Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

If they really aim at the long haul, its only a question of time before they call general mobilization, no matter the innerpolitical implicaitons this would mean.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

If they really aim at the long haul, its only a question of time before they call general mobilization, no matter the innerpolitical implicaitons this would mean.

Why would we do that if others can die for us, we will supply them with arms but never fight in Ukraine.

[Skybird]

This German commentor in FOCUS agrees with my earlier post where I said the visit today was pathetic and practically worthless. I would even say the visit displayed pure cynism. Ladies visit a hotel spa to feel well, Scholz visits Kyiv.

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The three-plus-one allies delivered the bare minimum to the Ukrainian president on Thursday. A simple consideration makes this clear: If the four heads of state and government had not even granted Ukraine EU membership status, they might as well have demanded its capitulation to Russia.

No wonder that Putin and his people reacted so casually and mockingly to this photo opportunity, which was supposed to be so much more. But it wasn't. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky also put a good face on the game of pepita - what else could he have done but gloat like a camera?

Selenskyj is dependent on everything, but really everything, that the West supplies him with. Whereby the West means above all: the USA. If Ukraine were dependent on the help of the West alone, it would already be Russian. A simple fact about this, too: without the American defensive missiles, Ukraine would not have been able to defend Kiev at the beginning of the war, or at least not as successfully. And Russia's blitzkrieg scenario would have worked out.

Coming up next, Scholz. But first: the Italian prime minister was bordering on ridiculousness. Mario Draghi said in view of the wheat war that Russia has now started in Ukraine, the Europeans must now be as brave as Ukraine.

Gosh - what does he want to do now, the Signore Draghi: send the European Army to blow up the Russian ships blocking the delivery of Ukrainian grain for Africa and Asia and Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Black Sea off Odessa? Alas, alas: it does not exist, the European army. What once again, perhaps even in two years, if the American president should then be called Donald Trump again, could still grow into an existential European problem. What does he propose then, Mr. Draghi?

In any case, the three old Westerners plus the new Westerner Romania talked intensively with Selensky, the would-be Westerner, about this war scenario of Vladimir Putin. No wonder: Russia has good cards to enforce its view of things in Africa and Asia - that the West is responsible for the famine threatening there - and not Russia.

Romania is now to become a kind of global hub for the granary Ukraine and its deliveries to the world. That is the only unexpected result of this summit in Kiev. With its own Black Sea ports, it is to bypass Ukraine's Odessa, hitherto the wheat gateway to the world.

Thank goodness the three procrastinators, Germany, Italy and France, called in their Romanian counterpart. It was probably Emmanuel Macron who came up with this idea, he visited Klaus Johannis on Friday. It apparently dawned on at least one of the three that it would have sent a fatal signal if only the trio of procrastinators from the old West had traveled to Ukraine.

The new West, i.e. the old East with the central power Poland as its most important representative, would certainly have taken it as a diplomatic affront if an Eastern representative had not been present. Germany and France have long since ceased to be the navel of the Europeans. Here, too, the Ukraine war has led to what the German head of government likes to call a "turning point in time." The Ukraine war has made the EU more eastern.

Speaking of Olaf Scholz, he has now extended the term applied to the Bundeswehr and its plus-100-billion future to war. A small rhetorical coup. But this is by no means a "turning point": Ukraine already had associate status with the EU once. That was precisely the reason for Putin to strike out against Ukraine for the first time.

On the face of it, EU accession status is indeed a necessary condition for Ukraine's existence as a member of the European Union. But status alone is not sufficient for accession. The only decisive factor is the acquis of the European Union - the so-called acquis communautaire. In other words, everything that is now European law. A few thousand pages.

Serbia is now waiting almost 20 years for its accession. And until Ukraine becomes a member of the European club, many years will pass, who knows how many. And depending on the final outcome of this war, the matter of accession status will have already been settled.

That is, if Putin's soldiers win this dirty war. And then possibly installs an Erich Honecker in the Russian vassal state Ukraine. This brings us back to the beginning, which is to say: Without weapons, everything is nothing. Without a military success, the prospect of Ukraine's membership in the European Union is an empty promise.


And in this respect, Olaf Scholz has not brought anything with him to Ukraine, unlike the pompous promises he made before a possible trip. One only has to put the - even announced - German arms deliveries next to the list that Ukraine recently published as the minimum necessary. There are many bureaucratic and some key political reasons for German hesitation. The bottom line, however: what the Germans are supplying remains a tragedy.

Turned to domestic politics: This visit to Ukraine, long delayed on all sorts of specious grounds and now finally delayed, will take the pressure off Scholz, who has long been under pressure.

For one day, for two days, for three?

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Why would we do that if others can die for us, we will supply them with arms but never fight in Ukraine.

I meant Russia. Russia must generally mobilize if it wants to go for a long lasting war. There are innerpolitical implications that will make things more difficult for Putin, but he is a dictator with brutal means at his hands. He can deal with that.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I meant Russia. Russia must generally mobilize if it wants to go for a long lasting war. There are innerpolitical implications that will make things more difficult for Putin, but he is a dictator with brutal means at his hands. He can deal with that.

The inner political implications are too big I think else he would have done this already.

[Dargo]

A Ukrainian T-64BV tank was destroyed by an ATGM fired by the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the so-called LNR in Luhansk Oblast. So they use these 1966 tanks on the front.

[Jeff-Groves]

Um. The BV is a 2017 upgrade.
"The upgraded tanks included new thermal imaging for all crew, remove Luna infrared searchlight, include TPN-1-TPV Ukrainian night sight in place of TPN1-49-23, Nizh reactive armour modules designed for bolt-on replacement on T-64BV turrets, SN-4215 networked satellite navigation unit, and Lybid K-2RB digital radio (under license from Motorola) providing secure communications with a 70 km range."

[Skybird]

After in two steps bringing down gas supply to germany to 40% of previous quotas, Gazprom on Thursday cut deliveries to France, Austria ands Italy by one third each.
Earlier this day Germany was warned by the Russian ambassador to the EU that gas deliveries via NordStream-1 could be stopped completely.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

After in two steps bringing down gas supply to germany to 40% of previous quotas, Gazprom on Thursday cut deliveries to France, Austria ands Italy by one third each.
Earlier this day Germany was warned by the Russian ambassador to the EU that gas deliveries via NordStream-1 could be stopped completely.

Gazprom attributes the scaling back of supply to the lack of essential equipment from Siemens, which should have returned from a maintenance job in Canada. Because of sanctions, that is not possible now. According to the German government, this is an occasional argument, and Russia wants to scare European countries with this action and further push up the price of gas. Energy companies from Italy, the Czech Republic and Austria also say they are getting less gas from Russia today than agreed. They use it because of the new weapons package.

[Skybird]

Of course its a strawman argument. There are many Siemens turbines installed - and several ones stored for reserve duties like now.



The Russian Empire strike back here, that simple it is. And as I said earlier, it was to be expected. They try to drive wedges into the Europeans' front, and they try to keep Scholz afraid.

[Skybird]

The UK has bought 20 howitzers M109 in Belgium and now delivers them to Ukraine.

[August]

[Skybird]

Paywall prevents to post the full text, so this ilustration must serve as a hint on how great the discrepancy is between money support promised to the Ukraine - and how much really has been given so far.





Famous military historian van Crevefeld said that he cannot imagine the ukraine to gain the capability and manpower to successfully reconquer even just one major metropole fallen to Russia, not to mention retaking the Donbass or even the Crimea. I think he is right there. It is said the side on the offensive needs a 3:1 advantage to push the offensive, and in urban area and cities its even 5:1 and higher. But the ukrainians numerically are outnumbered.

If it was a goal of Russia to split the Ukraine, then it already has won the war.

Van creveld only thinks it possible that the ukraine over the very long haul could make occupation so unpleasant for the occupiers that in some years they have the nose full of it, and leave. But how often does it happen that once the Russians are in a place, they left again? Its difficult to get rid of them again

Bubble-Olaf gets quite some criticism after his return from Kyiv. Many people are quite aware that he has givne the ukraine nothing, and went there with empty hands. The EU candidate status is worth nothing for the next years, it plays no role for the going of the war or in affecting Russia's acting.


As a consequences of the gas shortages ot Germany and Italy, no gas from Russia reaches France at all anymore.

[Skybird]

The following analysis is by Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger, he writes for FOCUS and repeatedly I took notice of his strategic longterm perspectives and analysis, he is maybe one of the most competent illusion-free analysts in germany on the war. He has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations as well as American and German foreign policy.

His view is grim. He writes in FOCUS:

Vladimir Putin's second, final war goal is still too little noticed in this country. In the end, Russia wants to dominate not only Ukraine, but all of Europe. Anyone who dismisses this as completely absurd is taking the easy way out. Germany urgently needs a serious threat analysis that goes beyond the poetry with which the government of the last twenty years has lied to itself.

Russia's war aims extend far beyond Ukraine. It wants to dominate Europe because only then will it be able to have a say in the international order on an equal footing with the world powers, the United States and China. Russia continues to pursue this goal, even though it is currently only achieving gains in terrain in Ukraine that by no means justify the loss of so many people, so much material and so much prestige. Not to mention the social and economic opportunities for the future of Russian society that have been sacrificed on the Ukrainian battlefield.

The official view in Russia is different. In their propaganda, the "liberation" of Ukraine is indeed proceeding slowly because "civilians are being protected." But those in charge know that they are neither protecting civilians nor conquering cities, but capturing bombed-out stone deserts from which people have fled and in which they have died.
Webinar: Tips for helping children who have fled Ukraine.

Both sides in the war know what it's all about at its core: Ukraine wants to emerge from this war as a united nation. Russia wants to prevent that from happening. Not even Russian propaganda dares to claim that Ukraine has already lost the war. In Germany this "opinion" is spread.

President Putin was completely wrong in his assumptions about the course of the war. Neither did the Russian armed forces find military and political support in the neighboring country, nor did the EU and NATO states split over their direct reactions. The U.S., Putin's pathological object of hatred, has even been able to use the opportunity opened up by Russia to once again present itself as the world's number one power - and to act accordingly.

In view of this situation, the question arises with regard to Russia's war aims whether the Russian leadership continues to be mistaken if it assumes that it will ultimately be able to dominate Europe. Militarily, it cannot achieve this goal. The war in Ukraine documents this. Can it achieve it politically?

This is something to think about in order to be prepared for Russia's possible actions, which could be aimed at destabilizing European states and promoting authoritarian tendencies in states and societies. Then Russia could once again assume a role it has more often represented in history: to be the guarantor power of authoritarian European states.

One only has to think of Prussia and the Habsburg Empire. At present, this can be observed especially in Belarus, where the government has tied its security to Russia's military power and shuns, even fears, its own population. This is enough to govern authoritatively. Could this occur in other European states as well?

Before Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, Poland and Hungary were the two EU states where authoritarian tendencies could be observed most intensively. Restrictions on the judiciary and media by the executive, an illiberal ideology and strong nationalism put these two states in a special position.

They continue to occupy it, but no longer together, but each at the other end of the EU's wartime alignment. Poland has gained enormously in status. The historically deeply rooted mistrust of Russia and a clear policy of matching words with deeds have brought this about.

Hungary, on the other hand, is in a special role, viewed with skepticism, as at least a half-hearted representative of Russian positions, because the break with Russia is avoided. The EU can endure this at present, because Hungary is not a state that makes a difference in terms of relations with Russia.

Therefore, the focus is on the medium-sized European states in the West, on France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Britain can be left out of this, not because it is no longer part of the EU, but because for historical reasons it will not adopt a policy of yielding to an aggressor.

The other four states are consolidated democracies, but the Russian calculation could be aimed at changing just that. President Putin considers the liberal democracies to be less defensible, politically and culturally hollowed out and alienated from their traditions. In his world view, they are prepared to make far-reaching political compromises in return for prosperity.

Do these findings give rise to effective levers that Russia could use to promote illiberal and nationalistic developments in Western Europe in order to support authoritarian tendencies in the political systems - and thus to produce those governments whose guarantor power Russia wants to be? And is the war in Ukraine contributing to this?

Some consequences of the war have already become apparent: The distribution battles for scarce resources are becoming tougher and the loss of prosperity in Western societies more noticeable. These effects can be exploited politically.

Since a comprehensive threat analysis is beyond the scope of this article, we will only give some examples. In France, society is deeply divided politically, and national-populist, anti-Western forces are steadily gaining ground. In Italy, the memory of a government consisting of two national-populist parties is still alive. In Spain, the conflict over Catalonia is simmering. In Germany, a thinning of the political center has been lamented for years and the fragmentation of the party system may again become acute.

In all cases, economic slumps, unemployment, cultural and racial prejudices, and skillful agitation from outside can affect the political order. In any case, given the Russian leadership's assessment of the European situation, it is an obvious possibility that must be considered and for which society must prepare. For the Russian president thinks that the European democracies are not capable of defense, in which he may have been encouraged by Germany's deliberately brought about partial inability to defend itself.

Therefore, the EU states need a serious threat analysis that goes beyond the poetry with which the governments of the last twenty years have lied to themselves.

Smart politics starts with looking at reality. German society in particular must learn this again in the area of foreign and security policy. This includes the fact that war in Europe is a real possibility for which states prepare - if they are governed responsibly. If they are not prepared, it is important to ask: why?

This threat analysis must be based on a nationwide and societal perspective, and it must be used to draw conclusions about the capabilities the country wants to have at its disposal, lifted in the EU. For this reason, the threat analysis must also be a basis for equipping Germany for several futures. For no one knows for sure which dangers will threaten in the coming years - and which can be safely ruled out.

Russia, at any rate, will only be able to achieve its imperialist goals if it succeeds in promoting illiberal, authoritarian and nationalist tendencies in the states of Europe. Or if this should be possible in the USA.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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In the actual field battles, the ukriane is loosing, and Russia is slwoly, but constantly advancing. I too think that it will be decided over several years, over long periods of time, whether Russia is able to keep these trerritories, or whether Ukrainian guzerilla warfare makes life so miserbale for them that one day they pack thigns and go again. Right now, honestyl said, I have a hard time to imagine that. But then, before the war i thought Russia would fioght much more efefvtcively then it did. However, I do not share the Wetser snetiuments on that Ukraine over the longer time automatically prevails. It already ha slost ion another regard: the enormous destruction of industrial and economic capacity that already has accumulated, and is still to come.

I also think it is not just dielaism why the US supports Ukraine with military goods so consequently for nthe itme being. That is not idelaism, but a cold-blood calcualtion to use the Ukraine war to let the Russian bleed - the lponger, the better. Russia'S ambition to tlak ons amke erye level with China and the US, and US interest, are absolutely contradictory, of course, and nothing the US wants less than to lift a fourth and fifth grade industrial country with pathetic economic productivity and only ressources and inhumane brutality as export hits, to the same level as oneself. The US uses the Ukriane as a proxy war to keep Russia down. I say that without any psiotive or negative sentiments, I just name the cold facts. I think the trio infernale in Kyiv yesterday also did so, in its own special way.

Plenty of pathos spread by the media, but in the end: only cold-nmblooded power poltlics. The Ukraine currently gets sold and betrayed.

Once again in history. A tragedy.


To hell with dirty Russia - if only we could arrange it.

[Skybird]

And this is true, too. The West shoots it sown knee, and more often and intense as Putin alone could have acchieved that.


Under the sanctions imposed by the West, Vladimir Putin was supposed to be made to relent in the medium term. But now the alliance of Ukraine supporters is feeling the economic consequences more and more painfully. As a result, Western support is beginning to crumble.

While three representatives of Old Europe - Scholz, Draghi and Macron - trudge through the devastation in the Kiev suburbs, the Kremlin ruler and war president speaks out with tantalizing self-assurance. The three EU politicians should use their time with Selensky to take a "realistic look at the situation," he says through the spokesman for the Russian presidential office, Dmitry Peskov.

And that state of affairs, from which Putin's self-assurance feeds, does not look very favorable to the West at the moment. The anti-Putin alliance is smaller, more fragmented, and more ineffective than hoped. Every second shot fired by the West hits its own knee.

1. The idea that Putin could be brought to his knees through economic warfare is proving to be a miscalculation. Economic sanctions have hurt Western societies to a far greater extent, which are suffering from high energy prices and disrupted supply chains, and may now be sliding into recession after the Federal Reserve's emergency braking. "The global economy is at risk," says World Bank President David Malpass.

2. Putin still owns the most important raw materials for Western wealth production: oil and gas. Meanwhile, he has turned the tables, cutting off supplies to Poland, Finland and the Netherlands, and curbing them to France, Italy, the Czech Republic and Austria.

3. Meanwhile, the Western sanctions regime has a high potential for self-injury. Gas deliveries, including to Germany, have been throttled through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline because a gas compressor unit is stuck in Montreal, Canada. It comes from Siemens Energy and may not be delivered because of the Western sanctions regime.

"The turbine is at the factory, Siemens can't pick it up, and not all the other turbines fit," Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller explained the background at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum yesterday.

4. The same trouble on the subject of ship insurance. The latest sanctions imposed by the EU and the UK stipulate that Russian oil tankers may no longer be insured. As a result, "oil tankers will simply not be able to transport Russian oil," explains Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the IMF. He concludes:

"Russia will suffer a loss of revenue, but Europe and the U.S. are likely to suffer from a significant increase in world oil prices."

Right now, the U.S. government is in the process - the Financial Times reports - of softening European sanctions rules in favor of the Russian tanker fleet. Biden has no desire to lose the midterm elections because of astronomical fuel prices.

5. Faster than expected, Putin found an alternative customer for the energy tranches that the West was no longer buying. In India and China, people are particularly happy about the discount that Putin is now granting. And politically, too, not a few stand by him, as is evident on the international stage: 40 heads of state and government, representing some four billion people, were unwilling to condemn Russia's attack on Ukraine at a UN General Assembly meeting.

6. Contrary to what the White House initially hoped, the Chinese are by no means moving away from Putin. They unlocked the war plan at the face-to-face meeting of Putin and Xi Jinping to open the Winter Olympics. They demonstrate the solidity of their arms brotherhood by flying a nuclear-armed fighter jet over the heads of Biden and the heads of government of Australia, India and Japan during the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in Tokyo just 24 days ago.


7. In the developing world, the anti-Putin alliance is not making friends at the moment. Since the war and the sanctions regime are not sparing the food markets either, hunger is looming in Latin America, parts of Asia and Africa. Putin presents himself as the savior of the hungry when he offers to ship Ukraine's annual production of grain, corn and fertilizer through the port terminals he occupies. Ukraine does not want to give its production out of its hands. Starving for freedom?

The bottom line is that economies around the world - and not just in Russia - are now under stress. Apart from the arms companies and oil companies, there are no winners. Putin alone could never have triggered this global energy, food and economic crisis. With the design of his sanctions regime, the West was his willing assistant.


The world is witnessing a spectacle that has already been performed many times in the past: the big players play poker, the little ones croak. And the audience is not as innocent as it feels.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


We are half.hearted, and nthat is the worst way we coukld act. Eiteher we were going "all in", without compromise, or we stay out. But this fearful half-baked back-and-forth that we do right now was the worst option we could have chosen. And with perfect instinct we choosed right this, helped in the deicison by all the other desasters we have needlessly brought upon us in recent years.



I do not like Russia's policy and ambitions, and I am absolutely hostile to Russia, but I can fully understand why they think the West is degenerated and stupid and rotten and corrupt. I think the same about the West and since many years.


This winter will become EXTREMELY funny.