Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Sadly, the question now is....will Putin once again upstage Obama and leave him looking weak in the eyes of the world?

Yes.

We've got the wrong set of politicians to handle this.

After his round of golf is finished, Obama will draw a red line someplace, then continue golfing.

At he other end of the spectrum we've got her:


God only knows what she would do. I don't even remember what her plan was if Russia acted aggressively towards another nation. Rattle sabers? Rattle sabers, pick a fight?


I don't see how Putin can loose this one, unless he totally wimps out and backs down or something crazy happens?

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

[kranz]

This is a fight that is not worth enough for us to pick it up foolish-heartedly.

I've seen that sentence before...
Oh, even twice. In a history book somewhere around 1936 and 1938.

Originally Posted by Neville Chamberlain

TBH I agree

fixed.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

The ordinary man in the Ukraine will not feel much effect from this (if a shooting war is avoided), because the overwhelming majoirty people in the Ukraine do not live on the Crimean peninsula anyway. On the Crimean, the Russians are the majority anyway, and so only those Ukrainians living on the Crimean are effected by this crisis and its consequnces. All others suffer one or two bruises to their sentiments and nationalistic ego, but everyday worries and economic crisis will soon demand their prioritized acting again. In other words: when your belly is ekmpty and you are drownming in debts, other demands will run your thinking than just nationalism and pride.

In the end, the Crimean area is a messed up place since much, much longer already than just the past years or decades.

Would I suffer something if the Saarland in Germany breaks away from the German federal state? Or Berlin, or Hamburg (both are federal states)? I doubt it.

In case of Berlin, it would even be a great relief.

[Oberon]

Aaah, Godwin, and not by the usual suspects either.

Getting back on topic.

So, it's happened, the Russians are on the move, it was always 50/50 that they would. I honestly didn't think that they would push it, but there we go, now the question is whether they will stay in Crimea and East Ukraine or go for the whole shebang.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, the west can do, and the west knows that, and so does Putin.

God help Ukraine.

[Oberon]

As of now, I'm moving to :

[kranz]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Aaah, Godwin, and not by the usual suspects either.

isn't history the best teacher?

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by kranz

isn't history the best teacher?

And what is the lesson to learn here? WWIII?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Aaah, Godwin, and not by the usual suspects either.

Getting back on topic.

So, it's happened, the Russians are on the move, it was always 50/50 that they would. I honestly didn't think that they would push it, but there we go, now the question is whether they will stay in Crimea and East Ukraine or go for the whole shebang.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, the west can do, and the west knows that, and so does Putin.

God help Ukraine.

It'S not all that bad, Oberon. If they militarily occupy the whole East Ukraine, then this would be another ball game again than if they just go for the Crimean peninsula where Russians are the majority population anyway. Outside the Crimean, Russians are a minority, Putin knows that. They will balk at the rest of the Ukraine, but I currently expect that chances will be their forces staying within the Crimean and not trying to occupy the whole East.

Especially the Western regions of the Ukraine he will leave to the EU and Washington-dominated ICF to pay their bills. That will be at the additional disadvantage of the West, and so is tasty for Russia. The Eastern Ukraine - I'd be surprised if he would risk a military shootout over it, if the Ukraine does not try to militarily "liberate" the Crimean. Kiew really should learn some lessons form Georgia now.

The ethnic majority of people on the Crimean is Russian, nobody denies that. If this majority by referendum wants to split be Russian, I have no problem with that. That is not different than what the Scots try. No local population is the property of any central government far away. If a region wants to succeed, inj principal it has the natural right to do so. A right for demand by self-legitimizing central governments to enforce "national integrity", does not exist,. nit in the understanding of a reasonable, natural law, or morals. It's not as if Moscow holds guns at the sleeves of people on the Crimean.

At least not this time.

Note that in past years, Tartars have claimed back the Crimean for themselves increasingly, although they now are a minority only. But they are Muslim and have ties to the notoriously critical and unsecure Southern, Islamic regions and neighbours of Russia. Moscow wants to make sure it does not send a message of weakness to these by spoiling up the game for the Crimean, becasue this could encourage Muslim terror again in its own South. And then it could become very nasty again. Chechnya, anyone? Say what you want, the Russians are not shy to become brutally violent if you step beyond their alarm wires too far.

[XabbaRus]

Use of troops has only been approved. Doesn't mean the necessarily will be.

[XabbaRus]

Oberon. Just reading your long previous post. I'd agree. However about Ivanovets according to the BBC locals said this is quite common seeing a warship hanging about.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by XabbaRus

Oberon. Just reading your long previous post. I'd agree. However about Ivanovets according to the BBC locals said this is quite common seeing a warship hanging about.

Oh, didn't realise that, I guess ELINT monitoring or just a general reminder that "We're not going away".

Originally Posted by Skybird

It'S not all that bad, Oberon. If they militarily occupy the whole East Ukraine, then this would be another ball game again than if they just go for the Crimean peninsula where Russians are the majority population anyway. Outside the Crimean, Russians are a minority, Putin knows that. They will balk at the rest of the Ukraine, but I currently expect that chances will be their forces staying within the Crimean and not trying to occupy the whole East.

Especially the Western regions of the Ukraine he will leave to the EU and Washington-dominated ICF to pay their bills. That will be at the additional disadvantage of the West, and so is tasty for Russia. The Eastern Ukraine - I'd be surprised if he would risk a military shootout over it, if the Ukraine does not try to militarily "liberate" the Crimean. Kiew really should learn some lessons form Georgia now.

The ethnic majority of people on the Crimean is Russian, nobody denies that. If this majority by referendum wants to split be Russian, I have no problem with that. That is not different than what the Scots try. No local population is the property of any central government far away. If a region wants to succeed, inj principal it has the natural right to do so. A right for demand by self-legitimizing central governments to enforce "national integrity", does not exist,. nit in the understanding of a reasonable, natural law, or morals. It's not as if Moscow holds guns at the sleeves of people on the Crimean.

At least not this time.

Note that in past years, Tartars have claimed back the Crimean for themselves increasingly, although they now are a minority only. But they are Muslim and have ties to the notoriously critical and unsecure Southern, Islamic regions and neighbours of Russia. Moscow wants to make sure it does not send a message of weakness to these by spoiling up the game for the Crimean, becasue this could encourage Muslim terror again in its own South. And then it could become very nasty again. Chechnya, anyone? Say what you want, the Russians are not shy to become brutally violent if you step beyond their alarm wires too far.

It does look like it's going to be just Crimea so far, but with Donetsk also rising up against Kiev, the door is always open for operations in East Ukraine too, and it's the fact that the west is forced to either ante up or fold, there's a lot of pressure on both sides, a lot of wang waving, and this could go south quickly. Then there's the Budapest Memoradum which adds another layer of complexity to the matter.

It's a mess, in short, and going to get messier, but perhaps...perhaps things will calm down after Russia takes Crimea. I honestly don't know, I did not think that Putin would actually resort to military force in the situation where he could have used the gas switch as a cudgel to beat the Ukraine into submission.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

Yes.

We've got the wrong set of politicians to handle this.

After his round of golf is finished, Obama will draw a red line someplace, then continue golfing.

At he other end of the spectrum we've got her:


God only knows what she would do. I don't even remember what her plan was if Russia acted aggressively towards another nation. Rattle sabers? Rattle sabers, pick a fight?


I don't see how Putin can loose this one, unless he totally wimps out and backs down or something crazy happens?

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

I like your post mcbee and your choice of photo's ... however a picture of Christie and Hillary would be more in line with asking what would they do in this crisis.

Christie could cause a traffic jam at the border preventing Russian troops from entering the country and Hillary could take that all important phone call in the middle of the night that her past campaign ads touted.

I agree with feeling sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

The USA has not fought a war all by itself in a long time ... Vietnam perhaps or Panama maybe.

The war drums are beating

[nikimcbee]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

I like your post mcbee and your choice of photo's ... however a picture of Christie and Hillary would be more in line with asking what would they do in this crisis.

Christie could cause a traffic jam at the border preventing Russian troops from entering the country and Hillary could take that all important phone call in the middle of the night that her past campaign ads touted.




The war drums are beating

What difference does it make what Putin does...


OMG, I meet Bruce Springsteen.

Hopefully this doesn't escalate, or we're fubared.

[MH]

I just feel sorry for the average Ukrainian citizen caught in the middle.

Maybe you should give average Ukrainian more credit.

[mapuc]

What do we ordinary subsimmers really know about foreign politics?

Take a look in the beginning in this thread and most of us wrote, that Putin wouldn't be that dumb and It's not in the Russians interest to invade Crimea.

Here's something else. This Crisis is not going lead to some kind of a WWIII or other big war. Reason? Our leaders are chicken

Is that good or bad?

Markus