Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Dan D]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Try asking Russia if they would like to join the EU and NATO for that matter, then you'll have a better idea of the opposing opinions on each side.

Chalk and cheese for centuries....different ideals and aspirations.

If we would ask Russia about joining the EU and NATO, the present answer would be "no", obviously.

There is the Eastern expansion of the NATO as a military power and the Eastern expansion of the EU as a civilian power.

Nato expansion into former Soviet territory and Soviet sphere of influence:
Ukraine and Georgia asked to join the NATO defense alliance. Try asking Russia what they think of that. As Skybird has pointed out several times, the NATO expansion to the East troubles Russia, they „feel betrayed“ by the West, to them it raises security concerns.

They have a point there. In the 2 (Germanies) plus 4 (France, Soviet Union, UK, USA) treaty for the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany to put WW II to a fomal end („peace treaty“), the Soviet Union made it a condition for them to sign the treaty that the NATO won't expand further East than Eastern Germany.

Poland was the first country to leave the Warsaw Pact and to join the NATO short after. That is a violation of the 2 plus 4 treaty from the Russian point of view, even though Poland could rightfully say, that treaty is not binding for us, we are no contractional partner of that treaty.

The Ukraine is former Soviet territory. That leaves the question, is the 2 plus 4 treaty binding to them, as it was signed by the Soviet Union and the Ukraine was part of it.

Of course, this is first of all about military power policy and that means you simply create facts. But it is still important whether Putin is „right“ from a legal aspect on the level of international diplomacy.

The EU expansion into former Soviet territory:

Russia does not like that either. Imo, what Putin fears is what happened in the Ukraine could happen at home, Even though the EU as a civilian power „is weak in responding fast to crises with military implications it is strong in terms of influencing third countries' policies by awarding economical and political support“ http://www.historyproject.dvvinternational.org/materials/The_EU_as_a_civilian_power.ppt

Putin now uses the traditional pattern of power policy: Military power to stop both the EU and NATO from expanding into former Soviet territory.

So very likely the Ukraine won't be joining NATO and the world largest trade bloc, the EU, in the near future.

I don't think though, that the EU will change its policy with regard to expanding to the East.

[Oberon]

'Armed people' have stormed one of the military bases in Sevastopol, they control only a portion of the facility which is said to be quite large.
Reports indicate that 15 trucks 'from the Black Sea Fleet' made landfall and proceeded to the base.
Obviously whether they are Russian forces or 'pro-Crimea militia' depends on who you talk to, however it would seem that groundwork is being laid to remove all traces of the Ukrainian military from Crimea ahead of the 'referendum' next week.

Updates, as always, on this excellent reddit feed:
http://www.reddit.com/live/3rgnbke2r...ciytwcxadi?t=t

[Jimbuna]

Well Putin said today he didn't want a return to the cold war days but I can see that happening if the Crimea ends up in Russian hands.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Well Putin said today he didn't want a return to the cold war days but I can see that happening if the Crimea ends up in Russian hands.

The word on the ground seems to be that this was going to be a well executed and fairly bloodless Russian assault, the Russians were discussing terms of surrender with the Ukrainians when the Crimean militia got involved and starting beating everyone nearby up, screwing up the Russians plans, so we're back to a stand-off.

Hopefully someone in the GRU or whatever it's called now will have a little chat with the Crimean militia leadership and smack them back into line.

EDIT: It seems the Russians have given up and RTB'd. There's also reports of Serbs mixing with the 'ethnic Russians' manning checkpoints in the Crimea.

[Oberon]

The USS Truxtun, an Arleigh Burke class, is the US vessel which has entered the Black Sea, apparently for 'regular' scheduled exercises with Romania and Bulgaria.

[Ducimus]

I'm going to assume this is the official Ukraine thread.

I just got done reading this, thought it a decent write up, and figured i'd pass it along to anyone whos interested.

(Vice.com) Why Putin Will Get Everything He Wants in Crimea

Middle paragraph I thought was telling:

When it comes down to it, the few diplomatic carrots that the West is willing offer or withhold from Russia have only as much value as Putin is willing to assign them. His ability to not give a **** exceeds the West's capacity to do anything he gives a **** about. The fact is that Russia cares a lot more about Crimea than anybody else does — except for Ukraine.

Last paragraph of said article:

The reality is that Crimea is all but a done deal. Putin saw something he wanted and an opportunity to take it. So he sent in troops and set about establishing that new reality on the ground. The bulk of negotiations in the coming days and weeks will involve Western officials trying to prove that Russia hasn’t gotten the better of them — the “compromise” reached will be almost exactly what Putin wanted all along, in the guise of a diplomatic victory preventing an armed conflict — so they can try to preserve Western credibility. They know they'll need it for the next crisis that comes along.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Oberon

The USS Truxtun, an Arleigh Burke class, is the US vessel which has entered the Black Sea, apparently for 'regular' scheduled exercises with Romania and Bulgaria.

When the news about this American warship came. It was breaking news in Denmark. "The crisis has escalated. America is sending a warship to the Black sea"

Hey they are sending ONE warship, do you really.....Hey maybe the American have the same attitude as the Swedes has(you know, if the Russian send their baltic fleet, the Swedes send 1 FFG to stop them.)

And here we have the reason to why they send this warship to the Black sea. Exercise

Markus

[BossMark]

[Jimbuna]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26492053

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has warned the US not to take "hasty and reckless steps" in response to the crisis in Ukraine's Crimea region.

In a phone call with his US counterpart John Kerry, Mr Lavrov said imposing sanctions on Moscow would harm the US.

Russia's parliament has promised to support Crimea if it chooses to become part of Russia.

Mr Lavrov said imposing sanctions on Russia in response to its involvement in Ukraine "will inevitably have a boomerang effect against the US itself".

Putins spokesman, Dmitry Peskov said...

Calls for talks between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the West "make us smile", he said.

I guess this mess will eventually be left to the UN to sort out....veto upon veto ad nauseam.

[Skybird]

"Calls for talks between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the West "make us smile", he said."

That will backfire badly against those Russians. They obviously do not know how strong and how tough, how terribly important and how fearsome Europe is. Let them have a taste of their own medicine, then! Let's seize the Murmansk peninsula!

Thank God we are so awesomely clever! Yesterday I read a German article comparing the crisis now with the plot in Tom Clancy's last book, "Command Authority" (which i do not know myself). Seems some politicians in the West should have read it, since it has somewhat forseen this Crimea thing.

[Joloc]

Anti-semitic attacks have been on the rise in Crimea in recent days.
http://www.haaretz.com/jewish-world/...-news/1.577356

Tatar houses have been marked by 'X'es, just like right before the 50s genocide.
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...an-tatars.html

Ukrainian-owned properties robbed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26492053

Menawhile Russia is carrying on decieving the Crimean population, stirring ethnic hatred.
http://imgur.com/gallery/Cb2x6Yx

[Oberon]

Two rallies planned in Kharkov tomorrow, pro and anti, both at the same time and only about 500 meters seperating them.

Not going to be a pretty day...

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Two rallies planned in Kharkov tomorrow, pro and anti, both at the same time and only about 500 meters seperating them.

Not going to be a pretty day...

While the referendum will be a tricky day. Pro-Ukraine activists say the referendum text has two options only: to become part of Russia, or to become independent and neutral. No option to stay with the Ukraine. How they know that, remains their secret, but I would not be surprised if the forms indeed are offering these two choices only. Before you call foul, its a trick used in Western politics as well, btw, although they do not always get away with it.

Even Western diplomats seem to have realised now that the ball is over and the Russians will not allow Ukrainian bands to play again, no matter what. Several thousand European companies have made serious in vestments in Russia who all are at risk and are a tool for the Russians to retaliate against Europe. 30% of gas intio Europe is delivered by Russia. Russia is the third biggest holder of American dollars and bonds. When they start selling US bonds on a large scale...

What we will hear from Western politicians in the next days - is already the epilogue. The Russians have what they wanted, and they will get away with it, except if the Ukraine drops into a really suicidal mood and starts the firing. Then it will get a really bloody nose.

The Russians have started to mine and booby-trap land passages between Ukraine and Crimea.

[Oberon]

Oh aye, it's all over bar the shouting now really, Crimea will go to Russia one way or the other, and what happens to East Ukraine depends on what transpires in the coming weeks.
The aftermath is going to cause a lot of navel gazing for the west, amidst a rude awakening for those who were hoping that the cold war mentality was either dead or could be kept sleeping, but nope that cat is out of the bag and I expect our military forces in Europe to be readjusted over the coming years to reflect this, just as we'd gotten the whole setup accustomed to fighting a desert war, we need to switch it all back for the possibility of a European one.
Talk about irony.

[mapuc]

In about one to two months, a diplomatic solution have been made that all parties can agree on and we will look back and say we had a moderate to severe crisis.

Or ...

The crisis has become so immersed that we sit and really anxious about tomorrow and wonder if it exists

Markus