Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

https://www.focus.de/politik/russlan..._69516015.html



Political scientist and strategy expert Maximilian Terhalle does not expect a peace solution in Ukraine with compromises from both sides. In an interview with FOCUS Online, he declared, "Putin will not stop until he is stopped!" The means: massive arms deliveries from the West and an embargo on Russian gas. Otherwise, Putin might even attack NATO territory.


Professor Maximilian Terhalle is a visiting professor at the LSE IDEAS think tank at the London School of Economics and a lieutenant colonel in the reserves. His most recent publication is "The Responsibility to Defend: Re-thinking Germany's Strategic Culture" (IISS 2021, with B. Giegerich).
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The current negotiations between Moscow and Kiev on an early end to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine will not lead to success. Political scientist and strategy expert Professor Maximilian Terhalle (47) is convinced of this. Instead, the West would have to tighten its grip on Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin and "bring him to his knees" through economic sanctions and massive arms deliveries to Ukraine. Otherwise, he said, there is a danger that Putin's troops will also attack NATO countries.

In an interview with FOCUS Online, Terhalle said, "There will be no peace solution - to be enforced by anyone - that is based on compromises in the sense of: You withdraw a bit there and we withdraw a bit there and in the middle we put the UN." He is also skeptical about Ukraine's neutrality, which is currently under discussion. "From Ukraine's point of view, I wouldn't trust Putin one millimeter over," Terhalle said. "I assume this is just a feint on his part to get a breather, realign his military and then strike again."

The professor went on to tell FOCUS Online that Putin is "highly frustrated and angry" over the slow progress of the war he instigated. At the same time, he said, an "irrepressible hatred of Ukraine and the West" was driving him to ever greater acts of violence. Russia's president, he said, sees that his army is not penetrating as planned and is instead suffering sensitive losses. "Yet he wants to force victory." The logical conclusion for Terhalle: "Putin will not stop until he is stopped!"

To bring "Putin's war machine" to a halt, Terhalle sees only two means that the West should use much more consistently than it has so far. "One is for NATO countries to supply massive amounts of weapons technology and military hardware to Ukraine." The Russians would not be able to stop that, he said. "They are currently unable to stop the flow of fighters and military equipment across the Polish-Ukrainian border," Terhalle said. "That is Putin's sore point."

Terhalle to FOCUS Online: "As long as the eastern border is open, the West should deliver all the weapons it can to Ukraine!" For one thing, this would prop up Ukraine. For another, Russia would be "dramatically weakened." Putin must "lose his way" in Ukraine, Terhalle said. "We have to take away his power."

For this goal to be achieved, economic sanctions against Moscow should be drastically tightened. For example, "all Russian banks would have to be taken out of the Swift payment system," the geostrategist told FOCUS Online. In addition, an embargo of Russian oil and gas would have to be "the clear and near ultimate goal" of the West. Terhalle: "This could finally stop the Russian military machine, which is fed by us every day with around 800 million euros for gas and oil imports."

So far, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) have strictly rejected a rapid import stop of Russian oil and gas because they see Germany's energy supply in danger. Political scientist Terhalle counters, "If not even a country as rich as Germany can afford a small cut in its own prosperity - who can?" In this context, he recalled that Putin responds "only to coercion."

If the West does not understand this principle and acts accordingly, he said, this could have devastating consequences - including for Germany. "I don't think it's impossible that Putin will expand his war and also attack NATO countries. The West should absolutely take that into account and be prepared for it," Maximilian Terhalle said. It is true that the Kremlin ruler would first have to bring his troops to the eastern border of Poland or the southern border of the Baltic states. But that is only a question of time and the power reserves of Putin's army.

In an emergency, Putin would then encounter a "militarily extremely hardened eastern flank of NATO, which is conventionally highly armed," Terhalle said. "And then it's war!" The expert, who himself is a reserve lieutenant colonel, says, "Then Bundeswehr soldiers will be in the front line, opposing the Russians - and doing so by fighting." Already, he said, NATO has the "best combat troops the alliance can muster" stationed in Poland and the Baltics. "They have to repel a Russian attack when in doubt," he said.

Terhalle believes Putin has "vastly overestimated the fighting morale, the will to fight, and the actual fighting strength" of his army. "Putin is not getting through despite the brute force in many places in Ukraine, and the casualties and attrition are high."

Still, the expert strongly warns against underestimating Putin and his military. "We've been thinking for three weeks now: He's making so many mistakes, it's not going to work. But Putin will learn, he will adapt his strategy, he will use other weapons systems. His will is unbroken. He wants to achieve his goal and emerge from the war as a winner." In the process, he said, it is conceivable that Putin will also use chemical and biological weapons in Ukrainian cities.
Volodymyr Selenskyj, president of Ukraine, during a video conference with the U.S. Congress.
Ukrinform/dpa Volodymyr Selenskyj, president of Ukraine, during a video conference with the U.S. Congress.

The political scientist also does not believe that the recent losses among Russian combat units must automatically lead to a weakening. "Putin still has the Russian conventional army up his sleeve that he could send into combat." However, it is also clear that the course of the war, which is unsatisfactory from Russia's point of view, "falls back on Putin personally." Terhalle to FOCUS Online: "Putin is the war president. And if the war president doesn't live up to his own claim, it's very questionable in my view whether he'll still be Russia's head of state in six or twelve months."

No matter how the war develops, Putin will no longer play a leading role on the world political stage, Terhalle believes. "Putin, in my view, can no longer sit at a negotiating table in talks about the future of European security." The powerful Kremlin leader has proven he is unwilling to resolve certain issues peacefully, he said. "Instead, he has chosen the means of brute, brutal force to impose his will on another sovereign state. In doing so, he has permanently isolated himself in the world community."

Russia, on the other hand, will continue to be an international negotiating partner - but only "if it completely withdraws its war aims and completely revises its attitude toward Ukraine," Terhalle said.

The war is a frightening reminder of how dramatically the world situation has changed, he said. "We no longer live in a world where international treaties, international principles, institutions and cooperation can be considered the gold standard of world politics," Professor Terhalle said. "Putin's war shows that there are powers that want to and can destroy exactly this beautiful world. We have to prepare for that. The sooner we do that, the better."

Terhalle doubts whether the necessary rethinking has already begun in Germany. For example, he said, the German government has acted very hesitantly since the start of the war and has watched as other countries have jumped to Ukraine's side with military aid, first and foremost the United States and Great Britain. "Whether the sole delivery of Stinger and Strela defensive weapons is sufficient for the mentality required at the turn of the times is something everyone must decide for themselves," Terhalle said. "What is clear, however, is that Berlin was neither requested as a guarantor power of possible Ukrainian neutrality in the first place, nor did it willingly bring itself into play as one of the guarantors."


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Catfish]

So Putin said the Ukraine and the US is executing experiments with african swine fever, Cholera and the Corona-virus in the Ukraine, trying to create biological weapons against Russia. Of course. He only forgot Godzilla.

Later he claims "the west" is conducting an economic war against Russia. But no not the west, it is the whole world sans North Korea, and Vladi this is not war but an economic special operation.

That the war in Ukraine and the killing of civilians goes "exactly according to schedule" will be an interesting statement in Den Haag.



Seems he has a meltdown. Unpatriotic russians are scum and traitors, cleansing the land, every critic is an enemy. God help the russian people.

[Skybird]

Next he will threaten to activate Kampfgruppe Steiner.

[mapuc]

Ukraine are getting some really nasty weapon system from USA

As part of a massive military aid package announced Wednesday, the Biden administration is providing Ukraine with U.S.-made killer drones — cutting-edge guided missiles that could accurately target Russian troops from miles away — two congressional officials briefed on the matter told NBC News.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...sile-rcna20197

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Ukraine are getting some really nasty weapon system from USA



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...sile-rcna20197

Markus

And I presume advisors and other personnel to instruct how to use them effectively.

[fithah4]

I know all journalists & reporters want the latest whopper of a breaking story, but continuing needling and prying for info just remind me of..........
LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS!!!

Andrew J. May was responsible for a major release of highly confidential military information during World War II known as the May Incident. U.S. submarines had been conducting a successful undersea war against Japanese shipping during World War II, frequently escaping their anti-submarine depth charge attacks.

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Time may judge "us" or not, it is obvious how it already judges Putin.

Just because the latter only understands a direct punch in the face,
the west should go all in, now. Including Germany and all the EU states.

What is anybody waiting for? Ukraine being bombed into oblivion?
Let the Ukrainians defend themselves alone just because they are not in the NATO? Wait until Russia is ready for the Baltic and Finnland? Putin has said it all openly in 2007, are 14 years not enough to understand?

This is about as accurate as it gets. As a former KGB agent, Putin understands nothing but force. We watch and see innocents being killed, waiting in line for bread.

Civilians being targeted in their flats, in their respective beds. Does anyone really believe this despot will stop at the Ukraine ?

Putin's words and intentions are exactly the same. When will enough be enough ? It seems to me that the collective will in Europe is there. As for us, the U.S, how much money have we spent in years past to maintain and modernize our military forces to maintain a state of readiness.

[Otto Harkaman]

[Reece]

You like this link Otto?
https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=2216

[Otto Harkaman]

How dissent was crushed in Belarus

'Walking reminders of atrocities'
Survivors of state brutality in Belarus share their stories.

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/l...hed-in-belarus

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

But considering that most of Russian history has run under these secretive conditions since centuries and where it ha sled them, I wonder what we should hope this will bring today.

I suspect very little.

[Jimbuna]

What the US is sending Ukraine
$800 million in new military assistance, including...

800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems that can shoot down planes

2,000Javelins, shoulder-held anti-tank weapons that shoot heat-seeking rockets

6,000AT-4 anti-armor systems, a Swedish-produced, single-use, unguided anti-tank weapon

Source: BBC

[Jimbuna]

Putin has laid out his terms for a halt to hostilities in a phone call to Turkey's President, none of which are surprising and most are probably acceptable. The demand for neutrality is probably acceptable but to disarm? (Ironic as it is the Russians who have been the aggressor.) No mention of Russia paying reparations for the lives lost and the damage done.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785754

[Jimbuna]

An aircraft maintenance plant close to Lviv has been hit with missiles, the city's mayor says.

It is the closest the war has come to the historic city in western Ukraine, which has been a safe haven for people fleeing fighting.

The mayor says no casualties have been reported so far and rescue workers are at the site.

Two million people have fled Ukraine to Poland since the war began, the Polish Border Guard agency says.

Ukrainian counterattacks and logistical woes are stalling Russia's offensive in Ukraine, according to a UK military assessment.

US President Joe Biden will urge China not to provide Russia with military equipment in a call with President Xi Jinping later.

Survivors are reported to be emerging from the ruins of a theatre in Mariupol that Ukrainian authorities say was bombed by Russia.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

What the US is sending Ukraine
$800 million in new military assistance, including...

800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems that can shoot down planes

2,000Javelins, shoulder-held anti-tank weapons that shoot heat-seeking rockets

6,000AT-4 anti-armor systems, a Swedish-produced, single-use, unguided anti-tank weapon

Source: BBC

Lets have a party! Right what they need, ATMs and ATGMs, and MANPADs If even every third warhead kills a target, this would translate into losses that break any offensive's backbone. They need to get these weapons to the fighting troops without the Russians taking the transports out, however. Should be diable. Ukraine is a bit bigger than Germany, and roughly comparable to the size of France. The border it shares with Poland is long.

Does anyone know whether there is any MANPAD existing that has a higher reach than Stingers?