Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

If you had asked me 6-8 month ago whether I believed in an Ukrainian victory-I would have said: Yes I believe they will win.

Since then this confidence has faded and if you ask me today I would say: I truly doubt it.

Markus

[Dargo]

That all depends on how you define winning on the moment Ukraine still holds and can if nothing terrible happens prevent Russia to reach its strategic goals the longer Ukraine holds the more they can get the needed tools, ammunition. Ukraine does not need to retake all ground back to win, most of the Luhansk and Donbas oblast are either destroyed or plundered by Russia the millions of mines laid in those oblasts would take decades to clear. This war will last many years, maybe it will result in a situation like the Korea war (South Korea does it vastly better than North Korea) this will still be no lose for Ukraine the second army of the world would be the loser in this situation. More than 80% of Ukraine will be a strong partner in the West and profit more from this than under Russian rule. Even with this so called great Russian war economy Russian military offensive has no breakthrough Russia losses so much on the moment they only can replace what they lost with Ukraine shortages that is a great win for Ukraine they win in the air, on the sea and can can hold the lines with lesser loses than Russia suffers.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dowly]

Article about the first known Finnish KIA in Ukraine:
https://yle.fi/a/74-20075975

Few things of note: He is not the one who's story I translated before, I have seen that person online after this article was published.

In a documentary about him that I am translating (slowly) atm, there is a snippet of a video I believe I have posted in this thread of two Finns retreating with one of them wounded. However, it is not made clear if Kasper is the one filming the video or not.

[Skybird]

The industrial, economic, agricultural, infrastrutural and energy-related damage all is taken by Ukraine. The territorial losses as well. In case of a seize-fire a Crimea held by Russia will allow them to control most of Ukrainian air space as well, and threaten it. Russia then will also move far-ranging anti ship missiles to it and threaten shippoing routes again. Key regions of the heavy industrial heart of Ukraine will have been gone, eiether d estroye dor occupoied by Russia, one fith of the territory will have gone, maybe more. The direct financial and economic losses and follow-on losses of Ukraine are in the trillion dollar range. One quarter of the population will have fled from Ukraine then. Those staying will be traumatized for the rest of their lives.

"Winning"...? Ukraine may or may not survive. Winning it will not. Ukraine will be a severely injured country at best.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The industrial, economic, agricultural, infrastrutural and energy-related damage all is taken by Ukraine. The territorial losses as well. In case of a seize-fire a Crimea held by Russia will allow them to control most of Ukrainian air space as well, and threaten it. Russia then will also move far-raning anti ship missiles to it and thjreaten shippoing routes again. The financial and economc losses of Ukraine are in the trillion dollar range. One quarter of the population will have fled from Ukraine then. Those staying will be trakmatiozed for the rest of their lives.


"Winning"...?

Given the possible alternative of losing her independency to Russia? Yeah, that would be a win.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The industrial, economic, agricultural, infrastrutural and energy-related damage all is taken by Ukraine. The territorial losses as well. In case of a seize-fire a Crimea held by Russia will allow them to control most of Ukrainian air space as well, and threaten it. Russia then will also move far-raning anti ship missiles to it and thjreaten shippoing routes again. The financial and economc losses of Ukraine are in the trillion dollar range. One quarter of the population will have fled from Ukraine then. Those staying will be trakmatiozed for the rest of their lives.


"Winning"...?

This scenario is Ukraine agreeing to surrender that will not happen Ukraine will never agree to this kind of agreement. "energy-related damage all is taken by Ukraine" no on the moment Ukraine export its energy to Europe in a war. Russia lost its largest market western investments that will go into Ukraine, not back to Russia. Russia is not safe to invest thanks to Putin, even after a ceasefire Russia stays a North Korea. On the moment it is destroying its economy it can not like it could not after the fall of the USSR build it up without the West. The only growth we see in Russia is its war economy, not its public economy total different economies the war economy cannibalizes its public economy. Russia stops its refining and export for months you really think Russia is doing great if you stop refining Russia can not start it up without the West. All oil production was in the hands of the West with Western knowledge and equipment that can only be run, repaired by western companies. Russia is going back to the soviet time that went so good for them the Russian state now taxes Russian companies on the base that the state determines their revenue (planned economy) even if they have a lower revenue they have to pay the determined tax by the state that will go swell accord the soviet plan. The only conclusion is that they do this because funds are beginning to run low, this is how great the Russian economy is. I can make fun about the egg or fish price OK the shops are full but if your people can not afford basic food it is soviet time all over only without the cues down the hill. It is a war that Russia cannot afford to win the cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China. It has become clear that resource rich Russia has become much poorer than its former Soviet neighbours such as Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Hungary, who pursued the route of European integration.

Btw Ukraine shoots on this moment 2 to 3 times more shells than a couple of weeks ago.

[Jimbuna]

Russia attempts to block maritime corridor established by Ukraine

Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the UN, Serhii Kyslytsia, stated that Russia continues its attempts to block the maritime corridor, but Ukraine has successfully restored it, according to Ukrinform.

"Russia's attempts to blackmail the international community by withdrawing from the initiative have failed. However, despite the war, Ukraine has launched a maritime corridor and continues to enhance its efficiency," said Kyslytsia.

The Permanent Representative provided export data, stating that nearly 30 million tons of goods were shipped from the ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Chornomorsk to 42 countries worldwide.

"In February, over 8 million tons of goods were successfully exported. Agricultural products account for 80% of shipments from the ports. In fact, the export from Ukrainian Black Sea ports has reached a level comparable to that before the full-scale invasion," he added.
According to Kyslytsia, ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet no longer dare to appear in the north-western part of the Black Sea due to their decreasing numbers.

"All that Russia has left is to launch missiles, attempting to intimidate Ukraine and our trade partners," stated Kyslytsia.

In conclusion, the Permanent Representative emphasized the strengthening of Ukrainian port air defense.

Following Russia's withdrawal from the grain corridor, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed to Turkiye and the UN to extend the grain initiative in a trilateral format. The government noted that Ukraine plans to insure ships traveling through the grain corridor.

In August 2023, Ukraine opened a maritime corridor primarily for the departure of civilian vessels stranded in ports since the start of the full-scale war with Russia.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...d963db01&ei=22

[Jimbuna]

A lonely radio nerd. A poet. Vladimir Putin's crackdown sweeps up ordinary Russians

A lonely man jailed for criticizing the government on his ham radio. A poet assaulted by police after he recited a poem objecting to Russia’s war in Ukraine. A low-profile woman committed to a psychiatric facility for condemning the invasion on social media.

President Vladimir Putin’s 24 years in power are almost certain to be extended six more by this month's presidential election. That leadership has transformed Russia. A country that tolerated some dissent is now one that ruthlessly suppresses it.

Along with opposition politicians, independent journalists and human rights activists, ordinary Russians have been increasingly swept up in a crackdown reminiscent of the Soviet era. Some human rights advocates compare the scale of the clampdown to the repression from the 1960s to the 1980s, when dissidents were prosecuted for “anti-Soviet propaganda.”

THREE YEARS IN PRISON FOR A RADIO AMATEUR

Vladimir Rumyantsev led a lonely life. The 63-year-old worked stoking the furnace at a wood-processing plant in Vologda, a city about 400 kilometers (250 miles) northeast of Moscow. He had no family apart from an estranged brother.

To entertain himself, he bought a couple of radio transmitters online and started broadcasting audiobooks and radio plays that he had liked, along with YouTube videos and podcasts by journalists critical of the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine. He also shared posts on his social network page in which independent media and bloggers talked about Russia's attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.

Rumyantsev did not intend to reach a radio audience. According to his lawyer, Sergei Tikhonov, he listened on headphones in his own apartment.

In a letter from behind bars published by Russia’s prominent rights group OVD-Info, Rumyantsev said “tinkering with and improving” radios has been his hobby since Soviet times, and he decided to set up self-broadcasting as an alternative to Russia's state TV, which was increasingly airing “patriotic hysteria.” To him, it seemed a better technological solution than Bluetooth speakers because the radio could reach everywhere in his apartment, he said in the letter.

But his social media activity eventually put him on the authorities’ radar, and they discovered his radio frequency. In July 2022, police arrested Rumyantsev, accusing him of “spreading knowingly false information” about the Russian army — a criminal charge authorities introduced shortly after invading Ukraine.

Rumyantsev rejected the charges and insisted on his constitutional right to freely collect and disseminate information, Tikhonov says. The law under which Rumyantsev was charged effectively criminalized any expression about the war that deviated from the Kremlin’s official narrative. In December 2022, he was convicted and sentenced to three years in prison.

Tikhonov visits Rumyantsev every so often in a penal colony about 200 kilometers away (125 miles) from Vologda and described him as “calm and resilient,” even though incarceration has taken its toll on his health.

He said Rumyantsev deliberately chose to speak out against the war and refuses to apply for parole as “it is unacceptable for him to admit guilt, even as a formality.”

Russian media reported on the case against Rumyantsev when he was in pretrial detention, and he started getting many letters of support, Tikhonov said. Some supporters put money in his prison account, while others have sent supplies — mostly food, but also books and personal hygiene items, according to the lawyer.

“In addition to making the man’s life easier, this (gave him) an understanding that he is not alone and there are many people who share the same values,” Tikhonov said.

ARREST AND VIOLENCE AFTER A POETRY RECITAL

Artyom Kamardin worked as an engineer, but poetry is his passion.

He was a regular at monthly recitals in the center of Moscow, near the monument to Soviet poet Vladimir Mayakovsky. The recitals continued even after Russia invaded Ukraine. One was billed as an “anti-mobilization” recital several days after Putin announced a partial call-up into the army in September 2022.

Kamardin, 33, recited a poem condemning Russia-backed insurgents in eastern Ukraine. The next day, police with a search warrant burst into the apartment he shared with his wife Alexandra Popova and another friend, and took the poet into custody.

Police beat Kamardin, Popova and their flatmate, and raped the poet, both his wife and his lawyer said. All three filed a formal complaint with the authorities, and the allegations were eventually investigated. The authorities concluded that police acted “within the law," the Russian news outlet Sota reported, citing the lawyer without providing further details.

For the couple, the experience was so traumatic that they “still can’t openly talk to each other” about what happened, Popova said in an interview with The Associated Press.

In addition to Kamardin, police swept up two other poets who didn’t know him, nor each other. They charged all three with making calls undermining national security and inciting hatred. All three were convicted and sentenced to prison terms.

Kamardin got the longest — seven years.

“No one should be in prison for words, for poetry,” Popova said. She said she believes that her husband’s poem “insulted someone so much that they decided to scourge a defiant poet.”

The couple got married while Kamardin was in pretrial detention.

INVOLUNTARY TREATMENT IN A PSYCHIATRIC HOSPITAL FOR WAR CRITICISM

Unlike dozens of other Russians convicted over speaking out against the war in Ukraine and handed prison terms, St. Petersburg resident Viktoria Petrova is spending her days in a psychiatric facility. In December, she was sentenced to six months of involuntary treatment over a social media post condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Her lawyer has said that doctors can keep Petrova there for as long as they want and extend the term indefinitely once the six months run out. So the ruling “can’t be considered good news,” Anastasia Pilipenko wrote in her blog on the messaging app Telegram.

Petrova was arrested in May 2022 and placed in pretrial detention over a post on Russian social network VK, in which she criticized Russian officials for what the Kremlin insists on calling “a special military operation" in Ukraine, the lawyer told Russian independent news site Mediazona.

In her Telegram blog, Pilipenko has described Petrova, 30, as “an ordinary girl” who “merely shared her thoughts on social media."

“Ordinary life, ordinary gym, a cat. Ordinary job at an unremarkable office,” the lawyer wrote.

The court ordered a psychiatric evaluation of Petrova after other inmates of her pretrial detention center reported that she kept up her “antiwar propaganda,” Pilipenko said in an interview with a local news outlet. These evaluations are common but in a rare turn, Petrova was declared mentally incompetent.

The lawyer argued that it wasn’t true and her client’s words have been misconstrued, but to no avail — Petrova was committed to a psychiatric facility.

In November, Pilipenko reported abuse by facility staff, saying that they forced a strip search of the woman by male workers, pushed her around, strapped her to the hospital bed and injected her with medication that left her unable to to speak for two days.

“This should not happen to ‘political (prisoners),’ criminals, mentally ill people, healthy people — anyone,” Pilipenko wrote on Telegram. The facility didn't comment on the allegations, but shortly after she spoke out about it, Pilipenko wrote, the abuse stopped.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...915ee59e&ei=26

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dowly

Given the possible alternative of losing her independency to Russia? Yeah, that would be a win.

No, its a loss, compared to industrial, economic and territorial integrity of before 2014.

Trillions in coins lost or needed to rebuild whats left. Next war with Russia as certain as night follows day.

I dont define that as a "win". Its mere survival for the time being. Just barely. It will last for a moment, and not longer.

[Jimbuna]

Another 1/2 years tops and it could well be a case of survival for Ukraine.

[Skybird]

Putin's plan for a castrated Ukraine.


https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de


The Wall Street Journal article is behind a paywall. This translated German article refers to it and summarizes it.

[Dargo]

The $1 Trillion Race to Rebuild Ukraine Is Slowly Getting Going

The momentum may be with Russia, but politicians, executives and investors are already eying the biggest contract bonanza since at least World War II. As orders for its backup electricity generators surged in Ukraine, Turkish company Aksa Power Generation finally dispatched a dedicated manager to Kyiv. Salih Komurcu’s job, though, wasn’t just to oversee the current business in the war-hit country. It was also about what happens when the bombs eventually stop. The situation on the front line offers no sense of when or how Russia’s war against its neighbor might end. Ukrainian setbacks have darkened the mood in Kyiv of late. But a growing phalanx of companies is gradually increasing its presence on the ground with the prospect of the biggest investment opportunity since at least World War II when it does. Governments, executives and investors are positioning themselves in anticipation of a reconstruction that the European Investment Bank estimates could amount to more than $1 trillion of public and private capital. Adjusted for inflation, that’s more than five times as big as the US-funded Marshall Plan that powered the industrial renaissance in Europe following Germany’s defeat. A look at the rebuilding activity across Ukraine — even with fighting in its third year — gives an idea of what the large-scale effort may look like. Turkish companies are restoring bridges and roads, while providing energy generators and mobile hospitals, hoping they will have an edge when the competition for big-ticket contracts gets going. Little of it so far, though, is for the longer term and more patching battle scars.

Looking further out, German and Austrian companies are planning ventures in infrastructure and defense, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is waiting for working groups for “pre-project planning,” while Denmark has so far donated €120 million ($130 million) to rebuild the shipbuilding hub of Mykolaiv. “Everyone is building their circles,” said Komurcu, Aksa’s representative in the Ukrainian capital since November. “I want to be in the middle of it, among the people who were here in advance — and knowing everyone.” Where the rebuilding takes place will show what the shape of a future Ukraine might look like. Billions of dollars are slated for the swathe of the country controlled by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government, but about 18% of Ukraine is currently occupied by Russian forces. The map of Ukraine will depend on how much of that territory is taken back by Kyiv, and when and where more than a quarter of the country’s prewar population will opt to live. About 3.7 million citizens still remain internally displaced, nearly 6.5 million have fled abroad and millions of others live under Russian occupation. An estimated 156,000 square kilometers (60,231 square miles) — an area almost twice the size of Austria — have been affected by mines and other munitions, according to Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko.

For those reasons, the man in charge of the rebuilding project in Ukraine said he is unable to yet paint a picture of the shape of his nation once the war ends. Questions also include how to guarantee the Russian aggressors won’t return should there be some sort of peace accord and how a country plagued by corruption will process the incoming aid. “We have a chance to rebuild better than it was in the USSR,” Mustafa Nayyem, head of the State Infrastructure and Reconstruction Development Agency, said in his office in Kyiv. “A kind of a machine that will work — confident and transparent — when the funds come.” For now, Ukraine is struggling to get aid to support its flagging war effort let alone rebuild the country. A breakthrough came at the start of February when Hungary dropped its opposition to the EU’s €50 billion aid package. But on the ground, work is being done to keep the country running and also gear up for the reconstruction. Ukrainian energy firms have patched up battered infrastructure and agricultural companies are restoring silos and transit routes. The biggest steelmaker, Metinvest BV, estimates that once the large-scale reconstruction starts, some 3.5 million tons of steel will be needed to restore housing and social infrastructure over five to 10 years. The company says it’s ready to meet that demand.

German companies are following their government, which is supporting Ukraine bilaterally. Defense giant Rheinmetall AG announced plans in February to set up a venture in Ukraine to produce much needed 155mm artillery ammunition. Building materials manufacturer Fixit has been putting up a new production site in the west of Ukraine since last year, while chemical company Bayer AG has announced investments in seeds production. Waagner-Biro Bridge Systems, an Austrian company that makes modular steel overpasses that span rivers and valleys, already started some production at a site in western Ukraine. Chief Executive Officer Richard Kerschbaumer said in an interview last year that “there will be plenty of work for decades.” Given where the money will come from, US and European companies are likely to get the lion’s share of the contracts when they come. Turkey, though, is pushing ahead in the meantime. Turkish building contractors have completed 70 projects in Ukraine over the two years of war that were worth around $1 billion, Turkish Trade Minister Omer Bolat said earlier this year. The biggest of them, Onur Group, is repairing blown-up bridges, such as the one at Irpin on the outskirts of Kyiv.

Teaming with South Korea’s Samsung C&T Corp., Onur Group was also building mobile hospitals in Ukraine. The company eventually wants to resume redevelopment of the Dnipro International Airport along with some highway projects. “We’ve got more than 4,000 pieces of machinery here and we’re committed to Ukraine and never considered abandoning it,” said Emre Karaahmetoglu, the general coordinator for the company in Ukraine. Its most pressing challenge is finding enough workers because of army conscription, he said. While competition for contracts is going to be huge, Turkish companies hope their experience of working in countries that have struggled with conflict or corruption will give them an advantage. Istanbul-based Dogus Construction, already in Ukraine for years, is rebuilding three bridges with backing from the UK and expects contracts worth “a couple of billion dollars” from the reconstruction effort one day, according to its country representative, Suha Canatan. As Russia rearms more quickly than Ukraine, the stalemate in the war might not hold for long. President Zelenskiy has been imploring the US to follow Europe and renew its aid package, though even if it does the question is where Ukraine’s allies can source now scarcer resources of ammunition.

But companies say that, whatever happens in the near term, reconstruction must come at some point. More of the corporate mood music is how to make sure they’re prepared for it. Away from Ukraine, for example, Hungarian engineering firm Ganz-Mavag has said part of the rationale for bidding to buy Spanish train maker Talgo SA was to scale up capacity to meet demand in Eastern Europe over the next decade, driven by the Ukrainian reconstruction once it starts. In Mykolaiv, consultants and local authorities are drafting a masterplan that looks ahead to 2050. Much of it remains on paper only as further progress can’t be done before the war ends, said Jesper Karup Pedersen, the technical director and project manager for Cowi, a Danish engineering consultancy working on the Mykolaiv redevelopment. “Many of the projects can be bomb targets,” he said. Often simple tasks like sourcing documents from local authorities are tough because people are whisked off to the front lines, creating gaps in the state administration, he said. Most of the Danish funds for the municipality were so far used to buy generators, water pumps, heaters, and support de-mining efforts in the city whose population shrank since Vladimir Putin’s invasion two years ago. Still, even those first steps are paying off. There are already visible signs that people have started to return to Mykolaiv. At his last visit to the town in January, Danish ambassador Ole Egberg Mikkelsen said he experienced a traffic jam for the first time since the war. Mikkelsen said he hopes Danish companies will one day benefit from their nation’s good reputation in Ukraine as they explore commercial opportunities in the country. “We have the approach that we must do something now,” he said. “We cannot wait for the war to be over and for reconstruction conferences to have taken place.” For sure, new industries are putting down roots, with defense and technology rising in importance and contribution to Ukraine’s economy. Agriculture, the main driver of growth, is undergoing the biggest revamp in decades. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which has provided €3.8 billion in financing for Ukraine since the war started, noted that the focus should not be only on the money, but also on people, said Beata Javorcik, the lender’s chief economist.

Indeed, the success of the biggest investment project since World War II requires the patience of Ukrainians, and whether Russia can be trusted to adhere to any peace deal, according to Nayyem, the Ukrainian official in Kyiv. “Many people think in terms of ‘the war will end and ...,’ but we do not know when it will end,” Nayyem said. “And even when it ends, what shall we do with such a neighbor? We will definitely need a long time to restore territories that were liberated or on the front line.” https://archive.ph/IV8bS#selection-2347.0-2351.274

[mapuc]

This information was new to me.

The Biden administration was specifically concerned Russia might use a tactical or battlefield nuclear weapon, the officials said

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/p...ine/index.html

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

This information was new to me.



https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/p...ine/index.html

Markus

That is old news the Russian "nuclear threat" does not mean a nuke ballistic strike, it was mentioned this would be a tactical bomb or a nuclear test all other that you see is on Russian state propaganda TV where they daily destroy NATO tenfold.