Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

Well - told you so!


Bad for Ukraine, probably. Not helping Zelensky either. I even think it will backfier against his political standing. Zelensky's approval ratings have dropped below 60%. Zalushnji's are beyond 90%, almost 95%.


This will become a bad year for Ukraine. And the next will become even worse, most likely. Zelensky's approval ratings are doomed to drop further.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Well - told you so!


Bad for Ukraine, probably. Not helping Zelensky either. I even think it will backfier against his political standing. Zelensky's approval ratings have dropped below 60%. Zalushnji's are beyond 90%, almost 95%.


This will become a bad year for Ukraine. And the next will become even worse, most likely. Zelensky's approval ratings are doomed to drop further.

Do not think replacing Zaluzhnyi will have much effect on the front the new Commander-in-Chief is capable, and it is team work approval ratings tells me nothing when there are no election possible like in most countries during a war there are no elections accord the constitution this all does not mean the war is over or going bad because who is in command worry more about the failed US support than who leads the war team.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and appointed General Oleksandr Syrskyi in his place. "I appointed Colonel-General Syrskyi as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Zelenskyy said in a video address to the nation. “He has successful defense experience - he conducted the Kyiv defense operation. He also has a successful offensive experience - the Kharkiv liberation operation,” Zelenskyy said about Syrskyi. Zelenskyy also said in his video address that Generals Andrii Hnatov, Mykhailo Drapatyi, and Ihor Skybiuk, as well as Colonels Pavel Palisa and Vadym Sukharevskyi, are being considered for leadership positions in the army. "Starting today, a new management team will take over the Armed Forces' leadership," he added. Moments prior, Zelenskyy published a Telegram post featuring him standing together with Zaluzhnyi. "I met with General Zaluzhnyi, thanked him for two years of service," Zelenskyy said in the written statement. "We just met with the president. An important and serious conversation. A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy," Zaluzhnyi wrote. "The challenges of 2022 are different from those of 2024. Therefore, everyone must change and adapt to new realities. To win together," he added. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky...ief-zaluzhnyi/

Replacing generals is not so strange in wars happened in all wars if the results are not met than it is no surprise the one that failed to achieve the result that was asked has to go. In wars there are always moments when politics demand something that the army can not achieve like the fall of Tobruk in WWII or in Ukraine Robotyne politics want it, but generals know it is a huge gamble. Doing election during war is dangerous parts of Ukraine can not vote all near front, and you have to rotate troops to let them vote rotating troops is the dangerous thing there is bet Russia will attack on election day how do you want to do that safely without voters getting bombarded.

[Jimbuna]

'Reagan must be turning in his grave': Tusk criticizes U.S. Senate for hesitating to provide aid to Ukraine

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticized the U.S. Senate, which continues to hesitate to allocate aid to Ukraine. He even mentioned former U.S. President Ronald Reagan.

"Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you," he writes.

The U.S. Senate voted on February 8 to block a bill to provide funding to support Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan and to secure the U.S. border. In the Senate vote on the night of February 8, 49 lawmakers voted in favor of the initiative, while 50 voted against it. In total, 60 votes were needed to get the legislative initiative off the ground.

Republicans have set conditions for Democrats to approve aid to Ukraine. It was about border security. Thus, Republicans threaten to withdraw aid to Ukraine if Democrats do not agree to tighten U.S. immigration laws. Other demands include restoring part of the wall on the border between the U.S. and Mexico, reducing the number of people who receive a "humanitarian password" to enter the U.S., and complicating the rules for obtaining asylum for migrants. Democrats, in turn, refuse to support such demands.

As Politico previously wrote, Ukraine has become a kind of hostage to a 30-year dispute between Republicans and Democrats over borders.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...5cd9d107&ei=28

[Jimbuna]

It would appear that Zaluzhnyi has in fact gone.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

Zelenskyy Finds a General

Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhny had the second-most-difficult job in the world. His boss has the most difficult one. On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he was removing General Valerii Zaluzhny from command of the military, and promoting General Oleksandr Syrsky, the head of the ground forces, to replace him. Predictably and understandably, there has already been a great deal of hand-wringing about Ukraine’s president cashiering his top general. Such concern is misplaced, not merely because it may be misinformed, but because it bespeaks a misunderstanding of sound civil-military relations.

Begin with what is actually known rather than rumored or surmised about the president and his general: that there has been tension for some time, possibly for as long as a year now. This rules out one possibility, which is that the dismissal reflects a major dispute about manpower, and specifically about conscription. In fact, Ukraine already has male conscription. There are real questions about mobilization and whether to call up those who have already served or who are currently exempt, but this debate seems to be more recent than the tension between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny. Moreover, such decisions—involving the delicate balance among military needs, economic and defense-industrial requirements, and domestic political stability—need to rest in the hands of civilians, as was the case in the United States during the world wars, through the Selective Service System. That leaves two other possibilities. The first is a personal clash. Differences of personality and style, compounded by minor political intrigues in the president’s inner circle, might have produced a split. Or Zaluzhny might have, or be suspected of having, political aspirations. The other is a substantive disagreement. Zelenskyy might have lost confidence in Zaluzhny as the commander in chief of the armed forces... https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...luzhny/677334/

I met General Syrsky before the war at D-10 in Avdiivka and under his command as a Legionnaire at Land Warfare HQ. I believe he is a good commander. Soldiers bitch about a lot. Few liked Patton, but he kicked ass. Trust those who have to risk or spill their blood to support the new commander. With a few Ukrainian exceptions, don’t listen to all the armchair analysts spelling doom. How would they know? They don’t. He’s killed more than a few tens of thousands of Russians in his time. Let him kill some more. https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/sta...67548127760758

[Skybird]

I do not say Sersky is no competent officer - he is, his name popped up during this war's time several times, always in a positive context. But he does not preach much differently than Zalushnji, and like his predecessor accentuates the need for modern technology and accompnying tactics. However, he has not the same popularity with the troops like Zalushnji, and especially not in the population. And this big public support for Zalushnji matters very much in regard to public and troop morale. Zelenskji got angry at Zalushnji when Zalushnji had enough of Zelenskji's endless display of unfounded optimism, and spoke tachless in his now famous essay for the Economist. As I see things from the distance, he simply spoke out the truth, while Zelensji endlessly blinds the Ukrainians - and these have started to realise it.

Zelenskji wanted to get rid of a potential and then potent political rival whose popularity more and more undermined his own declining authority. The job of Syrski now is to work miracles and wonders to reverse Zelenskji's decline with the population this way.

Note that a first attempt to fire Zalushnji in a soft exit, asking him to step down, was refused by the man - and that Wetsern leaders intervened on his behalf and wanted Zelenski to hold him. Also, Washington and Berlin and the others probably as well do not unconditionally trust Zelenski, never did, from beginning on. They remained to stay cautiously on their guard, sugarcoating that stand with lots of sweet cream and honeyful wordings that cost nothing.

Zelenskji can no longer work as the figurehead of Ukrainian resistence will, he has shot all his powder to get more weapons from the West, and the country now is taken hostage by the Republican mess in the US. Ukraine is helpless in this, can do nothing. With that being said, Zelenskji's star is descending. After all, Russia's superior economic and demographic and military weight and mass against the Ukraine makes itself being felt now. With US support gone, they can anger the Russians, and sting them in their rear, but they cannot reverse the general trend.

And when the looming Russian "elections" are done, Putin must not hold back with unpopular measures anymore.

The West had its chance. It let it pass by. Now what I see is just delaying the announcement of the result. But that causes its own costs in themselves.

The West acted very, very stupdily and cowardly. We should have gone "all in" in the first months already - or stayed out of it all, completely". The half-baked approach that was chosen, was and is not expedient and only serves to conceal the company's own failures.

The chance to end this conflict by beating the Russians their mouths bloody, was in the very beginning. It was then when all in support possible should have been activated and sent in. Now, over the long time, politically and materially and psychologically everything works for Russia and against Ukraine. Thats why I think the war is decided. They just delay the announcement of the outcome. The recipe to win the war was by deciding it very early on and to avoid, at all cost, a prolongued war like now. Russia now creeps in for the win. They will secure big chunks of territory from Ukraine, much of its industrial heart, and plenty of its agricultural farmground. Probably not this year, maybe not next year - but in the end of all this.

[mapuc]

Not going to watch this interview-What I have seen in the news clip is enough



Markus

[Dargo]

Not much to learn that Putin said already in the past. This was no interview Putin had total control over, Tucker Carlson (Vladimir Putin's useful idiot) playing to an American audience to weakening Western resolve. Orwellian newspeak.

Originally Posted by George Orwell, 1984

War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.

Russian Telegram channels reported that the interview with Carlson and Carlson himself was not to Putin's liking, and the interview itself was considered a failure: "The Kovalchuk clan sharply criticizes the idea of an interview with the American journalist Carlson. They say that the problem is the unpreparedness of the interview arrangement - it was Gromov's and Peskov's mistake. Putin should have talked about conservative values, the creation of a conservative alliance, and moving on - but he went into history and platitudes about Ukraine. Naryshkin, who allegedly planted ideas with documents of Bohdan Khmelnytskyi and nonsense with Poland, also played a negative role here. He set Putin up to the fullest. Medinsky would not allow such a thing." According to reports, Putin didn't like Tucker Carlson - "a snob and a useful idiot who got a meaningful fee, but was lazy and lacked creativity." Kovalchuk family believes they could have done better with Tucker Carlson, but "everything was wasted." There's a wave of complaints in the Kremlin. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...43266804301881

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

The new commander in chief has the nickname "butcher". He is a Russian by birth, and his military training he received according to post-Sovjet, Russian doctrine. While he acted successfully at Kiv, Charkiv and Bakhmut, he is also not undisputed, because he has the reputation of being merciless not just towards enemy troops, but also towards his own troops, thus his nickname. Andjust minuites ago I red that under his command most of Ukraine'S best special commandos and elite troops have been sacrificed for the defence of just symbologically objects. All in all, he wa ssuccessful so far, but he wore down hois troops tremendously.


He is also described as being loyal and uncritical to Zelenskji. Which probably is the real reason for Zelenskji's manouver. That Zalushnji opposed Zelenskji's hesitent recruitment policy, did not make it better for Zalushnji either.



I have doubts on the cleverness of this move, and I think it will do Ukraine not well. It solves none of the problems, but comes at the risk of even accelerating their worstening. It does cure none the base problems, namely that of lacking Western support.



Assessing this all on the basis of media reports only, of course.

[Dargo]

You have one side, praise him:
It seems that Syrsky is quietly fitting into the ranks of history's great strategists himself. Here and there, he is already being called the most successful general of the 21st century. His military ingenuity, according to former Colonel Roger Housen, is not inferior to that of German General Erwin Rommel or of other ringing names in the history of war. "I would put him in the Champions League of generals," Housen said. "He's really in that class of George Patton or Dwight Eisenhower." While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy insisted to the Ukrainian people that a Russian invasion was unlikely, Syrsky prepared for the worst. He divided the city into sectors, each with its own commander, had two rows of defences built, and blew up dams around the city to stop the Russian advance. His defensive strategy was successful: Russia failed to take the Ukrainian capital. Later, Syrsky led a successful counteroffensive in the eastern Ukrainian province of Kharkiv. As a young officer, he was sent to Afghanistan, where Soviet forces were forced to withdraw in 1989. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, he was also stationed in Tajikistan and the Czech Republic. Because of his experience, he knows the Russian military inside and out.

In the Russian capital, he graduated in 1986 from one of the most prestigious military academies in the then Soviet Union. There he was prepared to go to war against the U.S. and Western Europe. As a young officer, he was sent to Afghanistan, where Soviet forces were forced to withdraw in 1989. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, he was also stationed in Tajikistan and the Czech Republic. Because of his experience, he knows the Russian military inside and out. "A huge advantage," Housen says. "He can really see into his opponent's head now, because he himself has been trained in the Russian system." Shortly after the turn of the century, Syrsky was appointed general. In 2013, Syrsky was given responsibility for cooperation between the Ukrainian army and NATO, where he was introduced to the strategic thinking of Western armies.

So that knowledge has already paid off. Syrsky, who has been fighting Russian-backed separatists since 2014, was able to exploit the weaknesses of Vladimir Putin's forces very quickly in the invasion. The Russian military has a top-down command structure, allowing lower ranking officers to take little initiative. That makes it difficult for Russian units to adapt to changing circumstances. "But on the battlefield, you have to seize opportunities precisely when they arise," Housen said. "Syrsky actually encouraged his officers to take advantage of them. At the beginning of the invasion, he allowed his troops to use hit-and-run tactics to attack the Russians and retreat quickly."

Other side:
When the war in eastern Ukraine began a year later, "the snow leopard," as he is known in the military, was appointed deputy chief of staff of Ukrainian forces in the war zone. Near the town of Debaltseve, Syrsky first showed his ruthless side: after the Ukrainians were surrounded there, Syrsky forbade the soldiers to surrender. Instead, he devised a risky nighttime escape. Most of the soldiers managed to escape, but more than a hundred were killed. Syrsky received a high military decoration for his "extraordinary merits" at Debaltseve. In the fall of 2022, Syrsky was given command of the defense of the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhut. The battle of Bakhut, which lasted nearly a year, became one of the bloodiest confrontations since the war began. Although Bakhut had little strategic value and Ukraine suffered heavy losses in its defense, Syrsky refused to give up the town: Russian losses were even greater, and keeping the Russians busy at Bakhut allowed Ukraine to recover in other places. Not all Ukrainian soldiers supported the intransigence at Bakhut, which cost many soldiers their lives. In the trenches, soldiers would call the general "General 200" behind his back, after the code number used to designate fallen soldiers. At the town of Soledar, near Bachmoet, he had soldiers fight for a year and a half straight, with no possibility of leave.
---
Thus, the news that Syrsky is the new commander of the Ukrainian army has been met with mixed feelings. On the one hand, he is known as an effective and experienced general who knows how to defeat a better-equipped opponent. However, his reputation among the soldiers is dubious, and Syrsky is also no match for his immensely popular predecessor Zaluzhny in terms of charisma. Moreover, Syrsky speaks Ukrainian with a strong Russian accent, to the displeasure of some patriotic Ukrainians. Do not think he is the problem on this moment lack of ammo and infantry will force Ukraine to tactical redraw in some areas of the front to better defence positions they have no choice on the moment there is still good news it is said that shells are coming from South Africa hope these reach the front on time also this war is turning into a drone war more and more with Ukraine at this moment with the majority of drone strikes. But also mistakes are made, Ukraine is too late with his build up of his defence lines they had to begin with this in October 2023 to have them ready do not know the extent of progress, but good secure defence line saves a lot of lives. Time will tell.

Assessing this all on the basis of media reports only, of course.

About the butcher naming, They Called Grant a Butcher. But can a butcher have regrets?
---
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has replaced Chief of General Staff Serhi Shaptala. He is to make way for Anatoli Barhylevych, former chief of staff for Territorial Defence. Zelenskyy described Barhilevych in a video address Friday night as "an experienced person who understands the tasks of this war and Ukraine's objectives. In Ukraine, the commander of the armed forces and the chief of the general staff are two different positions. The chief of the general staff's responsibilities include ensuring that the armed forces have the right equipment to fight. According to the Ukrainian president, the renewals are necessary because so far the goals are not being achieved.

[Dargo]

There is no limit to arms support for Ukraine, outgoing Dutch Defence Minister Ollongren believes. "When it comes to weapons, conventional weapons, training and spare parts there should be no limit, as far as I'm concerned" Ollongren believes it is important to support Ukraine "permanently." "I think we have evolved in how we do that," the minister says in the interview in which she looks back on her time as defence minister. "We started supplying from our own stockpile, and now we do it in cooperation with other countries and industries because we also had to keep our stockpile up."

Not only Ukraine, but also the security of the Netherlands benefits from the military support, Ollongen stressed. "It is not like we are sitting here safely behind the dikes. We are part of the EU and NATO, and it can also affect us." She points out that it is a large-scale war, with trenches and drones. "That's what awaits us if we don't handle this wisely." She thinks it is important that the Netherlands allocate enough money for defence.

[mapuc]

I'm fully convinced if Ukraine get what it needs in war material-such as weapon weapon system and lots of ammo-Ukraine going to win this war.

Markus