China has a foot in the door of NATO's internal defence market - Page 2

Skybird · 10-17-13, 05:42 PM

The two most likely possible outcomes are a state-enforced debt-based currency in a fully planned economy like we have seen in the Warsaw Pact states - this will happen if the elites are strong enough to enforce the submission of the crowds; else there will be a currency reform, which is the euphemistic term for expropriating most of the possessing people, hyperinflation, a massive depression - collapse, in other words. I would wish that after that they would return to an equivalent to the gold standard, some substantial form of real, of commodity money, but history tells us that the same mistakes are repeated again and again, and even more easily so if the crowds are being told sweet lies - leading them on the path towards paper money again. And without paper money, neither plutocratic elites nor democratic politicians can exist, so they definitely have no interest to return to a gold standard. As a matter of fact it was for the selfishness of these antisocial parasites that they destroyed the gold standard and turned things to paper money. And that was not just the end of Bretton Woods, or the time of WWI - that was already a motive in the American Civil War.

A lot of things need to be changed, not just economically and financially. Talking about nothing else but reorganizing the whole cultural and communal forms of living, communal organizing and administrating. What is needed is a totally different world, nothing less. That's why I am extremely pessimistic that we or the next coming two generations will really go that way. I think they will just repeat the same old patterns and schemes that we just see collapsing.

There is nothing new under the sun - except what has been forgotten. - Santayana

Skybird · 10-17-13, 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oberon

Not a great deal, because Chinas economy is so based around the US economy that if the US economy falls down the Chinese one falls right next to it, and they've got a lot more to lose from their economy falling over than the US has...well...ok, maybe not a LOT, but certainly a bit more, such as their entire governing elite and most of the progress of the last twenty years. The US on the other hand, it would go to pot but would probably be able to rebuild itself quicker than China would because the US has taken the slow and steady route to its current economic spot, whereas China has taken all the shortcuts and so its economy is propped up by twigs.

This is the belief that is very popular today, because it allows the believer to assume that all things will go well and China will play ball and be stupid like it is expected.

But consider this: 1.3 trillion in bonds that every day lose value due to inflation, financial suppression, money printing and all that. The party holding these bonds looses millions and millions in buying power - EVERY SINGLE DAY. And with every escapade Washington performs like just now, or by making the uber-Keynesian super money printer Yellen the new head of the Fed, and by printing money and printing and keep printing on, the chance for the collapse of the ponzi scheme that it all is, are rising. Not to mention that the only American answer to its debts is - to make more debts.

But you cannot spend your way out of debts. You just cant.

How could you seriously assume the Chinese will play by these insane, suicidal rules at their costs, forever? How could you ignore the many signals from that country that they work on unlinking from the dollar, reducing their bonds held, and forming an economic an fiscal order that is dominated by them?

I predict that the Chinese sooner or later will give a very hard wakeup call to the world.

There is a known sociopsychological dilemma that plays a role in economics as well. It is that in a situation were many investments have been made, actors tend to argue and think that one cannot afford to give it up, because then all the invested things would be lost, and so the conclusion is that one needs to carry on supporting the system, and invest more and more in an attempt to keep it alive, else one would loose all one has already pumped into the system. However, the current situation already costs the Chinese a fortune every day, and the situation is such that it becomes destabilised not just by China's interests to free itself from this drowning man threatening to pull it down along with him, but by the devaluing and eroding of the fiscal system and the currencies themselves.

In the end it is not the Chinese actions of the future that dig our fiscal graves. We dig them ourselves. And we have build a whole industry about digging them.

If that is not morbid.

In the end, no wishful thinking, no economic plan and no law suite ever has managed to distort nature's ways, and since the market cannot be planned because the ways by which it reaches its natural price indexing by participants and conditions of trade cannot be humanly understood and described no matter how much empiric data you collect, all such theories must fail, and if you have no theory that functions, you better leave the flow of things to the flow of things. Not to mention that humans act by their own motives that no economic theory ever could measure, describe, calculate into formulas.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." - A. F. Hayek.

Skybird · 10-17-13, 06:10 PM

Any comments on the Chinese missile system and Turkey's deal, btw?

mapuc · 10-17-13, 06:16 PM

Forgot to mentioned it every time we discuss economy and our debt.

Well maybe it is a unattainable dream some of us have? Even Gene Roddenberry had it

A world without money, as it is the world of Star trek.

Markus

Oberon · 10-17-13, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

This is the belief that is very popular today, because it allows the believer to assume that all things will go well and China will play ball and be stupid like it is expected.

But consider this: 1.3 trillion in bonds that every day lose value due to inflation, financial suppression, money printing and all that. The party holding these bonds looses millions and millions in buying power - EVERY SINGLE DAY. And with every escapade Washington performs like just now, or by making the uber-Keynesian super money printer Yellen the new head of the Fed, and by printing money and printing and keep printing on, the chance for the collapse of the ponzi scheme that it all is, are rising. Not to mention that the only American answer to its debts is - to make more debts.

But you cannot spend your way out of debts. You just cant.

How could you seriously assume the Chinese will play by these insane, suicidal rules at their costs, forever? How could you ignore the many signals from that country that they work on unlinking from the dollar, reducing their bonds held, and forming an economic an fiscal order that is dominated by them?

I predict that the Chinese sooner or later will give a very hard wakeup call to the world.

There is a known sociopsychological dilemma that plays a role in economics as well. It is that in a situation were many investments have been made, actors tend to argue and think that one cannot afford to give it up, because then all the invested things would be lost, and so the conclusion is that one needs to carry on supporting the system, and invest more and more in an attempt to keep it alive, else one would loose all one has already pumped into the system. However, the current situation already costs the Chinese a fortune every day, and the situation is such that it becomes destabilised not just by China's interests to free itself from this drowning man threatening to pull it down along with him, but by the devaluing and eroding of the fiscal system and the currencies themselves.

In the end it is not the Chinese actions of the future that dig our fiscal graves. We dig them ourselves. And we have build a whole industry about digging them.

If that is not morbid.

In the end, no wishful thinking, no economic plan and no law suite ever has managed to distort nature's ways, and since the market cannot be planned because the ways by which it reaches its natural price indexing by participants and conditions of trade cannot be humanly understood and described no matter how much empiric data you collect, all such theories must fail, and if you have no theory that functions, you better leave the flow of things to the flow of things. Not to mention that humans act by their own motives that no economic theory ever could measure, describe, calculate into formulas.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." - A. F. Hayek.

I don't disagree, but I think that the timeline is different. Right now China is moving towards a more balanced economy, it was, if I recall correctly, one of the chief goals of the 2012 five year plan, to boost internal demand for products which are currently sold to export markets. To do that they really have to do something about the massive gulf between the rich and the poor in China in order to avoid a second Communist uprising which is something the Deng Xiaoping generation are terrified of, a second Mao. The last thing they need is someone telling the poor people of the countryside that they need to rise up and overthrow the rich people of the coastal cities, right now they can keep them happy with the right amount of PR and government grants, but with the economy slowing down, that money isn't going to last forever, so it really has to be wisely spent away from the cities and redeveloping the countryside. This is one of the reasons there's been so much upset in the villages about property redevelopment, because whole families are usually bought out of their homes/shacks which are then torn down and more modern homes built in their place. This brings to the west stories such as the man who defended his farm with a homemade cannon (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ow-cannon.html) and the man who had a road built around his house (http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/n...-couples-house) usually because the housing bubble has meant that the government is currently offering lower prices than the market value for the houses that they're knocking down, so naturally the more obstinate people of China are telling them where to put their money, these people are often known as 'nails' and there's an old Asian proverb 'The nail that sticks up gets hammered down'.
So, whilst appearing strong and invincible, the Chinese economy is actually very precarious right now. Why should they continue to fund the US, I hear you ask? Well, that is a good question and certainly Beijing IS looking to use its powerful soft power to encourage a move away from the dollar in global trading, they've been talking about it for some time in fact, and it's only because the US has been able to project a strong front in return that no-one has taken the prospect seriously...however, the strong facade of the US is in pieces and so I expect within the next few years the conversation will come up more frequently, at the moment though there are not many good alternatives to the dollar, but I think that something will come from the BRICS that will be put into play, or they might just try for Gold if they're desperate enough to get out from the dollar.
This takes time, especially if they want to avoid a total collapse of the Chinese economy, and make no mistake, it's something that they are no doubt laying the framework for right now, but their primary focus is preventing a second Mao from putting all the progress of the past thirty years down the drain, and to do that they need to keep the masses in the countryside quiet and happy, and China has a lot of countryside, so this is something that's going to take at least five to ten years.
Of course, that is providing that the cracks in the Three Gorges Dam don't get any bigger and do to China what the supervolcano in Yellowstone threatens to do to America.

Skybird · 10-17-13, 07:55 PM

More on topic, Turkey: WP reports that Ankara has disclosed identity of ten Israeli agents in Iran to Iranian authorities.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...45b_story.html

I say since long that the Turks cannot be trusted, and that they play a double game . But if true, this act even by Erdoghan's underhanded standards would a rich. NATO and Washington need to draw consequences from this story. If the story is true, Turkey cannot be NATO member any longer, and should be thrown out, no matter formalities.

Well. Should.

The kicking-out will not happen, as we all can easily forsee. Obama loves Erdoghan. Obama tolerates a nuclear armed Iran just to not needing to take action about it. And he dislikes Netanyahu. Obama and the new Iranian smile-wolf in a sheep's fur will soon be the closest of penpals, you'll see.

The EU, arabophile and anti-Israeli as it is, will not care for the Turkish treason, and will use it as an illustration of why Turkey more urgently than ever needs to become EU member.

With allies like this, you'll soon may find your enemies to be the lesser evil - they are easier to be recognised as such.

Oberon · 10-17-13, 07:59 PM

But what is the future of NATO? I mean, now that the Soviet Union is no more and the likelihood of Russia storming across Germany has been relegated to Call of Duty Modern Warfare, aside from Kosovo NATO hasn't really got much in the way of a role in the current Europe.

Skybird · 10-18-13, 07:17 AM

That a defence is currently not needed should not make anyone believe that one could dismantle all defences. One should keep it up as a regional defence force for the North Atlantic region: North America, Europe. Cannot hurt to maintain a reserve. Whether that reserve indeed is stable, is another question.

Against out-of-area operations I have been from all discussions on. I do not follow the American idea of turning NATO into auxiliary forces for globalized American action. I am all for taking the term NATO literally. All operations outside that area should be understood as national war operations by individual states with no obligation by official NATO to help, assist, support them.

The alternative would be to form a military union of Europeans only, a NATO without Canada and the US. Realistic? Not in the forseeable time, I think.

But possible that America's role in NATO erodes all by itself, due to financial constraints.

The function of a reserve strictly is to be available when it is needed. It must not produce benefits and interests while waiting.

Oberon · 10-18-13, 08:46 AM

That is the problem, to maintain a decent reserve requires money that is simply not available. In some situations you can do it on the cheap, the Boneyard comes to mind, but in regards to ships and the like, it gets expensive over time to keep the units ready that they may be reactivated within a short period of time. Plus there's the difficulty of actually attracting people into the reserve forces to begin with, you can draw down standing forces and allocate a large portion of them to the reserves, but when it comes to getting new blood into the system, as Australia is showing, it's not that easy in the modern society where people would rather sit at an office chair than in the back of an APC (and I can't say I blame them), of course in a war time scenario there's always the draft but then you have training problems to deal with as well as a war time economy.
A NATO without the US and Canada is very unlikely though, although the idea of an EU army has been floated time and again, I don't see any of the EU agreeing on something long enough to pass it through, especially when it comes to military sovereignty.

Skybird · 10-18-13, 09:02 AM

Drones take over the air war within the forseeable future now, I think. The next field where I could imagine drones becoming the dominant platform, are naval forces. That could help against the personnel problem of reserve forces that you outlined.

A very major step will be the shift from remote-controlled drones to autonomous drones. Only this will really adress the vulnerability of RC drones. I imagine the developing of such software is no easy task.

What for the forseeable future will remain difficult to replace it by drones, is the boot on the ground. However, the opposing boot on the ground can be hampered by own air drones.

Oberon · 10-18-13, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Drones take over the air war within the forseeable future now, I think. The next field where I could imagine drones becoming the dominant platform, are naval forces. That could help against the personnel problem of reserve forces that you outlined.

A very major step will be the shift from remote-controlled drones to autonomous drones. Only this will really adress the vulnerability of RC drones. I imagine the developing of such software is no easy task.

What for the forseeable future will remain difficult to replace it by drones, is the boot on the ground. However, the opposing boot on the ground can be hampered by own air drones.

True, although drones are really just starting up, but definitely they are the future of the armed forces, and when autonomous drones come online then the whole balance of warfare is going to change quite spectacularly. I expect that the Terminator series will suddenly become very popular again...

I'm surprised that more hasn't taken place with land and sea drones, but with land drones I guess the RC is a limitation, you'd have to use either satellite or LOS which both have disadvantages.
Given the advances in AI technology, I'd carefully pencil in autonomous drones by 2020, perhaps 2017 at the earliest. In terms of saving the economy though, I think it's a little too little too late.

Skybird · 10-18-13, 04:33 PM

@ mapuc especially, but all others interested as well:

since you asked about the Chinese share of us bonds, and seemed to ask for what that could mean for the dollar, and since this thread already is running two main tracks anyway.

LINK - How much longer will the dollar be the reserve currency

Quote:

The dollar is very susceptible to losing its vaunted reserve currency position by the first major trading country that stops inflating its currency. There is evidence that China understands what is at stake; it has increased its gold holdings and has instituted controls to prevent gold from leaving China. Should the world’s second largest economy and one of the world’s greatest trading nations tie its currency to gold, demand for the yuan would increase and demand for the dollar would decrease. In practical terms this means that the world’s great trading nations would reduce their holdings of dollars, and dollars held overseas would flow back into the US economy, causing prices to increase. How much would they increase? It is hard to say, but keep in mind that there is an equal amount of dollars held outside the US as inside the US.

President Obama’s imminent appointment of career bureaucrat Janet Yellen as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board is evidence that the US policy of continuing to cheapen the dollar via Quantitative Easing will continue. Her appointment increases the likelihood that demand for dollars will decline even further, raising the likelihood of much higher prices in America as demand by trading nations to hold other currencies as reserves for trade settlement increase.

mapuc · 10-18-13, 07:15 PM

^ Skybird I know I should have posted it here

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=207916

Funny you mentioned the dollars, earlier this evening I saw a person from a danish bank talking about the dollar, the central bank in USA buying lots of bonds(or what it's called) to keep the interest as low as possible and keep on "creating" new dollar note.

Lets go back to what this thread is about.
China's increasing interest in Africa, Middle east and South America and thereby pushing NATO and other western country aside.

I which I could remember every word of an very interesting article I once read in a Swedish newspaper. It was about About China who had expanded its sphere of influence to including Africa and the Middle East and if I remember it South America.

Markus

periunder · 10-18-13, 11:05 PM

I'm not a fan of drones, It will gradually take more and more jobs away from career soldiers and people who have no other hope than join the military.

Being in the military can be a dangerous occupation, but in the US the ratio of those killed to those wounded in action has shifted drastically in favor of actually surviving the war. Manufactured limbs and other impressive advances in our health industry also make the military a very sound financial employment opportunity in the US. There is no question the respect and government treatment of US personnel has skyrocketed since the 70's.

Technology is the greatest threat to our working wages.

10-17-13, 05:42 PM	#16
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,670 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	The two most likely possible outcomes are a state-enforced debt-based currency in a fully planned economy like we have seen in the Warsaw Pact states - this will happen if the elites are strong enough to enforce the submission of the crowds; else there will be a currency reform, which is the euphemistic term for expropriating most of the possessing people, hyperinflation, a massive depression - collapse, in other words. I would wish that after that they would return to an equivalent to the gold standard, some substantial form of real, of commodity money, but history tells us that the same mistakes are repeated again and again, and even more easily so if the crowds are being told sweet lies - leading them on the path towards paper money again. And without paper money, neither plutocratic elites nor democratic politicians can exist, so they definitely have no interest to return to a gold standard. As a matter of fact it was for the selfishness of these antisocial parasites that they destroyed the gold standard and turned things to paper money. And that was not just the end of Bretton Woods, or the time of WWI - that was already a motive in the American Civil War. A lot of things need to be changed, not just economically and financially. Talking about nothing else but reorganizing the whole cultural and communal forms of living, communal organizing and administrating. What is needed is a totally different world, nothing less. That's why I am extremely pessimistic that we or the next coming two generations will really go that way. I think they will just repeat the same old patterns and schemes that we just see collapsing. There is nothing new under the sun - except what has been forgotten. - Santayana __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-17-13, 06:10 PM	#18
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,670 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Any comments on the Chinese missile system and Turkey's deal, btw? __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-17-13, 07:55 PM	#21
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,670 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	More on topic, Turkey: WP reports that Ankara has disclosed identity of ten Israeli agents in Iran to Iranian authorities. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...45b_story.html I say since long that the Turks cannot be trusted, and that they play a double game . But if true, this act even by Erdoghan's underhanded standards would a rich. NATO and Washington need to draw consequences from this story. If the story is true, Turkey cannot be NATO member any longer, and should be thrown out, no matter formalities. Well. Should. The kicking-out will not happen, as we all can easily forsee. Obama loves Erdoghan. Obama tolerates a nuclear armed Iran just to not needing to take action about it. And he dislikes Netanyahu. Obama and the new Iranian smile-wolf in a sheep's fur will soon be the closest of penpals, you'll see. The EU, arabophile and anti-Israeli as it is, will not care for the Turkish treason, and will use it as an illustration of why Turkey more urgently than ever needs to become EU member. With allies like this, you'll soon may find your enemies to be the lesser evil - they are easier to be recognised as such. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-18-13, 07:17 AM	#23
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,670 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	That a defence is currently not needed should not make anyone believe that one could dismantle all defences. One should keep it up as a regional defence force for the North Atlantic region: North America, Europe. Cannot hurt to maintain a reserve. Whether that reserve indeed is stable, is another question. Against out-of-area operations I have been from all discussions on. I do not follow the American idea of turning NATO into auxiliary forces for globalized American action. I am all for taking the term NATO literally. All operations outside that area should be understood as national war operations by individual states with no obligation by official NATO to help, assist, support them. The alternative would be to form a military union of Europeans only, a NATO without Canada and the US. Realistic? Not in the forseeable time, I think. But possible that America's role in NATO erodes all by itself, due to financial constraints. The function of a reserve strictly is to be available when it is needed. It must not produce benefits and interests while waiting. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-18-13, 09:02 AM	#25
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,670 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Drones take over the air war within the forseeable future now, I think. The next field where I could imagine drones becoming the dominant platform, are naval forces. That could help against the personnel problem of reserve forces that you outlined. A very major step will be the shift from remote-controlled drones to autonomous drones. Only this will really adress the vulnerability of RC drones. I imagine the developing of such software is no easy task. What for the forseeable future will remain difficult to replace it by drones, is the boot on the ground. However, the opposing boot on the ground can be hampered by own air drones. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-17-13, 06:16 PM	#19
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,543 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Forgot to mentioned it every time we discuss economy and our debt. Well maybe it is a unattainable dream some of us have? Even Gene Roddenberry had it A world without money, as it is the world of Star trek. Markus

10-17-13, 07:59 PM	#22
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	But what is the future of NATO? I mean, now that the Soviet Union is no more and the likelihood of Russia storming across Germany has been relegated to Call of Duty Modern Warfare, aside from Kosovo NATO hasn't really got much in the way of a role in the current Europe.

10-18-13, 08:46 AM	#24
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	That is the problem, to maintain a decent reserve requires money that is simply not available. In some situations you can do it on the cheap, the Boneyard comes to mind, but in regards to ships and the like, it gets expensive over time to keep the units ready that they may be reactivated within a short period of time. Plus there's the difficulty of actually attracting people into the reserve forces to begin with, you can draw down standing forces and allocate a large portion of them to the reserves, but when it comes to getting new blood into the system, as Australia is showing, it's not that easy in the modern society where people would rather sit at an office chair than in the back of an APC (and I can't say I blame them), of course in a war time scenario there's always the draft but then you have training problems to deal with as well as a war time economy. A NATO without the US and Canada is very unlikely though, although the idea of an EU army has been floated time and again, I don't see any of the EU agreeing on something long enough to pass it through, especially when it comes to military sovereignty.

10-18-13, 07:15 PM	#28
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,543 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	^ Skybird I know I should have posted it here http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=207916 Funny you mentioned the dollars, earlier this evening I saw a person from a danish bank talking about the dollar, the central bank in USA buying lots of bonds(or what it's called) to keep the interest as low as possible and keep on "creating" new dollar note. Lets go back to what this thread is about. China's increasing interest in Africa, Middle east and South America and thereby pushing NATO and other western country aside. I which I could remember every word of an very interesting article I once read in a Swedish newspaper. It was about About China who had expanded its sphere of influence to including Africa and the Middle East and if I remember it South America. Markus

10-18-13, 11:05 PM	#29
periunder In the Brig Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 96 Downloads: 1 Uploads: 0	I'm not a fan of drones, It will gradually take more and more jobs away from career soldiers and people who have no other hope than join the military. Being in the military can be a dangerous occupation, but in the US the ratio of those killed to those wounded in action has shifted drastically in favor of actually surviving the war. Manufactured limbs and other impressive advances in our health industry also make the military a very sound financial employment opportunity in the US. There is no question the respect and government treatment of US personnel has skyrocketed since the 70's. Technology is the greatest threat to our working wages.