Wuhan virus 2020

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

In todays episode of Science in our talk radio they were discussing blood type. There are many I can tell you.

The host of this program asked the guest, who is a Chief Physician and who work at some institute where they examine blood and other thing related to blood, sickness and so on.

The host said:
Now that we know my blood type (she had blood type 0 Rhesus negative) Does this mean I have 13 % lesser chance to get infected with Corona.

Here is what he said:

Not exactly.

Let me give you an example.

You take a walk down the main street in aarhus and on you way you meat 4 people, each of them are infected and contagious.
The first has blood type A-The virus in this person's blood is developed to fit people with this blood type-which mean you are somehow protected, but not entirely.
The same goes with the other two.
The last person you meet has the same blood type as you 0 Rhesus negative- The chance that you get infected is high.

Hopefully I have got most of it, I'm trying to remember what he said about blood type 0 and other blood types and the chance to get infected

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The first effective coronavirus vaccine can prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19, a preliminary analysis shows.

The developers - Pfizer and BioNTech - described it as a "great day for science and humanity".

Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised.

The companies plan to apply for emergency approval to use the vaccine by the end of the month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

A German developer and an American market giant still can cooperate after this turbulent years. Good news. BionTech is interesting, founded by a German couple with Turkish roots who not only are the CEOs, but also lead the development work in the lab.

Nevertheless nobody should expect that now soon it all will be over. I am living by the expectation that we will live around another year with restrictions and masks. Distribution, organisation and vaccination time tables simply take the time that it takes.

Also, due to the immense steam in the kettle, I am suspicous of it, its one of these new "genetic shots" (of which there are several variants in trial). If you really want to be certain on its longterm consequences, you need to calculate in years. It is logically and practically impossible for them to know it all already now, it just cannot have been done in thes emon ths. Time is time. My recommendation: if you have no real good reason, do not be fast to become one of the first getting the shot. Evaluate your risk level, and then decide. But do not rule it out forever.

At some point I will go and get a vaccination. But not immediately or in the next months. Could very well be until late in the second half of next year, I am not in a hurry. Thats due to my living conditions, however, since I lack opportunities to catch up the ifnection. Probability is more in my favour than for others.

Many things are still unclear, btw. It still is not known about this new vaccine whether the vaccinated person, while not gettign ill himself, still could carry on the infection and infect others, for example (German TV this evening). We also cannot be sure on how long the protection lasts. If it lasts only 4 months, then - well...


So much steam in the kettle. So much gold to win. Don't stop thinking now!

[Skybird]

An anecdote, BionTech's HQ sits in Mainz in a street named "An der Goldgrube" - that means "At the gold mine".

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

So the Scots provide shielding households a 4-months reserve of Vitamine D, eh?

In Germany they want to prohibit the availability and selling of such supplements. At best not just in Germany, but in t he wole EU. An according bill hasjust been brought into parliament by - the Greens, who else.

Nur mit Kresse sollst du darben,
nicht an Nährstoffen dich laben,
zieh Grünes dir im eignen Brunnen,
auf daß dein Mangel sei gelungen.
Gönnst kleine Profite den Herstellern nicht -
umso größere für Big Pharma benennst du als Pflicht!
Dann kaufen alle die teureren Drogen
und sind doch um ihre Gesundheit betrogen!

I always knew I have a poet's soul in me.

[Jimbuna]

UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock says he is optimistic life will return to normal by spring after promising vaccine results.

Welsh Government cancels GCSE, AS and A-level exams next summer 2021, with grades to be based on classroom assessments.

Record redundancies recorded in the UK in the three months to September
The second wave has pushed UK death rates over the five-year average, the Office for National Statistics says.

But in Brazil, a clinical trial for a Chinese Covid-19 vaccine is suspended after a "severe adverse" incident.

Globally there are now nearly 51 million confirmed cases and more than 1.2 million deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.

[Jimbuna]

[Platapus]

Of those three, only the second makes any sense.


1 and 3 are based on correlation with no causality determined.

[Jimbuna]

I'm sorry but it makes perfect sense to me.

1 Deaths within 28 days of a positive test result.

3 Deaths over and above the usual number at this time of year.

[Skybird]

Formally, none of the three counting methods causally proves a death being caused by Covid 19.

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'm sorry but it makes perfect sense to me.

1 Deaths within 28 days of a positive test result.

Does not prove that death is caused by Corona. Could be cancer as well. Stroke. Car accident.

3 Deaths over and above the usual number at this time of year.

Same as above. You need to prove that the raise is due to corona and not other factors, you have to exclude all other explanations. Everybody knowing statistics knows this: you shall not mistake correlation and coincidence with causality. Its one of the first things you learn is statistics basics course.

But thats a formality. Lets not split hairs. Pragmatically, 2 makes the most sense when the death certificates explcitly says that the death was caused by Covid-19. If it says that death coincides with Corona-19, it essentially describes just a correlation, a coincidence again, no causality.

1 and 3 imo are not authoritative.

[August]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I'm sorry but it makes perfect sense to me.

1 Deaths within 28 days of a positive test result.

3 Deaths over and above the usual number at this time of year.

Yes but neither show any actual connection to the disease. Number three could be just as easily caused by an increase in traffic accidents or any number of non covid related reasons. Same problem with number one.

[Jimbuna]

I wasn't under the impression the table was assigning ALL deaths to Covid but rather only a potential connection.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

The UK "will not use anything" until experts make judgement on vaccine safety, top advisers pledge.

Science 'just at the beginning of our journey' on vaccines, says England's deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam.

The EU confirms it will buy 300 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine once it is "proven to be safe and effective"

University students in England will be asked to return home for Christmas in the week after the lockdown ends.

As many students as possible will be offered rapid result Covid tests, and teaching should move online by 9 December.

The US is seeing a record number of Covid patients in hospital - nearly 62,000 - as a surge shows no signs of slowing.