Lil Kim Jong Il is playing with his toys again - Page 3

Oberon · 05-25-09, 04:53 PM

Steel Tombs Op Plan looks pretty solid to my thinking, but the question is the gap between now and then. Something that caught my friends eye whilst we were discussing the news:

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBC

"After the worst harvest for a decade, the World Food Programme believe a quarter of the population of North Korea need food aid.
To divert attention, the government has abruptly broken off talks, test-firing both long- and short-range missiles and then carrying out the underground test, a major escalation, our correspondent says."

Now there's nothing like an empty stomach to motivate people, of course the King of the Communists (I love the idea of generating power from spinning Marx

) will insure that he (if he's still alive) and his military buddies get the best crops of the best, but the lower down you go, eventually you're going to get to a point where there are a group of people with guns who are unhappy, and when that happens it's trouble, so you need to distract them.
It could be that Kim is bargaining on the US striking first, hoping to goad them into hitting their nuclear facilities or something similar, so that he will be able to thrive on the propaganda and feed pictures of US bombers bombing 'innocent Korean children' to his people over and over again, perhaps he hopes that the UN will embargo him more, so that he will be able to show people pictures of starving Korean children and blame the UN for starving them, although that route is a little bit more difficult to take for prolonged periods.
I heard a reporter from Seoul today say that "Some foreign analysts spend their entire lives trying to second guess the DPRK, and they still get it wrong."
The DPRK is a loose cannon, no-one knows which way it will go, or indeed how it is still existing.

Fincuan · 05-25-09, 04:56 PM

FYI World's largets arms exporters. Russia is second, China is way down the list and a whole another country holds the lead with a huge margin. What comes to Vetos I see no reason why anyone should have that right. It's not like China and Russia are the only ones known to sometimes use their Veto on torpedoing "good" resolutions.

GoldenRivet · 05-25-09, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Respenus

First of all, do you really believe that the moment the USA launches its missiles, the Russians, Chinese, Indians all the remainder and the lot who have declared or undeclared nuclear weapons will not launch missile of their own? Do you think Russia will call the USA and ask what is going on? There is a bloody good reasons why no nukes were used after the second world war. Their is no limitation to their use or their effect.

Which brings me to my second point. Let us hypothetically say that the USA obliterates North Korea from the face of the Earth and there is no outside retaliation, what do you think happens to all the radiation? It won't stay confined to the borders of North Korea. No, you'll have an irradiated world, with Russia, China, South Korea, Oceania proper and others suffering from massive radiation poisoning or the land, air, water and people. If they haven't retaliated until now, they will now, as they will search for new land on which to live.

So, launching a nuclear weapon is not as simple as it might appear.

Talk to the missile cause the Kim Jong Il aint listenin'

Task Force · 05-25-09, 06:00 PM

Too bad we cant just put all of north korea on the planet Mercury.

Raptor1 · 05-25-09, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Task Force

Too bad we cant just put all of north korea on the planet Mercury.

Huh? I was under the impression they are there already

Task Force · 05-25-09, 06:06 PM

I didnt think they were.

I thought they were right above south korea.

Skybird · 05-25-09, 06:31 PM

For the time being, N-Korea trades threats for goods. the deal usually goes like this: they provoke, intimidate, have a test, thr world goes loud and crazy, and the bad man promises to play nice for some weeks if he gets what he wants: money, food and energy deliveries.

I currently cannot see anybody being willing to replace this - admitted: bullying - exchnage trade system being replaced with open war. Lresson from the Balkan wars: most of the targetted Serbian tanks escaped, so did most of their heavy artillery, although NATO had undisputed air superiority. Now, N-Korea holds maybe the greatest, at leasts one of the greatest forces of simple artillery pieces worldwide, and much of it is stationed in breach of the Seoul area, or could be moved into reach within one day. To assume that any air force - including then american Air Force - is capable to supress that immense ammount of guntubes from the beginning on so that they are not able to turn most of seoul into ashes, is extremely optimistic, and in the face of the Balkan experinces: naive.

If you talk about war on the Korean peninsula, you will the death of tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilians. Seoul and surroundings is incredibly densely populated.

Realax everybody, take a deep breath, switch on your b rain again. The airstrikes you mdemand will not be started, the allout war is further delayed.

Kim surely is a pain in the lower bottom, but his major threat is not open war in the region, but N-Korea selling key nuke tech to people we do not want to have access to nuke tech. Like with Iran, proliferation is what the game is about. Seen that way, N-Korea's action today and in the past 4 months were pendants to TV commercials. They are advertising.

Hopes of the good-willing peace-at-all-cost-fans that the problem will solve itself if only you wait long enough, also are off track. A Korean reunification, an opening to the south or the West, would mean that the N-korean poulation learns information the rgime cannot control, so the people will learn the turth about their situation and this simply means the end of the power-basis of the regime. Therefore, the regime will never allow such events to happen, and will not allow peace-promoting actions to lead too far.

Only current option I see as realistic is to contain proliferation efforts, and to infiltrate N-korea's nuke tech induistry as good as possible. To contain proliferation, you need both Russia and china, who have economic interests. - Maybe you now see why I say it is so very very stupid and shortsighted to always provoke Russia (and China). This Korean issue is a thousand times more important than all Georgia, Ukraine and Aserbaidjhan will and can ever be. Instead we must find the key triggers that make Russia and China agree to isolate N-korea and control it's borders strictly and hopefully contain proliferation. We need to polay for time, and an unknown ammount of it. I hate to need playing for time, but that'S how it is. Korea is currently mor eimportant than Iran, and both nations thrat potential bases not so much on them starting world war III, but proliferation. The main tool to prevent that can only be infiltration, targetted elimination, intel operations, surgical counter terror operations, supporting local opposition and trying to trigger a coup, if possible (not likely) - not air strikes. And this is true for N-korea as well as Iran, at least as long as you are not willing to use nuclear weapons yourself in the first, and will the death of hundreds of thousands of innocents. Using nukes I see as the only valid military option, every other military option currently seems to be doomed to cause not an end with horror, but horror without end. That'S why I am a bit gloomy about military options in this case. we even do not know where the nukes are. we do not know it in case of Korea. not in case of Pakistan. And we do not know the precise coordinates of key components of the Iranian program. If we would know these informations, I would all be for an immediate total nuclear strike to take these nuclear targets out completely and close these ongpoing annoyjng chapters of world policy. but we do not know, so - as long as I hear no better option, we need to play for time. If times go by and things turning worse, we still can launch wars and massacre some hundred thousand people. But we must not hurry ahead with it. Nuclear war is not fun.

Platapus · 05-25-09, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fincuan

FYI World's largets arms exporters. Russia is second, China is way down the list and a whole another country holds the lead with a huge margin. What comes to Vetos I see no reason why anyone should have that right. It's not like China and Russia are the only ones known to sometimes use their Veto on torpedoing "good" resolutions.

I agree, the single veto concept on the UNSC really needs to go. But I can't see any of the big five giving that power away. It is too valuable.

CaptainHaplo · 05-25-09, 09:09 PM

NK isn't going to move against SK - they know they might be able to TAKE Sk - but they could never HOLD it. They also know that if they tried, they would be looking at a response that would remove the existing heirarchy of authority in NK.

What has to be understood is that saber rattling is something BOTH korea's are good at. However, NK may be at an advantage military wise, they lack the infrastructure to hold on to any military gain long term. Thus it makes no sense for them to actually invade SK. However, it DOES make sense for them to rattle a saber and get some more "goodies" from the world.

Much ado about nothing really. China doesn't want a nuclear NK any more than Russia - they will more than likely take care of the issue well before we would need to address it.

bookworm_020 · 05-26-09, 12:43 AM

With NK having such large stocks of chemical and bio weapons, it can do great damage across the South even without a nuclear weapon. This is one of the reasons why there has been no military action against them to this point.

Cutting off supplies of food and oil would get a reaction, but it might not be pretty. I don't think China would back the North as they did in the 50's as the nuclear test have caused them to loose face and they know that they would be hurt if they backed them, openly or not.

baggygreen · 05-26-09, 06:36 AM

I can't help but wonder where the special forces are, indeed where they have been for the past however long.. surely nobody would condemn the demise of this clown. Shame he's so cagey now though.

My problem is this. We know that most aid doesn't go to the people and yet we throw more at them. With that aid money, they build - and apparently are getting cloer to perfecting - icbms and nukes. next step will be miniaturising nukes, which will happen. When they've got baby nukes, thats when the trouble begins, because the tech will be shared.

Does anyone really, sincerely doubt that the Syrians had a reactor which the israelis destroyed? and does anybody doubt that NK was involved? Does anyone doubt that the Iranians had a vested interest? That is the real threat.

no substantive action of any kind can be taken against NK because they are holding a number of aces. It's a free place to research and develop, and the irony is that the west has funded it! The only real way to have any effect on NK is a complete aid embargo, given as pretty well everything else is already stopped. But we can't do that because in the west we have a sense of ethics which says punishing the civilians is bad.

My question is this. What is worse for the civvies - us not throwing aid theway of NK and pretty well the entire population living as they already do? Or us continuing the aid programs, which serve only to benefit the horrid excuse for leadership they have there, who do little but oppress the civvies anyway?

rubenandthejets · 05-26-09, 08:45 AM

The rockets are probably too unreliable to hit the USa, but the world's second biggest economy and the region's staunchest US ally is well within reach.

South Korea can be easily annihilated by conventional means, but Japan is a big fat nuke magnet. It's not like there will be any love lost in that little exchange. With Japan's constitution limiting its milliatry options and causing a enough confusion to let a sneaky missile evade the Patriot, Aegis and other anti missile systems, it's not unlikely that in the event of a "shootin' war" we'd see mushroom clouds over the land of the rising sun.

As a resident of greater Tokyo, it's not something I'd like to see. My dad said seeing the bones of his hand in front of his face off Montebello was pretty amazing, but I'll pass....

Skybird · 05-26-09, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubenandthejets

The rockets are probably too unreliable to hit the USa, but the world's second biggest economy and the region's staunchest US ally is well within reach.

???

They are unreliable to hit the US, so you claim, by that you conclude they can hit Europe nevertheless?

Or have you confused economy sizes? The IMF marks the US GDP at 14.3 trillion $US in January 2009 , Eurostat marks the EU GDP with 17.43 trillion $US (=12.506 trillion euros) in May 2009.

Chinese GDP ranks at around 7-8 trillion $US, Japan at around 5 trillion $US.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baggygreen

I can't help but wonder where the special forces are, indeed where they have been for the past however long.. surely nobody would condemn the demise of this clown.

If we would note them, they probably would not be worth to be called special forces.

Kapitan_Phillips · 05-26-09, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

If we would note them, they probably would not be worth to be called special forces.

Fair point

Hanomag · 05-27-09, 03:11 PM

Kim ..."Dont you know HOW PHUC'n Busy I am !!!"

"Hans Brixx.. Oh Noooooooooo!" :rotfl:

05-25-09, 06:00 PM	#34
Task Force Rear Admiral Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: SPACE!!!! Posts: 10,142 Downloads: 85 Uploads: 0	Too bad we cant just put all of north korea on the planet Mercury. __________________ Task Force industries "Taking control of the world, one mind at a time"

05-25-09, 06:06 PM	#36
Task Force Rear Admiral Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: SPACE!!!! Posts: 10,142 Downloads: 85 Uploads: 0	I didnt think they were. I thought they were right above south korea. __________________ Task Force industries "Taking control of the world, one mind at a time"

05-25-09, 06:31 PM	#37
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,683 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	For the time being, N-Korea trades threats for goods. the deal usually goes like this: they provoke, intimidate, have a test, thr world goes loud and crazy, and the bad man promises to play nice for some weeks if he gets what he wants: money, food and energy deliveries. I currently cannot see anybody being willing to replace this - admitted: bullying - exchnage trade system being replaced with open war. Lresson from the Balkan wars: most of the targetted Serbian tanks escaped, so did most of their heavy artillery, although NATO had undisputed air superiority. Now, N-Korea holds maybe the greatest, at leasts one of the greatest forces of simple artillery pieces worldwide, and much of it is stationed in breach of the Seoul area, or could be moved into reach within one day. To assume that any air force - including then american Air Force - is capable to supress that immense ammount of guntubes from the beginning on so that they are not able to turn most of seoul into ashes, is extremely optimistic, and in the face of the Balkan experinces: naive. If you talk about war on the Korean peninsula, you will the death of tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilians. Seoul and surroundings is incredibly densely populated. Realax everybody, take a deep breath, switch on your b rain again. The airstrikes you mdemand will not be started, the allout war is further delayed. Kim surely is a pain in the lower bottom, but his major threat is not open war in the region, but N-Korea selling key nuke tech to people we do not want to have access to nuke tech. Like with Iran, proliferation is what the game is about. Seen that way, N-Korea's action today and in the past 4 months were pendants to TV commercials. They are advertising. Hopes of the good-willing peace-at-all-cost-fans that the problem will solve itself if only you wait long enough, also are off track. A Korean reunification, an opening to the south or the West, would mean that the N-korean poulation learns information the rgime cannot control, so the people will learn the turth about their situation and this simply means the end of the power-basis of the regime. Therefore, the regime will never allow such events to happen, and will not allow peace-promoting actions to lead too far. Only current option I see as realistic is to contain proliferation efforts, and to infiltrate N-korea's nuke tech induistry as good as possible. To contain proliferation, you need both Russia and china, who have economic interests. - Maybe you now see why I say it is so very very stupid and shortsighted to always provoke Russia (and China). This Korean issue is a thousand times more important than all Georgia, Ukraine and Aserbaidjhan will and can ever be. Instead we must find the key triggers that make Russia and China agree to isolate N-korea and control it's borders strictly and hopefully contain proliferation. We need to polay for time, and an unknown ammount of it. I hate to need playing for time, but that'S how it is. Korea is currently mor eimportant than Iran, and both nations thrat potential bases not so much on them starting world war III, but proliferation. The main tool to prevent that can only be infiltration, targetted elimination, intel operations, surgical counter terror operations, supporting local opposition and trying to trigger a coup, if possible (not likely) - not air strikes. And this is true for N-korea as well as Iran, at least as long as you are not willing to use nuclear weapons yourself in the first, and will the death of hundreds of thousands of innocents. Using nukes I see as the only valid military option, every other military option currently seems to be doomed to cause not an end with horror, but horror without end. That'S why I am a bit gloomy about military options in this case. we even do not know where the nukes are. we do not know it in case of Korea. not in case of Pakistan. And we do not know the precise coordinates of key components of the Iranian program. If we would know these informations, I would all be for an immediate total nuclear strike to take these nuclear targets out completely and close these ongpoing annoyjng chapters of world policy. but we do not know, so - as long as I hear no better option, we need to play for time. If times go by and things turning worse, we still can launch wars and massacre some hundred thousand people. But we must not hurry ahead with it. Nuclear war is not fun. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 05-26-09 at 04:29 AM.

05-25-09, 09:09 PM	#39
CaptainHaplo Silent Hunter Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 4,404 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 0	NK isn't going to move against SK - they know they might be able to TAKE Sk - but they could never HOLD it. They also know that if they tried, they would be looking at a response that would remove the existing heirarchy of authority in NK. What has to be understood is that saber rattling is something BOTH korea's are good at. However, NK may be at an advantage military wise, they lack the infrastructure to hold on to any military gain long term. Thus it makes no sense for them to actually invade SK. However, it DOES make sense for them to rattle a saber and get some more "goodies" from the world. Much ado about nothing really. China doesn't want a nuclear NK any more than Russia - they will more than likely take care of the issue well before we would need to address it. __________________ Good Hunting! Captain Haplo

05-26-09, 12:43 AM	#40
bookworm_020 Navy Seal Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Sinking ships off the Australian coast Posts: 5,966 Downloads: 1 Uploads: 0	With NK having such large stocks of chemical and bio weapons, it can do great damage across the South even without a nuclear weapon. This is one of the reasons why there has been no military action against them to this point. Cutting off supplies of food and oil would get a reaction, but it might not be pretty. I don't think China would back the North as they did in the 50's as the nuclear test have caused them to loose face and they know that they would be hurt if they backed them, openly or not. __________________ "There is always one person in any organization who knows whats going on, That person must be fired"

05-25-09, 04:56 PM	#32
Fincuan Admiral Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Suomi, sauna, puukko, perkele Posts: 2,346 Downloads: 39 Uploads: 0	FYI World's largets arms exporters. Russia is second, China is way down the list and a whole another country holds the lead with a huge margin. What comes to Vetos I see no reason why anyone should have that right. It's not like China and Russia are the only ones known to sometimes use their Veto on torpedoing "good" resolutions.

05-26-09, 06:36 AM	#41
baggygreen Sea Lord Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Canberra, ACT, Down Under (really On Top) Posts: 1,880 Downloads: 7 Uploads: 0	I can't help but wonder where the special forces are, indeed where they have been for the past however long.. surely nobody would condemn the demise of this clown. Shame he's so cagey now though. My problem is this. We know that most aid doesn't go to the people and yet we throw more at them. With that aid money, they build - and apparently are getting cloer to perfecting - icbms and nukes. next step will be miniaturising nukes, which will happen. When they've got baby nukes, thats when the trouble begins, because the tech will be shared. Does anyone really, sincerely doubt that the Syrians had a reactor which the israelis destroyed? and does anybody doubt that NK was involved? Does anyone doubt that the Iranians had a vested interest? That is the real threat. no substantive action of any kind can be taken against NK because they are holding a number of aces. It's a free place to research and develop, and the irony is that the west has funded it! The only real way to have any effect on NK is a complete aid embargo, given as pretty well everything else is already stopped. But we can't do that because in the west we have a sense of ethics which says punishing the civilians is bad. My question is this. What is worse for the civvies - us not throwing aid theway of NK and pretty well the entire population living as they already do? Or us continuing the aid programs, which serve only to benefit the horrid excuse for leadership they have there, who do little but oppress the civvies anyway?

05-26-09, 08:45 AM	#42
rubenandthejets 中国水兵 Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 279 Downloads: 20 Uploads: 0	The rockets are probably too unreliable to hit the USa, but the world's second biggest economy and the region's staunchest US ally is well within reach. South Korea can be easily annihilated by conventional means, but Japan is a big fat nuke magnet. It's not like there will be any love lost in that little exchange. With Japan's constitution limiting its milliatry options and causing a enough confusion to let a sneaky missile evade the Patriot, Aegis and other anti missile systems, it's not unlikely that in the event of a "shootin' war" we'd see mushroom clouds over the land of the rising sun. As a resident of greater Tokyo, it's not something I'd like to see. My dad said seeing the bones of his hand in front of his face off Montebello was pretty amazing, but I'll pass.... __________________ HMAS Sydney III "Thorough and Ready"

05-27-09, 03:11 PM	#45
Hanomag Grey Wolf Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: LI NY Posts: 964 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	Kim ..."Dont you know HOW PHUC'n Busy I am !!!" *"Hans Brixx.. Oh Noooooooooo!" :rotfl:* __________________ "Only if I can save first..."