Book George J. Tenet

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by bradclark1

Read the confidence levels at the bottom of the text.

I'm not sure how you can asses he has WMD or is expanding if you can't detect portions of the program?

Excellent question. The answer is simple: read what you quote in its context.

It is one of the "High Confidence" points. Now read them all together:

Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding, its chemical, biological, nuclear and missile programs contrary to UN resolutions.

We are not detecting portions of these weapons programs.

Iraq possesses proscribed chemical and biological weapons and missiles.

Iraq could make a nuclear weapon in months to a year once it acquires sufficient weapons-grad fissile material.

If they were most highly confident about all these points, the lack of detection means something went stealth and that should have been an obvious panic button pusher.

[bradclark1]

Originally Posted by The Avon Lady

It is one of the "High Confidence" points. Now read them all together:

If they were most highly confident about all these points, the lack of detection means something went stealth and that should have been an obvious panic button pusher.

To you it does. You are doing nothing but making a guess. No proof and that one statement points out in a big way that the other two statements are questionable.

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by bradclark1

To you it does. You are doing nothing but making a guess. No proof and that one statement points out in a big way that the other two statements are questionable.

It requires nothing more than the simple reading of 4 lines of English.

And, repeat, these points are marked by intel as being highly confident in their accuracy.

In fact, there would have been very little for any president to "guess" if these points were considered accurate and the safety of 300,000,000 fellow countrymen was assumed at stake.

[bradclark1]

Originally Posted by The Avon Lady

It requires nothing more than the simple reading of 4 lines of English.

It requires nothing more then simple then reading the second line to question the other three.

And, repeat, these points are marked by intel as being highly confident in their accuracy.

Where is your proof? Everything I've read said it had always been shakey intel. Of course if you point to the above lines I'll once again point to the second line so please provide something else.

In fact, there would have been very little for any president to "guess" if these points were considered accurate and the safety of 300,000,000 fellow countrymen was assumed at stake.

What clear and present danger to the U.S. did Saddam pose? Being a pain in the butt doesn't count.

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by bradclark1

It requires nothing more then simple then reading the second line to question the other three.

Where is your proof? Everything I've read said it had always been shakey intel. Of course if you point to the above lines I'll once again point to the second line so please provide something else.

I'm afraid I'm stuck trying to point out the obvious to you. The main title of the section containing the sentence you singled out is "Confidence Levels for Selected Key Judgments in This Estimate". The subtitle of the section containing the sentence you singled out, which contains the other 3 sentences, which you wish would magically disappear, is "High Confidence".

Do the math.

What clear and present danger to the U.S. did Saddam pose? Being a pain in the butt doesn't count.

Dictionary definition:

loop - see "loop"

[The Avon Lady]

Georgie Porgie pudding and pie,
Kissed the girls and made them cry
When the boys came out to play,
Georgie Porgie ran away.

More disputations on tenets recollections (maybe that should be "recollections" in scare quotes): Tenet Strikes Out.

[bradclark1]

Originally Posted by The Avon Lady

Dictionary definition:

loop - see "loop"

Yeah, I agree.

[The Avon Lady]

Contentions against Tenet's book are now being picked up by the mass media. That bottom of that article sums it up:

A half-dozen former CIA officers — including counterterrorism experts Larry Johnson and Vince Cannistraro — are urging Tenet to dedicate a significant portion of his royalties to soldiers and families of those killed or wounded in Iraq.

"We agree that the war of choice in Iraq was ill-advised and wrong headed. But your lament that you are a victim in a process you helped direct is self-serving, misleading and, as head of the intelligence community, an admission of failed leadership," they wrote.

[Heibges]

The Project for the New American Century is a think tank which comes up with new threats do justify increases in defense spending.

You wouldn't think they would allow so many cowards and draft dodgers on their principles list though?

For Tenet to have real credibility, he should have made this stink a lot earlier. Like before we invaded.

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by Heibges

The Project for the New American Century is a think tank which comes up with new threats do justify increases in defense spending.

You wouldn't think they would allow so many cowards and draft dodgers on their principles list though?

Please explain. :hmm:

EDIT:

For Tenet to have real credibility, he should have made this stink a lot earlier. Like before we invaded

Now, that I understand.

[Heibges]

Originally Posted by The Avon Lady

Please explain. :hmm:

EDIT:

Now, that I understand.

Because Jeb Bush, Dan Quayle, and Dick Cheney avoided service in Vietnam like the plague. Now that they are old, they are all for sending young boys off to fight god knows where for god knows what. In my opinion, this makes them draft dodgers and cowards.

George Bush had the audacity to smear John McCain over his being a POW.

In the words of Colin Powel "("I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well-placed... managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units..."

This of course had the added benefit of destroying the relationship between the RA and the NG: severly weakening the Army.

[The Avon Lady]

Originally Posted by Heibges

Because Jeb Bush, Dan Quayle, and Dick Cheney avoided service in Vietnam like the plague. Now that they are old, they are all for sending young boys off to fight god knows where for god knows what. In my opinion, this makes them draft dodgers and cowards.

Could be but that alone doesn't invalidate their decision to go to war and the reasons why this war was declared was spelled out to the public more than once.

George Bush had the audacity to smear John McCain over his being a POW.

Where was this?

In the words of Colin Powel "("I am angry that so many of the sons of the powerful and well-placed... managed to wangle slots in Reserve and National Guard units..."

Like this guy, too?

Oops.

This of course had the added benefit of destroying the relationship between the RA and the NG: severly weakening the Army.

Sorry. What are these abbreviations?

EDIT: What does any of the above have to do with Tenet, which is the subject of this thread?

UPDATE: If you wish to use Powell as your inspiration, allow me to remind you of this interview. As an aside, note Powell's disagreement with Bob Woodward's claims.

While we're at it, here are some more Powell quotes of yesteryear:

“‘The biggest s.o.b. on the block’ rule. America should enter fights with every bit of force available or not at all.” (Time, April 19, 2001).

“Go in full force from the beginning rather than escalate yourself into a quagmire. Or don’t go in at all.” (Slate Magazine,March 27, 1999).

“Overwhelming U.S. force assures success at minimum risk to Americans in uniform.” (Boston Globe, Jan. 19, 2001).

[Heibges]

Bush Supporters Called McCain “The Fag Candidate.” In South Carolina, Bush supporters circulated church fliers that labeled McCain “the fag candidate.” Columnist Frank Rich noted that the fliers were distributed “even as Bush subtly reinforced that message by indicating he wouldn’t hire openly gay people for his administration.”

McCain Slurs Included Illegitimate Children, Homosexuality And A Drug-Addict Wife.
Among the rumors circulated against McCain in 2000 in South Carolina was that his adopted Bangladeshi daughter was actually black, that McCain was both gay and cheated on his wife, and that his wife Cindy was a drug addict.”

Bush Campaign Used Code Words to Question McCain’s Temper.
“A smear campaign of the ugliest sort is now coursing through the contest for the presidency in 2000. Using the code word "temper," a group of Senate Republicans, and at least some outriders of the George W. Bush campaign, are spreading the word that John McCain is unstable. The subtext, also suggested in this whispering campaign, is that he returned from 5 1/2 years as a POW in North Vietnam with a loose screw. And it is bruited about that he shouldn't be entrusted with nuclear weapons.”

Bush Supporters Questioned McCain’s Sanity.
“Some of George W. Bush's supporters have questioned Republican presidential candidate John McCain's fitness for the White House, suggesting that his five years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam drove him insane at the time.”

Bush Supporters Spread Racist Rumors About McCain’s Daughter.
Bush supporters in South Carolina made race-baiting phone calls saying that McCain had a “black child.” The McCains’ daughter, Bridget, was adopted from Mother Teresa’s orphanage in Bangladesh. In August 2000, columnist Maureen Dowd wrote that the McCains “are still seething about Bush supporters in South Carolina spreading word of their dark-skinned adopted daughter.”

Rove Suggests Former POW McCain Committed Treason and Fathered Child With Black Prostitute.
In 2000, McCain operatives in SC accused Rove of spreading rumors against McCain, such as “suggestions that McCain had committed treason while a prisoner of war, and had fathered a child by a black prostitute,” according to the New Yorker.

After Rove Denied Role In McCain Whisper Campaign, Reporters Concluded He Was Behind It.
A December 1999 Dallas Morning News linked Rove to a series of campaign dirty tricks, including his College Republican efforts, allegedly starting a whisper campaign about Ann Richard being too gay-friendly, spreading stories about Jim Hightower’s involvement in a kickback scheme and leaking the educational history of Lena Guerrero. The article also outlined current dirty tricks and whisper campaigns against McCain in South Carolina, including that “McCain may be unstable as a result of being tortured while a prisoner of war in North Vietnam.” (DMN, 12/2/99) After the article was published, Rove blasted Slater in the Manchester, NH airport, “nose to nose” according to one witness, with Rove claiming Slater had “harmed his reputation,” Slater later noted. But according to one witness, “What was interesting then is that everyone on the campaign charter concluded that Rove was responsible for rumors about McCain.”

Rove Was In Close Touch With McConnell, McCain-Feingold’s Chief Opponent.
Senior White House adviser Karl Rove was in close contact with Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) during McConnell’s effort to fight the McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Bill in the U.S. Senate. According to Newsweek, though Rove and Bush have publicly kept their distance from McConnell on the issue, “sources tell Newsweek that Rove is, in fact, in close touch with McConnell as GOP experts study the bill for hidden land mines.”

Bush Campaign Accused of Using Push Polls Against McCain.
College of Charleston student Suzette Latsko said she received a telephone call from a woman who identified herself as an employee of Voter/Consumer Research, and that the caller misrepresented McCain’s positions and asked if Latsko knew McCain had been reprimanded for interfering with federal regulators in the savings and loan scandal. Voter/Consumer Research is listed as a polling contractor on Bush’s Federal Election Commission filings; the Bush campaign has paid Voter/Consumer Research $93,000 through December 31, 1999. Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer denied the call was a push poll, but said it was important that the Republican Party remember McCain’s role in the S&L crisis.

Bush Campaign Acknowledged Making Phone Calls.
Tucker Eskew, Bush’s South Carolina spokesman, acknowledged the Bush campaign made such calls, but claimed they were not “push polls.” Eskew added, “Show me a baseless comment in those questions.”

Bush Used Fringe Veterans Group to Attack McCain as “Manchurian Candidate.”
“In the case of Ted Sampley, the same guy who did Bush's dirty work in going after Sen. John McCain in the 2000 Republican primaries is doing the job against Kerry this year. Sampley dared compare McCain, who spent five years as a Vietnam POW, with ‘the Manchurian Candidate.’”

Sampley Called McCain a “Coward” and a Traitor.
“Sampley… accused McCain of being a weak-minded coward who had escaped death by collaborating with the enemy. Sampley claimed that McCain had first been compromised by the Vietnamese, then recruited by the Soviets.”

RA= Regular Army
NG= National Guard

Clinton is definitely a draft dodger too. He lacked to guts to say he believed the Vietnam War was wrong, and pretty much tried to dodge the issue.

I fully agree with Powel that you should come big or stay home. Unfortunately, in a civil war in another country, it is not possible to bring full military power to bear.

Just trying to provide background on the types of folks involved in the "Project for a New American Century".

Bob Woodward is a funny character. He worked in Naval Intelligence, and used to brief Alexander Haig long before he was at the Washington Post. I thought for years that Haig was Deepthroat. I would take anything Bob Woodward says with a grain of salt.

[The Avon Lady]

OT: I just had to laugh when I saw Frank Rich mentioned.

Back on topic, some more verbatim quote from Tenet's new book that will make some people here wonder why they were so happy to bring the subject up in the first place:

Page 328:

The absence of evidence and linear thinking, and Iraq’s extensive efforts to conceal illicit procurement of proscribed components, told us that a deceptive regime could and would easily surprise us. It was never a question of a known, imminent threat; it was about an unwillingness to risk surprise.

Page 325-326:

Perhaps the most widely misunderstood section of the NIE dealt with yellowcake, an element that can be enriched to make nuclear weapons-grade uranium. The Estimate included an account of Saddam’s reported attempts to procure yellowcake from the African nation of Niger, taken from a September 2002 paper by the Defense Intelligence Agency. That account, told in a few paragraphs on page twenty-four of the document, was not a major pillar of the NIE. The Estimate noted that Saddam already had access to large amounts of yellowcake in Iraq—550 tons of it, enough to produce as many as 100 nuclear weapons. This yellowcake was supposed to be under seal by international inspectors, but that was at best a flimsy wall of protection.

Although it would looms large in subsequent criticisms of the NIE, the Niger yellowcake was not among the half dozen reasons cited why all agencies, with the exception of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), believed that Iraq was resuming its nuclear weapons program. Even INR wrote in the NIE that it believed Iraq was pursuing “at least a limited effort” to “acquire nuclear weapons related capabilities” and that the evidence indicated “at most a limited reconstitution effort.”

We assessed that Saddam did not have a nuclear weapon and that if he had to make his own fissile material he probably would not be able to do so until 2007 to 2009. However, we indicated in the NIE that we had only moderate confidence in that judgment. We also indicated that INR thought that, although Saddam clearly wanted nuclear weapons, there was inadequate evidence to prove that he had an ongoing integrated and comprehensive program to develop them.

If Saddam could obtain fissile material elsewhere, it would not be hard for the regime to make a weapon within a year. After all, we believed that some terrorist groups could do so if they came into possession of the all-important highly enriched uranium or plutonium.

Page 324-325:

In early 2001, Iraq had been caught trying to clandestinely procure sixty thousand high-strength aluminum tubes manufactured to extraordinary tight tolerances. The tubes were seized in the Middle East. The Iraqi agent tried in vain to get the tubes released, claiming they were to be used in Lebanon to make race car components. Whatever their intended use, under UN sanctions, Saddam was prohibited from acquiring the tubes for any purpose. All agencies agreed that these tubes could be modified to make centrifuge rotors used in a nuclear program. CIA analysts believed that these tubes were intended for the enrichment of uranium. Others thought they were intended to make rockets. To test the theory, CIA brought together a “red team” of highly experienced experts from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory—people who had actually built centrifuges. Their assessment was that the tubes were more suited for nuclear use than for anything else. The Department of Energy’s representative at the NFIB delivered his agency’s assessment that the tubes were probably not part of a nuclear program. He was not a technical expert, however, and, despite being given several opportunities, he was unable to explain the basis of his department’s view in anything approaching a convincing manner.

Finally, here are 2 mea culpas, from page 322:

"In hindsight, even though policy makers were not showing much curiosity, that was the time we should have initiated a new series of analytical reports on Iraqi WMD and other issues regarding the implications of conflict in Iraq. This was my responsibility. But back then, I was consumed with al-Qa’ida—the people really trying to kill us—and I didn’t pay enough attention to another gathering storm.

...................

I reluctantly agreed and on September 12, 2002, directed the National Intelligence Council staff to initiate a crash project to produce an NIE on the “status of and outlook for Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs.” The NIE was to answer two key questions on nuclear weapons: Did Saddam have them, and if not, when could he get them? I expected no surprises.

What is wrong with this picture?!