Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

The US has a VETO right in target selection for the HIMARS batteries because this was the deal to prevent escalation globally

Nevertheless the Ukriane hangs at the drip of thew West and vitally depends on the good will of the US.



And the will of the US can - and sometimes does: ask Afghans - change. Biden will not be the next president anymore, so much I am certain of.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Numerically, Russia still has the egde. Roughly by around 10:1, media usually say. And it still has many reserves across all Russia, that it so far has not started to touch, not wanting to compromise its military presence in these other regions, too.



That could change, maybe. And if their stand becomes too desperate, I do not rule out they even consider tactical nukes. I see that risk if Crimean becomes liberated by Ukraine. What Putin (or Lavrov) recently said about not using nukes first (just weeks ago they implied the opposite), does not interest me. I do not waste time listening to them anymore, they are lying from first to last hour of the day.

You are counting the personnel that would be activated in a war as this is an operation only Russia only send contract soldiers to Ukraine, and they touched their reserves you can have numeral advances but if the moral is bad you do not have anything

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

You are counting the personnel that would be activated in a war as this is an operation only Russia only send contract soldiers to Ukraine, and they touched their reserves you can have numeral advances but if the moral is bad you do not have anything

Doesn't Putin have to declare full war on Ukraine in order to mobilize the reserve ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Nevertheless the Ukriane hangs at the drip of thew West and vitally depends on the good will of the US.



And the will of the US can - and sometimes does: ask Afghans - change. Biden will not be the next president anymore, so much I am certain of.

The west always depended on the US and yes policy can change, but both sides in the US are willing to support Russia will stay an enemy and threat to the US.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Doesn't Putin have to declare full war on Ukraine in order to mobilize the reserve ?

Markus

Reserve material, I meant they used a lot of their new stuff and I think if Putin could have mobilized he would have done it he fears he gets in trouble when does that.

[mapuc]

About Skybirds comment about Crimea and use of tactical nukes.

I truly hopes Skybird is wrong. Russia will not use nuke.

The question is how eager is the Ukrainian in liberating Crimea ?

Zelenskyy has said their goal is to push Russia back to how the border was 1991.

Here I'm 110 % Sure that Biden and UK will say-You have liberated what Russia toke in the 25th of February invasion now it's time to stop-Because you will not get anymore weapon and ammo from us.

Not meaning that Ukrainian wouldn't try to retake Crimea.

Markus

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Reserve material, I meant they used a lot of their new stuff and I think if Putin could have mobilized he would have done it he fears he gets in trouble when does that.

I think it was you who said He would get into a lot of problems on the homefront if he did that-started to mobilize the reserve.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I think it was you who said He would get into a lot of problems on the homefront if he did that-started to mobilize the reserve.

Markus

Not only me Russian people are not willing to sacrifice their sons and husbands also there is a large part that has the means leaving Russia.

[mapuc]

Take a look at this pro-Russian yt video



I like what one wrote in the comment field

"Napoleon said "Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake." I would love to see Russia isolate their own troops without supply. I want to see and end to this whole thing soon "

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

You are counting the personnel that would be activated in a war as this is an operation only Russia only send contract soldiers to Ukraine, and they touched their reserves you can have numeral advances but if the moral is bad you do not have anything

In artillery pieces Russia is and always will be superior by factors. So in tanks and IFVs, helicpoters, bombers. If they start to "cannibalise" units staged
at the border sof other parts of the Russia perimeter, they will have more platforms moving than there are HIMARS missiles to fire.


So far Puton tries to keep the bad side of war away form getting percieved from the orindary social middle class in the metropüoles by not mobilising. But a hige poart fo that class is supporting Putin. I never bought the claim that many Russians, a majority are agfainst himn, and just that thgeir voices get suprerssed. Now, if thigns go bad for Russia and they lose much of Ukriane again or even the Crimea, mobilization might become an option on the ground of telling narrations about NATO threatening the Rodina and that all Russians must unite to battle for the big Momma lik,e the forfvathersa did against the German Nazis, and aren't the ukrainians Nazis as well?


Lets face it, Russia has what it takes to show up with much longe rbreath than the Wetsenr support. And Western public's support is already waning. Germany saw in recent weeks a slow trend, but the recent poll, published just yesterday, shows a dramatic drop in willingness to support ukriane. And I predicted that, if you remember. 'Thge more the gas problem in Germany comes to the full awareness, the more the German willingness to support the war will drop as well. Physical needs trump idealism.



And it is like this in many other countries.


Also, the US. It has a strong opinion groupo in its civil society that sympathise with isolationsim and asking what this or other wars have to do with Amereic aand why Americna tax payer is endlessly paying for this. A populist and opportunist like Trump and many on the Republican side could very well consider pulling the plug on Ukrainian support and money transfers, even more so with the conflict with China sharpening up. Possible that such a president cuts ties even to Taiwan. In American politics, nothing could surprise me anymore - not after Trumps term and the years after that, and no folly or erosion I consider impossible to imagine to become reality.



That is the big dilemma that maybe will seal the West'S doom: that Europe desperately depends on America, but America having become completely untrustworthy and unpredictable, while Europe not being willing or capable to take care of its own military protection.



Well, I do not hide since years that I think Europe is falling, so I can leave it here.

[mapuc]

^ This is one of the reason to why Ukrainian forces is concentrating their HIMARS rockets, MLRS and M777 artillery on Russian weapon and fuel depot.

Cause they know Russia is outnumbering them when it comes to artillery and tanks.

Secondary targets for the Ukrainian is roads and bridges.

Ukrainian is hitting them where it hurt most.

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

Originally Posted by Skybird

but America having become completely untrustworthy and unpredictable, while Europe not being willing or capable to take care of its own military protection.

Don't know about other Americans, But this American is tired of bailing you out of situations you Europeans created!
Should have let you sink or swim back around July 28th, 1914

All you've done since is whine.

Maybe even left you living under Hitler's Rule or as a part of the USSR.
Seems the People in Power in your Country are in collusion with Putin anyway.

[MaDef]

I wouldn't go that far Jeff-Groves, but yeah, the majority of the people I know see the Russian/Ukrainian conflict as a primarily European problem, and Europe should take the lead on dealing with it.

[Skybird]

Sag ich doch!

Dont bite me, I did not mean to criticise you. Havent you noticed that I am tired of the Europeans porked priorities myself, top, and of the Germans? Whether US isolationism would be wise or even realistic, is something different, but the emotion wanting to stay out I can understand very well.

[Reece]

Sky is correct in saying this Jeff, He often talks down about "bumbling Olaf"