What would the World be like without oil dependence?

[CB..]

let's not forget allso Gas supplies---especailly in light of Russias' stance on gas prices et al--

here's a very short section of an article in the finantail times (possibly out of context of course)

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An air of unreality hung over events as Russian national television suspended normal programming on New Year’s day to show live pictures of technicians turning down the flow of natural gas to Ukraine at a compressor station near the Russian border.

Few believed Russia would carry out its threat, on the day it assumed the rotating presidency of the Group of Eight industrialised nations with a pledge to make “energy security� a key theme. The Russia-Ukraine gas trading relationship is, after all, the second largest in the world after Canada-US.

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i just love that phrase--"energy security"----
sometimes it doesn't take bombs to get back to the stone age--

[tycho102]

Originally Posted by Deathblow

If the world was not as dependent on Middle Eastern oil, through say fusion power, what would be the effect on world and/or middle east peace and stability?

We don't NEED "fusion power".

What we do need is breeder reactors. Intead of using a core of enriched U-325 uranium, and then disposing of the entire thing, we need to re-process it. We need to extract the iodine and the cesium for medical diagnostics. We need to extract the U-238 and U-235 and Pu-239 and Pu-240 and Pu-241 and Pu-242 and Thorium and Amercium -- to be used in another reactor's core.

That is the problem with fission. We have enough uranium to last for thousands of years of power production. But everyone (the United States, Europe, Japan, Israel, and recently, Britain, France, and Germany) is worried about nuclear proliferation. They are worried about Iran and North Korea being able to buy or otherwise amalgomate small amount of fissionable material, in order to construct a nuclear weapon.

Right now, oil is just entirely too cheap for anyone to want a solution. Wait until it climbs on up to $100 per barrel of sour crude, and then we'll see some action. The environmentalist protesters will be assaulted by thousands of anti-protesters (working class blue-collar people), and the Governator will be required to call out the nation guard to restore order in every major city in California. The noisy environmentalists, who oppose every single last kind of power production in the current technological realm of science (wind, land-solar, orbital-solar, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, coal, gas, biodiesel), in order to either oppose American capitalism in general, or just to satify some kind of demented psychosis of their own creation, will be suppressed by general society.

At $25, no one cared. At $60, we start talking about it. At $100, you're going to see middle-class people demanding it across the entire world. The oil companies aren't going to go out of business, because we'll still have dozens of refineries producing synthetic oil, tar, plastic-base, coke (the black powder kind, not the drink), and the myriad of other things that only a petroleum engineer knows. The oil companies are just going to change their investments. Energy is energy, and everything is just energy to them. The old generation from the 50's and 60's have a really tough time giving up on petroleum exploration and the system of bribery that goes along with land-men and drilling rights. I can't blame them, because as people get older, they become risk-adverse.




Breeder reactors and core reprocessing. That is the current day, realistic, pragmatic solution. Throw hydrogen in as the energy storage medium, hydrogen-powered vehicles, and a super-conductive electrical transmission grid (the only technological advancement which is currently un-available). If we had every state in America with it's own sulf-sufficient fuel cycle (not including "permanent" storage for the high-level radionucleotides which absolutely cannot be used any other way, which is suprisingly very little), including breeder-reactors, depletion reactors, and re-processing facilities, we could be completely energy independent.

And the oil companies would still exist, and they'd be just as big as they are right now. They'd just be invested in a new system. They'd still be making and drilling for oil. They'd be reprocessing a lot of used oil, too.

[Hitman]

Well, two important topics in here

1.- The Middle East & Oil: Yes, the ME is nowadays more or less important because of oil, but historically it has been a source of trouble because of many other reasons. If anyone still believes here that the Crusades were done with the purpose of "liberating" Jerusalem, then let me remind you that the area was right in the path of the most important commercial route of the ancient times, linking Asia & Europe (Remember Marco Polo?) Then some centuries after that the Suez channel and surrounding areas became a matter of national security for the brits, as the wealth flowing from India went nearby....and now it's oil

No, there will not be any difference for ME conflict when oil runs out. There will sure be another reason to keep fighting over there, be sure...

2.- The end of the oil era: I already opened a topic here some time ago about "Peak Oil"...we are facing serious trouble in the next years, and sure as hell there will be conflicts and violence will raise. No this will not be the end of human beings, and there are alternatives (Coal, Tar Sands, Nuclear...) but it is sure that there will be a heavy crisis that forces adaptment

problem is not wether the world will be more stable with or without oil dependance (no matter which countries have the stuff)

it's what the heck happens as we make the transition--

You did hit the nail again Chris While Tar Sands, nuclear reactors, etc. are developed enough to keep the "sustained growth into infinite" our system needs, there will be a BIG crisis, probably as bad as the one in 1929. Sure it will not be the end, and sure we will sooner or later restart a period of wellfare when solutions are found (6000 million people thinking about how to solve a problem is a good guarantee that someone will come up with a good idea ), but you can bet you neck in that a BIG crisis will come in the next 10 years

I would like to quote something I readed in a "Peak Oil" web some time ago: "Predictions about the future of humankind can be divided in two classes: Those who see a future like Starwars, or those who see a future like Mad Max the Road Warrior"

:hmm:

[Wim Libaers]

Originally Posted by Hitman

I would like to quote something I readed in a "Peak Oil" web some time ago: "Predictions about the future of humankind can be divided in two classes: Those who see a future like Starwars, or those who see a future like Mad Max the Road Warrior"

:hmm:

Basically, the only thing they disagree about is how advanced the methods for fighting wars will be


Agreed about the oil issue. We won't see the end of oil soon, and actually I don't expect anyone will see it for thousands of years. But the end of cheap oil... Really soon now.

[CB..]

Originally Posted by Hitman

You did hit the nail again Chris While Tar Sands, nuclear reactors, etc. are developed enough to keep the "sustained growth into infinite" our system needs, there will be a BIG crisis, probably as bad as the one in 1929. Sure it will not be the end, and sure we will sooner or later restart a period of wellfare when solutions are found (6000 million people thinking about how to solve a problem is a good guarantee that someone will come up with a good idea ), but you can bet you neck in that a BIG crisis will come in the next 10 years

I would like to quote something I readed in a "Peak Oil" web some time ago: "Predictions about the future of humankind can be divided in two classes: Those who see a future like Starwars, or those who see a future like Mad Max the Road Warrior"

:hmm:

Cheers HM!
when politicains start using terms like "energy security" and keeping a straight face then we know were in for at least some Mad Max type scenarios (in fact we know were already there)--if and when we get a new power source for reliable personal transport -electricity generation etc etc etc---we'll probably have a very long period of dual culture power generation -as those countrys un able to afford high tech power generation continue to rely on older power sources including oil--in fact this is probably going to be one of the major sources of contention in the long run---why should one country pay for highly expensive modern power sources -re-tool their factorys - rationalise/close down their oil industrys and infrastructure and re-invest in new technology (an absolutely massive almost inconcievable shift) whilst another poorer country continues to rely on oil---knowing that in fact if the richer countrys convert to new technology- that will free up huge amounts of oil for use by the less develoed countrys heavy industry transport plastic etc etc -- so spend insane amounts of money to fund new developments and at the same time give access to the remaining oil stock to your competetors and any one else who decides to pass the buck--fewer countrys using oil---stocks last longer--bit of a finnicky situation--

"energy security"--- Mad Max is here he may be wearing a suit and pretending to be a buisnessman but here's here allright! :hmm:

bleed in the developing worlds rapid industrialisation and increasing dependance on coal and oil--reluctance of the major powers to encourage nuclear research in these countrys--the need to address climate changes and pollution controls--the manufacture of cheap goods in these countrys--
and the whole kaboodle appears to turning into the same problem--

sure hope they know what they're doing up there 'cos it looks like a corker from down here lol

[micky1up]

i dont think we would ever have known the answer because everytime a new way of moving cars and trucks without oil the oil companies buy it and bury it

[Abraham]

This thread-subject got in my opinion actualised when Gazprom (Russia, Putin) closed the natural gas deliveries to the Ukra�ne for obvious political reasons and made Western Europepainfully aware that it depends for a large part on energy sources that may be manipulated for political reasons; making stability in the Middle East an even greater necessity...