The CHN/ China thread

[Skybird]

I wonder wether the Chinese fishing boat fleets already get counted as a branch of their military? They are harassing other nations fisherboats even inside theese nations' own territorial waters. And when one challenges them on that, they send an armada of coast guard boats.

What's "suffocating" and "bullying" in Mandarin?

[August]

Originally Posted by Reece

Thanks, I needed that boost in spirits!!

Well it might cost me my citizenship but I would volunteer to come help you drive them off and I wouldn't be the only one.

[mapuc]

It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with

Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.

Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan

China has decided to invade Taiwan.

What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with

Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.

Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan

China has decided to invade Taiwan.

What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?

Markus

Did this massive armada suddenly materialize out of thin air? How does such an intelligence failure happen with todays technology?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with

Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.

Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan

China has decided to invade Taiwan.

What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?

Markus

I would expect a massive cyber offensive first to cause confusion, disruption, sensor and intel blindess, damage, short: messing of C3I infrastructure and bringing down civil production and traffic, causing panic, reducing reaction times. Then a systematic attempt to isolate the air space around the island so that no supplies and reinforcements could get in, combined with the effort to keep the US carriers at long distance so that they cannot strike so easily. Extensive ASW operations as well. Maybe even attack them directly. I think they have the capability to kill them - if they manage to pinpoint their location. Just then I expect an intensification of the missile bombardement of the island, both industrial and military targets, and an armada of amphibious units and troop carriers crossing the strait. Probably also intense infiltration via special commands, for sabotaging, and collecting intel, many days ahead.

Some of what will happen, maybe will remind of what we have seen on the Crimean, and the Russian-Georgian war. The Russian tricks to spread confusion and keep the world wondering instea d of reacting, was extremely successful.

For the US, the risks of high losses are very immense, so nare the risks for the Chiense. But by their state setup and mentality they are better prepared to digest them. The US will be given hell at home.

I put my money on China. The open question only is at what price (losses) they will get their will. But they will get it.

The only thing that leaves doubt sin me is that China has a similiarly low war index as the US or the West. Party rule and totalitarianism and proaganda is all nice and well, still the society in China, its age structure, is atypical for an expansive aggressive political course. In 2017, China ha da war index of 0.99, the US of 0.96.

click:



I do not expect too much from Japan and Soutgh Korea, by numbers their possibilities simply are too limited.



As the US, i would do all what militarily could be done to widen the combat zone from Taiwan to all the coastal industrial centres and metropoles of the Chinese homeland. Why helping in the destruction of Taiwan by fighting there, instead of carrying the destruction to the attacker and making him bleed on his own land? If China does not pay the price, its pointless to fight it. This forces China to spread its forces to protect all its coast, instead of amassing its power at and around Taiwan, gaining absolute superiority there. Stealth, and long range missiles will play a dominant role. Go for the industry, the economy, the energy production, dams, nuclear powerplants, everything. Soft targets. And by that, maximising the pain for China and the price it has to pay. The public mujst feel that this war is not just some distant patriotic show event, but bites them into their noses right in their own private lives.



Both sides will desperately run extensive ASW operations. Numbers again are against the Americans.



IMO key would be to inflict and maximise punishing damages and losses on the Chinese - but not in the battle for Taiwan directly (which would only accumalate collateral damage to Taiwan), but everywhere in China where the distance allows it. China is a highly developed and industrialised country in certain coastal regions: these translate into juicy, target rich areas, and I would hit there with all power I have, and repeatingly, as hard as possible. It may also help to minimise own losses. Force preserverance is of the essence, if you are as low in numbers and ammo, as the West and the US today is.



Focussing on a military and defensive fighting at Taiwan, imo has absolutely no chance to win, but is a guarantee for desaster. This war shall at no cost be played according to the Chinese rule book. Their rules must be avoided, at all costs. One needs to get out of their screenplay, and immediately.



This way ^, it will be a very bloody mess, outstandingly so. And I am not certain that American leaders have what it takes to turn into the kind of monsters that are needed to order for a fight that could win that war. Global trade will take a dive. And Alaska and the US West Coast are open for retaliation. So are shipping lanes and trade line bottle necks around the globe. The Chinese constantly work on getting a globally operational navy, and widen the network of support bases around all continents.



More ammo stocks in stealthed missiles and cruise missiles. More submarines. More surface platforms. More planes and/or drones. More cyberwar competences. High Tech compensates low own numbers to a certain degree, but not beyond. And Chinese hits at the West Coast must be expected if America plays outside the Chinese rule book and turns the war into something nasty. If America doe snto do this, it better does not even start playing.


Honestly said, I do not only doubt the US would risk a full war with China over Taiwan - I even recommend not to do it. Preserve the forces to protect your Western flank, and live some years longer as a slowly farewelling global superpower, while the Chinese rise and overtake you anyway in this century. What's in for you in Taiwan? Only losses, no gains.



Maybe the lonely single German frigate that is being send now, could improve the situation.

[mapuc]

@ August I could have started several weeks before and wrote
The Chinese says they are planning on a huge exercise. But I guessed this wasn't needed.

@Skybird Thank you-It was like reading some pages from Tom Clancy.

I hope that China doesn't makes the threat seriously and attack Taiwan.

When it comes to Taiwan and Ukraine I have this deep feeling that our western leaders are very good at roaring loudly...sadly its toothless.

Is this good or bad...Well this depends on how much we are prepared to offer to draw a line in the sand against China and Russia.

Are we willing to exchange nukes if it should come so far ??
We have to take this into the equation

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The superpowers will only use nukes in a retaliatory strike should they be attacked with nukes first.

[Skybird]

I forgot to mention that all the Chinese military efforts could be summarised by two terms: "global operation capability" (they are still far from that, but it is clear they work on getting there), and "area denial" (a capability they possibly already have acchieved: keeping US airplanes and carriers more than an arms length away. What battleships were in WW2, carriers maybe will be in a Chinese-US war).

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The superpowers will only use nukes in a retaliatory strike should they be attacked with nukes first.

True

But we do not know how the Chinese will react if they are thrown back in their attempt to take Taiwan or if they are pressed back from the South China sea.

We do not know how USA will react if they got a good beating in the effort to defend Taiwan or failed in pressing China back.

It all depends on how much our western leaders are prepared to sacrifice.

Markus

[Reece]

. . . and don't forget, if your country is going down then you may as well take out the offenders as well!!

[Jimbuna]

Nope, not gonna happen. The US are only about protecting Taiwan as opposed to taking Chinese territory.

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

@ August I could have started several weeks before and wrote
The Chinese says they are planning on a huge exercise. But I guessed this wasn't needed.

There are many tell tale signs to differentiate between a training exercise and actual preparations for a shooting war Markus. Our military has entire organizations devoted to detecting and identifying them. Several weeks of Chinese war preparations can't be hidden for an operation of the scale that you are talking about. These preparations hey will be met by several weeks of similar preparations by Taiwan and US forces.
The only way I believe the ChiComs have a chance in your scenario is to catch the US and its allies completely flatfooted, achieving complete surprise which imo just doesn't sound very realistic.

[Skybird]

Taiwan and the Ukraine and Biden and the EU.

https://translate.google.com/transla...ne.at/61905-2/


Both Taiwan and the Ukraine once were nuclear powers, but gave up their arsenals - last but not least due to pressure from Washington. How many tears they meanwhile have cried over this mistake of theirs we will never know.

[Moonlight]

You'll never know if the USA gave them back, that's if they ever took them back in the first place.
We'll know for definite if the mushroom clouds suddenly start appearing in the sky, I wonder if Russia or China are thinking this as well.

[mapuc]

Watched one of these video clip Jim posted in our Share Your Favorite Naval Pictures and Videos thread.

While watching it I came to the conclusion

I may not know much about military strategy, but I do know that if China turn their theoretical threat into practice, the number of causality on both side will be huge.

The question is of course who will benefit from this major lost of life and materials ?

My hunch says me that it really doesn't matter if China should lose 100.000 men during one day.

Losing 100.000 men would be devastating for USA and Taiwan.

I could be wrong though.

Markus