Saving private Three

[fatty]

Originally Posted by JALU3

I once wrote a thread, somewhere, I forget, on another board, that looked at the statistical chances of death while a servicemember in the US Armed Forces . . . The statistical risk of death per 100,000 (staticians average) was higher then national rate of homicide but lower then say dying in an auto collision.

And depending on the occupation there are other, and some more hazardous, jobs outside of the military with the same fatality rate.

I need to look this up, as I wrote it up a year ago, and can't find it . . . give me time.

That would be interesting to know, but I just wanted to make clear that I was assuming that the deaths of any two coalition soldiers were already given, as if God came down and said "okay, I'm going to choose two random soldiers to take up to heaven." If we have 168,000 coalition servicemen/women (source: wiki) and assume that one must die. Out of brother X and Y, each brother has a 1 in 168,000 chance of being the one to die. If brother X dies and another death becomes inevitable, then brother Y has another 1 in 168,000 chance of dying. But because brother X already died, you encounter compound probability and must multiply the odds like I said, since it relies on the first condition of brother X's death to be fulfilled. So the chances of two men from the same family dying is about 1 in 28,224,000,000. On the other hand, the chances of a third brother dying is a further 1 in 168,000 - bringing you to a pretty slim 1 in 4,741,632,000,000,000.

It's also possible I don't know anything.

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by bradclark1

If I knew the cars would be aiming for me and I still decided to cross I accepted the risk. That isn't tragedy, it's a calculated risk.

I'm not being callous. I can understand why the brothers joined up but they understood the risks, especially if they were combat arms. There is nothing to feel depressed about. They volunteered. Have a drink to celebrate their life not mourn their loss. They died doing what they wanted to do.

Amen

[Wim Libaers]

Originally Posted by fatty

That would be interesting to know, but I just wanted to make clear that I was assuming that the deaths of any two coalition soldiers were already given, as if God came down and said "okay, I'm going to choose two random soldiers to take up to heaven." If we have 168,000 coalition servicemen/women (source: wiki) and assume that one must die. Out of brother X and Y, each brother has a 1 in 168,000 chance of being the one to die. If brother X dies and another death becomes inevitable, then brother Y has another 1 in 168,000 chance of dying. But because brother X already died, you encounter compound probability and must multiply the odds like I said, since it relies on the first condition of brother X's death to be fulfilled. So the chances of two men from the same family dying is about 1 in 28,224,000,000. On the other hand, the chances of a third brother dying is a further 1 in 168,000 - bringing you to a pretty slim 1 in 4,741,632,000,000,000.

It's also possible I don't know anything.

Yes, but that doesn't mean the other guy would be safe now. His chance of dying is still 168,000, which is also the chance that all three brothers die if you know that 2 of the three are already dead.

[Heibges]

This kind of thing has happened many times in the history of the United States Army.

Remember, before the rise of the Regular Army after WWII, most of our fighting in big wars was done by National Guardsman. Those units were filled with fathers, sons, brothers, and cousins etc. National Guard units continue to have family members in them. This is especially true of those Guard units in more rural areas. And since many Guard units evolved from local militia units, this has been true for a long time.

I was in the same Guard unit, that my father was in during WWII. And during the Civil War, this same unit was one of the most feared in the Union Army. The Georgia Legislature voted to dig a trench around Vermont and let if float out to sea.

[JALU3]

Originally Posted by JALU3

I once wrote a thread, somewhere, I forget, on another board, that looked at the statistical chances of death while a servicemember in the US Armed Forces . . . The statistical risk of death per 100,000 (staticians average) was higher then national rate of homicide but lower then say dying in an auto collision.

And depending on the occupation there are other, and some more hazardous, jobs outside of the military with the same fatality rate.

I need to look this up, as I wrote it up a year ago, and can't find it . . . give me time.

OK, Found some interesting articles and links:

Here are the results (as of AUG2006):

• 3.92 per 1000, is the Mortality/Fatality Rate for Servicemembers serving within the Nation-State of Iraq.
• 8.42 per 1000, is the Mortality/Fatality Rate for the general population
• 29.2 per 100000, is the Mortality/Fatality Rate for Farming/Fishing/Forestry workers
• 4.7 per 100000, is the Mortality/Fatality Rate for Servicemembers.

Here are the links which I found this information at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...082500940.html
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...casualties.htm
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0922494.html
http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/cfch0005.pdf

And slighty off topic . . . here is an article in support of quikclot:
http://www.engineering.ucsb.edu/arti...fe_saving_sand
This and other things have reduced the fatality rate of injured soldiers compared to in past conflicts.