Germanwings Airbus Crashed in France - Page 2

Torplexed · 03-25-15, 05:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar

oh fer cryin out loud I never saw so much dancing around. Considering past world events it also quite is possible it was done deliberately.

I find it hard to believe that a terrorist group wouldn't have taken credit by now. ISIS certainly never seems to be reticent about crowing over it's atrocities.

Oberon · 03-25-15, 06:33 AM

Terrorism has already been ruled out by a few parties, it's probably the least likely of all the causes.

Dowly · 03-25-15, 06:41 AM

The director general of aviation of Finnish Transport Safety Agency, Pekka Henttu, has told YLE (finnish BBC) that according to the information he has received, the CVR indicates both pilots were unconscious during the final 8 minutes.

CCIP · 03-25-15, 01:56 PM

Now, obviously a lot of things could've incapacitated the pilots, so I'm not jumping the gun on anything, BUT - here's something to consider: again, the 9-minute descent where there's no evidence of any control inputs or heading changes, and the aircraft's vertical path is consistent with a fairly normal descent at idle thrust and spoilers out. The most similar suicide-by-pilot incident would be the recent LAM 470 crash, but even there the aircraft was going down at rates in excess of 6,000fpm, not the 3,500fpm that you had here. And that one's still under investigation. PSA 1771, the most famous cockpit invasion/suicide incident, went supersonic before crashing, and all the 9/11 planes were going at substantially more erratic paths and extreme speeds/descent rates than this one.

I think it's just really unlikely that anything other than a decompression and incapacitated pilots would've done all these things to make this accident happen. If someone was trying to crash the plane, they probably wouldn't have been going down with spoilers out and at idle thrust. It's hard to see why that descent would've been initiated that way in the first place except a decompression. If something went wrong with the plane's controls, it's unlikely that the pilots would've kept silent - and unlikely that something would've gone so wrong as to completely prevent the pilots from making any input. Except a sudden loss of consciousness.
But let's wait for the investigation.

GoldenRivet · 03-25-15, 06:22 PM

Lending credibility to the loss of consciousness due to lack of oxygen theory - is the 8 minutes of silence in the descent. familiar with airline procedures as i am, i find it difficult to believe that the pilots lost consciousness due to oxygen deprivation under normal decompression circumstances.

there are too many safe guards in place preventing it

Cabin altitude alert should have sounded at 10,000 feet cabin pressure altitude (or whatever the A320 preset is but 10K is pretty standard across the board) and unless both pilots were heavy smokers, 10,000 feet shouldnt have been much of a problem, even if they hadn't caught a slow decompression until the alarm went off they wouldnt have been so deprived of oxygen that they couldnt go "Oh crap, the cabin altitude is 10K and rising... better put on this oxygen mask." and then follow through with the action.

a rapid decompression would have been pretty unmistakable and obvious to the crew even without aural indications from the alerting system. so they would have likely acted immediately.

What this leaves is some fault with the oxygen system.

Interestingly enough the aircraft was grounded for a period of time just a few days before the accident in which work was done to the gear doors.

it just so happens that frequently, in large aircraft at least in my experience, that the landing gear bay for the nose gear is a hub of critical systems. I can't speak for the A320, but generally the nose gear bay is a junction of hydraulic and electric lines, home to reservoirs for fluid, houses hydraulic motors, and in some types even is the location where oxygen tanks are kept and or filled and emptied etc.

the reason this is of note, sometimes, maintenance procedures require certain systems to be disabled, removed or otherwise may be temporarily affected by a seemingly unrelated repair. if there are oxygen valves or bottles for example within or near the A320 nose gear bay and a maintenance function required any heated applications or welding or any other option which might prove to be a fire hazard, it would likely be required that systems related to oxygen storage or flow would have been disabled, removed or turned off to reduce the risk of fire or explosion. (if any such systems exist in the nose gear bay as they do in many large aircraft)

If thats the case, were these systems reactivated or otherwise returned to service? If not, perhaps in the event that the mechanics were focused on their task and after an hour of repairs buttoned everything up after forgetting to switch the oxygen back on. If the aircraft never experienced a decompression, this might have gone unnoticed for a very long time. but in the event of a decompression the flight crew would have donned their oxygen masks assuming all to be functioning normally until they simply passed out during the initial phase of their corrective descent.

at a cruise altitude of 38,000 feet, the flight crew would have had about 20 seconds "time of useful consciousness" ie - the time needed to continue taking coherent actions before becoming so loopy and incoherent that you cannot continue to function normally.

as the rule goes, aviate, navigate, communicate - in that order.

the crew would have first donned oxygen masks at the first indication of depressurization, this would have taken about 3-5 seconds assuming no snags. Time of useful consciousness is now about 15 seconds.

second, they would confirm communications established with the other pilot. by switching their microphone selector from boom to mask and saying something along the lines of "can you hear me?" - "yes i can, can you hear me?" this would have taken just a couple of more seconds. Time of useful consciousness now 10-12 seconds

third (actually simultaneously almost with item 2) they would have established the descent, and input any necessary navigational perameters into the FMS or autopilot for it to resume holding the course and descent they established leaving them more hands free to follow established check list procedures. this would have probably taken about 8 - 10 seconds. Time of useful consciousness is now about 1- 2 seconds remaining.

Finally they would have communicated their problem to ATC, cabin crew, run through emergency check lists etc.

at this point, the flight crew would have been so hypoxic that their minds could probably "see" or "imagine" themselves doing these things and taking corrective action - while in reality they would have sat there with their eyes rolling back in their heads before finally, completely losing consciousness which of course leads to the 8 minutes of silence on the CVR leading up to the point of impact.

for an airline crew to lose consciousness during an emergency procedure as basic as cabin depressurization - be it gradual or explosive - is almost unheard of these days unless there is some sort of failure on the part of their equipment.

If i were an accident investigator, i would be very interested in what the systems layout of the A320 are and if any of the maintenance from previous days might have affected or overlapped with the oxygen system.

CCIP · 03-25-15, 06:44 PM

Agreed - I think all those systems should get looked at. I don't doubt that - as with pretty much any major accident - numerous things would've had to go very wrong for it to happen the way it did. Heads should roll at Lufthansa Technik if they messed up or overlooked the oxygen system during the previous check.

The other incident to bring in here as a possible precedent would be Helios 522. It would be shocking if it was a non-sudden loss of consciousness, considering lessons should've been learned from that one, but that's also plausible.

flostt · 03-25-15, 06:51 PM

imploding windscreen, killing pilots instantly?...then autopilot going into descent due to pressure loss in cockpit ?...no heading chamges, no radio contact...

GoldenRivet · 03-25-15, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flostt

imploding windscreen, killing pilots instantly?...then autopilot going into descent due to pressure loss in cockpit ?...no heading chamges, no radio contact...

Not likely. Windscreen blowing out would not have caused the autopilot to just decide to descend on its own accord.

the autopilot / FMS is a pretty stupid piece of equipment. It only knows what you tell it, and it only does what you physically program it to do.

GoldenRivet · 03-25-15, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCIP

Agreed - I think all those systems should get looked at. I don't doubt that - as with pretty much any major accident - numerous things would've had to go very wrong for it to happen the way it did. Heads should roll at Lufthansa Technik if they messed up or overlooked the oxygen system during the previous check.

The other incident to bring in here as a possible precedent would be Helios 522. It would be shocking if it was a non-sudden loss of consciousness, considering lessons should've been learned from that one, but that's also plausible.

In regards to helios 522... i have long suspected when the mechanic was telling the pilot "Can you confirm the pressurization system is set to auto?" knew at that point exactly what the problem was and that he had oopsed the situation

mapuc · 03-25-15, 07:19 PM

03-25-15, 01:56 PM	#19
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	Now, obviously a lot of things could've incapacitated the pilots, so I'm not jumping the gun on anything, BUT - here's something to consider: again, the 9-minute descent where there's no evidence of any control inputs or heading changes, and the aircraft's vertical path is consistent with a fairly normal descent at idle thrust and spoilers out. The most similar suicide-by-pilot incident would be the recent LAM 470 crash, but even there the aircraft was going down at rates in excess of 6,000fpm, not the 3,500fpm that you had here. And that one's still under investigation. PSA 1771, the most famous cockpit invasion/suicide incident, went supersonic before crashing, and all the 9/11 planes were going at substantially more erratic paths and extreme speeds/descent rates than this one. I think it's just really unlikely that anything other than a decompression and incapacitated pilots would've done all these things to make this accident happen. If someone was trying to crash the plane, they probably wouldn't have been going down with spoilers out and at idle thrust. It's hard to see why that descent would've been initiated that way in the first place except a decompression. If something went wrong with the plane's controls, it's unlikely that the pilots would've kept silent - and unlikely that something would've gone so wrong as to completely prevent the pilots from making any input. Except a sudden loss of consciousness. But let's wait for the investigation. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

03-25-15, 06:22 PM	#20
GoldenRivet Subsim Aviator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Texas Posts: 8,726 Downloads: 146 Uploads: 0	Lending credibility to the loss of consciousness due to lack of oxygen theory - is the 8 minutes of silence in the descent. familiar with airline procedures as i am, i find it difficult to believe that the pilots lost consciousness due to oxygen deprivation under normal decompression circumstances. there are too many safe guards in place preventing it Cabin altitude alert should have sounded at 10,000 feet cabin pressure altitude (or whatever the A320 preset is but 10K is pretty standard across the board) and unless both pilots were heavy smokers, 10,000 feet shouldnt have been much of a problem, even if they hadn't caught a slow decompression until the alarm went off they wouldnt have been so deprived of oxygen that they couldnt go "Oh crap, the cabin altitude is 10K and rising... better put on this oxygen mask." and then follow through with the action. a rapid decompression would have been pretty unmistakable and obvious to the crew even without aural indications from the alerting system. so they would have likely acted immediately. What this leaves is some fault with the oxygen system. Interestingly enough the aircraft was grounded for a period of time just a few days before the accident in which work was done to the gear doors. it just so happens that frequently, in large aircraft at least in my experience, that the landing gear bay for the nose gear is a hub of critical systems. I can't speak for the A320, but generally the nose gear bay is a junction of hydraulic and electric lines, home to reservoirs for fluid, houses hydraulic motors, and in some types even is the location where oxygen tanks are kept and or filled and emptied etc. the reason this is of note, sometimes, maintenance procedures require certain systems to be disabled, removed or otherwise may be temporarily affected by a seemingly unrelated repair. if there are oxygen valves or bottles for example within or near the A320 nose gear bay and a maintenance function required any heated applications or welding or any other option which might prove to be a fire hazard, it would likely be required that systems related to oxygen storage or flow would have been disabled, removed or turned off to reduce the risk of fire or explosion. (if any such systems exist in the nose gear bay as they do in many large aircraft) If thats the case, were these systems reactivated or otherwise returned to service? If not, perhaps in the event that the mechanics were focused on their task and after an hour of repairs buttoned everything up after forgetting to switch the oxygen back on. If the aircraft never experienced a decompression, this might have gone unnoticed for a very long time. but in the event of a decompression the flight crew would have donned their oxygen masks assuming all to be functioning normally until they simply passed out during the initial phase of their corrective descent. at a cruise altitude of 38,000 feet, the flight crew would have had about 20 seconds "time of useful consciousness" ie - the time needed to continue taking coherent actions before becoming so loopy and incoherent that you cannot continue to function normally. as the rule goes, aviate, navigate, communicate - in that order. the crew would have first donned oxygen masks at the first indication of depressurization, this would have taken about 3-5 seconds assuming no snags. Time of useful consciousness is now about 15 seconds. second, they would confirm communications established with the other pilot. by switching their microphone selector from boom to mask and saying something along the lines of "can you hear me?" - "yes i can, can you hear me?" this would have taken just a couple of more seconds. Time of useful consciousness now 10-12 seconds third (actually simultaneously almost with item 2) they would have established the descent, and input any necessary navigational perameters into the FMS or autopilot for it to resume holding the course and descent they established leaving them more hands free to follow established check list procedures. this would have probably taken about 8 - 10 seconds. Time of useful consciousness is now about 1- 2 seconds remaining. Finally they would have communicated their problem to ATC, cabin crew, run through emergency check lists etc. at this point, the flight crew would have been so hypoxic that their minds could probably "see" or "imagine" themselves doing these things and taking corrective action - while in reality they would have sat there with their eyes rolling back in their heads before finally, completely losing consciousness which of course leads to the 8 minutes of silence on the CVR leading up to the point of impact. for an airline crew to lose consciousness during an emergency procedure as basic as cabin depressurization - be it gradual or explosive - is almost unheard of these days unless there is some sort of failure on the part of their equipment. If i were an accident investigator, i would be very interested in what the systems layout of the A320 are and if any of the maintenance from previous days might have affected or overlapped with the oxygen system. __________________

03-25-15, 06:44 PM	#21
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	Agreed - I think all those systems should get looked at. I don't doubt that - as with pretty much any major accident - numerous things would've had to go very wrong for it to happen the way it did. Heads should roll at Lufthansa Technik if they messed up or overlooked the oxygen system during the previous check. The other incident to bring in here as a possible precedent would be Helios 522. It would be shocking if it was a non-sudden loss of consciousness, considering lessons should've been learned from that one, but that's also plausible. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

03-25-15, 06:51 PM	#22
flostt Sonar Guy Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: Switzerland Posts: 388 Downloads: 86 Uploads: 0	imploding windscreen, killing pilots instantly?...then autopilot going into descent due to pressure loss in cockpit ?...no heading chamges, no radio contact... __________________ Von den 40'000 deutschen U-Boot-Männern des Zweiten Weltkrieges kehrten 30'000 nicht zurück... 40’000 German sailors served on U-boats during World War II – 30’000 never returned home...

03-25-15, 07:31 PM	#26
GoldenRivet Subsim Aviator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Texas Posts: 8,726 Downloads: 146 Uploads: 0	I just read that. That makes this into a whole other ball of wax __________________

03-25-15, 06:33 AM	#17
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Terrorism has already been ruled out by a few parties, it's probably the least likely of all the causes.

03-25-15, 06:41 AM	#18
Dowly Lucky Jack Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Finland Posts: 25,052 Downloads: 32 Uploads: 0	The director general of aviation of Finnish Transport Safety Agency, Pekka Henttu, has told YLE (finnish BBC) that according to the information he has received, the CVR indicates both pilots were unconscious during the final 8 minutes.

03-25-15, 07:37 PM	#27
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Indeed, that puts it down to one of three things. 1) Pilot incapacitation 2) Pilot Suicide 3) Pilot terrorism 3 is quite unlikely, 2 goes against the fairly steady rate of descent versus a nose dive, so out of the two man crew it's possible that the pilot had a Moorgate moment and went into the deck.

03-25-15, 07:39 PM	#29
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	From CNN source. • FBI agents based in France, Germany and Spain are looking through intelligence sources and cross-referencing the passenger manifest of Germanwings Flight 9525, two senior law enforcement officials said. So far, their search hasn't turned up anything that "stands out" or anything linking the passengers to criminal activity, according to one official.

03-25-15, 07:45 PM	#30
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	Wow, okay. If the pilot locked out story turns out true, then this may be not at all unlike the LAM 470 crash I mentioned from just over a year ago. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)