Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Germany's progress so far on energy divestment from Russia

Coal:
Pre-war: 45%
Now: 8%

Oil:
Pre-war: 35%
Now: 12%

Gas:
Pre-war: 55%
Now: 35%

[mapuc]

From liveuamap

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a speech in Düsseldorf that Germany will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons.

Markus

[mapuc]

Can't help wondering who is attacking Russia inside their country near the Ukrainian border.

Following is from liveuamap

10 hours ago - 50°40′N 36°13′E
Governor of Belgorod region confirms fire and explosions at military arsenal near Tomarovka village

11 hours ago - 50°41′N 36°17′E
Explosions at military arsenal in Tomarovka of Belgorod region

9 hours ago - 51°10′N 35°23′E
Railway bridge collapsed between Sudzha and Sosnovy Bor in Kursk region of Russia. Governor blames saboteurs

41 minutes ago - 51°34′N 34°41′E
Explosions in Rylsk area of Kursk region, air defense is active


Is it Russian who is doing it ? Sabotage
Or
Is it Ukrainian special forces ?

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Rapists, murderers, and tractor thieves... https://www.cbs58.com/news/russians-...otely-disabled

(CNN) -- Russian troops in the occupied city of Melitopol have stolen all the equipment from a farm equipment dealership -- and shipped it to Chechnya, according to a Ukrainian businessman in the area.
But after a journey of more than 700 miles, the thieves were unable to use any of the equipment -- because it had been locked remotely.
Over the past few weeks there's been a growing number of reports of Russian troops stealing farm equipment, grain and even building materials - beyond widespread looting of residences. But the removal of valuable agricultural equipment from a John Deere dealership in Melitopol speaks to an increasingly organized operation, one that even uses Russian military transport as part of the heist.
CNN has learned that the equipment was removed from an Agrotek dealership in Melitopol, which has been occupied by Russian forces since early March. Altogether it's valued at nearly $5 million. The combine harvesters alone are worth $300,000 each.

[Jeff-Groves]

You'd think Someone over there is smart/equipped enough to unlock them.

[Aktungbby]

they'd probably get a "Deere John" response!!??

[Jimbuna]

EU remains unable to agree on ending supplies of Russian gas, Germany's economy minister says.

Ministers are due to have emergency talks, but Hungary has made it clear it will block consensus.

Revenues from the supplies - millions of euros a day - are used to fund Russia's war in Ukraine.

Some 100 people evacuated from a besieged steel plant in the southern city of Mariupol are due to arrive in Ukraine-held areas.

Hundreds more civilians remain trapped there and President Zelensky has said he hopes further evacuations can take place.

The evacuees, who had been sheltering there with fighters for weeks.

One evacuee from the plant describes her fear and says she has not seen sunlight for two months.

A BBC correspondent in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, where Russia is focusing its offensive, says Moscow's troops are advancing slowly.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

A lot of talk is done on the Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PZH2000). This video illustrates it a bit and reflects on what speaks for and against sending it to Ukraine - and what delivery even is possible.






I wonder about the time of non-self-propelled artillery pieces to start escaping counter battery fire after they fired their last shot. Are they even meant to do so?

Russia is an extremely artillery-focussed army and has plenty of it, but I do not know how good they are at sensors and communication hierarchies for directing counter battery fire...?!

[Catfish]

You had the Gepard for defending that. Too bad ..

[Commander Wallace]

Russia is basically running on it's stocks and will soon run out. In addition to the farm dealership thefts, many companies have also left. This includes the McDonalds hamburger chain.



I think this goes a long way toward establishing a " no fry " zone.

[Buddahaid]

Originally Posted by Commander Wallace

Russia is basically running on it's stocks and will soon run out. In addition to the farm dealership thefts, many companies have also left. This includes the McDonalds hamburger chain.



I think this goes a long way toward establishing a " no fry " zone.

They did run out of happy meals.

[Reece]

Originally Posted by Commander Wallace

I think this goes a long way toward establishing a " no fry " zone.

Hardy ha ha!!

[Skybird]

International media report Finland will ask NATO on May 12th to join.


On a EU summit, especially Hungary and Germany block a decision to boycott Russian gas. On oil, Germany has moved and now demands an oil boycott, but as I believe not before the end of the year (or did I got this wrong?). Hungary wants not gasoil boycott either.


Neherlands, Italy are assumed to mull the sending of PZH-2000s. A few of them. Germany is reported to "check" whether it can afford to give away any. Only one third of the complete aresenal are operational, and Germany argued that it needs to keep these to fulfill its duties in active NATO roles.



Meanwhile, again, what some call the "inferno theory": FOCUS writes:


On May 9, a large military parade will be held in Moscow to commemorate the victory in the Great Patriotic War over Nazi Germany. This form of remembrance is part of Russia's collective identity and its military manifestation should help to reflect it again and again.

This year, at the same time, this day is associated with high expectations. President Putin will address the situation in the country and the progress of the "special military operation", i.e. the war of aggression on Ukraine. True, Foreign Minister Lavrov has decoupled the two events, saying May 9 has nothing to do with the progress of "events in Ukraine," but that they depend "on the need to minimize risks to civilians and Russian soldiers," as Russia's brutal ruthlessness is dressed up in diplomatic cynicism. But this will not dampen the different expectations for May 9.
Putin will have something to show on May 9 - the big question is: What exactly will that be?

After the revision of Russia's military approach, when troops were withdrawn around Kiev to reinforce the advance in eastern Ukraine, it was assumed this might also be related to President Putin announcing the "liberation" of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics on May 9 - as a badge of Russia's victory in the "special military operation." The capture of Mariupol and Kherson, as well as the establishment of new pseudo-states, would also be successes that could be celebrated as victories.

In the meantime, however, it is foreseeable that the Russian advance is progressing too slowly and is being repulsed too frequently to proclaim this as a certain fact. As a fake fact, it would succeed, but with some risks: What if alternative sources reveal different information? Or if the Russian front is later pushed back further and the territories cannot be held?

Political misrepresentations require a high degree of planning-safe expectation management. That an agreement will be signed in a week between Ukraine and Russia that establishes these breakaways is impossible. That Russia will not only be able to conquer the territories in a short period of time, but also to hold and govern them, is not very likely and would entail very high costs. These could be justified in Moscow, because it is a further step towards the complete unification of all "Russians" - by which at least Russia, Belarus and Ukraine are understood. But not until next week.
Rehearsal for Russia's Victory Day military parade.
Uncredited/AP/dpa A Russian tank artillery and military vehicles drive toward Red Square during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade.

Given the insufficient results of military action from the Russian point of view and the escalation of threatening gestures from the Russian leadership, another assumption gained some plausibility. It is that on May 9 the mobilization in the war will be announced, that is, not a victory, but the escalation of the special military operation to war. It says that the Russian military should push in this direction because more soldiers are urgently needed. The talk of "proxy war" with NATO was intended to get the Russian population in the mood for this expansion.

This assumption gained political weight because it is considered likely by the British Defense Minister Wallace. Russia's repeatedly renewed threats to use nuclear weapons also point in this direction of significantly escalating the military campaign. The obviously desolate state of the Russian armed forces can serve as a reason for escalation as well as its opposite. "A Russian army that prevails in a war of attrition by sheer firepower and mass would still be a far cry from the nimble, high-tech force that has been advertised over the past decade," judged the Economist.

Already in early April, the Tass news agency had reported that - unlike in previous years - no foreign state guests would be invited to this year's parade. This may be related to the vagaries of war or to the planning for that day. But the eyes of all governments will be on Moscow that day.

The federal government must prepare for all three contingencies:

First, that no more far-reaching decisions will be announced on May 9;
second, that the liberation of the existing and establishment of new "people's republics" will be announced as a result of the military operation;
third, that Russia escalates the war with mobilization.


In the first case, uncertainty about Russia's medium-term intentions would persist. In the second case, the question would arise as to whether this could be chosen by Ukraine as the starting point for a cease-fire or other agreement or - as has been increasingly formulated of late - an attempt would be made to push Russian forces back militarily from this area.

In the third case, fighting in Ukraine, while not immediate, would foreseeably increase significantly. Russia would have to deploy a large number of reservists who could compensate for the considerable losses of killed and wounded. The extent of their combat effectiveness and the repercussions this could have in Russian society would have to be observed.

To legitimize the escalation, it has been argued more frequently in recent weeks that Ukraine is backed by the U.S. and NATO, that Ukraine is not acting of its own volition at all, and that Russia is therefore in a conflict with NATO. This argument was strengthened by the reference to the "economic war" of the "unfriendly states". So much for Russian propaganda.

Whether this also corresponds to Russian assessments of the real war situation cannot be said with certainty. A war against NATO, which Russia would have to start because the NATO states will certainly not do so, would change the overall situation. It is doubtful whether this - even if one puts on the Russian glasses to assess the situation - can be seen as an advantage by the Russian leadership.

Only one argument could lend weight to this: NATO will not be as weak as it currently is in Europe for a long time. Whether it is weak enough in the eyes of Russian decision-makers to dare a military conflict seems very doubtful. However, the current war was launched under overly optimistic assumptions about the weakness of the enemy and its own strength.

For the NATO states, it follows that they must continuously - and in some places with the same pressure with which the geopolitical energy transition is being pushed through - build up their own strength. Russia's goodwill toward a peaceful solution is only recognizable to those who place their hopes above an analysis of the situation. This, however, is not a realistic approach.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


I see escalation as the most likely scenario.

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Buddahaid

They did run out of happy meals.

Attacking “ Ronald McDonald “ and his fries and “ happy meals “ is just the worst. Of course, I only eat McDonald fries and their food when I feel my cholesterol levels dipping dangerously low. I'm sure others feel the same way.

Originally Posted by Reece

Hardy ha ha!!

Well, it is a no " fries " zone.





* Disclaimer * This is not not to make light of the ugly situation in the Ukraine.