2016 US Presidential election thread

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Oberon

But wait, there's more!

The FBI is reopening their investigation into Hillarys emails!

So, President Kaine?

Like all of the other investigations in Hillary over the past 30 years nothing will become of it. That is a guarantee. Waste of time and resources.

[Gray Lensman]

I see this as just a ploy for Comey to cover his a$$ in case Trump is elected. Personally, I think he should be thrown out of his job for failure to apply the law equally. You can't have generals, private citizens like Martha Stewart, etc. all thrown into the slammer for lying to the FBI during investigations and then allow someone else to slide just because of political connections. I'd say the same thing if it were the other way around and it was Trump who lied to the FBI.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Gray Lensman

I see this as just a ploy for Comey to cover his a$$ in case Trump is elected. Personally, I think he should be thrown out of his job for failure to apply the law equally. You can't have generals, private citizens like Martha Stewart, etc. all thrown into the slammer for lying to the FBI during investigations and then allow someone else to slide just because of political connections. I'd say the same thing if it were the other way around and it was Trump who lied to the FBI.

I agree, Comey is covering his rear. I also agree Comey should be removed from his position. Also note that Comey said he does not know who long it will take to investigate these new emails. I'M GUESSING 4 YEARS.

It is very bad when the likes of Stewart and others do time. Hillary gets off because of runway deals perpetrated by Bill and other back door dealings.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Another thing I do not really trust those polls which our TV-Channel are showing us.

At their very best, a poll is but an approximation of what the represented population may do. There are a lot of assumptions that get put into a poll and some of those assumptions may even be valid.

That is why I shake my head ruefully (which I seem to do more often these days) when poll results are reported with decimal places. Yes, mathematically the results can be represented as decimals, but that is, in my opinion, false precision.

When I look at a poll, I only look at the first number and any value +1 or -1 (representing 10% of the entire scale) is, to me even.

If one candidate is polling at 40% and the other at 49%, to me they are polling the same. well withing the sampling and other errors. Polls will often report their sampling error but there are more errors and variance than just sampling error. Naturally, a polling organization does not want to publish all of their systematic errors. .

So Until I see a difference in two in the significant digit 70% vs 50%, to me anything closer is just the same. .

But, as I posted earlier, the polls are based on how people choose to answer. How they choose to answer a person may be different from how they vote in a private voting booth. Assuming that a person will answer truthfully is one of the biggest assumptions in polling. We may want to think that everyone is truthful in answering polls, but the reality may or may not be different.

That's why I consider polls only a very general approximation. Better than nothing, but not by much. There is only one poll that really matters and that is the poll taken between 8 Nov and 12 Dec 16.

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Platapus

At their very best, a poll is but an approximation of what the represented population may do. There are a lot of assumptions that get put into a poll and some of those assumptions may even be valid.

That is why I shake my head ruefully (which I seem to do more often these days) when poll results are reported with decimal places. Yes, mathematically the results can be represented as decimals, but that is, in my opinion, false precision.

When I look at a poll, I only look at the first number and any value +1 or -1 (representing 10% of the entire scale) is, to me even.

If one candidate is polling at 40% and the other at 49%, to me they are polling the same. well withing the sampling and other errors. Polls will often report their sampling error but there are more errors and variance than just sampling error. Naturally, a polling organization does not want to publish all of their systematic errors. .

So Until I see a difference in two in the significant digit 70% vs 50%, to me anything closer is just the same. .

But, as I posted earlier, the polls are based on how people choose to answer. How they choose to answer a person may be different from how they vote in a private voting booth. Assuming that a person will answer truthfully is one of the biggest assumptions in polling. We may want to think that everyone is truthful in answering polls, but the reality may or may not be different.

That's why I consider polls only a very general approximation. Better than nothing, but not by much. There is only one poll that really matters and that is the poll taken between 8 Nov and 12 Dec 16.

Personally I think polls for campaigns such as this one should not be allowed. It is just another tool to sway voters and is used as such.

[Platapus]

A lot of people in other countries and a lot in this country are not aware of how and when our president is elected. It is a process that takes about two months. Here are the 2016 dates and what happens

8 November - Erroneously called election day. It is just one day out of many where ballots are collected. It should be called "First day the ballots are counted" but that does not have the same impact as election day.

The media may "report" the "results" on the evening of 8 Nov, but what they are reporting is only when most of the votes are counted. On 9 Nov, provisional and absentee ballots counts are started. I can not speak for other states, but in Virginia every ballot is counted for every election. I hope it is the same for other states.

The counting, recounting, checking and rechecking can take quite some time. On 13 December, each state must any final rules or changes on how to count ballots approved by this date. This is to prevent a state from changing the rules at the last moment.

By the way, this date in December was what the confusion was concerning the 2000 election. Florida was unable to finalize their rules for conducting the second recount by this "Safe Harbor" (as the federal provision is often called). That was why the SCotUS halted the second recount and why the first recount results were certified.

The problem in 2000 was that Florida did not have one uniform method of conducting recounts across the state. Each county had their own method, which should not have been allowed. Humans are imperfect and the systems designed by humans are imperfect.

The 13th of December is when each state must finalize and publish their respective Certificates of Ascertainment which documents who the electors are and how they were selected.

19 December -- The electors travel to the state capital to formally cast their votes. Legally all electors can travel to the capital, but traditionally only the winning electors need to travel as they are the ones casting their votes. Maine and Nebraska are the exceptions as those are the only states that have proportional voting in the electoral college. All the other states and DC have a winner take all schema.

28 December. The states (and DC) have until 28 December to deliver various copies of the results of the electoral vote to the Senate. Some copies are retained by the respective state and other copies are retained by the Federal government in the Archives.

Between 28 Dec and 3 Jan 17, the Archivist and the Secretary of the Senate meet to verify that all the materials have been properly sent/received/logged/stored.

6 Jan 17, The Senate and the House members all crowd into the House of Representatives chambers (and it does get crowded). Vice President Biden (as the President of the Senate) counts all 53 electoral packages and calls out each state's results. If there is disagreement between what happened in the state and what is reported in the congressional counting, they will break open one of the multiple packages and even get the official vote statement from the state to verify. This has never happened.

53 ballots? Yes

50 From the states
1 from DC
2 from both Maine and Nebraska as part of their proportional elector ballot.

Then we all wait for that great day on 20 Jan 17 when we celebrate having another person to blame for our problems!!

So that's our wacky way of electing a president. An awkward system but one that works pretty well for the past 200+ years.

If anyone has any questions, please post them. The more that people understand the details of our political system, the better.

[Skybird]

Did I say some time ago that Clinton must not win anymore, but must only avoid to defeat herself? I wonder whether new Emailageddon indicates another swing in trend after Trump's Grabbageddon seemed to have buried him...

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Personally I think polls for campaigns such as this one should not be allowed. It is just another tool to sway voters and is used as such.

Unfortunately, political expression is one of our civil rights. It would be difficult for the government to restrict polls or the publication of polls, regardless of their accuracy or representation.

A better solution is to educate the citizens on how to ignore polls.

[STEED]

Clinton in a chain gang breaking rocks..

Nah never happen.

[mapuc]

If the FBI don't find anything or it's not enough to get her convicted.

Will you be satisfied with this or are you 110 % she's guilty, whatever conclusion the FBI may end with ?

Markus

[Oberon]

Of course no-one is going to be satisfied! Not until she's behind bars, guilty or not.

[STEED]

She's too rich and powerful to go to prison anyway.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Of course no-one is going to be satisfied! Not until she's behind bars, guilty or not.

But then those who support will not be satisfied

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Of course no-one is going to be satisfied! Not until she's behind bars, guilty or not.

You say "or not" like that is a real possibility. Her own admissions would have put just about anyone else in jail already.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

But then those who support will not be satisfied

Markus

It's the American election Markus, no-one is going to be satisfied.

Except the media I guess, they'll be raking it in.