Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Would they have a better chance against the Polish army, than they had against the Ukrainian army ?

I say no way it would be a suicide mission.

And it would give Poland an excuse to enter the war on Ukraine side.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It's not solely about Poland but NATO as a cohesive entity....minus one or perhaps two members.

[mapuc]

I guess almost everyone think that Article 5 automatically is activated when a NATO member is attacked by another non-member of NATO.

This is not the case.

The Polish Government has to send info to NATO headquarters and tell them that they wish to activate article 5.

Then it's up to each member to decide with what and how much they can contribute with.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Hence the reason I wrote "minus one or perhaps two members".

[mapuc]

We are inching to the final decision that Germany delivers the TAURUS missile. According to this article the German Air Force (Luftwaffe) already green-lighted the transfer.

The SPD-led Chancellery is increasingly under pressure to finally approve the delivery. The CDU/CSU opposition parties already urge since months to follow through and even some SPD members agree. But this might have also some good side effects since Berlin wants to have a joint announcement with the USA where Taurus and ATACMS are delivered together. The Biden administration responds as similar to the ATACMS request as Scholz to the TAURUS.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1689623755595853824

Now I'm thinking about all the stories Skybird have been telling us about Germany and it's bureaucracy.

In this case it could take month before they get these weapon type from Germany.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Exocet25fr]

Wow, after these innumerable videos, i'm very astonished the war is not already finished with an ukrainian victory.....!?

[mapuc]

In this moment the Ukrainian army has the momentum on most of the battlefield.

Russia hasn't the effort to win this war. They are not good enough and their material is old.

Ukraine does not have enough material and lack manpower.

This war will go on for years to come.

I think the west will put pressure on Ukraine to accept the Russian term for a peace treaty. This will happen in a couple of years from now.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

It would probably be a whole lot longer awaiting a French victory

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

In this moment the Ukrainian army has the momentum on most of the battlefield.

Russia hasn't the effort to win this war. They are not good enough and their material is old.

Ukraine does not have enough material and lack manpower.

This war will go on for years to come.

I think the west will put pressure on Ukraine to accept the Russian term for a peace treaty. This will happen in a couple of years from now.

Markus

I don’t know, I think it’s is more of an economic and logistics war than it is about ground battles and territory too. If Russia can’t effectively train and supply their troops, can’t rebuild or manufacture to support their military and civilian infrastructure at home or in the occupied territory. I’m thinking Russia can only go on for so long before their society and military machine completely breaks down.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I don’t know, I think it’s more of an economic and logistics war than it is about ground battles and territory. If Russia can’t supply their troops, can’t rebuild or manufacture to support their military and civilian infrastructure. I’m thinking Russia can only go on for so long before their society and military machine breaks down completely.

The same Statement applies to Ukraine, and the war destroys Ukrainian infrastructure, not so much Russian. And Russia can, if it must, call millions to arms, Ukraine cannot. Finally, the essential areas of civilian and military society, Russia is autark in. They have food, ore, oil, what they must is making a Lil bit of money. Old weapons may be old, but they nevertheless make Booom.
Ukraine on the other hand cannot carry on without massive supplies from the West.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I don’t know, I think it’s is more of an economic and logistics war than it is about ground battles and territory too. If Russia can’t effectively train and supply their troops, can’t rebuild or manufacture to support their military and civilian infrastructure at home or in the occupied territory. I’m thinking Russia can only go on for so long before their society and military machine completely breaks down.

In every war there's also an extra war-War on the logistic. Where you have to protect your own resources and at the same time destroy your enemies logistic and thereby his war economy.

Are the Russian quick learner ? Meaning they send coming soldiers to a 10 weeks training center before they are shipped to the front.

A majority of their reservist hasn't been using a gun for years.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The same Statement applies to Ukraine, and the war destroys Ukrainian infrastructure, not so much Russian. And Russia can, if it must, call millions to arms, Ukraine cannot. Finally, the essential areas of civilian and military society, Russia is autark in. They have food, ore, oil, what they must is making a Lil bit of money. Old weapons may be old, but they nevertheless make Booom.
Ukraine on the other hand cannot carry on without massive supplies from the West.

No doubt it applies to Ukraine as well. But Ukraine has massive economic support from the west. I don’t think Ukraine’s celebrated counter offensive was really meant to overrun Russian positions, though I’m sure they tried and would have liked too. In my opinion we keep Ukraine’s military trained and equipped to wear down the Russia military in the form of death by a thousand cuts rather than one big wack. Western sanctions are having the same effect and as we speak they are having devastating effects on the Russian economy, society and war machine. Personally, I don’t think we’ll ever see a Russian million man mobilization, they can’t support it. They’ll just end up with a million man armed mob of angry unpaid, unsupported, ill treated soldiers looking for some payback.

It’s been reported even the Russian minister of propaganda Solovyov has seen his portfolio drop 93% in value since Russia invaded Ukraine and he’s mad as hell about it too.

[mapuc]

The time is on the Russian side-Someone wrote

Could be the case.

The biggest question is-Will NATO approve a Russian victory ?

I say no in the end they will force Ukraine to accept some land loses in order to get a peace treaty.

NATO troops in Ukraine !? No! Then rather give up Ukraine.

As long the Ukrainian does the by proxy fighting everything is alright

Markus

[Skybird]

Western supply will not last forever, no matter what they say. You wrote "the war now found Russia", well, next year the US election circus will find Ukraine. It could easily wreak worse havoc on Ukraine.