Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

And Turkey still blocks them. Turkey wants arms deliveries from the US thjat got put on halt, Erdoghan also fears that the balance inside NAOT shifts from mor ein Turkey'S and the south'S favoiur tiowards the Northerns Scandivian region. Due to his own humanitarian misdeeds he does not want Scandinavian countries being so influential. This longterm strategic aim could indeed become a major obstacle. Both NATO and the eU should consider to mount some real seriosu pressure instead of buying themselves out. Against Erdoghan works the financial (inflation 70%!) and economical crisis at home that does not allow him to endlessly manouver if the European states threaten and start to accentuate the Turkish crisis. His star is, like Putin's, sinking.

I'm simply wondering if we'll ever get to the position where a choice has to be made between Turkey and the two Scandinavian countries.

As far as I remember no country has ever been thrown out of NATO but the time to choose may be coming.

[Skybird]

FOCUS:

Western sanctions are aimed at isolating Russia politically and weakening it economically so that it can no longer finance this war. As right and important as that is, the plan has a catch.

After nearly three months since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, two things are clear: The Russian leadership has started a war under false assumptions that it cannot win. War and instability in eastern Europe will continue to preoccupy Germany and the EU for some time, even if the intensity of the fighting changes. Just like Vladimir Putin, the West has underestimated Ukraine's defense capabilities and overestimated Russia's military capabilities.

However, we should not now succumb to the assumption that Ukraine can win this war for the foreseeable future and drive Russian troops out of the country. While Russia is running out of soldiers, Ukraine is short of weapons, ammunition, and fuel. In that regard, it is likely that Moscow will order at least partial mobilization in Russian territories bordering Ukraine.

At the same time, Ukraine's defense capability depends on the volume, quality, and speed of Western arms deliveries, the maintenance of transit routes, and the training of Ukrainian soldiers on modern weapons by NATO countries. The decision by U.S.-led Western countries at the meeting at the Rammstein military base in late April to train and supply Ukraine with Western weapons indicates that Washington, too, is bracing for a prolonged war.
Russia's economy will survive - Putin's empire is not North Korea or Iran

This raises the question of how long can Moscow sustain this war? Western sanctions aim to isolate Russia politically and weaken it economically so that it can no longer finance this war. Although a consistent and tough response to Russian aggression against Ukraine and the European security order is important, it will hardly be possible in the short to medium term to persuade Vladimir Putin to give in.

According to the Russian Central Bank, the Russian economy will shrink by ten percent this year and imports will plunge by 40 to 50 percent. Inflation may rise to 30 percent by the end of the year, with negative effects on incomes and private consumption. At the same time, the Russian Central Bank has stabilized the macroeconomic situation and the ruble at almost pre-war levels. Even though many Western companies are leaving the country and the massive sanctions mean that modern technology and important components for Russian production are missing, the Russian economy will survive. Most companies will continue to operate and job losses will be limited.

Russia is not North Korea or Iran, it is not possible to completely isolate and disconnect the country from the world economy due to its importance to global oil, gas and commodity markets. However, the standard of living of Russians will constantly decrease, which will lead to further migration from the country.

Even though the collective West is trying to isolate Russia politically, Moscow remains a member of the UN Security Council, an important player in the negotiations surrounding the Iranian nuclear agreement, in Syria, as well as in parts of Africa. Russia's military dominance in the Black Sea region has massive implications for European security, Turkey, and the Middle East.

China will not support Russia militarily or financially, but Xi and Putin have established long-term cooperation to weaken U.S. influence globally. Both will have an interest in setting their own norms against U.S. dominance, and more than a few countries could support that. India, South Africa and Brazil, like many other states, have not joined Western sanctions and are more likely to take advantage of favorable prices for Russian oil.

As united as the West currently is in responding to Russian aggression, with NATO expanding to include Finland and Sweden in northern Europe, other major states are reacting cautiously to isolate Russia completely. Russia will emerge from this war weakened economically, politically and militarily, but strong enough to create instability in its immediate neighborhood and use this against EU states. Putin will not give up on bringing Ukraine under control, even if his country is weakened in the medium to long term technologically and by a massive exodus of the knowledge elite.

It seems all the more important to move away from a reactive policy, which the German government stands for, and to develop a long-term approach to dealing with a weakened but dangerous Russia. In the long term, Ukraine must be integrated into the EU economically and in terms of energy policy, as well as being put in a position militarily to repel any Russian attack.

If this project fails, with no candidate status declared by the Commission in June, the EU will fail to stabilize its neighborhood. NATO becomes the central core of European security and the ability to deter Russian aggression. In the NATO accession of Sweden and Finland as well as the modernization of the Bundeswehr with a special fund of 100 billion euros lies the opportunity to integrate the European states more strongly in terms of security policy and to better distribute burdens for future defense tasks. At the same time, the now three million Russians who have left their country since the beginning of the year should be better integrated and work should be done systematically with the progressive part on another Russia after Putin.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

Skybird wrote:
"If this project fails, with no candidate status declared by the Commission in June, the EU will fail to stabilize its neighborhood."

This part of your comment made me laugh-Reason

Here June the 1st the Danes is having a referendum In which they has to decide whether they want Denmark to a part of an upcoming EU-Army or not.

Markus

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung on that Russian ex-Colonel's appearance on TV:


Khodaryonok's appearance on the state television talk show is astonishing. Although the host, Olga Skabeeva, attempts to rebut some of his statements, she is unsuccessful. Nor is Khodaryonok shouted down or constantly interrupted, as is usually the case with unruly statements on Russian television. Russia expert Janis Kluge of the German think tank called Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik assumes that Khordaryonok's appearance was approved from above. The station will not have been surprised by his statements. After all, Khordaryonok had already been critical of a possible invasion of Ukraine before the war began.

Khordayonok published an essay three weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in which he predicted the course of the war with astonishing accuracy. He predicted that an invasion of Ukraine could not be successfully completed quickly. He noted that the Ukrainian army had become much more powerful in the last eight years and that Ukrainian soldiers could not be defeated as quickly as in 2014.

Khordayonok also predicted the difficult house-to-house fighting in Ukraine's major cities and predicted very accurately the nature of Western support. For example, he explicitly addressed the U.S. World War II Lend-Lease Act, which allows for rapid arms deliveries to Ukraine. This was passed by Congress in late April. He concludes his essay with a clear statement: "An armed conflict in Ukraine is not in Russia's national interest."
Khordayonok plays the role of skeptical expert

Earlier, Chordajonok also played the role of the skeptical expert on television, dampening enthusiasm for the war. Just before the Russian military parade on May 9, he said that a general mobilization would do little good. Khordayonok pointed out in no uncertain terms that only well-trained soldiers and the latest technology would give Russia an advantage. Moreover, he said, Russia lacks the necessary resources to quickly turn the war in Ukraine in Russia's favor.

Thus, the TV station was aware of Khordayonok's views. It can be assumed that he was invited not in spite of his views, but because of them. Why Russian propaganda is now presenting a more nuanced picture of the Ukraine war to its own population remains unclear. However, it cannot be assumed that Khordayonok's appearance was unplanned.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Jimbuna]

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jeff-Groves

Any bets they will be shot attempting an escape?

So according to Russian news, they are to be put to work rebuilding Mariupol.

Unfortunately I can’t find link again, if I do I’ll post it


In other news from Russia. When I read their news especially when it comes to military equipment, production and deployment. I know for a fact it’s all complete bull crap. I seem to think things like the below article is fantasy world too, because I can’t find other sources to support it.

The State Duma proposed to annex Kherson region according to the Crimean scenario

Deputy Sinelshchikov proposed to annex Kherson region according to the Crimean scenario

https://ria.ru/20220513/kherson-1788282625.html

MOSCOW, May 13 - RIA Novosti. Kherson region could become part of Russia under the Crimean scheme - to hold a referendum on independence and entry into the Russian Federation, after which the Russian parliament would consider this issue - this opinion was expressed by the first deputy head of the State Duma Committee on State Construction and Legislation Yuri Sinelshchikov in an interview with RIA Novosti.

"Everything should be as it was in Crimea - first a referendum on recognition of independence, a referendum on joining Russia (or within the framework of one referendum), then the Russian parliament should resolve this issue, and then the treaty," the parliamentarian believes.

A Russian flag was hoisted over the Kherson City Administration building - RIA Novosti, 1920, 28.04.2022

April 28, 03:08
Kherson region is moving to the ruble zone

According to the politician, it is better to take all these possible steps after the end of hostilities. The expression of will should be objective and independent - "independent of their own emotions - today the people can say one thing, in military conditions, and tomorrow another," he stressed.

Sinelshchikov believes that the referendum should be held, despite the fact that its results may not be recognized abroad. "It's not in the international community, but in the residents of the Kherson region - do they want it themselves or not? And who knows, maybe they don't want it? You need to find out, it's primarily their will. Of course, a referendum is needed, everyone else is auxiliary things," he stated.

Earlier, Speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko said that only the residents of the Kherson region themselves can determine what their future will be like, the Russian Federation will agree with this decision.
Member of the Committee on International Affairs of the Federation Council Sergey Tsekov - RIA Novosti, 1920, 11.05.2022

May 11, 18:33
Tsekov: Kherson region may be admitted to Russia through a survey

In the Kherson region, several proposals were voiced about what the future of the region could be. It was about the possible unification of the Kherson People's Republic, and there were also initiatives to join the Russian Federation.
During a special operation on demilitarization of Ukraine, the Russian military took control of the entire Kherson region in the south of the country and the Azov part of the Zaporozhye region. Military and civil administrations have been formed in the regions, broadcasting of Russian TV channels and radio has begun, and trade ties with Crimea are being restored.

Secretary of the General Council of "United Russia" Andrey Turchak previously said that Russia has come to Kherson region forever, there should be no doubts about it. And the head of the administration of the Kherson region Vladimir Saldo stressed that the region is already an integral part of a large family - the Russian Federation.

Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Building Alexander Bashkin - RIA Novosti, 1920, 11.05.2022
May 11, 14:31

The decision on Kherson region will meet UN standards, said the senator

[Catfish]

^ A russian (!) referendum?

Muahahahahahahah

[August]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

So according to Russian news, they are to be put to work rebuilding Mariupol.

Probably like the German POWs were put to work rebuilding the USSR after WW2. Maybe 1 in 10 ever saw Germany again. The rest reside in shallow graves somewhere in Siberia as I expect many of the Ukrainian POWs will end up.

[Catfish]

Well what a celebration

[Rockstar]

Yep I knew it, all those ‘stans’ smell weakness and are ready for a some individual independence or even form their own cartel and new profitable business ties with China, and Europe.

[Catfish]

^ Kazakhstan has said from day one of the russian invasion that it will not support Russia's war.

Originally Posted by August

Probably like the German POWs were put to work rebuilding the USSR after WW2. Maybe 1 in 10 ever saw Germany again. The rest reside in shallow graves somewhere in Siberia as I expect many of the Ukrainian POWs will end up.

It is a shame. Even if the war would end soon (what i doubt) they will never get back. Maybe it will not matter in 30 years since people forget quickly, but for the current russian generation there should not be any international recognition, or trade treaties, only contempt.

[Skybird]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61496428

Look at the face of that boy and tell me he is a monster. He isn't. He just happened to have lost the birth lottery, and then needing to live in the wrong time, in the wrong place, until circumstances caught him up.

One more reason to dispise fascist Russia. For wehat they do to foreign people in Ukriane. And to their own sons. 21 years, and a life sentence. Sh!t. He should be held accoutnable, but oen shoudl nto forget what pep,e these Russian young soldiers are. They mostly come fro m small villages, have seen nothgun oif the world, low self.esteem, poor family backgrpoudn, and the army treated them like sh1t and god knows wehat to break their human integrity. In a way he is as much a victim as the man he has shot.

This is not meant to argue that one should fight less determined against the Russians. Hell, no! Certainly not. But there are the scumbags who enjoy what they do or who already have turned into animals themselves, and then there are the ones like this one. I simply cannot imagine he laughed after he shot the man.

And I know how small I still felt when I was 21. It was a fight to gain the self-assurance I later claimed my own. My sometimes risky travellings where a way to break out of my self-perceived tininess, so to speak. Crash course in self-confidence. It could have gone wrong on a few occasions. I was lucky.

This boy was not. Putin consumed him, like so many others. Soul-eating man-ruining old bastard. Why cant he just drop dead instead of destroying everythign and everyone he touches.

[mapuc]

Would love to be a moskito on the wall when they had this meeting.

What was it Putin wanted from the others ?

Was it support for the war in Ukraine ?
For something he has planned for the future ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Well what a celebration

Spectre?

[Aktungbby]

actually there have been several prisoner swaps, usually on a one 4 one basis. I'd expect this to continue. A swap for the steel plant surrender Ukrainian soldiers has been proposed. Now that there is a conviction in a war crimes trial, 'twill be interesting to see a change in Russian modus operendi... which has include heist of the Mariapol museum's ancient Slavic gold looted and card off to Crimea. This is what Nazi's did in WWII. My guess is Putin is terminally ill and has unleashed his heinous war in anticipation(like Milosĕvic of Serbia) of not surviving to face a war crimes tribunal...