. I have no idea if they're going to be CATOBAR or STOBAR, given the Liaoning is a STOBAR, as will be the Vikrant class carrier that the Indian navy is building, I'd hazard a guess that it'll be a STOBAR, but until the actual things are built or reliable info comes out it's hard to know for certain. Heck, I was under the impression that the Liaoning was going to be called the Admiral Shi Lang but for some reason they called it after the province it was made instead, probably politically motivated.

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by Oberon

This is true, the last estimate I saw had their military capable of hitting Taiwan by about 2018, however I reckon they'll wait until at least 2020 before they do anything...IF they do anything.
As it stands, right now, they benefit more from peace than they do from war, and as long as that remains the case then China will not conduct nor provoke any major military confrontation.
Taiwan, as it stands, is one of the PRCs major trading partners, and it's own military is no slouch. Politically it's a mess, and on its own it wouldn't be able to resist the PRC steamroller for more than a month. However, its infrastructure and industries would be ruined and it would cost the PRC many millions or billions to get Taiwan up and running again, therefore it would be a loss for the PRC in the long run. A major propaganda victory to take the last strongholds of the KMT, but there would be a government in exile set up somewhere which would continue to promote the goals of the KMT so it would be a bit of a bust politically. Plus there's the possibility of an underground resistance movement sparking off troubles in the rural parts of China or through the more liberal youth of the cities.

What the PRC would like the most is if Taiwan would become a Special Administrative or Autonomous Zone like Hong Kong and Macau. That would keep the lucrative trade, prevent conflict and reduce the likelihood of a civilian uprising. So it's likely that any large military would be used to lean heavily on Taiwan to do this as the 'best option for both of us'.

Of course, for this strategy to work, they have to either push the US out of the way of the Taiwan straits, or have enough military force available to counter-act it. The hope is to be able to achieve all this without firing a shot, after all, as Sun Tzu said, 'To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.'

However, in places like the Spratleys and Vietnam, that's another matter entirely, I could see limited military force being used to achieve Chinese goals in these areas.

Do you think once the "old guard" dies off, that they'll lose interest in Taking Taiwan by force? I agree 100% with you regarding the economic issues. The risk/reward seems to be too expensive. That's a lot of money to spend to have you're flag flying over them.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

Do you think once the "old guard" dies off, that they'll lose interest in Taking Taiwan by force? I agree 100% with you regarding the economic issues. The risk/reward seems to be too expensive. That's a lot of money to spend to have you're flag flying over them.

It is possible, certainly the PRC seems to be gradually opening itself up a bit more, letting certain expressions of discontent by the liberal youth slide more than they did thirty or even twenty years ago. So there is a gradual shift towards a more open state, in which it is likely that many of the next generation of political leaders would be more inclined to let sleeping Taiwanese dogs lie, and perhaps even move towards an official ending of the civil war. However that's something for thirty or forty years down the line. At the moment I think that there's only one faction in the PRC that would consider taking Taiwan by force as a good option and that's the hardline Maoists, they care little for the economic dreams of Deng and the prosperity it has brought parts of China, they will look at things along a more ideological line and that will bring them into direct conflict with Taiwan. Thankfully, the present men of power have done a good job of sidelining Maoists and hardliners, Bo Xilai is a good example of this, the son of one of the men who orchestrated the Tiananmen Square massacre, he is the champion of the 'Chinese New Left' who are a group that feel that modern China has lost touch with the communist ideals that it was founded on, his spectacular fall from power has set the New Left back significantly and prevented a potential threat to the status quo, the maintenance of which is vital to the current Politburo and the success of the PRC.
What concerns me is the global economic slowdown is beginning to effect the PRC, its growth rate is slowing faster than initially predicting by Chinese analysts, and if the bubble bursts in the manner in which it did in the West, then a lot of happy Communists are going to become unhappy Communists, which will give the Maoists the leverage they need to increase their popular support, which will make it harder for the current Politburo to sideline their members. The last thing that the PRC, and indeed the entire world, needs is a 1991 Moscow coup attempt in Beijing.