Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Posthumously, Navalny creates biggest political rally in Russia in years. The Kremlin initially did not want to release the body of opposition politician Navalny, much less a public funeral. Yet Navalny's funeral Friday became Russia's largest political event in years, with an unexpectedly large number of Russians coming to pay their last respects to him. Hours in advance, they lined up for the funeral of the man who has been the greatest threat to President Putin's omnipotence for the past decade. The large turnout underscores the fact that there is still much opposition to Putin. Several thousand visitors, of course, are not even that many people, given the sheer size of Russia. But we are no longer living in 2012 or even 2022, when demonstrating was easier than now. Russians in recent years have been arrested and even jailed for much smaller offences than shouting slogans.

It is thanks to Navalny's mother Lyudmila that there was any public ceremony at all. She complained of being pressured in recent weeks to accept a secret ceremony, for intimates only, or an anonymous burial in a mass grave in the penal colony. She then made that intimidation public, the authorities must have thought afterwards: we are not going to take this risk. Paying a last salute to a dead person is extremely important according to Christian morality in Russia. If the authorities had refused to do so, they would probably have suffered more trouble than they would have on Friday. Once the authorities had given in to Navalny's mother's demand to release his body, they also had to accept that it would become a demonstration of sorts. What helped Navalny's supporters in this regard is that the funeral was also a Christian ceremony. It looks very bad if you start cracking down on that. I am convinced that the police were instructed to restrain themselves.

As far as we know, no one was arrested around Navalny's funeral in Moscow. Elsewhere in Russia, however, people were arrested, reports human rights organization OVD-Info. These would have been mostly people who wanted to lay flowers at monuments to the victims of Soviet repression. The fact that there was no police intervention around the funeral, however, does not mean that participants need not worry about the consequences. It is quite conceivable that participants could be tracked down through video footage and still be searched at home by the police. Nor does the large turnout mean that serious opposition to Putin is still possible, at this point. They have no hope of achieving anything in the upcoming presidential election, and not much says about the opposition as an organized movement. After all, there is none. But today's turnout does say something about the covert mood in Russia. It's good to be reminded again that you shouldn't lump all Russians together, they are not either fully supportive of Putin and his war or opposed to it. According to many polls, Russians are not very much in favour of the war. Nor are they against it, but they look away. A small group of Russians is openly against the war, but even they look away from making that known in the streets. That mood, that the war must end, it does increase. Many people have taken advantage of this ceremony to make this known indirectly.

Blush of flowers on Navalny grave grows, Russian opposition leader also remembered elsewhere. Flowers continue to be laid at Aleksey Navalny's grave in Moscow this morning. This morning, his mother returned under police escort to the Borisov cemetery in the southeastern part of the capital to mourn her son. She was accompanied by Navalny's mother-in-law. Together they set bowls of food at the grave and watched as people laid flowers. Flowers were also laid elsewhere in Russia and other countries in memory of the opposition leader who died in a penal camp two weeks ago. At least 91 people were arrested in Russia yesterday who wanted to honour Navalny, according to human rights organization OVD-Info.

[Skybird]

The door-kicking will take place when the cameras of the world have turned elsewhere again. Every face has been recorded by the FSB, you can bet money on that. They did not just made statements about Navalny, but also against the war, which is against the law and under punishment in fascist Russia.
Nobody will be forgotten. Nobody will be forgiven.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The door-kicking will take place when the cameras of the world have turned elsewhere again. Every face has been recorded by the FSB, you can bet money on that. They did not just made statements about Navalny, but also against the war, which is against the law and under punishment in fascist Russia.
Nobody will be forgotten. Nobody will be forgiven.

Yes this means visits by the FSB getting notice you have to report to the army or arrest and sentences more than 10 year Gulag. Yep Gulag is back not so effective as under Stalin, more like when Lenin ordered them to be created for his terror on the people.

Originally Posted by Lenin

Who ever disagree is against us and need to disappear.

Russia sets the pace in Ukraine for now: 'War is going to last a long time'

While the Ukrainian army struggles with shortages of ammunition and men, Russia continues to attack. Analysts expect the Russian military to continue to slowly advance the front line in the coming months. It has the resources and military to sustain this pressure, albeit at a high price, for now. Russian President Putin boasted in his annual speech to parliament this week that his country is stronger than ever, both economically and militarily. "It's not the polished army he thought he would have at the 2022 invasion," said Russia expert Mark Galeotti. "But we have to recognize that Russia probably has an advantage in Ukraine this year."

Despite heavy sanctions, Russia's production of missiles and artillery ammunition has surged, writes British think tank RUSI, to which Galeotti is affiliated. The recruitment of new military personnel allows the invasion force to continue to attack in small groups. "This year is Putin's chance," says Galeotti, "before the West can get its ammunition production in order by 2025. Only, I don't think anyone has the capacity for a major offensive for now." Ukraine's main objectives for now are to strengthen, inflict losses on Russian forces, and hold out until more equipment and ammunition arrives from the West. The country likes to point to its successes in the Black Sea. It is waiting for another opportunity for a counterattack. This time with F-16s from European countries like the Netherlands. But it will be a big challenge from the Ukrainian perspective, says analyst Riley Bailey. He contributes daily updates on developments on the front lines for the U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War. "Ukraine has very difficult decisions to make in the coming months. Including how many people and weapons it deploys to frustrate the Russian advance, which is crucial." Constantly defending costs a lot of effort and also comes at the expense of future strike power, Bailey explains. There is also the mobilization issue in Ukraine. The government is applying more force to deal with the urgent shortage of military personnel.

Russia currently reportedly has some 470,000 military personnel in occupied Ukrainian territory. That is more than 100,000 more than a year ago, according to think tank RUSI. Russia's army leadership has learned from the many mistakes in the first phase of the war. To reduce losses, attack groups are now much smaller and tanks are mostly kept behind. Depleted units are relieved more quickly, experts explain. This allows the Russian army to keep pressing at the front. On the other hand, there is scepticism, because can Russia sustain the current pace in the long term? There are also indications that the war industry will find it difficult to scale up further, for example, due to labour shortages. In any case, the course of a war is difficult to predict because there are so many variables. "Currently, we see the Russians gradually gaining ground," says analyst Bailey. "They are not major breakthroughs, but they have the initiative. The Russian military determines where to fight and the pace." According to him and other analysts, Russia still loses relatively large numbers of soldiers in these attacks, but hard figures are not available. It is estimated that for every Ukrainian soldier killed, two to three Russians were killed, Galeotti said. But Russia's population is more than three times that of Ukraine, he adds. Bailey and Galeotti agree that the battle is likely to go on for a long time. For Ukraine, everything depends on Western allies: without their support, winning is seen as impossible. "Even if the equipment comes in, there is no automatic counteroffensive," Bailey says. "And probably no counteroffensive will completely end the Russian campaign." https://nos.nl/collectie/13965/artik...nog-lang-duren

Ukraine must make do with wooden-rope equipment from the West

Is Western aid to Kyiv tailored to the war that is actually being fought? Experts see Russia reclaiming the initiative and Ukraine not getting what it needs. "Give us wings to protect freedom," insisted the Ukrainian pilot's helmet that President Volodymyr Zelensky presented as a gift to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in London last year. The long discussions on providing modern tanks were just over, although the first Leopard had yet to arrive in Ukraine. But tank formations can hardly do without air superiority, and now Zelensky came begging the West to expedite delivery of fighter jets as well. Ukrainian pilots are now training in Romania with the F-16s that the Netherlands and Denmark finally pledged, but they won't be active over Ukraine until the summer, it seems. Meanwhile, the war is going sharply differently than the West hoped as recently as last year. Russian tank trenches and minefields proved an insurmountable obstacle for Ukraine, which is now on the defensive itself. From a "war of movement," the battle has now become more of a "war of position" with firmer positions. In retrospect, smart drones and electronic warfare and demining equipment might have been of more value to Kyiv than tanks.

And it was also foreseeable, conclude three American experts in a study for the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British defense think tank. Weathering the storm; Western security aid on the defensive, it is tellingly called. "At the heart of the problem is the tendency for Western aid to reflect the war Western policymakers and planners would like to fight, rather than the war Ukrainian forces are fighting," the study says. The most glaring example of wishful thinking was the long-awaited Ukrainian summer offensive, for which thousands of Ukrainian soldiers had been trained in England and Bavaria with Western equipment and according to NATO methods, with the West "pressuring Kyiv to get results with the tens of billions in military aid." Showing someone off with a new tank in Bavaria's Grafenwöhr - the largest US Army training ground in Europe - is one thing. "But a well-oiled operation of a large formation of tanks and armored infantry in a war situation, the [Western] combined arms model in which the Ukrainians underwent a crash course, is something else again," said Brigadier General Han Bouwmeester, a former staff officer at NATO and now a professor of military-operational science at the Netherlands Defense Academy. American generals would have preferred that Ukraine begin its offensive as early as spring and concentrate it on one point rather than attack across a broad front later, a reconstruction by The Washington Post revealed late last year. The question is whether it would have made a difference, RUSI researchers believe. The Russians, while worse trained and armed, were "well entrenched." Unlike Ukraine, Russia had plenty of attack aircraft and helicopters. And, decisively, so many observation drones that Ukraine could never prepare an attack undetected. As a result, the researchers write, "the offensive was doomed to failure from the start."

Two years after the beginning of Russia's "special military operation," Ukraine is struggling with severe ammunition shortages and war fatigue, and must watch with allies as the Russians have taken the initiative this winter. After the recent conquest of Avdiivka, Putin sees no reason to give his troops a rest; he seems intent on taking maximum advantage of Ukraine's weakened position due to faltering Western arms supplies. Kyiv's European allies would like to supply, but do not (yet) have the ammunition; the U.S. does, but Republicans there are obstructive. But what Ukraine receives in military support is thus not always what it needs, RUSI experts conclude after talking to hundreds of military planners and commanders in Ukraine and Kyiv's allies. A Ukrainian colonel cited as an example late last year that his troops can do significantly more damage to Russian tanks with a hundred kamikaze drones at two thousand dollars each than with one Javelin anti-tank missile - which is a hundred times more expensive than one such drone. The Javelins were a wonder weapon at the beginning of the war, but Russian tanks now operate more circumspectly; attack drones have radically changed the battlefield. On the front lines, Ukrainian soldiers feel daily the difference between their needs and what they are given. There, they are simply concerned with sufficient shells for their howitzers and mortars. Not about cruise missiles and sophisticated anti-aircraft systems that protect Ukrainian cities - relatively stunningly effective. Ukrainian front units even rely on volunteers or non-governmental organizations. In part through social media, these raise money to buy SUVs that can handle Ukrainian mud, energy bars, combat clothing, medicines, bandages, night vision goggles, drones or candles for the trenches. "We are doing what NATO should be doing," Rima Ziuraitiene, director of the NGO Blue/Yellow Ukraine told platform War on the Rocks last year. One NGO, Come Back Alive, even bought mortar shells.

From a NATO point of view, the difference between what Ukraine is getting and what it needs is easily explained, says Brigadier General Bouwmeester. "The Americans designed the Air-Land Battle concept in the Cold War, where all their weapons systems were coordinated to achieve maximum efficiency against the huge conventional force they saw behind the Iron Curtain. That requires a technologically advanced armed force. In the West, you have that." But in Ukraine, far from it. True, it has organized its armed forces increasingly Western since independence, but the equipment is still largely Soviet-made. Since the 2014 invasion of Crimea, Ukraine has been switching gears at an accelerated pace. But since the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion, it has been denied precisely weapons that are crucial for "NATO-style" operations. Like long-range missiles that can hit the Russian war machine far behind the lines, or fighter jets that can shoot down Russian bombers. Moreover, the Western arsenal that Kyiv does have at its disposal is of an unreal colorful composition. According to Bouwmeester, it involves as many as six hundred different systems, from infantry fighting vehicles, anti-aircraft, tanks, guns, artillery, mortars, each with its own ammunition and from different countries. "Everything works differently and each system has its own logistics chain," says Bouwmeester. "Even the Leopard tank; almost every country has its own version." Amid mounting ammunition shortages, Ukrainian frontline soldiers and maintenance technicians just have to deal with it.

On top of that, the RUSI experts say with a sense of understatement, many Western weapons are not top-of-the-line. Like the 31 U.S. Abrams tanks. Ukraine received an older and "stripped down" version, to prevent modern technology from falling into Russian hands. The Bradley infantry fighting vehicles were far from ready to start after arrival. And of the howitzers and machine guns delivered, many should have been rejected before export. Bouwmeester: "And then spare parts were often lacking as well. "Repairing battlefield damage then becomes woodwork." Taken together, it underscores what Zelensky has been saying for some time: the West provides enough to keep Ukraine from losing, but too little to let it win. Or as Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, said on X this week, "We tell how far we want to go ourselves, but do not draw a red line for Russia. We publicly tie our hands but leave Putin free to destroy, pillage and rape. [...] Time to change course." Still, there was hope that even without air superiority, Ukraine would break through Russian lines in at least one place. "They tried," Bouwmeester says. "But they figured out pretty quickly that with that mishmash of resources they couldn't fight the type of battle the Americans had wanted."

Putin's army is known as a cumbersome machine that relies on mass - firepower and physical exhaustion of the opponent, regardless of its own losses. But the war in Ukraine has shown that the Russians do adapt to changing circumstances. For example, they quickly copied the smart Ukrainian drones that collect intelligence and drop explosives. The Russians now probably produce more drones than Ukraine. This also includes 'land drones' that transport weapons and ammunition and can shoot. Russia is also making great strides in electronic warfare, a traditional specialty. In this way, it can better disrupt Ukrainian communications and – as it turned out last year – divert 'smart' GPS-guided artillery shells away from their target. It also caused numerous Ukrainian drones to crash out of control in recent months by blocking communications with the operator. According to a previous RUSI study, the Russians could sometimes take control of Ukrainian drones. In January this year, Ukrainian forces discovered another Russian invention: a brand new command and control system that uses AI to detect and jam enemy radars and radio signals on its own, potentially from hundreds of kilometers away. That was destroyed, by the way.

The West must also adapt to the changing force field, writes RUSI. In part, this comes down to what Russia did before: digging in behind minefields. And arm yourself against drones. As the then commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, argued last year in The Economist: innovation in drones and improvement of electronic warfare are a prerequisite for the West to force a breakthrough. The American experts predict that Ukraine will have to deploy “about ten thousand drones every week.” These are drones that - thanks to AI - can operate autonomously, that are invulnerable to electronic jammers, and that have sufficient firepower to destroy enemy lines - although drones of the latter type probably do not yet exist. Bouwmeester thinks that Ukraine's allies will not deliver such innovations - given the sensitivity of the technology and the conservative attitude so far. “The know-how in the field of AI is still in its infancy. The Americans are already afraid that a tank will fall into Russian hands, after which it will be completely dismantled. That is one of the reasons that Ukraine gets the basic configuration of everything, not with the full on-board computers and communication systems. You will also see this with AI and new drones.”

Ukraine will mainly rely on its own proven innovative capacity and efficiency, which, according to British defense specialist Phillips O'Brien, is three times higher than that of the Russians. Ukraine manages to have a major impact with limited resources; the large number of Russian naval vessels sunk in the Black Sea testifies to this. As does the recent spike in the number of crashed Russian fighters and other aircraft, which – although a conclusive explanation is still lacking – cannot be solely the result of friendly fire, as Russian military bloggers insist. What the West can now mainly help Ukraine with, according to the RUSI researchers, is a rapid adjustment of the "dated Western way of training" according to the unfeasible combined arms method in which all parts must work together seamlessly. "This means that Western trainers and advisors instruction programs must be continuously updated in view of the actual war situation in which Ukrainian soldiers find themselves. [...] Current Western efforts to train the Ukrainian armed forces are inadequate, and come too late,” the experts said.https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2024/03/02...esten-a4191838

[Jimbuna]

Zelensky appeals to West over deadly Russian drone attack on Odesa

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had called on Western allies to deliver more air defence systems after at least seven people were killed in a Russian drone strike on Odesa.

A three-month-old baby and a three-year-old child were among the victims of the overnight strike on Ukraine's southern city, local officials said.

"Russia continues to wage war on civilians," President Zelensky said.

Russian troops have recently made gains in Ukraine which faces arms shortages.

Last month, Moscow took control of the key eastern town of Avdiivka.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief has signalled he will replace some military leaders on the eastern front.

In a post on Telegram on Saturday, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said a nine-storey building had been destroyed as a result of "an attack by Russian terrorists" in Odesa.

Footage from the scene showed that several floors of a residential building had been destroyed.

The death toll has risen steadily throughout the day, as rescuers pulled out more bodies from the rubble.

At least seven people are now confirmed to have been killed and another eight injured. But a number of people are still unaccounted for, and there are fears the death toll will rise further.

Separately, Ukrainian officials said one person had been killed in the north-eastern Kharkiv region near the Russian border and another in the southern Kherson region.

In a post on social media, Mr Zelensky said: "We need more air defences from our partners. We need to strengthen the Ukrainian air shield to add more protection for our people from Russian terror. More air defence systems and more missiles for air defence systems saves lives."

Ukraine's air force said it had downed 14 or 17 drone launched by Russia overnight.

Russian forces have has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukrainian targets since they invaded Ukraine over two years ago.

In retaliation Ukraine has targeted Russian sites, notably oil facilities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68455874

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68457087

The story develops to become a Super-GAU for Germany, a super-worst-case-of-accident. The chief of the German Luftwaffe was set to become a very-high-ranking NATO military chief next year. I think that goal has been fumed up in a pipe now. Just days ago Babble-Olaf upset Paris and London about hinting in a public speech at their military personnel participating in the Ukrainian war by implying they have troops in the country that codes the target data into their missiles. Now this. And the German reputation of being security-wise very unreliable already existed and was a strong suspicion before, a request by Germany to become member of the Five-Eyes-Club has been rejected by all five member states some years ago. Lets face it, the rputaiton of the German intel services is - lousy, to put it mildy. The socialists have also tried to turn them into an exclusive anti-right policing force. And laws bind both their hands on their backs, ruling that wire tappoing and overhearing other country's services and officials shall not be done, never. If you wodner why all anti-terror operaitons inside Germany are beign always triggered by hitns form forign services, emnver by German detective work - now you know why. The german services have been crippled to impotence.

The conversation also revealed that between 100 and 200 Taurus could be delivered, and that Scholz' lie about that they would require German specialists being sent to ukraine, was right that: another of his many lies. Finally the Germans also said that a destruction of the Kerch bridge would require more Taurus missiles than is usually assumed in media and public debate.

The timing fo the Russians to reveal this intel coup points at the close Russian elections, is meant to mobilise voters for Putin by showing Russians that their old enemy, the evil Germans, is back. It also seems to show that the Russians really fear the Taurus and want to prevent its delivery at all cost - by intimidating fearsome Scholz once again, who easily fell for Russian intimidation from beginning on of this war.

The German officers in that conversation confirmed assessments that Taurus nevertheless would and could not be a war-deciding weapon.

There was speculation that maybe a Western intel service has leaked this info, to make Germany comply with demands to deliver Taurus by showing that Scholz had told lies about the need to send German troops along with it. And this on a day when a few media printed a suspicion that the local residents of the island of Rügen in the Baltic Sea have, about the Green economy destruction minister Habeck enforcing the building of an LNG terminal there despite its capacity apparently not being needed: people think and claim he does so because even the Greens have realised that their high-flying energy transformation plans have collapsed and cannot be realissed the way they planned it - and they therefore want to accept the import of Russian gas again in the future, after the war "ended". I dont say this is true, I can imagine it is and dont rule it out, but dont know whether it is true. But it illustrates to what degree the climate and public opinion has turned against the government over here. This is a new experience for the Greens: to have strong wind frontally into the face and rightout hate being thrown at them from all camps of the population.
Well.
My heart is bleeding.

[Dargo]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68457087

The story develops to become a Super-GAU for Germany, a super-worst-case-of-accident... [SNIP]
Well.
My heart is bleeding.

Germany has a long history of security fails with spies in high ranks or in top echelons of the economical and political elite Germany has not been taking security seriously for a long time.

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine’s troops are rationing ammunition. Yet House Republicans plan to take weeks to mull more aid

WASHINGTON (AP) — Ukrainian drones fly without ammunition. Russian artillery unleash deadly volleys from safe positions beyond the range of Kyiv’s troops. Shortages of ammo and supplies are resulting in lost ground to Moscow, U.S. congressional leaders warn, yet the Republican-controlled House has shown little hurry to resupply Ukraine with military aid.

Across Washington, officials are viewing the drop-off in ammunition shipments with increasing alarm. It’s now been over two months since the U.S. — which since World War II has fashioned itself as the “Arsenal of Democracy” — last sent military supplies to Ukraine.

But House Speaker Mike Johnson appears determined to chart his own course away from a $95 billion foreign aid package passed by the Senate — a decision that could stall the package for weeks to come after an already arduous months-long wait in Congress.

With U.S. military shipments cut off, Ukrainian troops withdrew from the eastern city of Avdiivka last month, where outnumbered defenders had withheld a Russian assault for four months. Delays in military support from the West are complicating the task for Kyiv’s military tacticians, forcing troops to ration ammunition and ultimately costing the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.

“If Ukraine gets the aid they will win. If they don’t get the aid they will lose — with dire consequences to the United States,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who visited Ukraine last week.

Defense officials are discussing options, which include possibly tapping existing stockpiles even before Congress approves funding to replenish them, according to Sen. Jack Reed, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee. And at a White House meeting this week, President Joe Biden, the two top Democrats in Congress and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell all took turns intensely urging Johnson to take up a Senate-passed package that would provide $60 billion worth of assistance for Kyiv.

So far, the Republican speaker has refused.

The Louisiana Republican — just four months into the powerful job as speaker, second in the line to the presidency — is under intense pressure from all sides. The leaders of 23 European parliaments have signed an open letter urging him to pass the aid. And within his own House ranks, senior Republicans are growing restive at the inaction, even as other far-right members have threatened to try to remove him from leadership if he advances the aid for Kyiv.

“The House is actively considering options on a path forward, but our first responsibility is to fund the government and our primary, overriding responsibility — and it has been for the last three years — has been to secure the border,” Johnson said at a news conference.

Johnson responded to the pressure on Ukraine by saying the House had only received the funding legislation in mid-February after the Senate took four months to negotiate, including enforcement policies at the U.S.-Mexico border. The deal on border security swiftly collapsed after Republicans, including Johnson, criticized the proposal as insufficient. Yet Johnson and other House Republicans are once again hoping to secure some policy wins on border security.

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Congress late last year, he told Johnson that the military aid would last into February. But as Congress entered March, Johnson so far has allowed House members to craft their own proposals and revealed little on his plans for the package.

“We’re beyond the time frame that this should have taken, this analysis and careful consideration by the House should have been completed before the end of the year or very shortly after the new year,” said Rep. French Hill, an Arkansas Republican.

Hill and several other senior Republicans are pressing Johnson to act by crafting a new national security package in the House. That bill, which is being drafted by Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul and key appropriators, is expected to come in less than the $95 billion Senate package but include many similar provisions — including money that Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific allies could use to purchase U.S. military equipment, as well as some humanitarian assistance.

It may also include a version of the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians, or REPO Act, which would allow the U.S. to tap frozen Russian central bank assets to compensate Ukraine for damages from the invasion, Hill said. He said it would save taxpayer dollars in the long run and help gain Republican votes in the House.

“This is more a matter of finding out the way to move forward,” said seasoned Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., the chairman of the Rules committee. “But a substantial majority of both houses of Congress wants to help Ukraine. You had 70 over there,” he said about the robust Senate support, “and the vote here will be well north of 300.”

Rep. Annie Kuster of New Hampshire, who leads a caucus of centrist Democrats called New Dems, said many in her party are ready to help Johnson pass a military aid package if he brings it to the floor. But she said the bill already passed by the Senate would have the broadest support.

“We’re at a critical moment right now, and I encourage Speaker Johnson to work with us,” Kuster said. “He has such a slim majority.”

Meanwhile, any decision by the Pentagon to send Ukraine weapons before Congress approves funding is fraught with risk. Since there is no money to replenish the equipment and weapons sent, the military would be depleting its stockpiles and potentially risking harm to unit readiness for war.

In addition, there are worries that action from the Pentagon could dissuade Congress from moving quickly on the funding bill.

Reed said it would make more sense for Congress to pass the supplemental package, because then the Pentagon “could immediately order the equipment they’re drawing down. We run the risk without that of drawing down the equipment and not being able to replace it or being confident of replacement.”

But he added, “There might be circumstances where the president would decide to ship equipment like ATACMS, even though it would be a difficult judgment.”

The U.S. has sent medium-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) as well as HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems). But there has been pressure for the U.S. to send longer-range ATACMS. The U.S. has resisted out of concerns Moscow would consider them escalatory, since they could reach deeper into Russia and Russian-held territory.

Ukrainian leaders, however, could use the longer-range missiles to disrupt Russian supply lines — a capability that is seen as essential as Russian President Vladimir Putin looks to surge more troops this spring.

Ukraine also has made it clear that its forces also need additional artillery, including 155 mm howitzer rounds, as well as air defense ammunition.

Ukrainian officials have expressed confidence they can withstand a Russian offensive for several more months, said Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, which advocates for American cooperation with Europe. Yet she added that the Pentagon’s consideration of using drawdown authority sent a somber message that officials view the conflict as having direct implications for U.S. national security.

Some are warning that if Congress fails to provide the aid, U.S. troops will next be called on to help defend NATO allies.

Schumer said that during his trip to Ukraine, “One leading American said to me if we don’t get the aid, Russian tanks could be at the Polish border by December.”
https://apnews.com/article/congress-...3e93b558da5bd8

[Jimbuna]

Everything you need to know about Russia’s 2024 presidential election

Russia’s 2024 presidential election isn’t expected to bring change to the Kremlin.

With most opposition figures either in jail or abroad and many independent media outlets blocked, the Kremlin maintains tight control over the country’s political system. March’s vote is all but guaranteed to see President Vladimir Putin, 71, cement his place in power until at least 2030.

Nonetheless, the election is set to be closely watched by those looking for insight into Russia’s political machinations, as well as opinions across wider Russian society just over two years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Who can vote in Russia’s 2024 presidential election?

Any Russian citizen over the age of 18 who is not serving time in prison can vote in the country’s presidential election. In February 2024, Russia’s central election committee said that some 112.3 million people were eligible to vote in Russia and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. A further 1.9 million Russians living abroad are also eligible to vote, it said.

Turnout in Russia’s last presidential election in 2018 stood at 67.54% though observers and individual voters reported widespread violations including ballot-box stuffing and forced voting. In the country’s 2021 parliamentary, election turnout was 51.7%.

How does voting work in Russia’s 2024 presidential election?

Voting in Russia and in the annexed regions of Ukraine will largely be carried out at polling stations over three days between March 15-17. It is the first presidential election in Russia when polls will be open for three days instead of one.

Russian officials first employed multiple-day voting in the 2020 referendum Putin orchestrated to push a constitutional reform that would allow him to run for two more terms. However, this will be the first time that multi-day voting will be used in a presidential vote.

It will also be the first presidential election in which voters can cast ballots online, with e-voting rolled out across 29 regions.

Independent election observers widely criticized stretching the vote for several days and allowing online voting, saying they were tactics to further hinder the transparency of the balloting process. Opposition groups in 2021 said digital votes in the country’s parliamentary elections showed signs of manipulation.

The vote will also take place in Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and the four regions in the southeast of the country that Russia annexed after launching the full-scale invasion in 2022 — even though the Russian forces don’t fully control either of the four. The decision to hold the vote there was denounced by Kyiv and the West.

Early voting has already kicked off in some regions, and will be gradually rolled out in others as well.

Who is running in the Russia’s 2024 presidential election?

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be running in the election as an independent candidate. He is all but certain to secure his fifth term while facing a trio of token contenders.

The other candidates nominated by Kremlin-friendly parties represented in parliament are Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party, Leonid Slutsky of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party, and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party. Kharitonov previously ran against Putin in 2004, finishing a distant second.

They broadly support the Kremlin and its policies, including the invasion of Ukraine. Previous elections have shown such candidates are unlikely to get enough votes to mount a real challenge to Putin. In the 2018 presidential vote, the Communist party runner-up secured 11.8% of the vote, compared to Putin’s 76.7%.

Meanwhile, most of the opposition figures who might have challenged Putin have been either imprisoned or exiled abroad. Last week, Russia’s best-known opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose attempt to run against Putin in 2018 was rejected, suddenly died in prison while serving a 19-year sentence on extremism charges.

Why is Russia’s 2024 presidential election important?

Many commentators, as well as Russia’s largely scattered opposition, describe the election as a plebiscite on the war in Ukraine that Putin launched two years ago.

Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst who used to be Putin’s speechwriter, has described the vote as one where “multiple choice is replaced with a simple, dichotomic one: ‘Are you for or against Putin?’ and has said that it will be a ”referendum on the issue of the war, and a vote for Putin will become a vote for the war.”

The opposition views the vote as an opportunity to demonstrate the scale of discontent with Putin and the war. Shortly before his unexpected and still unexplained death, Navalny called on voters to go to the polls at noon on March 17 and form long lines.

“Putin views these elections as a referendum on approval of his actions. Referendum on approval of the war,” Navalny said in a statement passed on from behind bars, shortly before his death. “Let’s break his plans and make sure that on March 17 no one is interested in the fake result, but all of Russia saw and understood: the will of the majority is that Putin must leave.”

Will Russia’s 2024 presidential election be free and fair?

Observers who follow Russia’s 2024 presidential election have little hope the vote will be free and fair. Activists reported practices such as forced voting during the country’s 2021 parliamentary election, with videos on social media showing ballots being stuffed into voting boxes.

During the country’s last presidential election in 2018, an International Election Observation Mission from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) described the vote as lacking genuine competition, and marred by “continued pressure on critical voices.”

In the years that followed, the country’s parliament has introduced increasingly oppressive legislation clamping down on free speech. The vast majority of independent Russian media outlets have been banned and anyone found guilty of spreading what the government deems to be “deliberately false information” about the country’s invasion of Ukraine can be imprisoned for up to 15 years.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-pr...3048ed8585fe55

[mapuc]

Here is what I think is going to happen after Putin win the election.

He will declare war on Ukraine and thereby open up for massive mobilization.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Here is what I think is going to happen after Putin win the election.

He will declare war on Ukraine and thereby open up for massive mobilization.

Markus

+1 .

[Skybird]

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de

That German spies are seen as blasée and arrogant by other Western intel agencies, I knew. That he claims the others see the Germans as potentially potent and would like to increase cooperation with them, is surprising to me. That he says Five Eyes would love to have the Germans aboard but that the Germans were the ones who refused membership, is by 180° a reverse narration than the one I recall: Germany appealed for membership and all members of Five Eyes rejected the Germans due to their notorious inherent security problems.

What is not being reflected is that in recent years more and more laws have forbidden German intel agencies more and more activities that are vital for collecting any useful intel at all, or conducting counter espionage. It has mostly been banned and verboten, due to overboarding political correctness. The current socialist interior minster als wants to use her term to turn the whole apparatus into an exclusive suppressive powertool to gag the political conservative and right, while not caring for left-winged political violence and Islamic violence. Even investigating clan crime is being seen as practiced racism - even speaking of clan crime is called racism.

I think the ex-CIA man has a very strange view of the German services, and he sees them as much better than they are. They are politically gagged. And practically all terror plots that got spoiuled in the past twnety years in germany have been spiled due to forejg servioces putting the Ger,mans on track. Without this foreign help, we would have seen a wave of successfully carried out terror strikes the German, if left to themselves, would not have been able to learn about while they had still time.

Thank you, foreign services! We owe you more than just one beer.


What the Germans were good in, is to have contacts to all sides in the Middle East, this allowing them to initiate opening contacts between varipous parties and sides. For this ability they were - probbaly correctly - respected in the 80s and 90s. I have no idea however if this still is the case. As I see it form media reports iof the past 20 years, the German services in general have suffered tremendously in competence and ability. But that is no qualified judgement, just my personal subjective and media-based opinion. Secrecy is their business, so what can we know...

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia to cut oil output, exports by additional 471,000 bpd in Q2

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will cut oil production and exports by an additional 471,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2024 in coordination with some OPEC+ participating countries, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday.

Of that, the country will reduce oil production by additional 350,000 bpd while exports will be cut by 121,000 bpd in April. In May, the additional oil output cut will stand at 400,000 bpd and exports at 71,000 bpd. In June, all the additional cuts will be from oil output, Novak said.

The export cut will be made from the average export levels of the months of May and June of 2023, he added.

"This additional voluntary cut comes to reinforce the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets," Novak said in a statement.
Russia had previously agreed to voluntarily reduce oil and fuel exports by 500,000 bpd in the first quarter, in addition to voluntary cuts of output by the same scale until the end of 2024.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...47e8c184&ei=24