Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Their economy and money system cant show early enough signs of cracks and overburdening. When the war started, I guessed for myself that there was no way economic sanctions could seriuosuly put them in danger before 3-4 years. The overheating due to going to war economy I expected, but not on this scale as it is now. I still have doub ts, however, that these are the factors that will decide the war and force them to stop, nor do I see dangerous levelos of destabilising in civil society, by that I mean none that the regime could not deal with by use of brute force. And approval rates for Putin himself, his narratiuve of justice and glory, and for the war, still are high.


Russians are born fatalists after these many centuries of always the same. They have learned to suffer. And to bow to the state. The "democratic oppositions" always has been overestuimate in the wets, and never was as weak and as suppressed as it is currently. Putin must not react to it politically. Controlling it by the use of police measures will perfectly contain it.


I expect from Trump that he will stay unpredictable, and put both the candy and the whip on the table. Maybe Russia will start to move by a threat of the US to "disinhibit" its arms deliveries to Ukraine. Yet, its still Russia he is dealing with. Nobody should believe that Russia will move quickly and easily. - I do not believe that he will let Ukraine just drop like a too hot iron and leave it behind like many seem to fear, stopping all support and aid.

[Jimbuna]

I think the grass has grown too thick to let Trump simply walk away because amongst other things the loss of trust and credibility to the US would be quite damaging at home and abroad.

I also take note that the idiot from No 10 has taken the opportunity to visit Kyiv to try and score a few cheap brownie points.

[Skybird]

No coal - no steel.



https://www-nzz-ch.translate.goog/in...x_tr_hist=true

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No coal - no steel.



https://www-nzz-ch.translate.goog/in...x_tr_hist=true

No translation and you can only read a part of the article.

Would it mean the end of Ukrainian coal if Prokrovsk falls into Russian hands ?

There must be other places where Ukraine are mining coal.

Markus

[Dargo]

^Bollocks coal is so inefficiency (Natural gas is less expensive, cleaner and more efficient than coal. In addition to burning cleaner than coal, natural gas is cheap), we use natural gas and go to hydrogen for our steel production. Look at the steel prize it is low very low, China dumps it on the world market so converting to natural gas or hydrogen is the only way to produce efficient. The German steel industry is hanging by a thread. Demand for German steel has collapsed, and forecasts suggest the industry will not show signs of recovery until 2025. But even that will not be enough to return the industry to its pre-Corona boom days. The problems are mainly attributed to fierce competition from China and falling steel prices. Same goes for Tata Steel, it will deinvest in their European steel production. So it is cheaper for Ukraine to import steel than make it with coal.

[Dargo]

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

^Bollocks coal is so inefficiency (Natural gas is less expensive, cleaner and more efficient than coal. In addition to burning cleaner than coal, natural gas is cheap), we use natural gas and go to hydrogen for our steel production. Look at the steel prize it is low very low, China dumps it on the world market so converting to natural gas or hydrogen is the only way to produce efficient.

May be so, it is however countries like China who use coal

https://www.worldometers.info/coal/c...on-by-country/

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

May be so, it is however countries like China who use coal

https://www.worldometers.info/coal/c...on-by-country/

Markus

China can produce that way only because the state subsidize it, they have deep pockets and the goal is to become 1st, all financed by the state. Rising exports from 2023-2024 led to global oversupply, price drops, and tariffs, prompting China to halt new steel mill approvals and encourage overseas investments. China's central government has also worked to phase out unprofitable "zombie" companies while pushing for stricter environmental controls on steel production. China produced over 1 billion tonnes of crude steel in 2022, 52.9% of the world's total production. Ukrainian iron and steel industry accounts for around 2% of worldwide crude steel output.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

No translation and you can only read a part of the article.

Would it mean the end of Ukrainian coal if Prokrovsk falls into Russian hands ?

There must be other places where Ukraine are mining coal.

Markus

Ah, NZZ at it again, I forgot.

Pokrovsk has three main mines for coal, the first of it was shut down already in mid-Decembre, the last one around New years eve. That is a problem because it is a sort of coal they need for steel production. Importing this special coal puts even more strain on their finances, is expensive, and cannot compensate the loss in full. Steel production therefore is expected to drop by one half and even two thirds. If things go wrong, even more. This effects both export steel, and production for military demand. The coal production cannot be shifted to another mine - there is none left.

They have started to blow up the mine tunnels so that Russians cannot use them to infiltrate, or to hide in ambush. No need for civilians (=workers) being around anymore, the city is almost completely evacuated now and taken over by the military.

Again, Ukraine has lost its last coal production suitable for fuelling steel making. And even if the mine were still open, Russia has disrupted the railway lines to transport it, the railway is under full shelling, any remaining stockpiles of coal have been stopped to get moved out already weeks ago.

It is now expected that the Russians will not try to take the city but simply will completely obliterate it by bombing it into oblivion, like they did with other cities before. Ukrainians expect it will be wiped off the map like said cities before.

Dargo, with all sympathy for your bright future vision and ideal design of an energy infrastructure that is environment friendly and sexy - but what Ukraine needs is not what maybe will be in a couple of years (or not, look at their fiscal status), but what they need NOW. Their remaining steel production is like it is: coal-depending. Wrong time to follow the German way and blow up your powerplants. Those they still have, I mean, which are not that many. 90% of their energy production is gone. Not just damaged and repairable, but destroyed.

They needed that coal desperately. Donbass was the centre of coal mining.

[Dargo]

The top exports of Ukraine are Corn ($6.02B), Seed Oils ($5.54B), Wheat ($3.27B), Iron Ore ($2.97B), and Rapeseed ($1.55B), exporting mostly to Poland ($6.7B), Romania ($3.94B), Turkey ($3.02B), China ($2.6B), and Germany ($2.43B). Agricultural products are Ukraine's most important exports. In 2021, they totalled $27.8 billion, accounting for 41 percent of the country's $68 billion in overall exports. Ukraine is normally the world's top producer of sunflower meal, oil, and seed and the world's top exporter of sunflower meal and oil. So no they do not need coal, they have plenty of natural gas or can make hydrogen. On the moment, it is cheaper to buy steel than to make it with the surplus on the world market. In March 2017, the Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko signed a decree that banned the movement of goods to and from territories controlled by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, which stopped coal from the Donets Black Coal Basin being used in the rest of the country. So after 7 years they now suddenly need it to survive, yeah ppfff.

[Dargo]

Putin has just signed a decree to call up Russian reservists for military training in 2025.




MOSCOW, January 16. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed an annual decree, calling up military reservists for training in 2025, according to the document uploaded to the national database of legislative acts. Russian citizens in reserve are to be called up for military training in the Armed Forces, the National Guard, state protection bodies and the federal security service, reads the decree uploaded to the portal of legal information. The Russian government and regional authorities are instructed to ensure the implementation of measures related to the call-up of citizens for military training and the conduct of these training sessions. The decree is effective as of the day of its publication. The training of Russian reservists is a routine activity conducted annually. The decree on the call-up of reserve servicemen for training is signed by the Russian president. On the basis of the decree of the head of state, the mobilization department of the Defense Ministry prepares a corresponding directive to the military enlistment centers in regions. After that the distribution of summonses to reservists begins. https://tass.com/defense/1900377

[mapuc]

Dargo wrote:
"president Petro Poroshenko signed a decree that banned the movement of goods to and from territories controlled by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, which stopped coal from the Donets Black Coal Basin being used in the rest of the country."

I guess this decree was removed when he was kicked out from office which happened around 2014. Could it not be so that they started to use this coal in the rest of the country after 2014 ?

Markus

[Dargo]

^He was in office, 7 June 2014 – 20 May 2019. Poroshenko actively and financially supported the Euromaidan protests between November 2013 and February 2014. You got the rong prez

[Jimbuna]