Nuclear Iran

[Reece]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

UN nuclear watchdog chief says Iran has accepted request to stop increasing near weapons grade uranium stock

Gee, why don't I believe them!!

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Reece

Gee, why don't I believe them!!

Precisely

Iran orders new advanced nuclear centrifuges to be brought on stream after IAEA censure

Nov. 22 (UPI) -- Iran said Friday it had begun commissioning new advanced uranium-enrichment centrifuges after it was censured by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The Atomic Energy Agency of Iran said in a statement reported by the state-run IRNA news agency that the resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency was "politically motivated, unrealistic and counterproductive."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...d=BingNewsSerp

[Skybird]

Vertrauen ist gut - Kontrolle ist besser. - German proverb.

[Jimbuna]

Precisely

[Jimbuna]

Norwegian guard at US Embassy in Oslo arrested over allegations of spying for Russia and Iran

A Norwegian man working as a security guard for the US Embassy in Oslo was arrested this week on allegations of spying for Russia and Iran.

According to Norway’s public broadcaster NRK, the man is in his 20s and was arrested at home in his garage on Wednesday. He is charged with attempted aggravated intelligence activities against state secrets and admitted to having collected and shared information with Russian and Iranian authorities, according to NRK.

The arrest comes amid ongoing concerns about Moscow and Tehran’s espionage and influence operations around the globe. Western officials have disrupted plots from Tehran to harm or kill individuals, including an alleged assassination plot against President-elect Donald Trump.

Also in November, the Wall Street Journal reported that incendiary devices which had ignited in Germany and the United Kingdom in July were part of a covert Russian operation aiming to start fires aboard cargo and passenger flights heading to the US and Canada.

The man accused of espionage in Norway “is charged with having obtained information that may be detrimental to the security situation for third countries, and the question is whether the information he has is of such a nature,” his lawyer John Christian Elden said, adding that his client had not acknowledged that he is a spy. Elden said his client does not plead guilty but consents to two weeks’ imprisonment, NRK reported.

Norway’s intelligence and security service PST confirmed to CNN Friday that it had arrested the individual “for intelligence activities against state secrets and illegal intelligence against other states.” A spokesperson for PST also confirmed that “the person was employed as a security guard at the American embassy in Oslo.” They declined to offer further information, citing the early stages of the investigation.

A US State Department spokesperson told CNN that they “do not comment on allegations related to intelligence or personnel matters, but as always appreciate our close coordination and cooperation with the Norwegian police on a range of critical issues.”

“We refer you to Norwegian authorities for further information,” the spokesperson said.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/22/p...ran/index.html

[Jimbuna]

Iran, Europeans test diplomacy with Trump term looming

GENEVA (Reuters) -European and Iranian officials made little progress in meetings on Friday on whether they could engage in serious talks, including over Iran's disputed nuclear programme, before Donald Trump returns to the White House in January, diplomats said.

The meetings in Geneva, the first since this month's U.S. election, come after Tehran was angered by a European-backed resolution last week that criticised Iran for poor cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

"Another round of candid discussions with PDS (political directors) of France, Germany and United Kingdom," Iran's former ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said on X. "It was agreed to continue diplomatic dialogue in near future."

A European official said there had been nothing of note in the meeting but that Tehran had shown an eagerness to explore how diplomacy could work in next few weeks.

Trump, who after pulling the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers pursued a "maximum pressure" policy that sought to wreck Iran's economy, is staffing his new administration with noted hawks on Iran.

Iran's deputy foreign minister and senior nuclear negotiator Majid Takhtravanchi met the EU's coordinator Enrique Mora on Thursday evening before holding various talks on Friday with the European diplomats, known as the E3.

While Trump's return to power leaves many questions open, four European diplomats said the E3 countries - the European parties to the 2015 accord - felt it was vital to engage now because time was running out.

The level of distrust between both sides was highlighted when the E3 on Nov. 21 pushed ahead with a resolution by the IAEA board of governors which criticised Iran.

They dismissed as insufficient and insincere a last-minute Iranian move to cap its stock of uranium that is close to weapons grade.

Tehran reacted to the resolution by informing the IAEA that it plans to install more uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants.

In rare public comments, the head of France's foreign intelligence service Nicolas Lerner said on Friday there was a real the risk of Iranian nuclear proliferation in the coming months.

"Our services are working side by side to face what is undoubtedly one of the most, if not the most, critical threat of the coming months ... possible atomic proliferation in Iran," Lerner said, speaking in Paris alongside his British counterpart, adding the two agencies were defining their strategy.

A European official had earlier said the primary aim in Geneva was to try to agree a calendar timeline and framework to embark on good faith talks so that there was a clear commitment from Iranians to begin negotiating something concrete before Trump arrives.

It was unclear immediately if there had been any such progress.

"If we finalise a roadmap with France, Britain and Germany on how to resolve the nuclear dispute, then the ball will be in the U.S. court to revive or kill the 2015 nuclear deal," the senior Iranian official said.

The E3 have adopted a tougher stance on Iran in recent months, notably since Tehran ramped up its military support to Russia. However, they have always insisted that they wanted to maintain a policy of pressure and dialogue.

Iranian officials say their primary objective will be finding ways to secure lifting of sanctions.

WAR FEARS

The 2015 deal lifted international sanctions against Iran in return for Tehran accepting some curbs to its nuclear programme. Since Trump left the deal, Iran has accelerated its nuclear programme while limiting the IAEA's ability to monitor it.

"There isn't going to be an agreement until Trump takes office or any serious talks about the contours of a deal," said Kelsey Davenport, director of non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association advocacy group.

The talks, which also discussed the Middle East situation and Iran's military cooperation with Russia, took place amid fears that an all-out war could break out between Iran and arch-rival Israel despite a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Iran's Hezbollah allies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday he wanted to turn Israel's focus to Iran.

The European powers hope Iran will decide to begin negotiating new restrictions on its nuclear activities with a view to having a deal by the summer.

That would give enough time to implement new limits on Iran's programme and lift sanctions before the accord ends in October 2025. It is not clear whether Trump would back negotiations.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...d54d28c1&ei=84

[Jimbuna]

Iran may accelerate nuclear weapons program in coming months – French intelligence

In the coming months, there are risks of Iran's proliferation of nuclear weapons. The UK and France are already working on strategies for possible developments, stated the head of France’s foreign intelligence service, Nicolas Lerner, according to Reuters.

"Our services are working side by side to face what is undoubtedly one of the threats, if not to say the most critical threat, in the coming months - the possible atomic proliferation in Iran," said Lerner.

According to him, intelligence on the situation with Iran's nuclear weapons will be decisive. After that, the authorities of a number of countries will be able to make the right decisions and determine the right strategies.

Earlier, we reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a resolution demanding that Iran urgently improve its cooperation with the agency and provide a comprehensive report. This document is reportedly aimed at pushing Tehran toward new nuclear negotiations.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...f035435f&ei=25

[Jimbuna]

Iran to begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges, UN watchdog says

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran will begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges at its two main nuclear facilities at Fordo and Natanz, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog said Friday, further raising tensions over Tehran’s program as it enriches at near weapons-grade levels.

The notice from the International Atomic Energy Agency only mentioned Iran enriching uranium with new centrifuges to 5% purity, far lower than the 60% it currently does — likely signaling that it still wants to negotiate with the West and the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

However, it remains unclear how Trump will approach Iran once he enters office, particularly as it continues to threaten to attack Israel amid its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip and just after a ceasefire started in its campaign in Lebanon. Trump withdrew America from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2018, setting in motion a series of attacks and incidents across the wider Mideast.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment over the IAEA’s report. Tehran had threatened to rapidly advance its program after the Board of Governors at the IAEA condemned Iran at a meeting in November for failing to cooperate fully with the agency.

In a statement, the IAEA outlined the plans Iran informed it of, which include feeding uranium into some 45 cascades of its advanced IR-2M, IR-4 and IR-6 centrifuges.


Cascades are a group of centrifuges that spin uranium gas together to more quickly enrich the uranium. Each of these advanced classes of centrifuges enrich uranium faster than Iran’s baseline IR-1 centrifuges, which have been the workhorse of the country’s atomic program. The IAEA did not elaborate on how many machines would be in each cascade but Iran has put around 160 centrifuges into a single cascade in the past.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-nucl...6c5d672ec382a1

[Jimbuna]

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi gets 3-week reprieve from prison in Iran after surgery

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi was released temporarily from prison Wednesday after undergoing a complex surgery in Iran that saw part of a bone in her right leg removed over cancer fears, her supporters said.

A campaign on Mohammadi’s behalf said she would be free for 21 days, but would have to serve the remaining prison time later. The Iranian government did not immediately acknowledge the medical furlough for Mohammadi, 52, which her supporters demanded should involve her being permanently freed.

“A 21-day suspension of Narges Mohammadi’s sentence is inadequate,” the campaign said. “After over a decade of imprisonment, Narges requires specialized medical care in a safe, sanitary environment — a basic human right. As doctors have emphasized, a minimum of three months’ recovery is crucial for her healing.”

It added: “Narges should never have been imprisoned in the first place for her peaceful advocacy for human and women’s rights — the very work that earned her the Nobel Peace Prize.”

Mohammadi is serving prison sentences totaling 13 years and nine months on charges of collusion against state security and propaganda against Iran’s government. She has kept up her activism despite numerous arrests by Iranian authorities and spending years behind bars. That includes backing the nationwide, women-led protests sparked by the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini.

Mohammadi suffered multiple heart attacks while imprisoned before undergoing emergency surgery in 2022, her supporters say. In November of this year, her lawyer announced that doctors found a bone lesion that they feared could be cancerous, leading to her surgery.

“We are hugely relieved by Narges Mohammadi’s temporary release today from Evin prison, which is an important step in the right direction,” said Rebecca Vincent of Reporters Sans Frontières. “We remain deeply concerned by her worrying health situation and urge the Iranian authorities to grant her sufficient time at home to allow for her full recovery.”

Iran’s economy has been in tatters for years because of sanctions imposed by the West. Its people are angry over the devaluation of their currency and government corruption. That’s fueled protests, as well as a government crackdown on dissent.

The return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House in January has stoked concerns for some that he may resume his “maximum pressure” campaign on the Islamic Republic.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-prot...e064641246afd2

[Jimbuna]

Iran launches heavy satellite into high orbit with new module

Iran has sent its heaviest-ever cargo into space using a Simorgh rocket, including an advanced module to put satellites into higher orbits, Reuters reports.

The state television broadcast said that the Samān-1 transition module, along with a CubeSat and a research payload, “were successfully placed in an elliptical orbit with a high point of 410 km (255 miles) and a low point of 300 km.”

The launch took place amid claims by the United States and European countries that Iran was transferring ballistic missiles to Russia, which would likely be used in a war with Ukraine within weeks.

According to the Iranian media, the two-stage liquid-fueled Simorgh launch vehicle was created by the Iranian Ministry of Defense and the Armed Forces Logistics Service.

“During its eighth launch, it achieved a new milestone by successfully delivering the Samān-1 Orbital Transfer Block and two other research payloads with a combined weight of approximately 300 kg (660 pounds), setting a new national record for the heaviest payload launched into orbit,” they added.

In January, Iran announced that it had launched three satellites simultaneously for the first time using a Simorgh rocket.

Iranian media reported at the time that one satellite weighing 32 kg and two nanosatellites weighing less than 10 kg each were sent into a minimum orbit of 450 km (280 miles), with the two smaller devices aimed at testing narrowband communication and geo-positioning technologies.

In September, Iran launched the Chamran-1 research satellite into a 550 km orbit using a Qaem-100 launch vehicle.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/tech...9e463079&ei=70

[Skybird]

Surprise surprise! Who could have known that in advance?

[Frankfurter Rundschau] Iran likely to massively increase uranium enrichment - nuclear bomb quality almost achieved
Iran is intensifying its uranium enrichment: warnings of a possible nuclear bomb, the German Foreign Office reacts with alarm.

Tehran - According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran is stepping up preparations for the possible production of a nuclear bomb. The Islamic Republic is said to have massively increased its production of 60 percent enriched uranium. These ambitions are causing concern in Israel in particular.
“Iran already has enough material to produce four nuclear bombs,” said IAEA chief Rafael Grossi in an interview with Reuters published on Friday (December 6). However, Tehran continues to deny that it is pursuing a military nuclear program and stresses that its nuclear technology is exclusively for civilian purposes.
Grossi estimated that Iran could produce “seven, eight or even more times” the current monthly amount of five to seven kilograms of 60 percent uranium in the future. There is currently no known reason to enrich uranium to 60 percent for civilian purposes. In the past, states have mainly used uranium enriched to 60 percent to prepare for the production of nuclear bombs.

Uranium with a purity of 60 percent is technically close to the 90 percent required for the construction of nuclear bombs. This increases the concentration of the fissile isotope uranium-235, which is essential for chain reactions in nuclear weapons.

Politicians in Germany were also alarmed. The Federal Foreign Office condemned the development as a “serious Iranian escalation step”. The ministry emphasized: “It is obvious that such measures considerably worsen the framework for diplomatic efforts.”

The IAEA Board of Governors had already accused Iran of a lack of willingness to cooperate in November, at the initiative of the UK, Germany and France. Tensions could escalate further with the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, whose administration is considered to be particularly critical of Iran.

[Jimbuna]

Iran evacuating troops from Syria amid rebel offensive

Iran has begun evacuating its military command and personnel from Syria. This move by one of Damascus' key allies, Tehran, could signal an inability to assist President Bashar al-Assad in maintaining power amid a rebel offensive, reports The New York Times.

Regional officials and three Iranian officials told the American media that Iranian military personnel and staff members had started to be evacuated from Syria.

It is reported that senior commanders from the Quds Force, one of the five external branches of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have already been evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon.

Iranian officials and regional authorities also revealed to journalists that they had evacuated members of the Revolutionary Guards, some Iranian diplomatic staff, their families, and Iranian civilians.

"Iranians began to leave Syria on Friday morning," the NYT reports, citing officials speaking anonymously to discuss a sensitive issue.

The evacuation is said to be taking place at the Iranian embassy in Damascus and at IRGC bases.

Some individuals being evacuated are being transferred by air to Tehran, while others are leaving by land to Lebanon, Iraq, and the Syrian port of Latakia.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...c404979a&ei=15

[Jimbuna]

Iran is teetering on the brink - why this could make regime more dangerous than ever

2024 must rank as one of the worst years for the Iranian regime. Israel has humbled and decapitated Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon, with key assassinations along the way, including Revolutionary Guards commanders and Hamas leaders.

The deaths of President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash earlier this year scuppered succession plans for Tehran into the bargain.

Now to top it all off, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is in exile in Moscow following the collapse of his regime. Weakened by protests at home - as well as embarrassed and degraded by Israeli attacks which destroyed the country's air defence systems - the proxy network of Iran also lies in tatters.

Only perhaps the Yemeni Houthis remain reasonably strong. Now billions of oil money has gone down the tubes, money which could have been spent at home, something likely to exacerbate domestic discontent with the regime.

Assad, for one, helped secure oil for Iranian proxies. Now with its network in near ruins across much of the Middle East what can we expect from the Iranians?

Well, firstly a word of caution: not all the proxies are in ruins. There are the aforementioned Houthis alongside Shiite militants in both Iran and Iraq.

Moreover, Iran has been able to cultivate ties with Sunni militants as well - Hamas is the best example but note links with the Taliban as well.

Tehran would surely not be averse to further cultivating such ties if these augmented its ongoing strategy of weakening Israel and her Western allies.

Iran however faces the prospect of President Donald Trump returning to office in the US. During his first term in office, Trump pulled the US out of a six-nation agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program alongside sanctions.

Although sanctions remain, there has been a lingering perception that President Joe Biden has been softer on Tehran. There is then a widespread expectation that Trump will ratchet up sanctions and turn the thumbscrews on the regime to apply maximum pressure.

This could however be a moment of maximum danger for the region. Cornered, Iran may seek not only to augment its ties with the Sunni world, but to go for broke when it comes to crushing domestic discontent and developing nuclear capabilities.

Even if the Supreme Leader - Ayatollah Khamenei - dies in the near future (and reports of his ill health continue), the regime and its ideology will outlast one man, as they did his predecessor Ayatollah Khomeini.

Israel may have weakened Iran's proxies but nor are they dead, and nor has Israel finished the job. Moreover, Iran remains ideological bedfellows on Israel with militants and groups who may have fought Tehran's proxies.

Although locked in an ongoing ideological civil war with Saudi Arabia, Iran also retains powerful friends in China and Russia (indeed Beijing brokered a deal between Iran and Saudi not so long ago). India is also on reasonable terms with Tehran.

China is a big buyer of Iranian oil, with clandestine means to increase shipments, something Beijing likely wants to secure in the event of further sanctions or conflict over Taiwan.

This then is an Iranian regime down but not out, humbled but not to be discontented, bowed but not broken. Trump could change all that but it would be reckless to dismiss the resolve and still substantial means of the Iranian regime.

2024 has been a terrible year for Iran. 2025 will be pivotal to see whether the bad times continue or whether Tehran can fight back.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...beef6154&ei=14

[Dargo]

Military officials: Israel preparing for potential strikes against Iran nuclear facilities

The Israeli Air Force is continuing its readiness and preparations for potential strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, following the weakening of Tehran’s proxy groups in the Middle East and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Israeli military officials.

The military believes that an isolated Iran may push further with its nuclear program.

Due to the dramatic changes in the Middle East, especially the fall of Assad which allowed the IAF to take out the vast majority of Syria’s air defenses, the Israeli military believes there is now an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

[mapuc]

This strike would come anyway Syrian air force or not.

Israel will not allow Iran to develop nukes.

What I wonder is, what kind of weapons are Israel going to use against these well protected targets ?

Markus