Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I have no doubt Russian economy is in a bad shape, very bad shape that is. Is it so severe that we may expect a collapse during 2025 or ?

The prediction of an economical collapse has been told since 2023.

Markus

All I can say damage is done this can not be reversed it is out of control of the central bank it can not solve this anymore the disaster loop is perfect and will damage the Russian economy for decades. Even a Russian military victory or cease fire will damage their economy more that will collapse in no time if there is no war anymore. Remember Tsar Nicholas II, it was over in a week because of a couple of hundred women demanding food and better living.

P.S. By military victory I mean the Donetsk Donbas nothing more he will ever get the Ukraine people will not allow more else there will be Ukraine blood in the streets of Kyiv by Ukrainians.

[mapuc]

There's a few videos on YT claiming that the Ruble have collapsed, like the person in this video.



Been trying to find reliable article without any luck.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

There's a few videos on YT claiming that the Ruble have collapsed, like the person in this video.

Been trying to find reliable article without any luck.

Markus

I found it 1 Russian Ruble equals 0.0089 Euro if that is not a collapse I do not know anymore in a normal economy it is not bad for a short time. For Russia, it is bad this will only go worse because they can not stop it and keep inflation in check they tried it for two years and failed there are no options to cure these problems. Sanctions work! If things were going great yep also military the rubble would be much, much higher there are signs if things go good or bad and this is THE BAD SIGN nobody want to invest in Russia not even the Russian elite even after a deal nobody will invest in this unreliable country so long this regime is in power.

November 29th, 2024

- Russians are getting destroyed in Syria.
- Assad is in Moscow begging for weapons.
- Russian defense minister is in Pyong Yang begging for weapons.
- Russia has the worst 24 hours of losses of the war in Ukraine - 2030 soldiers in a day.
- Georgians rising up against the Russisn-backed government.
- One of the worst months in history for the Russian ruble.

Things are not going well for the Moscow Gargoyle. https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1862586181973942767

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

I found it 1 Russian Ruble equals 0.0089 Euro if that is not a collapse I do not know anymore in a normal economy it is not bad for a short time. For Russia, it is bad this will only go worse because they can not stop it and keep inflation in check they tried it for two years and failed there are no options to cure these problems. Sanctions work! If things were going great yep also military the rubble would be much, much higher there are signs if things go good or bad and this is THE BAD SIGN nobody want to invest in Russia not even the Russian elite even after a deal nobody will invest in this unreliable country so long this regime is in power.

1 Ruble = 0.0089 Euro
If this is correct-which I have no doubt it is-then yes the Ruble have collapsed.

Markus

[Skybird]

Somebody is so desperate that he starts to prepare an exit strategy.


https://news.sky.com/story/zelenskyy...-land-13263085


Reality does not negotiate with interpretation. It simply is what it is. Interpret into it what you want, this does not change things. The decisive (mis)deeds where already done long time ago, they cannot be made undone.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

1 Ruble = 0.0089 Euro
If this is correct-which I have no doubt it is-then yes the Ruble have collapsed.

Markus

On the moment they spent it on a large scale because you never know how much it is worth tomorrow. Do not think it is a smart move, but then again I do not think highly of Russians... Oops, another problem LOL.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Somebody is so desperate that he starts to prepare an exit strategy.


https://news.sky.com/story/zelenskyy...-land-13263085


Reality does not negotiate with interpretation. It simply is what it is. Interpret into it what you want, this does not change things. The decisive (mis)deeds where already done long time ago, they cannot be made undone.

Which I interpreter as both countries in the war have huge problems.

Ukraine has military problems on the battlefield
Russia have problems with the economy.

I have been told the one who seeks ceasefire is the one who has most problem at the front.

Markus

[Dargo]

Russian occupying forces are deserting and leaving their positions in Kherson Oblast.

This was reported on Nov. 28 by the partisan movement Atesh, citing its agent. The informant reported “mass desertion cases in the 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade on the Dnipro River front.” The cause of the desertion is the “arbitrariness” by the occupiers’ commanders. This includes group beatings, threats of being sent on “one-way” missions, round-the-clock duty, and the absence of promised payments. Unwilling to tolerate this, the occupiers are “abandoning their positions.” According to the Atesh agent, some soldiers are seeking help from human rights organizations through their families, “but so far, there has been no response.” “Such cases are not uncommon in the occupiers’ army, but in the 205th brigade, they have reached mass proportions,” the partisans claim.

It was previously reported that over a thousand occupiers from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of Russia deserted from the war against Ukraine. A list prepared by the command, which journalists gained access to, revealed over a thousand soldiers from the division, including contract soldiers, mobilized personnel, and conscripts.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Which I interpreter as both countries in the war have huge problems.

Ukraine has military problems on the battlefield
Russia have problems with the economy.

I have been told the one who seeks ceasefire is the one who has most problem at the front.

Markus

So losing more than you can mobilize per month including equipment is no problem? Russia has beside economic problems also military problems it also is highly depended on it allies for munition and equipment Russia is weaker than we know, but that it is the weaker side is a fact. Both Russia and Ukraine can do a long war if Ukraine is willing to scarify, all is another ... but it is not a weakness to seek a ceasefire. For a ceasefire it will demand a NATO security else it will never happen the Ukraine people will utterly never accept rule under the Russians, again any politician proposing this will be hanged at the nearest tree by Ukraine people. Soviet power was based on Ukraine, without Ukraine no USSR this will never happen again, never! Russia must send a tenfold force into Ukraine to keep it under control Russia will never have a peaceful night for decades if they want to control Ukraine.

[Skybird]

Don't allow yourself to be fooled by these stupid videos, they are propaganda. The Russians are in control of the offensive, the undisputed momentum is theirs and since months. They are advancing faster and faster. In the Donbass, there is the threat of a huge operational breakthrough at any time; to the west of the front at Pokrovsk is mostly open steppe, with no defensive lines. The Ukrainian brigades in the east have 50% of their target strength at best, most of them much less, troop rotation is practically non-existent in many places because there are no more reserves. The Russians are leaking through the front everywhere, according to pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian bloggers.

Things are looking bad for Ukraine, and getting worse every day. I think we see the culminating and decisive phase of the war. I see higher than 50% chances that the war will come to a temporary end in 2025. It will not be peace, however.


If the Russian take Prokovsk, and they will, they have 150 km of undefended terrain ahead of them, until river Dnjepr. I do not see how Ukraine could operationally recover from that fiasco. And this scenario is not just one amongst many - its the most likely scenario currently.

[Dargo]

Again the "If the Russian take... then ...." (becomes very boring yawn) after several "if" cities they're still crawling in the Donetsk Donbas this Donbas will not be taken so fast but if they would who cares this Donbas is already lost shot into rubble and left by majority of Ukraine people there is no win in this region not economical or military. If it cost your economy and huge part of your military, it is for die buhne this does not make Russia great. Ukraine will stay be rebuilt, they have the resources to rebuild all industry that are destroyed and razed by Russian in the occupied regions. It was Ukraine that was the engine, brain and food supplier of the USSR, they can do it tenfold Russia not. Saying Ukraine has no reserves is not true, it still has reserves at this moment on route to the Prokovsk front and other critical areas. And they will be sooner at the front than Russia can send troops, Ukraine is still in the inner circle of the front line.

Russian advances … do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian front line if Putin had a couple of armored divisions we should be far more worried, but Russian do not seem to have a mobile reserve. When you get a breakthrough, you want to exploit it with rapid armored maneuver by trained and experienced people, but Putin’s putting barely trained people into the front. Russia would need to seize another 8,000 square kilometers if it is to take all the Donetsk region, which would take a year even at its current increased rate of advancement. About 700 square kilometers of Ukraine has been taken since November, an area the size of metropolitan Bangkok, but the price Russia is paying in troop and equipment losses is very high. This gain is likely to be possible for only another four weeks before the offensive culminates, Russians also get exhausted any army would.

[mapuc]

I wish I had more of your optimisme Dargo and lesser pessimisme



Edit

End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

Before 2014, the Donbass region (=Donezk) was the most important (rank 1) industrial region amongst the over two dozen oblasts (provinces) in Ukraine, together with Luhansk oblast (ranked No. 5 in that list) contributing around one quarter to the total industrial and productive weight of Ukraine. Four of the top five oblasts in that list represent now occupied oblasts. Means: Ukraine looses its 4 most importan productive and industrial, heavyweight oblasts with a total of almost 40% of its industrial productivity.

In agricultural production Donbass ranked place 10 amongst these 27 oblasts. According to US agricultural surveys from 2020, the five occupied oblasts in total represent quite precisely one quarter of the national wheat production of Ukraine (Donbass alone 5%).

Donbass was before the war the oblast with the biggest group of the total national population (almost 2 million).


The five occupied oblasts also represent almost the total of Ukraine's coastal access to the sea.

------

I leave it to history unfolding to teach you a lesson about what difference it will make once Pokrovsk has been breached. The city is a bastion of the third and last defence line, the first two already have gone, and behind the city the Russians currently meet just empty land. THERE ARE NO MORE PREPARED DEFENCES behind Pokrovsk, they say. For ~ 150km. If you think that means nothing and means no difference and if you still think the Russian are bogged down while indeed they have a run and accelerating their advance since many weeks now, then I cannot help you. We see history in the making - and it will lecture you. Nothing gets won by glossing over unwanted realities.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I wish I had more of your optimisme Dargo and lesser pessimisme
Markus

Pessimism never won any battle. The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true. We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars, no pessimist ever discovered the secrets of the stars. Always look on the bright side of life. It makes it easier. Pessimists are usually right and optimists are usually wrong, but all the great changes have been accomplished by optimists.

Originally Posted by Winston Churchill

I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else.

[QUOTE=Skybird;2934631]Before 2014, the Donbass region (=Donezk) was the most important (rank 1) industrial region amongst the over two dozen oblasts (provinces) in Ukraine, together with Luhansk oblast (ranked No. 5 in that list) contributing around one quarter to the total industrial and productive weight of Ukraine. Four of the top five oblasts in that list represent now occupied obla

[Jimbuna]