Is Obama Toast? Handicapping the 2012 Election - Page 2

CCIP · 11-03-11, 02:43 PM

lol

As for Obama, I was tired of all the portrayals of him as either some demi-Jesus of America's Hope on the one hand, or the socialist he-who-must-always-be-named on the other. He's neither, and what I think most people failed to see when he was going in was that he was something far more banal - a fast-dealing Chicago politician. And that is exactly how he's acted in his time in office, no more no less.

JU_88 · 11-03-11, 02:47 PM

Well im not American but if I was, I think the Republicans would actually get my vote if Ron Paul was running, I dont like that hes a pro-lifer, but other than that, the guy makes quite alot of sense to me.
But Id rather have Obama than some moron like Sarah Palin.
But like I said, Im not American - so good luck with it.

AVGWarhawk · 11-03-11, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCIP

lol

As for Obama, I was tired of all the portrayals of him as either some demi-Jesus of America's Hope on the one hand, or the socialist he-who-must-always-be-named on the other. He's neither, and what I think most people failed to see when he was going in was that he was something far more banal - a fast-dealing Chicago politician. And that is exactly how he's acted in his time in office, no more no less.

It will not matter how he portrays himself in the upcoming campaign which he has kicked off. He will not win on merit. He will not win for his current administration. He will not loose to any Republican candidate However, he will win.

AVGWarhawk · 11-03-11, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JU_88

Well im not American but if I was, I think the Republicans would actually get my vote if Ron Paul was running, I dont like that hes a pro-lifer, but other than that, the guy makes quite alot of sense to me.
But Id rather have Obama than some moron like Sarah Palin.
But like I said, Im not American - so good luck with it.

Ron Paul has no chance.

mapuc · 11-03-11, 03:45 PM

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Isn't it indifferent wich president that sit in the white house in the next period?

This coming president have-to say it nicely- a real tuff job to do and he/she have to do something that would make him/her the most hated person in USA.

Raise taxes, cut military costs, cut other things (in wich I can't remember the name)

Markus

Platapus · 11-03-11, 04:36 PM

Well according to some political theories (which I happen to believe in) in order for Obama to be defeated in the next election two distinct and different circumstances must occur:

1. The voting public must be sufficiently dissatisfied with Obama

and

2. The voting public must be presented with an alternative candidate that offers a significant difference.

Without both of these occurring, the incumbent stands a very good chance of being re-elected.

Consider the 2004 elections. Bush's approval rating was very low and his disapproval rating was high. This satisfied the first requirement.

However, the Democrats, in the form of Kerry, failed to demonstrate that Kerry would be a significant change (improvement). Kerry ran on mostly an "I am not Bush" platform.

Not being the incumbent is rarely enough for the voting public to choose to nor re-elect the incumbent. The result: Bush was re-elected

Fast forward to 2012

Obama's approval rating may be low and his disapproval rating may be high by the time of the elections.

But is the Republican party able to field a candidate that offers the voting public a significant improvement? That is the question that will govern this election. If the Republicans fall into the same trap as the Democrats did in 2004 and run a 2012 candidate on the "I am not Obama" platform, Obama may have a good chance of being re-elected.

Personally, as a Recovering Republican and an Extreme Moderate Independent, I have not seen the GOP satisfy the second part of the theory.....yet.

It is still early and we are still stuck with the seven dwarfs fighting among themselves, but soon the GOP will have to decide on who they want to represent their party in the next election and start building a platform that consists of more than "I am not Obama".

And by soon, I think by the time of the next election which is on Tuesday.

. Republican primaries start in Jan 2012. Not a lot of time!

I will be waiting and watching as I am sure the rest of us will be.

TLAM Strike · 11-03-11, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

...cut other things (in wich I can't remember the name)

I think the name you are looking for is: "The Bill of Rights".

1480 · 11-03-11, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

Well according to some political theories (which I happen to believe in) in order for Obama to be defeated in the next election two distinct and different circumstances must occur:

1. The voting public must be sufficiently dissatisfied with Obama

I totally agree with your second premise.

But instead of giving an example, could you define sufficiently dissatisfied.

Not to rip it apart but my definition may be a bit different.

breadcatcher101 · 11-03-11, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JU_88

Well im not American but if I was, I think the Republicans would actually get my vote if Ron Paul was running, I dont like that hes a pro-lifer, but other than that, the guy makes quite alot of sense to me.
But Id rather have Obama than some moron like Sarah Palin.
But like I said, Im not American - so good luck with it.

We have a lot of non-Americans that vote, so please...join the crowd.

AVGWarhawk · 11-03-11, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Consider the 2004 elections. Bush's approval rating was very low and his disapproval rating was high. This satisfied the first requirement.

Consider a sitting President is not normally voted out office during war.

Platapus · 11-03-11, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1480

But instead of giving an example, could you define sufficiently dissatisfied.

If I could define that accurately and predictably, I would not be working at the company I am now in. LoL

Sufficiently dissatisfied is the tricky thing.

JU_88 · 11-03-11, 07:13 PM

Well who ever wins better start sorting out the Frederal deficit before it breaks America.... and drags the rest of us down with you.
Bush Jr carried out quite a shopping spree and mostly on a chinese tab too. Obama so far has done next to nothing to help the situation!

mapuc · 11-03-11, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TLAM Strike

I think the name you are looking for is: "The Bill of Rights".

No, it's in the social benefits and hospital.

But thanks anyway.

Markus

mapuc · 11-03-11, 08:04 PM

Here's a question to you.

Would you like to be the next president for the US??

If you do nothing to the debt and other things-people gonna hate you

If you do something about it and I presume it's some tuff decision you have to make-people gonna hate you.

I would not.

Offcourse the president do not have to do all the job.

Markus

1480 · 11-03-11, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

If I could define that accurately and predictably, I would not be working at the company I am now in. LoL

Sufficiently dissatisfied is the tricky thing.

Kind of like "reasonable suspicion."

I see the angle you are working and your argument is plausible, more plausible than I have heard by some of the pundits.

The strange part of all of this: as Romney has kept silent this past week, his poll numbers increased.

11-03-11, 02:43 PM	#16
CCIP Navy Seal Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Waterloo, Canada Posts: 8,700 Downloads: 29 Uploads: 2	lol As for Obama, I was tired of all the portrayals of him as either some demi-Jesus of America's Hope on the one hand, or the socialist he-who-must-always-be-named on the other. He's neither, and what I think most people failed to see when he was going in was that he was something far more banal - a fast-dealing Chicago politician. And that is exactly how he's acted in his time in office, no more no less. __________________ There are only forty people in the world and five of them are hamburgers. -Don Van Vliet (aka Captain Beefheart)

11-03-11, 03:45 PM	#20
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 18,209 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Please correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't it indifferent wich president that sit in the white house in the next period? This coming president have-to say it nicely- a real tuff job to do and he/she have to do something that would make him/her the most hated person in USA. Raise taxes, cut military costs, cut other things (in wich I can't remember the name) Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

11-03-11, 04:36 PM	#21
Platapus Fleet Admiral Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 18,995 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 0	Well according to some political theories (which I happen to believe in) in order for Obama to be defeated in the next election two distinct and different circumstances must occur: 1. The voting public must be sufficiently dissatisfied with Obama and 2. The voting public must be presented with an alternative candidate that offers a significant difference. Without both of these occurring, the incumbent stands a very good chance of being re-elected. Consider the 2004 elections. Bush's approval rating was very low and his disapproval rating was high. This satisfied the first requirement. However, the Democrats, in the form of Kerry, failed to demonstrate that Kerry would be a significant change (improvement). Kerry ran on mostly an "I am not Bush" platform. Not being the incumbent is rarely enough for the voting public to choose to nor re-elect the incumbent. The result: Bush was re-elected Fast forward to 2012 Obama's approval rating may be low and his disapproval rating may be high by the time of the elections. But is the Republican party able to field a candidate that offers the voting public a significant improvement? That is the question that will govern this election. If the Republicans fall into the same trap as the Democrats did in 2004 and run a 2012 candidate on the "I am not Obama" platform, Obama may have a good chance of being re-elected. Personally, as a Recovering Republican and an Extreme Moderate Independent, I have not seen the GOP satisfy the second part of the theory.....yet. It is still early and we are still stuck with the seven dwarfs fighting among themselves, but soon the GOP will have to decide on who they want to represent their party in the next election and start building a platform that consists of more than "I am not Obama". And by soon, I think by the time of the next election which is on Tuesday. . Republican primaries start in Jan 2012. Not a lot of time! I will be waiting and watching as I am sure the rest of us will be. __________________ abusus non tollit usum - A right should NOT be withheld from people on the basis that some tend to abuse that right.

11-03-11, 08:04 PM	#29
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 18,209 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Here's a question to you. Would you like to be the next president for the US?? If you do nothing to the debt and other things-people gonna hate you If you do something about it and I presume it's some tuff decision you have to make-people gonna hate you. I would not. Offcourse the president do not have to do all the job. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

11-03-11, 02:47 PM	#17
JU_88 Silent Hunter Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: UK Posts: 3,750 Downloads: 11 Uploads: 0	Well im not American but if I was, I think the Republicans would actually get my vote if Ron Paul was running, I dont like that hes a pro-lifer, but other than that, the guy makes quite alot of sense to me. But Id rather have Obama than some moron like Sarah Palin. But like I said, Im not American - so good luck with it.

11-03-11, 07:13 PM	#27
JU_88 Silent Hunter Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: UK Posts: 3,750 Downloads: 11 Uploads: 0	Well who ever wins better start sorting out the Frederal deficit before it breaks America.... and drags the rest of us down with you. Bush Jr carried out quite a shopping spree and mostly on a chinese tab too. Obama so far has done next to nothing to help the situation!