Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Black Rock CEO says Ukrainian war has ended globalization.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/24/b...ion/index.html

Which in itself is more good than bad, imo, but I would have said Corona began the ending of globalization - the war now completes it. I think globalization always has been perceived with a very strong bias on the winners only. The many losers it also produced, got almost always ignored, denied, minimised in relevance. But they are many.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Precisely

There's some traffic now. As I said earlier daytime there's activity.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Ostfriese]

Originally Posted by Buddahaid

It's still a warship.

It certainly is, but in some corners of the internet people celebrate as if it was a Kirov class battlecruiser.

[Exocet25fr]

Biden and his Zelensky clown are VERY DANGEROUS for Western Europe, the US hope to destabilize the UE with Putin, I predict a Future war in Western Europe !, not in USA of course !

[Skybird]

France usually has one of its four SLBM subamrine son patrol. It gets reprted that now two mo9re boats have left harbour. Means: 3 of 4 French SLBM submarines are now on alert and have "disappeared from the screen".

NATO delivers now, in it sown jargon, "lethal" weapons to Ukraine, including anti-ship missiles. Before, they made a strict discrimination between "lethal wepaons" and "eapoisn for self defence. If that make sense.

NATO delivers ABC protection gear, sensors and staff for training to the Ukraine. Also, Eastern states of the alliance that have borders with Russia or the Ukraine, have activated military ABC protocols. One may fear a bit that Russia strikes NAOT, althpoguh I think that is unlikely, but one seems to be quite certain that Russia will use ABC weapons sooner or later against the Ukraine, ands that their effect could drift across the border, may it be due to wind, may it be due to human traffic.


The UK will deliver 2000 more missiles.

Germany, so it seems, started to deliver arms and missiles that are in active use by BW units right now, to get the Ukraine hands on these weapons. The BW willl order replacements directly from the producers. That is an elegant way of ratating through the existing reserves or ammo and weapons and missiles, - but the gods may have mercy with us if we now get attacked with having given away these supplies while the replacement orders still have not been delivered!

The treaty from I think 1997 that limited ATO troops presence in Eastenr member states, seems to be seen as having turned obsolete by Russia's attack. Nobody cares for it anynore. I agree.

This is not how Putrin could have planned it. He gets right the opposite of everything that he wanted to acchieve with the war.

Right now I think the chance for a Russian marching-through from Ukraine into Poland, Hungary, or the Baltic, is close to impossible. The Russian army cannot do it. And NATO is in full reinforcement.

[mapuc]

^ We are getting more and more involved in this war...As I have said before thou longer the war goes on thou higher is the chance NATO will get involved

and not to forget

I would get really concern the day Putin order the Arctic fleet of Submarines to leave port and sail into the Atlantic.

Markus

[mapuc]

We talked about Ruble yesterday where Jim said why they were worthless and Skybird said they will go up. Today I read this article in a Danish newspaper - Translated with DeepL.

Start of article:
Russian President Putin wants to make it much more difficult and uncertain for Europeans to buy Russian natural gas. An attempt to shore up the ailing Russian economy, says expert

Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday evening that 'unfriendly countries' will in future have to pay for natural gas in roubles.

The already extremely high price of natural gas rose on Thursday morning, and the announcement from the Russian president was not exactly good news for European buyers of natural gas, says senior analyst at Sydbank Kim Blindbæk.

- It came as a bit of a bombshell yesterday. Normally you pay for these commodities primarily in dollars, which the Russians then exchange for rubles. In Norway, for example, they also exchange dollars for Norwegian kroner. But the Russians are cornered, and they therefore need roubles, he says.

Europe has exempted energy trade from sanctions, so gas continues to flow, but the Russian president has a serious squeeze on Europe when it comes to gas. Up to half of European gas consumption comes from Russia.

Support the currency

Exchanging large amounts of, for example, dollars for roubles will create increased demand for the rouble and thus support the Russian currency, which plunged shortly after the invasion. In response to the fire sale of the Russian currency, the Russian central bank raised interest rates to a staggering 20 percent.

If Putin gets a payment for Russian gas in roubles implemented, it will also make life much more difficult for European buyers.

Putin probably also wants to show that it was foolish to impose sanctions on Russian banks, because many would rather avoid dealing in rubles. At the same time, spending roubles can quickly become a tricky business, because with the large fluctuations we have seen in the exchange rate, you don't really know what the roubles you buy will be worth tomorrow. So the uncertainty is very high, says Kim Blindbæk.

However, Putin stressed on Wednesday, according to the senior analyst, that Russia will respect the contracts already signed, which in all likelihood include sections on the currency in which settlements will be made.

Thus, such new requirements will only apply to new contracts for the purchase of gas, and these are also concluded all the time, he says

Not a rescue

Even if Europe buys 100 billion crowns worth of Russian gas every month, paying for it in roubles in the future will not save the Russian economy.

- I don't think it will change the situation of the Russian economy right now. They are really cornered and we can see that many Western companies are pulling out of Russia now. So a lot of the income streams that they used to get from the companies that operated out of Russia have disappeared.

- Furthermore, we see that a lot of companies don't want to trade with Russia at all, even if they can, so Russia is in a situation where they will have a really hard time in the coming years, says Kim Blindbæk.

Ukraine's government has repeatedly expressed its dissatisfaction with the fact that Europe continues to buy billions in gas from Russia despite the war.

The European price of natural gas, known as TTF, had fallen back to the previous day's level by around 4pm on Thursday.

End of article

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[Buddahaid]

Then don't buy it.

[Skybird]

It seems the Europeans indeed will not buy in Rubles. If they would, they would undermine their own sanctions when needing to buy Rubles at Russia's central bank first.

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And a thought on the by some people mentioned option that the Ukraine would go neutral as a compromise to end the war and kick Russia out. A neutral state needs defence capacities, but Russia demands such a Ukraine to be demilitarized.

Ukraine also would need to get security guarantees by big player states. Ukraine has already experienced that international guarantees can be worthless in the end: In 1994, it committed itself in the Budapest Memorandum to give up its nuclear weapons, which had come from the bankruptcy estate of the Soviet Union. In return, Russia, the United States and Great Britain pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and borders. Twenty years later, Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea; the two Western powers allowed it to happen. Another eight years later we have the war of today. Those guarantees by the US, the UK and Russia were obviously not worth the paper they were printed on.

[mapuc]

^ Why did "Peace in our lifetime" pop-up in my mind when I read your comment Skybird

Markus

[Skybird]

^
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FOCUS writes:


Turkey could become the oil and gas hub for Europe in the future, replacing Russia. This is the conclusion of a confidential analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. One risk, however, is Turkey's good relationship with Russia. Also a connection of Turkey to the sanctions of the west against Russia is not to be expected at present.

According to a confidential analysis by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), Turkey has the potential to become the new oil and gas hub for Europe. This is the conclusion of experts from the Ankara office of the KAS. The paper is available to "Business Insider."

For example, the paper says that in Germany's attempt to become independent of Russian gas, "the expansion of the southern gas corridor and the use of Turkey as a strategic energy hub with access to gas deposits in the Caspian Sea and eastern Mediterranean could offer real alternatives" for Germany. The potential for importing Azerbaijani, Turkmen, Iraqi and, in the future, Iranian oil and gas has not yet been exhausted, they said. The authors conclude, "With Israeli-Turkish energy cooperation now becoming increasingly realistic, Turkey can position itself as an energy hub."

It goes on to say, "Turkey is dependent on Russia in terms of security, energy and economy and is therefore seeking a balanced approach." The country is indeed trying to gradually reduce its unilateral dependencies on Moscow. "Due to the complicated domestic political situation and severe economic crisis in Turkey, a massive change of course, including joining the U.S. and EU sanctions, of the current government under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cannot be expected without concrete assurance and support from the West."

In the Syrian war in particular, Turkey has long taken a hard line against belligerent Russia, the KAS paper says. Since 2015, however, there has been a "dramatic rapprochement" and "unprecedented cooperation" between the countries, it said. However, this newly developed cooperation would now be put to the test by the Ukraine war, especially since Turkey had already clearly declared its support for Ukraine's territorial sovereignty since Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Nevertheless, "the mutual dependencies, especially in the energy sector, and the good personal relations between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have made it possible to maintain constructive relations despite many difficulties," the KAS experts write.

Turkish rapprochements with Russia in recent years have been tactical in nature, they say, and should be understood more as the "self-confident appearance of a regional power" than as a "reorientation of Turkey toward Russia." In the medium term, Moscow remains Ankara's biggest strategic competitor. The longer the Ukraine war continues, the more difficult it will be for Turkey to maintain the strategic balance with Russia.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


^ What that would mean for the conflict between Turkey and Cyprus over gas fields in the Eastern Med, is hard to predict, but the claims made by turkey so far are mostly not legally vialble. I wonder whether it is wise to put Turkey into another strong position where it could blackmail Europe , and in this case especially Cyprus, once again. Well, I am rethorical. Of course I think it is not wise at all. Just: what if there is no other working shortterm solution?


It seems these days we have no good options left, no matter the topic, no matter the direction we look at. Its always foul compromises. Stinking foul comproimises. We always seem to damage our longterm interests, no matter what we do.

[mapuc]

EB Writes:

Start article
Expert: No prospect of Putin coup

A whistleblower says the risk of a coup against Putin is rising, but experts say a coup is unlikely

The risk of a coup by the Russian intelligence service FSB against President Vladimir Putin grows with every week of the war in Ukraine.

So says an intelligence whistleblower, according to The Guardian.

But if you ask Jørgen Meedom Staun, a lecturer in international politics at the Defence Academy, the risk of a coup against Putin is very small.

- I don't think it's a very likely scenario at this point, he tells Ekstra Bladet.

Has ensured the dependence of the elite

The reason why a coup is not imminent, according to Jørgen Meedom Staun, is partly the Russian elite's dependence on Putin.

- If anything, Putin has been adept at ensuring that everyone is dependent on him and that the wealth they (the elite, ed.) have acquired either legally or illegally is something they owe him, such that they will lose it if they lose their connection to Putin and political power, he says.

At the same time, Putin has what the lecturer calls 'a very strong security apparatus'.

- I'm not just referring to the intelligence services, which are among the best in the world. I am thinking primarily of the presidential guard, you might call it, Rosgvardia, says Jørgen Meedom Staun and adds:

- It is a national guard, but it is in essence a presidential guard

Under Putin's leadership

According to The Moscow Times, Rosgvardia numbered 340,000 soldiers in 2016.

- It is under the command of Putin's old bodyguard Viktor Zolotov, whom he has known for years and whom he can trust 100 percent, so it is not under the command of the Interior Ministry, nor is it under the Defense Ministry, it is under Zolotov and Putin's command alone, explains Jørgen Meedom Staun.

However, the editor acknowledges that the risk of a coup against Putin has increased with the war in Ukraine.

- But I still think it's relatively low, he says.
End of article

Translated with DeepL.

Markus