The energy thread

[Skybird]

In Germany we dont buy energy cheaper in summer either. Prices the consumer must pay and priuces at the energy markets are completely disconnected. And that is even politically wanted and designed to be so.



German energy policy is examplary only for one thing: how not to run energy policies.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

^ Unrealistic, I think. Germany has the by far biggest low wages labour sector amongst all Western industrial countries.





Industry- and business electricity is even worse, usually for Germany factors of 2-3 get mentioned when it its about how much more eletcitc power cots the diisutrey when conmar9ng to the US, China. Of those companies - MANY conmaonies - that leave Germany or shut down, rthey all list a couple of shared reasons, high energy costs are always amongst them, and inc ase of prudcing conmonies: the degradign staiblity of the grid, leading to micro blackouts from several tens of seocnds to a small number of minutes that do enormously costly damages.


Electricity is a major reason for Germany's decline. Not the only one, but a major one.

[Dargo]

Superb plan of Frau Merkel to close nuclear energy.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Superb plan of Frau Merkel to close nuclear energy.

Yep, she was brilliant in completing Erich Honecker's late revenge on the BRD.

Two years ago I paid 36 Euros per month for electric power. Now its 66 Euros. The difference is the green-red contribution from Scholz and Gang.

[Otto Harkaman]

Germany's Growing Dependence on U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas: An Evolving Energy Partnership
As Europe grapples with energy security issues following shifts in the global energy landscape, Germany’s dependence on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) has emerged as a significant factor in its energy strategy. Historically reliant on Russian gas, Germany's energy policies underwent a dramatic shift after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, leading to an increased focus on diversifying gas supplies. This article examines Germany’s rising dependence on U.S. LNG, the underlying factors, and the projections for future trends in this energy partnership.

Germany's Energy Shift: From Russian Gas to LNG Imports
Before the Ukraine crisis, Germany relied heavily on Russian natural gas, which accounted for over half of its natural gas imports. This changed almost overnight when Germany decided to phase out Russian gas due to security concerns. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, designed to double the amount of gas directly transported from Russia to Germany, became irrelevant after the German government suspended its certification.
The rapid pivot toward LNG became the cornerstone of Germany's strategy to ensure energy security and independence. However, Germany had limited infrastructure for receiving and processing LNG. In response, Germany invested in building its first LNG terminals, with operational sites in Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel and others under development. This infrastructure expansion has paved the way for increased LNG imports, particularly from the United States.

U.S. LNG: A Reliable Alternative?
The U.S. emerged as a prominent LNG supplier to Europe, stepping in to fill the gap left by Russia. In 2022 alone, U.S. LNG exports to Europe skyrocketed, with Germany among the primary beneficiaries. By 2023, Germany became one of the largest importers of U.S. LNG in Europe.
American LNG is not only seen as reliable but also strategically aligned with Germany's goals of reducing dependence on Russian energy. With LNG, Germany gains flexibility, as shipments are more easily rerouted than pipeline gas. However, the costs associated with LNG imports, including transportation and regasification, are higher than those for pipeline gas. Consequently, Germany faces a trade-off between energy security and energy costs.

Factors Contributing to Continued Dependence on U.S. LNG
Several factors suggest that Germany’s dependence on U.S. LNG is likely to grow in the coming years:

1. Diminishing Domestic Production: Germany's domestic natural gas production is limited and unlikely to meet its demand. Additionally, as Germany continues its transition to renewable energy, natural gas remains an important backup fuel to compensate for intermittent renewable energy generation.
2. EU Climate Goals: Germany aims to reduce its carbon emissions, targeting a complete phase-out of coal by 2038 and potentially accelerating it to 2030. While renewables are expanding, they may not entirely cover the shortfall left by coal. Natural gas, including LNG, is considered a transitional fuel that could bridge the gap until renewables become more stable and scalable.
3. Long-Term Contracts: U.S. energy companies and European buyers, including German utilities, are negotiating long-term contracts for LNG supplies. These agreements could further solidify Germany's reliance on U.S. LNG as both sides commit to sustained energy partnerships.
4. Infrastructure Investments: Germany’s continued investment in LNG terminals and storage facilities points to a long-term strategy that may prioritize LNG over other forms of energy imports.

Challenges and Risks
While U.S. LNG currently offers Germany a feasible alternative to Russian gas, it also presents challenges. The volatility of LNG prices, which are often linked to global oil prices, means that Germany could face higher energy costs. Furthermore, geopolitical factors, such as strained U.S.-EU relations or regulatory changes, could impact LNG supplies.
Additionally, environmental concerns are growing in Germany. LNG production and transportation contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, and there is increasing scrutiny over whether the dependence on LNG aligns with Germany’s green commitments. This pressure could eventually lead to a reevaluation of LNG imports in favor of more aggressive investments in renewable energy and green hydrogen.

Future Projections: Will Germany's Dependence on U.S. LNG Increase?
In the short to medium term, it is likely that Germany's dependence on U.S. LNG will increase. Several factors support this trajectory: the long lead times for expanding renewable infrastructure, the need for energy security, and Germany’s established trade relationship with the United States. Furthermore, as new LNG terminals come online, Germany will have the capacity to import even larger volumes of LNG, positioning it as a primary customer for American gas exporters.
However, in the longer term, Germany aims to transition away from fossil fuels. The expansion of renewable energy sources, technological advancements in energy storage, and the scaling up of green hydrogen production could reduce Germany’s need for LNG by the 2030s. To achieve these goals, Germany would need to balance its current reliance on LNG with investments in sustainable energy infrastructure, potentially decreasing LNG demand in the decades ahead.

Conclusion
Germany’s increased dependence on U.S. LNG underscores an evolving energy relationship shaped by security needs, geopolitical pressures, and environmental goals. In the near term, U.S. LNG will likely remain a crucial component of Germany’s energy portfolio, providing a reliable alternative as the country diversifies away from Russian gas. Yet, Germany’s long-term strategy remains committed to reducing fossil fuel dependence and meeting ambitious climate targets, signaling that this dependency on U.S. LNG may ultimately wane as Germany moves toward a greener energy mix. For now, U.S. LNG is indispensable, but Germany’s commitment to a carbon-neutral future could redefine this partnership over time.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yep, she was brilliant in completing Erich Honecker's late revenge on the BRD.

Two years ago I paid 36 Euros per month for electric power. Now its 66 Euros. The difference is the green-red contribution from Scholz and Gang.

What do you pay for gas?

[Catfish]

^ appx. 9 cent / kwh

[Ostfriese]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Two years ago I paid 36 Euros per month for electric power. Now its 66 Euros. The difference is the green-red contribution from Scholz and Gang.

Most of the difference I have to pay lands in the hands of greedy energy companies that simply refuse to hand down the vastly reduced prices they have to pay for electricity. There's a reason why energy companies have vastly increased their profits in the past two years, and the government has nothing to do with it.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ appx. 9 cent / kwh

Sorry Kai I meant based on individual usage/consumption.

I pay £98 per month for both gas and electricity combined.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Ostfriese

Most of the difference I have to pay lands in the hands of greedy energy companies that simply refuse to hand down the vastly reduced prices they have to pay for electricity. There's a reason why energy companies have vastly increased their profits in the past two years, and the government has nothing to do with it.

Thats a bit simplified, isn't it. The poltically wanted subventions I think are far more relevant. They are coutner.intuitve regarding market mechanics. The more the sun shines and the more the wind blows - the more expensive electricity gets...? C'mon on.

Yes, its really like this in Germany. The power from solar gets the more expensive for the consumer the more the sun shines. Same for wind. With building of ever more soilar panels and win dmills, the prices for power have gone up, not down. And thats due to laws, not just company greed.

Thats why I say often that Germany's energy policy works as only one example to the world: how to NOT run energy policy. Or in Elon Musk's recent words on the German energy policy: the Germans are fools.

[Catfish]

Coal and 'fossil fuels' are heavily subsidized, not only in Germany, much more than the renewable energies. The market is drastically distorted in favour of fossil fuels.

"Adam Smith once described subsidies as a "bounty," a premium or grant. Subsidies for fossil fuels are also government interventions designed to steer the energy market. They play a key role in achieving global climate goals because the incentives distort competition in favor of oil, gas, and coal - and thus make it more difficult to switch to more environmentally friendly resources. Politically, they are therefore a hot potato. In poorer countries in particular, revolutions would be at risk if previously cheap consumer prices for fuel or cooking gas were to rise immeasurably."

https://www-capital-de.translate.goo..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Dargo]

Austria easily replaced Russian gas with wind energy

Austria has not received gas directly from Gazprom for 10 days, but has no problems. Record volumes of electricity from wind farming stations and the maximum hydropower generation in a decade will allow Austrian utilities to work out the starting heating season with minimal gas needs.

Austria’s successful withdrawal from gas could serve as an example for neighboring countries that could reduce collective gas consumption by compensating for electricity losses by increasing its imports through European networks — including from the same Austria.пишет For Gazprom, which has already lost the Nordic markets, this could be an additional blow.

Although this year Austria’s gas needs were more than 80% met at the expense of Russian fuel, the share of gas in the aggregate power generation has fallen below 6%, according to the Ember energy analytical center.

Meanwhile, the wind gave more electricity than gas in 19 of the last 20 months. That is, in the last heating season, Austria for the first time produced more electricity with the help of wind than with the help of gas. A similar situation is observed this season, including thanks to the development of wind energy. In general, it provided 2.5 times more electricity generation than gas in 10 months of this year, and the volume of electricity produced from the wind increased by 18%.
If in the winter of 2024-2025. Wind speed will correspond to the seasonal trend (in the countries of Central and Southern Europe, this speed reaches a peak just at this time of year), then wind generation will exceed gas throughout the winter, which will lead to a decrease in total gas consumption in Austria at such an important moment for the country, Reuters notes.

In addition, more than 3000 hydroelectric power plants in Austria produced 17% more electricity in 10 months of this year than in the same period of the past. Heavy rainfall in late 2023 - early 2024. Filled the tanks to multi-year highs.

Hydrogeneration this year accounted for 68%, wind - 13%, another 10% was given by sun.

Austria’s actions could be an example for neighbouring countries, which are also trying to reduce their dependence on gas imports. In addition, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia and Slovakia are connected to Austria by powerful power grids and can reduce gas consumption through imports of its electricity.

Among other things, the rupture of relations with Gazprom does not mean the complete loss of OMV’s access to Russian gas (at least until the end of the year, there is still a contract for its transit through Ukraine, which Kiev is not going to extend). Austria can, if necessary, buy gas from Slovakia, which continues to receive it from Gazprom. On Tuesday, Austria’s application for gas delivery from Slovakia was 21% higher than on Monday, while the total volume of deliveries to Europe through Ukraine remained at the level of the last weeks – about 42 million cubic meters, Reuters reports, citing data from Gazprom.

Despite the day-large growth, the Austrian application remains lower than until November 16, when Gazprom closed the cra d’t in response to the non-payment of OMV supplies for October. The Austrian company refused to pay in this way to get at least a part of the amount of more than 230 million euros, which it was awarded by the arbitration court for the termination of Gazprom’s exports for its German “daughter” in 2022. Gas storage facilities in Austria are filled by 90.4%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/11/2...-vetra-a148742 Translation is not 100% but heck you get the story.

[Dargo]

The Netherlands looks set to meet its self-imposed target for generating renewable energy by 2030. So says the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, which has looked at the plans for solar and wind energy, among others, of the various regions in our country. The Planning Bureau's analysis shows that 37 to 45 terawatt hours of electricity are likely to be generated by wind and solar farms by 2030. The Netherlands has set 35 terawatt hours as its target in the Climate Agreement. So that seems well within reach. The PBL researchers do warn that all regions are not yet looking closely enough at the long term. Even more is needed to meet all climate goals. The Netherlands wants to be climate-neutral by 2050, which would require the amount of electricity generated to continue to grow by a factor of 3 to 5.

To meet that target, even more new solar and wind farms would have to be built, not only at sea but also on land. But so far, too few new projects are in the pipeline, the researchers warn. Projects are becoming increasingly difficult to set up because space is limited. For instance, the central government does not want solar projects in nature or on agricultural land. Conservation of nature and landscape is also often mentioned by residents as an important issue. PBL calls this a missed opportunity, because, according to the researchers, a solar farm and nature can also reinforce each other. ‘For instance, solar parks often provide favourable conditions for vegetation that is more interesting to animals than farmland. In Solar farm Klarenbeek near Apeldoorn, for example, toad pools and 145 planted trees have been added at the insistence of local residents.’ There is also a risk that projects cannot go ahead because the power grid is too full to connect the solar or wind farm, or because of stricter regulations, e.g. distance rules for wind turbines.

[em2nought]

I earn about $2000 US for every windmill blade my team delivers. We're about to load our 4th since I started at the end of October.