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04-30-24, 02:31 PM | #3331 |
Fleet Admiral
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Markus
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04-30-24, 06:21 PM | #3332 | |
Soaring
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I said I think there is a chance for a Russian operational breakthrough building up. And now, 6 hours ago, Colonel Reisner too starts to speak of the increasing chance of Russia acchieving a "major breakthrough".
What he also says is that the ATCAMS attacks done so far, four if I counted right, did not leave a lasting impression on the Russians. As was to be feared. A few scattered attacks here and there do not make much of a difference, I think you need enough ammo to fire them in volleys and several attacks every day, day for day, over weeks. The Ukrainians obviously do not have enough ATACMS for that. So its headline-creating pinpoint attacks and on targets that are beyond reach of a Ukrainian push on the ground. Which makes them tactically useless so far. I am thinking longterm here, the ukrainians obviously are in a strictly defesnive position now, and get eaten up, see their ressources in material and men being badly mauled every day, so they use what they are being given for defending themselves by trying to hit the veins and sinews of the Russian pressure wave on the ground: command centres, air force, missiles, and logistics. But by allowing to get locked in this effort, they get mauled up even more. If they do not gain the initiative again (with what...?) they must and will lose. Themerciless law of attritional warfare. The counters go back to zero. Who reaches zero first, looses. This all slowly turns into a real hopeless fight, I think. No degrees of freedom seem to to be left for the Ukrainian command at the front. If you have both arms engaged to merely hold the roof over your head, you have no more hands free for fighting. https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de Scheiße. This could turn into the first decisive turning point of the war since autumn 2022. To close this gap will cost the Ukrainians many more precious reserves, and I dont bet money that they will be successful in this attempt. Quote:
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Last edited by Skybird; 04-30-24 at 06:32 PM. |
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04-30-24, 06:44 PM | #3333 |
Rear Admiral
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I’m not so sure what we see happening could be considered a breakthrough. Penetration of certain defensive positions? Yes. But a breakthrough is when those defensive lines are penetrated then rapidly exploited. I would hardly consider slogging 1/2 a click per day as a breakthrough. I would think too the toll on Russia manpower would be extremely heavy to get as far as they have. As one Ukrainian General put it, it’s not about holding cities and monuments, it’s about killing Russian soldiers.
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Extradite Deez Nutz in your mouth Commissioner Mark Rowley you fascist pig. Make 1984 fiction again. Last edited by Rockstar; 04-30-24 at 06:52 PM. |
04-30-24, 07:17 PM | #3334 |
Soaring
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I did not say this is a big breakthrough, I said two or three days ago that there is a big danger of this leading to an operational breakthrough, and Reisner now says its a break into the second and third defense lines which are not as well prepared as the - by now disappeared - first line they had build since 2014, and which were meant for delay only. Reisner also said this could turn into as he called it a major breakthrough. But the Russians have penetrated 2nd and 3rd lines, and are widening and deepening the breach.
Ukraine obviously finds it extremely difficult to scratch together any reserves able to fill the gap and seal it, while the Russians work on it. The Russian pressure will increase further, due to symbol-heavy May 9th festivities. Reisner said the situaiton is so depseratwe that the ATACMS attrackiugnCirmea were little help - the firepower must be focussed on sealing the breach now. If they fail, this could be the beginning of the end and lead to the collapse of the whole front int hat district. Hence my fear of what I phrase as "operational breakthrough". If the Russian succeed with this breach, then it gets a real big thing. In the past two weeks Russia penetrated defences in that sector up to 20km deep, I read. They clean their path with their damn glide bombs. And there can be no doubt that the Ukrainians also take heavy casualties. Its just not as prominently reported in our news.
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Last edited by Skybird; 04-30-24 at 07:28 PM. |
04-30-24, 10:45 PM | #3335 | |
Ocean Warrior
Join Date: Mar 2004
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I'm thinking lots of grift, but I'm more worried about Sleepy Joe managing to get us into WW3. I bet he even has the same pajamas.
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05-01-24, 12:01 AM | #3336 |
CINC Pacific Fleet
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Those pajamas have a nice sheen to them!
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Sub captains go down with their ship! |
05-01-24, 12:15 AM | #3337 | |
Wayfaring Stranger
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No he's not but at this point in the American revolution not too many people thought all that much of George either having just lost a major part of his army while getting his butt kicked out of Long Island and Manhattan by the British.
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05-01-24, 07:47 AM | #3338 |
Ocean Warrior
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Here's another deep dive from the Naval War College. Keep in mind this presentation is from 18 months ago, which brings up its own point- not much is changing.
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05-01-24, 08:58 AM | #3339 | |
Chief of the Boat
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'Our victory is inevitable!': Moscow exhibition showcases Western tanks captured from Ukraine
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05-01-24, 01:32 PM | #3340 |
Fleet Admiral
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Markus
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My little lovely female cat |
05-01-24, 05:07 PM | #3341 |
Soaring
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__________________
If you feel nuts, consult an expert.
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05-01-24, 05:23 PM | #3342 |
Fleet Admiral
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How well they have performed the Ukrainian throughout Spring and Summer can be judged in the Autumn.
Markus
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My little lovely female cat |
05-02-24, 09:32 AM | #3343 |
Fleet Admiral
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Markus
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My little lovely female cat |
05-02-24, 11:06 AM | #3344 | |
Rear Admiral
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Posts made 1 May from a u.s. based honey pot. Where some friendlies and many of the anti-western/anti-ukraine arsehats hang out.
https://www.moonofalabama.org/ ———————— Quote:
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Extradite Deez Nutz in your mouth Commissioner Mark Rowley you fascist pig. Make 1984 fiction again. |
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05-02-24, 12:39 PM | #3345 | |
Chief of the Boat
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France to send troops to Ukraine if Russia breaks through front lines
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