Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It does cost the Russian a lot of men, young men, to take 100 meters each time and I haven't mentioned the lost of materials.
For how long can Russia keep on losing men at this speed with volunteers and not using conscript in Ukraine ?

Markus

According to their findings, between February 2022 and May 2024, the average age of Russian soldiers killed in action increased from 30.2 in early 2022 to 37.8 by July 2024.

III. Implications and Conclusions
This trend indicates that as the war continues, older recruits are increasingly being sent to the front lines, which signals serious problems that have a direct influence on the overall combat effectiveness of Russian forces. This raises questions about the sustainability of Russia's recruitment approach and the long-term viability of its war if the average age of its soldiers continues to rise.

The key point is that the individuals signing contracts come from civilian demographics, not from career military personnel who might regularly pass fitness tests. While precise data on the general fitness of these recruits is lacking, the World Health Organization reports that the pre-war life expectancy at birth for Russian males was 65.6 years, with a healthy life expectancy of 58.2 years.

This suggests that the Russian government not only has to offer significantly higher payments to recruit individuals but also ends up with recruits who may be less fit for combat roles, either partially or fully.

While the data presented may still contain some inaccuracies, errors, or potential duplicates, the trend is consistent with findings from other investigations and metrics reported by investigative groups, as well as with the anecdotal observations we reported earlier. Although Ukrainian demographics are anything but better than Russian ones, the extensive focus on Ukrainian manpower issues has fostered a perception that Ukraine is doomed due to seemingly endless Russian human resources and high recruitment numbers. Our research has demonstrated that this perception is misleading and indicates that Russia’s ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations with territorial gains, based on a manpower advantage, is not as sustainable as it seems in the long run.

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 598,180 (+1,230 per day), 8,501 tanks, 16,985 artillery systems, 16,473 armoured combat vehicles.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 17.08.24 are approximately:

personnel - about 598,180 (+1,230) people,
tanks ‒ 8501 (+5) units,
armored combat vehicles ‒ 16,473 (+12) units,
artillery systems – 16,985 (+58) units,
RSZV – 1160 (+1) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 923 (+1) units,
aircraft – 367 (+0) units,
helicopters – 328 (+0) units,
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 13,714 (+55),
cruise missiles ‒ 2432 (+3),
ships/boats ‒ 28 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks – 22,913 (+65) units,
special equipment ‒ 2844 (+15).
Source: https://censor.net/en/n3505188

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

According to their findings, between February 2022 and May 2024, the average age of Russian soldiers killed in action increased from 30.2 in early 2022 to 37.8 by July 2024.

If this increasing of average age keep on going we will within the next couple of years from now see 55-60 years old Russian volunteers in Ukraine.

Even the Ukrainians has their problems with the manpower. They have also seen an increase in the average of men's age.(This I'm pretty sure of)

Markus

[mapuc]

Is a 2nd Ukrainian offensive on its way ? Wouldn't it be better to use these forces around Donetsk where Russia have the momentum ?



Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Is a 2nd Ukrainian offensive on its way ? Wouldn't it be better to use these forces around Donetsk where Russia have the momentum ?

Markus

Military no in Donetsk Russian have a large troop concentration if you do an offensive you do it on the weakest spot of your enemy, you do not want to run into a wall of fire.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Military no in Donetsk Russian have a large troop concentration if you do an offensive you do it on the weakest spot of your enemy, you do not want to run into a wall of fire.

I didn't mean they should conduct their offensive there in Donetsk, I meant use them as defense.

On the other hand-Offensive against Crimea may force Russia to withdraw huge amount of troops from areas like Donetsk.

Markus

[Dargo]

Exactly, but I do not think Ukraine will go into Crimea they do not have the equipment to do a landing keep supplying that kinda bridgehead remember they do not have a navy or the air support to pull this off. Amphibious warfare is always risky. Since the 20th century, an amphibious landing of troops on a beachhead is acknowledged as the most complex of all military manoeuvres. The undertaking requires an intricate coordination of numerous military specialities, including air power, naval gunfire, naval transport, logistical planning, specialized equipment, land warfare, tactics, and extensive training in the nuances of this manoeuvre for all personnel involved. In Donetsk, it still a stalemate Russia is crawling forwards but only at huge cost sending more by Ukraine will not change anything give a month or two and Russia is crawling out of steam there everything has its limits.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Exactly, but I do not think Ukraine will go into Crimea they do not have the equipment to do a landing keep supplying that kinda bridgehead remember they do not have a navy or the air support to pull this off. Amphibious warfare is always risky. Since the 20th century, an amphibious landing of troops on a beachhead is acknowledged as the most complex of all military manoeuvres. The undertaking requires an intricate coordination of numerous military specialities, including air power, naval gunfire, naval transport, logistical planning, specialized equipment, land warfare, tactics, and extensive training in the nuances of this manoeuvre for all personnel involved. In Donetsk, it still a stalemate Russia is crawling forwards but only at huge cost sending more by Ukraine will not change anything give a month or two and Russia is crawling out of steam there everything has its limits.

I didn't think in those terms. Which mean if there is a 2nd offensive on its way it must be either in the Kursk oblast or a second front somewhere near the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Markus

[mapuc]

He has always a positive view on the situation-Nothing wrong with that, I have a positive view myself



Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Germany freezes military aid for Ukraine leaving Kyiv facing air strikes

Germany has stunned Ukraine after announcing a freeze to military aid, as Kyiv's forces struggle to repel a Russian advance in the Donbas.

Olaf Scholz's government claims a budgetary crisis means it can no longer afford to supply Ukraine with new weapons.

However, opponents have accused the German Chancellor of "hypocrisy" and of making a cynical play to win votes in federal elections this autumn.

Scholz reportedly told his Defence Minister Boris Pistorius that no more money for weapons would be forthcoming earlier this month, according to the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper.

Pistorius had drawn up a wish list for €4billion (£3.4billion) in additional military supplies to Ukraine.

But he was told by the Finance Ministry that the government's priority had switched to cutting federal spending and that no more money would be forthcoming.
The freeze in military aid will not affect outstanding orders but has already impacted new ones.

After a Russian air strike on a Kyiv children's hospital in July, Diehl Defence, the arms manufacturer, offered to supply an IRIS-T air defence system to help defend the Ukrainian capital's airspace.

Scholz, however, reportedly refused to pay for the missile system, despite the deal being backed by his Defence Minister.

The move is said to have caused severe friction inside the German government, with both the defence and foreign ministries opposing the freeze.

The news could not come at a worse time for Kyiv's army, which is coming under severe pressure in the Donbas, where Russian troops are advancing on the city of Pokrovsk - a strategic road and rail hub.

Ukraine's army says it is running short of critical ammunition and spare parts for its German-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles.

On its official website, the German government says it has so far provided or committed for future years military assistance with a value of approximately €28billion (£24bn).

Scholz's political opponents have accused him of trying to win over voters in Germany's eastern states, who are opposed to the war in Ukraine.

This September, voters will go to the polls in state elections to elect new regional governments.

Ingo Gädechens, an MP for the centre-Right Christian Democrats, said that Scholz had engaged in an "unprecedented spectacle of hypocrisy" by promising Kyiv unconditional support while trying to pose as a "peace chancellor" at home.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...32afa54d&ei=66

[mapuc]

Why does Ukraine have success in Kursk oblast, while they are on the defensive in Donetsk oblast.



Markus

[mapuc]

I didn't knew they were so desperate

The law comes after the flow of volunteers to the army has dwindled. It is now necessary to force men into the army to keep the Russians in check on the more than 1,000 kilometer front where Putin's troops are looking for a breakthrough.

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Markus

[Skybird]

Population before the war:
Russia 114.1 million
Ukraine 43.8 million

Population end of 2022:
Russia 114.2 million
Ukraine 38 million (in Ukraine)

Source: World Bank

Guess who has bigger problems to found troops. Please nobody makes this complicated again.

And the Russian economy? It has significantly more weight than that of Ukraine, of course, already before the war, and now with much of Ukraine's critical infrastructure, energy and production in ruins, even more so. Many hope Russian economy nevertheless will collapse in the future. That is possible if they turn to peacetime standards again, but I am not so optimistic. In fact Russia will have little problems with the economy in the long term even after a formal end of the hostilities in Ukraine if Russia continues to maintain a wartime production economy. In other words, it is very likely that even after the war it will continue to stay in a very high military production modus operandi. In other words: a new massive arms race for which Europe is not mentally (nor practically) prepared. The US is mentally better prepared, but even its production capacities have limits. Cheap mass wepaons are easier to produce than the sophisticated, overly expensive super high tech gadgets the West prefers to have - in much smaller quantities.

Europe must take a crahs course in learning to forsee this and adapt to it by finally, FINALLY, getting its stupid acts together. The situation will not relax after the war in Ukraine "ended". And the reason is as simple as it is logical: Russia cannot afford peace anymore.

[mapuc]

I let him speak for me.



Markus