Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study.

[DeepIron]

I really wonder if people truly understand how dependent the Human Race is on petroleum? Consider plastics... petroleum-based products... lubricants and a number of other polymer products are derived from crude oil...

Driving a semi, I have high hopes for biodiesel, but there's a long way to go to meet the sheer quantity demands of the trucking industry, let alone any other diesel-fueled transports...

[STEED]

Well most of us here are as for the rest of the world..................

They say the sh*t will hit the fan around 2030 but are they taking in to account there figures will have changed in five years? Look at China and India who want there slice of cake and telling everyone else you had your slice now it's our time.

[DeepIron]

Look at China and India who want there slice of cake and telling everyone else you had your slice now it's our time.

It is said that last century was the "American" century and this one belongs to the Chinese...

What drives me nutz, is that instead of a war in the Middle East, which I'm sure has at least *something* to do with oil, we could be spending the $$$ to further alternative energy and re-usable resources. Not furthering a futile dependancy on a finite resource like oil...

Think about the research that the $$$ spent fighting in Iraq the last 4 years could have funded...

Meanwhile, the Japanese are moving steadily ahead with alternative technologies while the Big 3 get their collective SUV a**es kicked...

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by DeepIron

I really wonder if people truly understand how dependent the Human Race is on petroleum? Consider plastics... petroleum-based products... lubricants and a number of other polymer products are derived from crude oil...

Compared to the ammount of oil that gets burned for energy production and for keeping vehicles on the gorund, in the air and on the oceasn running, the ammount of oil used for the kind of productions you mentioned is harmlessly small. I have no numbers and I do not care to search for it now, but I remember to have read like this repeatedly. If somebody says it would be not more than 5%, I would believe it, unprepared as I am right now.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

The list of yours is not complete, of course. Add vital things like fertilizers, pharmacies, insecticides to it, and you are in the realm of not only items of comfort, but essential items of survival for millions and hundreds of millions of people. the list of horror getting opened without oil starts with mass starvations, leads over epidemics caused by insects, and ends at contient-wide wars with all the grim terror they bring. and that's just what I can come up with when giving it only a shallow thought.

[DeepIron]

the ammount of oil used for the kind of productions you mentioned is harmlessly small...

In a quantitative sense, yes. However, that small amount certainly plays a vital role. for instance, I can't imagine fresh meat at the supermarket being wrapped in anything else but plastics...

The list of yours is not complete, of course. Add vital things like fertilizers, pharmacies, insecticides to it, and you are in the realm of not only items of comfort, but essential items of survival for millions and hundreds of millions of people. the list of horror getting opened without oil starts with mass starvations, leads over epidemics caused by insects, and ends at contient-wide wars with all the grim terror they bring. and that's just what I can come up with when giving it only a shallow thought.

Precisely. Petroleum is so integrated into our daily lives, that the loss of oil resources will most certainly have a much more devastating and far reaching effect than currently thought, IMO.

If we don't nuke ourselves into non-existence, we'll have to contend with the depletion of oil and natural gas reserves...

[Skybird]

what I meant is this: while oil as a ressource for energy production will become more unaffordable for many, the unisuitrial supply to maintain the priduction of the goods you and me mentioned is so small that there is little reason to worry about that: there will be enough oil for these purposes for long time to come. Only the far bigger quantities needed for energy will become rare - in the understanding of extremely pricey. when I said one year ago I expect the price for one arel of oil going beyond 100 dollar soon, people here laughed about me. Now it is broadcasted on every TV channel, an dporbbaly nobody laughs anymore. So here is my next news: it will not stop at 100 dollars. In 2030 I could imagine you need to multiply that by a number between 2 and 5, assuming there are not significant events in current global economy trends that will completely revamp the scenario.

What that means for the average household, you can imagine.

there will be oil. Bot less and lesser nations as well as private people will be able to afford it. And I do not bet my money on the US being one belonging to those with the longest breath. just look at the monumental deficits, debts - and the immense dollar reserves of China. It's more reasonable to assume that America needs to fear a nightmare. Economically duelling it out over oil with China will see the US as the looser, I'm sure. And a military victory in case of a war confrontation, also is no longer a given, for various reasons.

[AG124]

Is there any danger (in such a future scenario as the one currently being discussed) that the United States would attack and take over Canada in order to seize our oil (and maybe our fresh water) supplies? After doing some light research, it seems that Canada is currently the only nation with any positive forecast in regards to increased oil production and the discovery of more reserves (mostly in Alberta, but some in the NWT and off the east coast of Newfoundland as well) Plus, it would be fairly easy to crush militarily, especially by the US. I'm not trying to provoke anti-American sentiment here or anything (I am certainly not anti-American at all), but in a desperate world where oil prices are skyrocketing and supply is dwindling, visions of a scenario loosley similar to that in Clive Cussler's idiotic novel Night Probe are coming to mind.

[DeepIron]

Is there any danger (in such a future scenario as the one currently being discussed) that the United States would attack and take over Canada in order to seize our oil (and maybe our fresh water) supplies?

Yes. As soon we complete our assimilation of Mexico for it's abundant supply of burritos... We're coming after you, eh?

Originally Posted by DeepIron

Yes. As soon we complete our assimilation of Mexico... We're coming after you, eh?

Why stop in North America. Many European countries thrive under the blanket of our protection. NATO is little more than a US fifthdom.

[DeepIron]

Why stop in North America. Many European countries thrive under the blanket of our protection. NATO is little more than a US fifthdom.

Yeah just wait until there's a global shortage of sheep! Ewe won't be safe...:rotfl:

WG, did you mean fifedom?

Originally Posted by DeepIron

Yeah just wait until there's a global shortage of sheep! Ewe won't be safe...:rotfl:

WG, did you mean fifedom?

More spelling issues. The nuns tried.

[DeepIron]

I thought the concept of a 'fifthdom' was kinda cool... You know, like 'fifth column' strategies... The US could covertly control the world by spending billions of $$$ in the the guise of "foreign aid" to sway other national leaders secretly to our side... and then....

Oh, wait a moment... we already do that...

[AG124]

Sorry about that - I didn't mean to direct the thread in this direction. I'm actually not so worried about a US takeover as much as I am about the decline of our entire society and the end of life as we know it. That was the whole reason I responded to the thread in the first place, but I didn't and don't know what else to say on the subject - the probability of a severe oil shock feels concrete and serious, but also like an out-of-control freight train heading barreling towards a washed-out bridge with no way (for me at least) to stop it. Quite depressing to talk about, but I don't feel like letting the subject die.

[DeepIron]

When the whole "petroleum resources" thing collapses, it's probaby gonna take all of us out anyway...

What will prove to be interesting in the meanwhile, is the wrangling over the real estate under the (Soon to be former) North Polar Icecap... It's said that there is some significant oil geology up there...

Originally Posted by DeepIron

When the whole "petroleum resources" thing collapses, it's probaby gonna take all of us out anyway...

What will prove to be interesting in the meanwhile, is the wrangling over the real estate under the (Soon to be former) North Polar Icecap... It's said that there is some significant oil geology up there...

Interesting concept. Does it mean that at one time our poles were equatoral. Or, does it mean that fossil fuels aren't so fossil after all?

:hmm: