Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

(Not to spam this thread)

Dargo once wrote:
It's beyond me that people actually think Russia are going to win this war.

Let us chew on the word "Win"

The word "Win" could mean a lot.

If we are talking about conquer entire Ukraine, then I would say NO
If we are talking about conquer parts of Ukraine, then I would say YES.

Markus

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The word "Win" could mean a lot.

If we are talking about conquer entire Ukraine, then I would say NO
If we are talking about conquer parts of Ukraine, then I would say YES.

You missed the third option. Russia stays where it is and bombs the sh!+ out of Ukraine (industry, power, infrastructure,traffic and supply grids, housing) until no stone is left unturned.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

You missed the third option. Russia stays where it is and bombs the sh!+ out of Ukraine (industry, power, infrastructure,traffic and supply grids, housing) until no stone is left unturned.

Thank you. This option never crossed my mind.

Would this mean Russia will win ? I say Yes

However Ukraine could do a Croatia-thing.

They surrende to Serbia, but in secret they build up their army and then they attacked and toke back lost land from Serbia.

Markus

[Skybird]

Could they? Easier said than done with your industry and powergrid in smoking ruins and your financial sovereignty being non-existing.

There are estimations that the costs for rebuilding Ukraine minus the 20% lost territory, if the Russian destruction would end now (why would it?), would cost minimum halve a trillion US dollars in the coming years alone. And that is an optimistic scenario. There are calculations increasing this sum by severla factors.

Rearmament and such luxury features are not included in that.


Washington expects Europe to bear the very most of this sum. Go figure.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Could they? Easier said than done with your industry and powergrid in smoking ruins and your financial sovereignty being non-existing.

Oh man never gave that a thought.

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Thank you. This option never crossed my mind.

Would this mean Russia will win ? I say Yes

However Ukraine could do a Croatia-thing.

They surrende to Serbia, but in secret they build up their army and then they attacked and toke back lost land from Serbia.

Markus

I think if Russia defeats Ukraine they will try to purge the Ukrainians of anyone and everyone who could organize such an army. There will be wide scale mass arrests and executions. The road to the Gulags will be heavily traveled and few will ever return. Just ask the Germans what happens when the Russians "win".

Serbia didn't absorb Croatia but I think Russia would certainly annex the rest of a defeated Ukraine.

[ET2SN]

Just a reminder, you don't nuke an enemy when you share a common border.

[Jimbuna]

Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of May 2

In Ukraine, there were 106 engagements on the front line over the past day, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russian attacks

In total, the enemy launched 2 missile and 58 air strikes, carried out 89 attacks from multiple launch rocket systems at the positions of Ukrainian troops and settlements.

Frontline situation

In the Volyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation remains unchanged. No signs of enemy offensive groups were detected.

In the Siversk and Slobozhanske directions, the enemy maintains a military presence in the border areas, conducts sabotage and reconnaissance activities, shells settlements from the territory of the Russian Federation, and increases the density of minefields along the state border of Ukraine. It conducted air strikes near the settlements of Krasny Khutir in the Chernihiv region; Seredyna-Buda in the Sumy region; Dergachi, Lyptsi, and Rublene in the Kharkiv region. More than 20 settlements came under enemy artillery and mortar fire, including Bleshnia in Chernihiv region; Yastrubyne, Oleksandrivka, Volfyne, Vodolahy, Velyka Pysarivka and Stepok in Sumy region.
In the Kupiansk direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 9 attacks in the vicinity of Synkivka, Novoiehorivka, Kyslivka, Berestove in the Kharkiv region; Stelmakhivka in the Luhansk region. About 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Kotliarivka in Kharkiv region.

In the Lyman direction, Defense forces repelled 12 attacks in the areas of Hrekivka, Nevske, and Serebrianske forestry in the Luhansk region; Terny, Yampolivka, Torske in the Donetsk region. Artillery and mortar shelling damaged more than 10 settlements, including Makiivka in Luhansk region; Terny and Torske in Donetsk region.

In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 19 attacks near the towns of Bilohorivka in Luhansk region; Verkhnekamianske, Rozdolivka, Vyimka, Spirne, Novyi, Klishchiivka and Ivanivske in Donetsk region, where the enemy, with the support of aviation, tried to improve the tactical situation. The enemy also conducted an air strike near Druzhba, Donetsk region. More than 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Hryhorivka, Kalynivka, and Klishchiivka in the Donetsk region.

In the Avdiivka direction, Ukrainian troops repelled 31 attacks in the vicinity of Arkhanhelske, Sokil, Semenivka, Umanske, Kalynove, Yasnobrodivka, Netailove, and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk region, where the enemy tried to force Ukrainian troops out of their positions. The enemy also launched air strikes near the settlements of Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, and Novoselivka Persha in the Donetsk region. About 20 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Arkhanhelske, Novopokrovske, and Sokil in the Donetsk region.

In the Novopavlivka direction, Defense forces continue to hold back the enemy near Kostiantynivka and Urozhaine in the Donetsk region, where the enemy, supported by aviation, tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian troops 13 times. The enemy launched air strikes near the settlement of Vodiane, Donetsk region. More than 10 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, and Vuhledar in the Donetsk region.

In the Orikhiv direction, the enemy made 1 attack on the positions of Ukrainian defenders near Robotyno, Zaporizhzhia region. It carried out air strikes near the settlements of Vremivka and Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region; Piatykhatky in the Zaporizhzhia region. About 15 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Bilohiria, Robotyne, and Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia region.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy is not abandoning its intention to dislodge our units from bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. During the day, it made 3 unsuccessful attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops in the vicinity of Krynky, Kherson region. About 20 settlements came under artillery and mortar fire, including Chervonyi Maiak, Olhivka, Tiahynka, Ivanivka, Tokarivka, Novotiahynka, Kizomys in Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

Enemy losses

During the day, the aviation of the Defense Forces struck 9 areas of concentration of personnel and 1 enemy anti-aircraft missile system.

Missile troops destroyed 2 ammunition depots, 1 artillery system and 1 enemy anti-aircraft missile system.

The situation at the front

As of the morning of May 2, enemy losses amounted to 470,870 soldiers. Over the last day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminated 1,030 Russian soldiers.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...c66cdba4&ei=12

[Jimbuna]

Russia using chemical choking agents in Ukraine, US says

The US has accused Russia of deploying chemical weapons as a "method of warfare" in Ukraine, in violation of international laws banning their use.

State department officials said Russia used the choking agent chloropicrin to win "battlefield gains" over Ukraine.

The allegations, which US officials said were not an "isolated" incident, would contravene the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which Russia signed.

The Kremlin rejected the accusations, calling them "baseless".

Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow that Russia stood by its obligations under the CWC, which prohibits states from developing or acquiring new weapons. Some 193 states have ratified the convention.

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), a global watchdog that oversees implementation of the CWC, says a chemical weapon is a substance used to cause intentional death or harm through its toxic properties.

Chloropicrin - which the US says Russia has used to "dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions" - is an oily substance which was widely used during World War One. It causes irritation of the lungs, eyes and skin and can cause vomiting, nausea and diarrhoea, according to the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC).

The chemical's use in war is expressly banned under the CWC, and is listed as a choking agent by the OPCW.

The state department also said Moscow had regularly used "riot control agents," or tear gas, during the war.

President Joe Biden has previously warned Russia against deploying chemical weapons in Ukraine. In March 2022, weeks after Moscow launched its invasion, Mr Biden vowed that President Vladimir Putin would pay a "severe price" if he did authorise the use of chemical weapons.

"We would respond if he uses it. The nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use," Mr Biden said.

But there have been consistent reports that Moscow has ignored that warning. US Assistant Secretary for Arms Control Mallory Stewart has previously said Russia was using riot control agents in the conflict.

And Ukraine says its troops have faced mounting chemical attacks in recent months. The Reuters news agency reported earlier this year that Russian forces had used grenades loaded with CS and CN tear gases.

The report added that at least 500 Ukrainian soldiers have been treated for exposure to toxic gases, and that one had died after suffocating on tear gas.

Three Russian bodies linked to the country's biological and chemical weapons programme were sanctioned by the state department for their links to the production of chemical agents. Other firms that contributed to the government entities were also sanctioned.

In 2017, the OPCW said Russia had destroyed the last of its Cold War-era stockpile of the weapons, as required under the CWC.

But Moscow has since been accused of making incomplete declarations of its stockpile, according to the UK's House of Commons library.

Since 2017, Russia has been accused of at least two chemical attacks - the Salisbury attack on a former Soviet intelligence officer and the 2020 poisoning of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

The allegations come as part of a broader tranche of US sanctions which targeted 30 individuals, including three people officials say were involved in Navalny's death.

The men are all officials at the Siberian prison colony where the opposition activist died earlier this year. Russia denies involvement in the opposition leader's death. Navalny's widow has accused President Putin of killing him.

Meanwhile, Russian forces in eastern Ukraine have continued their steady advance ahead of Victory Day celebrations on 9 May - the holiday commemorating Soviet victory in World War Two.

Much of the fighting has been taking place around Chasiv Yar, a Kyiv-controlled stronghold which Russia has been trying to reach after seizing the city of Avdiivka. It is thought Moscow wants to seize the town ahead of next week's celebrations.

It comes as President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the head of Ukraine's Security Service's (SBU) cyber-security department, Illya Vityuk, amid allegations that he tried to use his position to punish a Ukrainian journalist who had reported on allegations of corruption against him.

The reporter was subsequently summoned to a military recruitment centre, prompting military chief Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi to launch an investigation.

Elsewhere, Human Rights Watch - a non-governmental organisation - has called for a war crimes investigation after it unearthed evidence that Russian forces executed over a dozen surrendering Ukrainian troops. The events allegedly occurred between December 2023 and February 2024, the body said in a statement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68941220

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia pays record 25% of budget for Putin's paranoia - US intelligence

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's paranoid fear of alleged Western attempts to limit Russia's power has led to the spending of about 25% of the Russian state budget on militarization, according to Director of National Intelligence Avril Gaines.

These estimates were made during a hearing in the US Congress on May 2.

Gaines said that NATO's efforts were aimed at assuring the opposite - that the West does not threaten Russia, but Putin himself accelerated events he was trying to avoid by his own decisions. We are talking about the accession of neighboring Finland and Sweden to NATO.

The intelligence chief is convinced that Putin continues to believe that there is a threat to Russia and believes that increased militarization will convey this message to Western and domestic audiences.
Senator Angus King asked how Putin can be convinced that NATO is not an aggressive bloc and is not going to invade Russia. According to the senator, Russian intelligence services are inherently a paranoid organization.

“Yes, I agree with you that there is some paranoia involved, he (Putin - ed.) does believe that the security of his country is in some way threatened,” Gaines replied.

The Russian dictator's strategic goals, according to her, also remain unchanged - he continues to see NATO expansion and support for Ukraine as confirmation of his belief that the United States and Europe want to limit Russia's power.

In addition, Gaines said that Putin is trying to use global events, such as the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas, to "divide us from our allies".

Putin is now convinced that domestic and international events are developing in his favor, the head of the National Intelligence Service said. She predicts that Moscow's aggressive tactics will continue, and the war is unlikely to end anytime soon.

The dictator is ready to spend more and more budget funds on its continuation. “Putin has increased defense spending to nearly 7% of Russia's GDP, almost double the historical average,” Gaines said, adding that the Russian defense budget now accounts for about 25% of all federal spending.

Threats to other Russia's neighbors

In Moldova, the authorities are convinced that the Kremlin will try to undermine the country's rapprochement with the European Union.

According to British intelligence, Russia is planning to target Moldova with a wave of so-called hybrid attacks before the presidential election and the referendum on EU accession.

Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, believes that if Ukraine's neighbors do not find a way to further increase defense production to help Kyiv, they will also eventually be in Russia's crosshairs. He is convinced that the Russians will take over the Baltic states in seven days. At the same time, Skibitskyi said that NATO's reaction time is ten days.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...6606b8d7&ei=22

[Skybird]

[Frankfurter Rundschau] The USA has bought 81 Soviet-designed fighter planes and bombers at auction. This was reported by the Ukrainian daily newspaper Kyiv Post. The seller is Kazakhstan. For several years, the country has been gradually replacing its outdated fleet with more modern aircraft, relying on both Russian and Western manufacturers.

As part of this process, it was announced last October that a further large batch, 117 aircraft in total, are to be sold. These include MiG-31 interceptors, MiG-27 fighter-bombers, MiG-29 fighters and Su-24 bombers from the 1970s and 1980s. The estimated purchase price was one billion tenge, the equivalent of around 2.1 million euros.

The Kazakh side pointed out in the offer that the aircraft were in an unserviceable condition and that their modernization was considered economically impractical. Their usefulness as a source of spare parts was limited. Nevertheless, the USA is said to have acquired 81 of these aircraft via offshore companies. This is according to the Russian news site reporter.ru and the Ukrainian Telegram channel Insider UA. The aircraft that the USA is said to have purchased include several MiG-27s, MiG-29s and Su-24s.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]