How long does Putin have left in office?

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Betonov

Only one thing wrong with the picture.
That eagle on the right should be double-headed

[Betonov]

Well, the Emperor in 40k has a double eagle, the Romanovs had a double eagle and the current Russian crest has a double eagle.
No heresy here

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Betonov

Only one thing wrong with the picture.
That eagle on the right should be double-headed

Well the original one had a single head.

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Well the original one had a single head.

I know, It shoudl have a double.
But upon a closer look, there is a double eagle on the third seal under the throne and the single eagle is on a marine helmet so it might just be a chapter thing.

Geek mode off

Chances are that he would step down after 2018 or 2024, depending on the availiability of successor. This is because you can't run three times in a row.

What if he pulls another switch with Medvedjev.
Sit one term as a PM and then goes back to presidency ??

[Oberon]

There's nothing in the constitution that says he can't sit out one term and run again, if Medvedev and Putin have healed the slight rift that happened a while ago when Medvedev tried distancing himself from Putin then Medvedev could be put in as President for one term and then Putin could come back.

Originally Posted by wikipedia

Since the constitution contains no ruling on a total number of terms that a President may serve, a former president may seek re-election after sitting out one complete term.

In other words:



(the words are 'bald' and 'hairy' repeating)

[ikalugin]

Yea, he could run this and the next term and then switch. If Medvedev is not availiable for whatever reasons then another candidate may be elected. That said - Russia needs reforms now and political will to conduct those. In theory Putin can try to pull another 2007-present day mil reform type thing, but this time with economics.

[Bilge_Rat]

In theory Putin could be there for a long time, but there are very few president/dictator/politician who manage to stay in power until death, just look how many dictators have been pushed out just in the past 5 years.

Putin built his domestic popularity in part on rising income for the middle class and some good foreign policy moves. Now Russia is in the midst of a economic depression, falling oil prices, economic sanctions and potential quagmires in Ukraine and Syria.

If Putin does not resolve at least some of these issues by 2018, he could be in trouble. Russians will accept some amount of electoral fraud, but assume he only polls 20% and has to resort to massive fraud to stay in power. Will Russians just accept it or will they stage massive demonstrations like in Ukraine? Will the Army just stand by if Putin has to shoot hundreds of protesters to stay in power?

His position is not as secure as it seems.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

In theory Putin could be there for a long time, but there are very few president/dictator/politician who manage to stay in power until death, just look how many dictators have been pushed out just in the past 5 years.

Putin built his domestic popularity in part on rising income for the middle class and some good foreign policy moves. Now Russia is in the midst of a economic depression, falling oil prices, economic sanctions and potential quagmires in Ukraine and Syria.

If Putin does not resolve at least some of these issues by 2018, he could be in trouble. Russians will accept some amount of electoral fraud, but assume he only polls 20% and has to resort to massive fraud to stay in power. Will Russians just accept it or will they stage massive demonstrations like in Ukraine? Will the Army just stand by if Putin has to shoot hundreds of protesters to stay in power?

His position is not as secure as it seems.

As one person put it many years ago..."Live by the sword, die by the sword".

Meaning if you use violence, or other harsh means, against other people, you can expect to have those same means used against you; "You can expect to become a victim of whatever means you use to get what you want."

[ikalugin]

If he polls that badly he won't go into elections. Putin (and others on the top of Russian political leadership) are genuine patriots and wish the best for the country. The reason why Putin's policy is bold is because his popularity ratings are high.

Plus we would need to see a sensible alternative for Putin for him to loose in 2018. And who that may be (other than the well known faces of current elites)?

[Oberon]

I think a fair bit also depends on how the siloviki view Putins progress, I mean in terms of world power Putin has brought Russia back into the forefront and kept it there, people view Russia with more respect now than they did back in the early 2000s when it was the laughing stock of much of the world.
Unfortunately he did it by riding on the back of the dollar value of oil which has subsided a fair bit, however it's a fairly sure bet that this is only a temporary lull in value and that it will go back up again, especially if Saudi Arabia loses the war. Whatever replaces the Saud government might not be particularly friendly to western interests, in fact it's very likely not to be since it will view the west as propping up the corrupt Sauds. Obamas move to try and ease relations with Iran and back off a bit from Saudi Arabia might help a bit there, but there's a lot of history between the US and Saudi Arabia so that's not something that can be just swept under the rug.
I think Putin isn't in any major danger of losing his position yet, he's got himself into a good spot, his main opponents have either mysteriously died or have gone quiet, so he's relatively stable.
Of course, like the old days, you never see the knife that gets you, because it usually comes from behind and into your back. Putin is KGB (You can't say ex-KGB because it's like the Marines, once you're one, you're always one) so he knows to watch his back, he wouldn't have made it this far in Russian politics if he didn't.
Come to think of it, if Putin does run again in the next presidentials then he'll have run Russia longer than any leader since the end of the Tsars.

[Mittelwaechter]

You can simply tell the people the truth or you can deceitfully fool the people.

For propaganda you're especially predisposed after internalizing you are not exposed to it.

[Bilge_Rat]

If you ignore Chernenko and Andropov, both of whom had very short terms, the only Russian leader who died in office since Stalin was Brezhnev.

Krushchev, Gorbachev and Yeltsin were all forced from office, not a very good track record.

As to who could replace him, behind every Mubarak, there is a Sisi.

The Chinese have a better system, by replacing the "Great Leader" every 10 years or so, you keep the ambitious players in line waiting their turn.

The problem with a one man show is that very ambitious pols know they have to push the leader out of the way to move forward.

[ikalugin]

 

Originally Posted by Oberon

I think a fair bit also depends on how the siloviki view Putins progress, I mean in terms of world power Putin has brought Russia back into the forefront and kept it there, people view Russia with more respect now than they did back in the early 2000s when it was the laughing stock of much of the world.
Unfortunately he did it by riding on the back of the dollar value of oil which has subsided a fair bit, however it's a fairly sure bet that this is only a temporary lull in value and that it will go back up again, especially if Saudi Arabia loses the war. Whatever replaces the Saud government might not be particularly friendly to western interests, in fact it's very likely not to be since it will view the west as propping up the corrupt Sauds. Obamas move to try and ease relations with Iran and back off a bit from Saudi Arabia might help a bit there, but there's a lot of history between the US and Saudi Arabia so that's not something that can be just swept under the rug.
I think Putin isn't in any major danger of losing his position yet, he's got himself into a good spot, his main opponents have either mysteriously died or have gone quiet, so he's relatively stable.
Of course, like the old days, you never see the knife that gets you, because it usually comes from behind and into your back. Putin is KGB (You can't say ex-KGB because it's like the Marines, once you're one, you're always one) so he knows to watch his back, he wouldn't have made it this far in Russian politics if he didn't.
Come to think of it, if Putin does run again in the next presidentials then he'll have run Russia longer than any leader since the end of the Tsars.

Actually back in the 2007 (and somewhat earlier) it was obvious that oil rent income model was not sustainable. Even before that we have limited the effects oil income had on the budget with via the budget rule and limits on transfers of revenues to budget and so on.
Then the crisis happened and reforms were pushed back onto the shelf. In 2014 it became obvious that reforms are needed, because reserves would run out at some point in the future and the budget has to be balanced. This was reflected (for example) in the most recent adress to the Federal Councill on the 4th (or was it 3rd?).

Competition wise - Putin just lacks it. And it didn't dissapear, it has never existed in the first place (after the initial transitionary period that is). You are welcome to provide examples of such people if you know any. So it is a choice between the old faces - Putin or Medvedev or someone they suggest.
Note that Putin is de facto above both of the main factions in the government, both the security services types already mentioned here and the financists.

[Oberon]

Most of the oligarchs were Putins main rivals in the early days, and well, more than a couple of them have had unfortunate accidents. Journalists and human rights critics have also had unfortunate accidents as well.
Then, of course there's Liberal Russia, whose leader started it up one day and was murdered the next. Then, of course there's Nemtsov, although to be fair his death could equally have been done to put Putin in a bad light, since it was pretty damn obvious.
Then there's journalists, like Elena Kostyuchenko, who haven't exactly been well treated by the custodial services of Russia.

Let's face it, if Putin sees you as a threat, you suddenly become arrested for financial improperity, or you die. Putin isn't stupid, and he's doing no less than hundreds of leaders before him and after him have done. Even the western democracies have no doubt made people disappear, it's what political leaders do. Anyone who plays that game knows it, the best thing to do is make yourself too big to go quietly.

[ikalugin]

Interestingly enough you do not mention any credible, non marginal politicians. Liberals by 2000 (ie after 90s) and certainly by 2014 were not in that category. Unless you count in the battle with old guard oligarhs in the early years of the regime (which I have specifically cut out due to how those oligarhs have operated in the 90s) all you describe are journalists/activists being murdered (sadly this is reality - there is a degree of corruption going around and sometimes journalists die and that happens without Putin's intervention).

Let's face it, if Putin sees you as a threat, you suddenly become arrested for financial improperity, or you die.

Interesting claim. Define "dangerous". Were the journalists that you have described dangerous to Putin (or his regime) rather than some people well below him in the order of things?