Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

I did not say Ukrainians do not ty to fight back, and with lcoal success, I say we hear little on their losses, and we see many reports from their troops in the field saying that they are beign outgunned and outdroned now.

The troops fighting in the field are the experts I respect most to assess how they do against russians now. And they voice a lot of frustration, and say they are practically under drone attack and drone surveillance now all day long, every minute, every hour. They say they can currently not compete with the numbers of drones Russia can field. And that Russia can repalces its drone losses much faster than Ukraine can. Ukrainainas imrpoivse their dornes. Russian mass-produces them on a now industrial basis!

I think it was OSINT that admitted already in the first half last year that they can no longer keep up with analysing the loss numbers and individually confirming them, they even wasnted to stop their work for that reason, and admitted that their numbers probably are no longer even near to reliability. And Ukraine wages propaganda wars, too, and Western intelligence will not give away bad news easily as well. Ukraine hides its own losses as good as it can, as does Russia. For example the losses and troops left behind in Avdijivka by now are said to have been several factors higher than was initially reported. The Americans no longer support their initial assessment that it was a well-planned withdrawel with no longterm strategic meaning. Ukrainian sources -witnesses - also confirm that it was a debacle unfolding in haste. A total mess.

I understand the official Ukrainian position and the motivation behind their propaganda. But nevertheless it is - propaganda. They want to make the world believe what is most useful for them. And who wants to cdriticise them? They are standing with their backs against the wall, and their situation gets more desperate every week.

As I see it they are close to breaking point, and if there comes no miracle, it nwill happen this year. Reisner said a few days ago the Russian had increased in recent days the front sectors where they push enduring advances from 6 to 15, at the time he said that it was 6km deep and more . And the Ukrainians are super-short on ammo. That are 15 chances to achieve indeed a decisive break into the front that could lead to an operational breakthrough. And that in itself could break the Ukrainians' back.

And please nobody should start telling all the things again what the Russians are claimed they cannot do. If the prophets and optimits would have been rught, Russia would be economically broke by now, the ukrainians would stand at the sea of Asov and Russians would be fleeing in wild flight eastwards. Instead the Russians not only held their lines, but advance in at least 15 frontal sectors, and have practically neutralised all small territorial gains Ukraine scored last year.

Have people already forgotten what Zalushnji wrote in The Economist? Obviously he saw something so alarming that he even risked the open confrontation with Zelensklji, his superior.


Colonel Reisner: "Wir lieben es, zu hören, was wir gerne glauben wollen." He does not talk that sort of sugar talk. Nor do I.

[Dargo]

The Russian defence industry cannot produce as many shells as their military uses up, and most of the tanks that Russia fields are older models. The Russian military faces problems, with its professional army largely destroyed in the first year of war, it resorts to using waves of untrained conscripts. You can capture cities, but breaking thought in open fields with untrained conscripts against natural and men made defence lines is suicide. Russia doesn't have the strength to achieve the strategic goals in their entirety this year. Like they could not win WWII without the land lease from the US, what they now get from their allies is peanuts what the US gave in WWII. After Stalin the decline of Russia went worse and when Putin toke over the kleptocracy went FUBAR Russia does not need sanctions it is capable to destroy its own economy themselves at the needs of Putin and his gang.

[August]

[Skybird]

The Bundestag debated about the Ukriane war and wepaon deliveries for Ukraine. It then voted by majority against the delivery of Taurus.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Bundestag debated about the Ukriane war and wepaon deliveries for Ukraine. It then voted by majority against the delivery of Taurus.

No big surprises there then

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Bundestag debated about the Ukriane war and wepaon deliveries for Ukraine. It then voted by majority against the delivery of Taurus.

What about other weapons and ammo ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Pro-war Russian blogger who revealed huge Avdiivka losses dies by suicide

Andrey Morozov, a prominent pro-war Russian blogger, has reportedly died by suicide following outrage over a post in which he claimed that the Russian army lost 16,000 soldiers during the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka.

Morozov, who went by the pseudonym Murz on Telegram, was an ultra-nationalist commentator who fought alongside Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and participated in Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

On Sunday, Morozov wrote to his 120,000 followers on Telegram that Russia lost 16,000 personnel and 300 pieces of armour during its months-long capture of Avdiivka. The post drew heavy criticism from senior Russian propagandists, who accused the blogger of “slandering the Russian defence ministry”.

In Morozov’s final messages on Tuesday morning, he announced his suicide and said he was pressured by his superiors to delete the post detailing the number of casualties in Avdiivka. Several people close to Morozov on Tuesday confirmed his death, with some saying that he had shot himself.

Triggered in part by the rebellion by then-Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Kremlin last year largely cracked down on voices such as Morozov, who once was part of a loud group of ultra-nationalist hawks who criticised Moscow over shortages of weapons and accused the Russian military leadership of hiding the true death toll among its forces.

Russia hides its war losses and the true casualty toll from its invasion of Ukraine remains a secret, though western officials believe the war has cost the country more than 315,000 dead and injured troops.

Avdiivka, which once had a population of 32,000, fell to Russia on Saturday, presenting Vladimir Putin with his biggest battlefield victory since Russian forces captured the city of Bakhmut in May 2023.

The city holds particular symbolism for Russia as it was taken in 2014 by Moscow-backed separatists who seized a swathe of eastern Ukraine but then recaptured by Ukrainian troops.

Russia’s manpower and artillery advantage overwhelmed Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka, but Moscow appears to have incurred a staggering number of casualties during the offensive.

The UK Ministry of Defence earlier estimated in a military briefing that Russia lost at least “400 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other hardware, as well as likely thousands of personnel” during the campaign to capture Avdiivka.

Ukraine said that more than 17,000 Russian soldiers were killed in the five months-long fight for Avdiivka, a figure that closely matches the estimates made by Morozov.

Ukraine too suffered heavily during the defence of the city.

Citing western officials, the New York Times on Tuesday reported that hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by Russian units during Ukraine’s retreat from the city.

Ukraine has blamed the fall of Avdiivka on US failure to approve a critical aid package, amid fears in Kyiv that Russia will press on with its offensive with Ukrainian troops short of shells and vulnerable to Russian airstrikes.

“We wouldn’t [have lost] Avdiivka if we had all the artillery ammunition that we needed to defend it. Russia does not intend to pause or withdraw. … Once Avdiivka is under their control, they undoubtedly will choose another city and begin to storm it,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said.

Putin on Tuesday said his troops would push further into Ukraine to build on their success on the battlefield.

“As for the overall situation in Avdiivka, this is an absolute success, I congratulate you. It needs to be built on,” Putin told his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, in the Kremlin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ies-by-suicide

[Jimbuna]

How two years of war in Ukraine changed Russia

As I stood watching Russians laying flowers in memory of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, a young man shared his reaction to Mr Navalny's death in prison.

"I'm in shock," he told me, "just like two years ago on 24 February: when the war started."

It made me think about everything that has happened in Russia these last two years, since President Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

It is a catalogue of drama, bloodshed, tragedy.

Russia's war has brought death and destruction to Ukraine. The Russian military has suffered huge losses, too.
Russian towns have been shelled and come under drone-attack;
Hundreds of thousands of Russian men were drafted into the army;
Wagner mercenaries mutinied and marched on Moscow. Their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin later died in a plane crash.
The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russia's president for alleged war crimes.
Now Vladimir Putin's most vocal critic is dead.

24 February 2022 was a watershed moment.

But looking back the direction of travel had been clear. It was in 2014 that Russia had annexed Crimea from Ukraine and first intervened militarily in the Donbas; Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with a nerve agent in 2020 and jailed in 2021. Domestic repression in Russia pre-dates the invasion of Ukraine, but it has accelerated since.

As for Vladimir Putin, two years into this war he sounds increasingly confident and determined to defeat his enemies at home and abroad. He rails against America, Nato and the EU and presents Russia's war in Ukraine as a war on Russia by the "collective West", an existential battle for his country's survival.

How and when will it end? I can't predict the future. I can, however, recall the past.

In a cupboard at home recently I found a dusty folder with copies of my Russia despatches from more than 20 years ago: the early Putin years.

Sifting through them, it was like reading about a different galaxy light-years away.

"According to a recent poll, 59% of Russians support the idea of Russia joining the European Union…" I wrote on 17 May 2001.

"Nato and Russia are actively seeking closer cooperation: a sign to both sides that the real threat to world peace lies not with each other…" [20 November 2001]

So, where did it all go wrong? I'm not the only person wondering.

"The Putin I met with, did good business with, established a Nato-Russia Council with, is very, very different from this almost megalomaniac at the present moment," former Nato chief Lord Robertson told me recently when we met in London.

"The man who stood beside me in May of 2002, right beside me, and said Ukraine is a sovereign and independent nation state which will make its own decisions about security, is now the man who says that [Ukraine] is not a nation state."

Lord Robertson even recalls Vladimir Putin contemplating Nato membership for Russia.

"At my second meeting with Putin, he said explicitly: 'When are you going to invite Russia to join Nato?' I said, 'We don't invite countries to join Nato, they apply.' And he said, 'Well, we're not going to stand in line beside a bunch of countries who don't matter.'

Lord Robertson said he does not think that Putin really wanted to apply for Nato membership.

"He wanted it presented to him, because I think he always thought - and increasingly thinks - that Russia is a great nation on the world stage and needs the respect that the Soviet Union had," he told me.

"He was never going to comfortably fit inside an alliance of equal nations, all sitting round the table debating and discussing interests of common policy."

Lord Robertson points out that the Soviet Union was once recognised as the second superpower in the world, but Russia can't make any claims in that direction today.

"I think that sort of ate away at [Putin's] ego. Combine that with the feebleness, sometimes, of the West and in many ways the provocations that he faced, as well as his own growing ego. I think that changed the individual who wanted to cooperate with Nato into somebody who now sees Nato as a huge threat."

Moscow sees things differently. Russian officials claim it was Nato enlargement eastwards that undermined European security and led to war. They accuse Nato of breaking a promise to the Kremlin, made allegedly in the dying days of the USSR, that the alliance wouldn't accept countries previously in Moscow's orbit.

"There was certainly nothing on paper," Lord Robertson tells me. "There was nothing that was agreed, there was no treaty to that effect. But it was Vladimir Putin himself who signed the Rome Declaration on 28 May 2002. The same piece of paper I signed, which enshrined the basic principles of territorial integrity and non-interference in other countries. He signed that. He can't blame anybody else."

In the town of Solnechnogorsk, 40 miles from Moscow, the last two dramatic years of Russia's history are on display in the park.

I spot graffiti in support of the Wagner mercenary group.

There are flowers in memory of Alexei Navalny.

And there's a large mural of two local men, Russian soldiers, killed in Ukraine. Painted alongside is a Youth Army cadet saluting them.

In the town centre, at a memorial to those killed in World War Two and the Soviet war in Afghanistan, a new section has been added:

"To soldiers killed in the special military operation."

Forty-six names are etched into stone.

I ask Lidiya Petrovna, passing by with her grandson, how life has changed in two years.

"Our factories are now making things we used to buy abroad. That's good," Lidiya says. "But I'm sad for the young men, for everyone, who've been killed. We certainly don't need war with the West. Our people have seen nothing but war, war, war all their lives."

When I speak to Marina, she praises Russian soldiers she says are "doing their duty" in Ukraine. Then she looks across at her 17-year-old son Andrei.

"But as a mother I'm frightened that my son will be called up to fight. I want peace as soon as possible, so that we won't fear what comes tomorrow."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68359252

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

What about other weapons and ammo ?

Markus

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-bunde.../live-68334762


^ This may or may not trabslate into the dleuvery of MARS-II one day - or not. Who knows. The vote is not binding for the little Olaf. And sicne that is so, it all was stage thunder only, not projhetcing anything mnore or less than what already has been said, promised, planned, intended, announced...


What is desperately needed most is ammo for the air defences, and artillery ammo. These two before anything else. A significantly higher ammount of Russian drones and missiles seem to get through now because Ukraine lacks the missiles to shot them down.

[Dargo]

This is about "additional" long-range weapons systems and ammunition, not the Taurus cruise missile system that system will only have the go if the US sends long-range weapons systems if I understand the German politics right at the moment. Same as with the leopards this motion is not about other weapons or ammo, those packages are separate and already promised.

[mapuc]

Denmark has committed to helping Ukraine both militarily and financially for the next 10 years. Already now a package of 1.7 billion Danish kroner is being sent - Most of this is for the purchase of weapons and ammunition

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/denmark-...cade-1.2037911

Markus

[mapuc]

One has to laugh

Russia has never been richer after selling $37 billion in oil to India last year

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...Tc2NC41OS4wLjA.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Alexei Navalny: Putin critic's mother says she has been shown his body

Alexei Navalny's mother has said she has been shown his body, but added that the Russian authorities were pressuring her to allow a "secret" burial.

In a video address, Lyudmila Navalnaya said she had been brought to a morgue where she signed a death certificate.

The former opposition leader's press secretary said a medical report presented to Ms Navalnaya stated he died of natural causes.

Navalny's widow has said he was killed by Russian authorities.

Lyudmila Navalnaya said the law required officials to hand over her son's body, but said that she was being "blackmailed" as they refused to do so. She alleged authorities were setting conditions for the burial of her son, including the place, time and manner of his burial.

She said: "They want to take me to the outskirts of the cemetery to a fresh grave and say: 'Here lies your son.'"

Ms Navalnaya, who travelled to the northern Russian town of Salekhard following the news of her son's death in a nearby penal colony, also said she was being threatened by the authorities.

"Looking into my eyes, they say that if I do not agree to a secret funeral, they will do something with my son's body.

Investigators told her, "Time is not on your side, the corpse is decomposing," she said.

Lyudmila Navalnaya was speaking in a video posted to her late son's YouTube channel, and finished the address by demanding his body be returned to her.

There was no immediate response from Russian authorities.

Navalny died in a prison colony on 16 February. Prison officials said he had fallen ill following a "walk".

But his widow Yulia Navalnaya has claimed that he was killed on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin and vowed to continue his struggle.

The Kremlin has denied the allegations, calling Western reaction to the death "hysterical".

In August 2020, the former opposition leader was poisoned using the Novichok nerve agent by a team of would-be assassins from the Russian secret services.

Airlifted to Germany, he recovered there before returning to Russia in January 2021, where he was imprisoned.

Attempts at commemorating his death have been met by a heavy-handed response from Russian authorities, with makeshift monuments cleared and hundreds arrested.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68374769

[Jimbuna]

Türkiye to assist US in increasing artillery ammunition production - Pentagon

Metal parts for 155-millimeter ammunition will be produced at facilities in the United States established in cooperation with subcontractors from the Turkish defense sector, according to Pentagon spokesman Jeff Jurgensen.

According to him, production is scheduled to begin by the end of 2025 at three plants in Texas.

He also adds that the contract for construction, installation, and subsequent production was signed with General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems.

Jurgensen specifies that the ammunition plant would have a production capacity of 30,000 shell casings per month.

US cooperation with Türkiye

Earlier, US Ambassador Jeff Flake stated in his article that strong relations with Türkiye are important for Washington.
In the material titled "A strong relationship with Türkiye is in America’s best interest," he noted that the "transformation" of the Turkish defense sector is an integral part of the US defense supply chain and NATO's power.

Missiles for Ukraine

In early May 2023, the European Union and its allies agreed to allocate one billion euros for joint purchases of ammunition for Ukraine. It was planned that the EU countries would provide Ukraine with one million shells by March 2024. But so far, this plan has not been fulfilled.

Speaking in Munich, Czech President Petr Pavel said that Prague had found 800,000 shells that could be sent to Ukraine in the coming weeks.

Recently, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas also said that Europe has tripled its production of shells for Ukraine. In addition, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that Poland is considering more ammunition to help Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...f2fa4a50&ei=53

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Alexei Navalny: Putin critic's mother says she has been shown his body

An investigator called AlexeyÂ’s mother two hours ago and gave her an ultimatum. Either she agrees to a secret funeral without a public farewell within 3 hours, or Alexey will be buried in the colony. She refused to negotiate with the IC, as they are not authorised to decide how and where her son should be buried. She is demanding compliance with the law, according to which investigators are obliged to hand over the body within two days of establishing the cause of death. According to the medical documents she signed, these two days expire tomorrow. She insists that the authorities allow the funeral and memorial service to take place in accordance with normal practice. https://twitter.com/Kira_Yarmysh/sta...51462837129537

Soldiers of the 47th Mechanized Brigade showed the combat use of their M1A1 SA Abrams tanks in the Avdiivka direction. “And while Russian invaders are trying to understand where Abrams tanks are, tankers of the 47th Mechanized Brigade have been “dismantling” Russian invaders and their equipment for molecules for more than a month,” the Brigade said.



The ukrainian 47th was never meant to ride Leopard 2A6 tanks, the brigade was designed to be equipped with US-supplied vehicles, including M1A1 Abrams tanks. However, the training took longer than expected, and the transfer of M1A1 Abrams tanks was not approved in time. Ukrainian command reassigned a tank battalion equipped with Leopard 2A6 tanks under the brigadeÂ’s command. They were attached to the 47th Mechanized Brigade for a more than half year, and operated alongside mechanized battalions of the brigade during the Ukrainian southern offensive and the defence of Avdiivka. The temporary assignment of Leopard 2A6 tanks is now over. The official representatives of 47th Mechanized Brigade confirmed that M1A1 Abrams tanks are in the service of the brigade. The Leopard 2A6 tanks have been assigned to 21st Mechanized Brigade, where they, together with Stridsvagn 122 tanks, will form a proper tank battalion of the brigade.

The Netherlands concludes ten-year security agreement with Ukraine

The Netherlands and Ukraine are to sign a security agreement covering the next ten years. The agreement signals the Dutch government's commitment to provide enduring support to Ukraine in the areas of security, reconstruction and justice. The agreement means that the Netherlands will help Ukraine defend itself against Russia and achieve further integration into the EU and NATO.

Originally Posted by foreign minister Hanke Bruins Slot

Our own security is closely intertwined with Ukraine's,’ said foreign minister Hanke Bruins Slot. ‘Not for a single day can we afford to forget that the Ukrainians’ brave fight is also our concern. Ukraine must be able to rely on our support, not only now but in the longer term too. This also sends a powerful signal to Russia, which is hoping that Western support for Ukraine will eventually dry up. Without that support, Ukraine as we know it would cease to exist. The Russian threat would come even closer, and the stability and security of our continent would come under serious pressure.

On 12 July 2023, during the NATO summit in Vilnius, the Netherlands announced that it would seek to make bilateral security arrangements with Ukraine, following the example of the G7 countries. The Netherlands and Ukraine subsequently entered into talks to work out the details of these arrangements. The security agreement includes arrangements on military support in the medium and longer term, cooperation involving the defence industry, improving Ukraine's resilience – including its response to cyber threats – and improving interoperability between Ukraine's army and NATO troops.

The Netherlands and Ukraine also agreed to continue their joint efforts on recovery and reconstruction and on countering hybrid threats, to maintain their commitment to establishing truth and justice for all victims of the war, and to continue calls for sanctions that will increase the pressure on Russia. The official signing of the agreement will take place soon. https://www.government.nl/latest/new...t-with-ukraine