Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Pentagon to send Ukraine 500 interceptor missiles for Patriot and NASAMS

The Pentagon will send Ukraine more than 500 interceptor missiles for the Patriot and NASAMS missile defense systems, which are expected to arrive in the coming weeks, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing a senior White House official. This decision was made in response to the intensification of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine and as part of an effort to equip Kyiv as much as possible before President Joe Biden's term ends in January, the report says. Additional weapons are also expected to strengthen Ukraine’s position in potential negotiations with Russia, according to U.S. officials. According to one U.S. official, these deliveries are intended to meet Ukraine’s air defense needs until the end of 2024.

Another official noted that the transfer of weapons to Ukraine typically takes weeks or even months, and the impact of the increased shipments on U.S. military stockpiles “raises significant concerns.” Therefore, the U.S. is considering options like purchasing weapons from other countries to send to Ukraine, WSJ reports... https://english.nv.ua/nation/pentago...-50465166.html

[Catfish]

They need more than defense weapons


Russia Heading Towards Operational Victory in South Donetsk Front

[Dargo]

Over the past month, the Russia lost more than 1,350 (killed and wounded) per day on average, the head of the British Ministry of Defense shared. The total losses of Russia in Ukraine during October became a record Russia lost almost 42 thousand. That so called breakthrough in Donbas is a controlled retreat part of Ukraine deep defense. If you zoom out you see that victory is not big small pockets. Over the past day, the Russian army lost 1,660 troops at the front. Ukrainian Defense Forces also destroyed 5 tanks and 23 artillery systems. Drawing arrows on a map does not make it a pincer movement in the real.

[Skybird]

2022: "They cannot sustain these losses".
2023: "They cannot sustain these losses".
2024: "They cannot sustain these losses".


Russia, Novembre 2024: "Yes we can.(tm)"

[ET2SN]

"Every day Russian forces fight in Ukraine, NATO gets stronger."

This is just basic attrition, AKA Death by a thousand cuts.

[Dargo]

Russia lost in 2024 two times more troops than between 2022-2023, Russian army is not growing but is in decline without a general mobilization. City of Moscow hikes pay for contract soldiers to $60,000 a year. With this increase, the annual income for Moscow's contract soldiers will be more than five times the country's average nominal wage, based on data from early 2024. It is estimated that Russia has lost 87% of the active-duty ground troops it had prior to launching its invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of its pre-invasion tanks, according to a declassified US intelligence assessment provided to Congress in December last year. Ukraine believes that Russia continues to covertly recruit around 30,000 soldiers monthly, not allowing the Russian military to balance out its losses on the moment. If you lose almost 42,000 per month you can not build up your forces for the next offensive.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Over week, enemy losses amounted to 9800 occupiers and 1447 pieces of weapons and military equipment

From November 3 to 10, 2024, the Defense Forces eliminated more than 10 thousand occupants and destroyed more than 1400 pieces of enemy equipment.

According to Censor.NET, this was reported by the Commander of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk.

He emphasized that the enemy's losses for the week are as follows:

9800 occupiers;
1447 pieces of weapons and military equipment.
In particular, during the week, the Defense Forces destroyed:

67 tanks;
203 armored combat vehicles;
194 artillery systems;
1 MLRS;
2 air defense systems;
523 units of motor vehicles;
20 units of special equipment.
In addition, our defenders destroyed 5 enemy missiles and 432 UAVs. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3519248

[Skybird]

They will hold out those months more that are needed until Trump is in charge and lets Ukraine fall. Even Trump has nothing that could force Putin wanting to "negotiate". So not only has Trump already given up Crimea (I have already 2014 and said the Russian would NEVER give that up again...), but he will need to allow Russia taking the four occupied oblasts as well. Else he must not even care for starting to talk to Putin.


Ukraine loses, Russia gains its objectives: Crimea, four oblasts, the core of Ukrainian industrial centre, huge ressource fields, major parts of its agriculture (competing against the world-influencing wheat exports from Russia).



And if the West does not do anyway, for whatever the reasons are, what would be needed to make Ukraine winning and reconquering the stolen grounds, continuing the war indeed is pointless, it costs Ukraine more than Russia. Its Ukraine that gets destroyed piece by piece, not Russia.



The West as a security guarantor and defence assistant has paid a high price, too. With loss of prestige and "nimbus" of being militarily irresistable.



In the long run, Russia will pay in demographic and social terms. The economic fallout it will get over, somehow. It seems it always does.



Second half of or late 2025 will be the time when Ukraine very likely cannot carry on with fighting. The lost territory will be gone, forever.



Question is what comes from Russia int he years after, speaking of all Europe. Moldavia. Kaliningrad. Poland. Baltic. Georgia.


As my grandparents still used to say: "Die Gefahr kommt aus dem Osten."


A huge influx of more Ukrainian refugees into Europe is to be expected, say the media. They could be right.

[Jimbuna]

Russians have everything ready for massive shelling of Ukraine, missiles are stockpiled, aviation has practiced launch tactics - CCD

Currently, Russian troops have accumulated a sufficient number of missiles for another massive shelling of Ukrainian territory.

Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation of the National Defense and Security Council of Ukraine, said this on Telegram channel, Censor.NET reports.

"As I said, the Russians are ready for massive shelling. There are enough missiles, they have been accumulated at strategic aviation airfields and are still being accumulated. The aircraft are also ready," he said.

According to Kovalenko, the Russians are practicing tactics of simulated launches as part of keeping their aviation ready for action.

"And the enemy uses this for psychological pressure," he said.

As a reminder, on the morning of November 11, Tu-95 and MiG-31K bombers were spotted taking off in Russia. An air raid alert was announced throughout Ukraine, but later it turned out that enemy aircraft were imitating missile launches. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3519382

[Skybird]

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Military expert Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) assesses the situation in Ukraine for FOCUS online. "I am not surprised if Putin responds to Trump's call and warning of escalation with an escalation to show: 'You have no right to order me to do anything here.'" If Trump does not draw any conclusions from this, he will immediately lose face with Putin.

Gressel says he can only shake his head at the negotiation and mediation plans that Trump - and Chancellor Scholz - claim to be pursuing. One only has to ask the logical question: "Why should Putin, who has already invested so much in this war, give up just because the West no longer wants to?"

[Catfish]

^ why black text ?
Putin cannot lose face, neither can Trump.
But a russian escalation 72 hours after telephone call with Trump is probably not a good sign.

[Otto Harkaman]

^ Trump call ?

There were recent reports that Donald Trump, following his 2024 election victory, had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the Kremlin has firmly denied that any such call took place. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov labeled these reports as "completely false" and clarified that there were no current plans for a call between Trump and Putin. While Trump has previously indicated he would seek a swift resolution to the Ukraine conflict if re-elected, this reported call appears to be unverified, with both Russian and Ukrainian officials refuting the claims of its occurrence.

[Catfish]

^ Focus is not known for false information or drastic exaggeration, but maybe they ARE wrong – ?
I would not believe anything what the Kreml says in this situation though, also Trump will not say anything. Those are things going on behind closed doors.

[Jimbuna]