Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Armistead]

"But any people, the Russian people, especially, are able to distinguish true patriots from bastards and traitors and will spit them out," he said of those who did not back the Kremlin.

"I am certain that this necessary and natural self-cleansing of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, togetherness, and our readiness to answer any calls to action," Putin said.


Putin is sounding more like Hitler everyday

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Russia has attacked a theatre sheltering civilians in the besieged city of Mariupol, officials say. Fresh BBC-verified pictures show the building in ruins.

Between 1,000 and 1,200 people may have been inside, the city's deputy mayor tells the BBC. The number of casualties is currently unknown.

A local MP tells the BBC that the basement where people were sheltering withstood the attack, with rescuers working to reach the site.

At least one person has died after the debris of a downed missile hit a residential apartment in the capital Kyiv.

Russian journalist Marina Ovsyannikova says she hopes her televised protest, holding a sign saying "no war", will lead people to question local media reports.

The UK will deploy the Sky Sabre missile system in Poland, along with 100 troops, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says.

President Joe Biden calls Vladimir Putin a “war criminal” and UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss says there is "very strong evidence" he is.

The Kremlin labels Biden's comments "unacceptable and unforgivable rhetoric"

[Skybird]

Russia - the "tenth of a state"


https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._69413755.html



All the assumptions that led Putin to launch the war of aggression were wrong. All the war aims that Russia's ruler set for himself are unattainable. While Putin commits one strategic mistake after another, for Russia an increasingly powerful adversary emerges in the east.

President Putin has proven to be a poor strategist. He has turned an overall favorable situation for Russia into a disaster for the country through war. Before the war, Russia sold large quantities of raw materials and used them to finance the state, military, and economy. Before the war, President Putin expanded Russia's influence in the Middle East and North Africa. Before the war, EU countries were at odds among themselves and with the United States.

Before the war, China also thought Russia had effective armed forces. Before the war, Russia had an influence on parts of the population in Ukraine. Already during the war, all this is over - and after the war, the consequences for Russia's state and society will be international isolation, internal repression, and a significant decline in economic output. President Putin has turned an overall advantageous situation into a comprehensive evil. Why?

Putin's favoritism: the messenger is beaten for the bad news

The decision to go to war is one that requires special attention and consideration, even for authoritarian rulers. This is because history knows of numerous wars that left the aggressor as the loser. The order to attack must therefore be well considered, checked for all counter-arguments and balanced against the imponderables of dynamic situation development. This is a particular challenge for authoritarian rulers because they are insulated from contradiction even more than other people in government offices. The longer they are in office, the more sustainable the illusion of control over the course of events becomes. This is because they are increasingly surrounded by yes-men who do not dare to deliver unpleasant news to the ruler.

For the bad news, the messenger is beaten. This is already the case in liberal institutions; how much more so in a repressive system that turns fear of change into fear of one another. The public stagings of Russia's National Security Council, in which President Putin made the top state security agencies appear like lackeys, captured this moment of the ruler's information isolation in a comically tragic way.

Russian illusions shatter in the face of reality

Then it happens, as Carl von Clausewitz described 200 years ago, that "one news supports the other, confirms it, enlarges it, paints the picture with ever new colors, until necessity has pushed away from us in flying haste the decision, which - soon is recognized as folly, just as all news is recognized as lies, exaggerations, errors."

In an echo chamber, which does not tolerate the contradiction, in which the synchronization of the judgments ("Yes, we should recognize the people's republics") is virtually demanded, the presumed certainties strengthen to the misjudgment. Then the circle of decision-makers still basks in the optimistic assumptions, while in truth they are already shattered by reality:

"The war will be short, well-founded and victorious."
"The citizens of Ukraine will greet us as liberators."
"The West, in its disunity, will not be able to quickly agree to sanctions."
"The Europeans prefer economic benefits to a clear stance after all."
"Germany's Putin savants will fix it."
"We will not be ostracized internationally because of the quick victory."
"After that, Washington and Beijing will also know the clout behind Russia's claim."

One assumption after another, which must have taken root in the Kremlin's leadership circle, turns out to be an illusion.

The pinnacle of these illusions is the overconfidence of the ruler, whose actions have no limits at home and who does not accept them internationally. This overconfidence suggests that he is in control of situations. Any time, any place. It tempts to action.

Putin will not achieve any of his war aims

We do not know publicly with whom the Russian president consulted before making the decision to go to war. We do not know publicly whether he actually carried out all of the optimistic assumptions listed above before the order to attack was given. Or only some of them. Given the situation that has now arisen, however, it is plausible to assume that he did. For if the Russian president had known that the situation that had now arisen was to be expected, he would have had difficulty in taking the decision to go to war in order to achieve the objectives he had claimed.

These goals were proclaimed by the Russian government:

Ukraine and Belarus were to be brought into a particularly close relationship with Russia.
A belt of buffer states was to be created between the Baltic States and Bulgaria, without foreign armed forces in these states.
The security of the European NATO states was to be decoupled from the U.S., and deterrence in Europe was to be reduced.

None of this is being achieved. Ukraine will not become a Russia-friendly neighboring state for a very, very long time. The states on NATO's eastern border will not renounce deterrence by foreign troops, but will strengthen it. The U.S. has once again become the firm leading power of NATO. Because instead of the optimistic assumptions, the situation is developing like this: The advance in the war remains at a standstill, concealed only by reckless bombing. Russian casualties are higher than expected. The sanctions are tangibly constricting Russia's state and economy after only a few days: the ruble in free fall; access to state assets restricted; the stock exchange closed; major companies facing insolvency. No other authoritative state supports Russia's actions. Nor does China, which is what President Putin may have hoped for.

Xi's China weighs ten times more heavily than Putin's Russia.

This is because Russia has acted in parallel against important strategic interests of China. China is interested in ensuring that the U.S. and Europe do not develop a common China policy, but that Beijing can exploit their respective special interests in terms of trade policy. The coordination of the U.S., European and Asian states in the sanctions policy against Russia have produced the opposite here: the unity of the West, strong as it has not been for a long time. At the same time, China is interested in economic recovery after the pandemic, which is now at risk. This is because high oil and gas prices in particular are hurting China, the largest importer. This has been caused by Putin's decision to go to war.

Russia's actions are aimed at stitching Europe together as a third world power alongside the U.S. and China, which requires Russian leadership. President Putin stated this goal as early as 2001 in his speech to the German Bundestag. This was overheard in the excitement about Russia's democratic perspective. Twenty years later, he still pursued this goal with the war of aggression on Ukraine. But he failed to achieve it.

In terms of international law, the war of aggression is a crime; in terms of Putin's own purposes, it is a mistake. After that, Russia's only option is to seek a new relationship with China as a tenth of a state with a huge land mass. One tenth of China's population, one tenth of China's economic power (with a declining tendency), that is Russia's weight, from which no relationship at eye level will grow. Only a democratic Russia will be able to take a different place in the international order in the foreseeable future.
----------------
Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations as well as American and German foreign policy.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by astvitaliy1982

You make mockery of the intentionally slaughtering of hundreds if not thousans of civilians by ...


Why didn't you write like that when the civilians of Donbass were being shelled for eight years? Or don't people live there? Here is more information to think about: A provocation in Kramatorsk is possible!
In Kramatorsk, local residents are outraged by the placement of the AFU headquarters in the buildings of educational institutions. In particular, the soldiers and part of the defense forces were located in the 6th school (Bolshaya Sadovaya, 71) and in the 91st kindergarten (School, 16). The soldiers react extremely aggressively to the comments of the townspeople.

Earlier, it became known from the documents obtained in the liberated Volnovakha that the practice of using educational, cultural and health facilities as shelters was introduced at the level of the AFU command. Videos from busy schools and kindergartens regularly appear.
This choice is based on the fact that such facilities have high-quality bomb shelters in which the military can hide.
Civilians are left to hide in the buildings themselves, which makes it possible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to repeat a criminal provocation following the example of Mariupol. - There is also a photo.

Fair enough. I was not getting a lot on news and updates on the activity in the eastern Ukraine area, Donbass, etc until recently. It was generally known that this was an area where the Russians, Ukrainians, and various factions were actively hostile to each other. Other than that, not much was covered in the news as far as I knew. Is that a fault of news organizations? Possibly. Or it could be a consequence of so many regions in the world where people are squabbling over old grudges. I'm sure there are 100 similar stories in Africa and South America.

How much of my news is factual and how much is incorrect or "propaganda"? I don't know for certain, I do not trust many news organizations anyway, there is definitely a credibility problem with the media. But in general, I think I can get a true sense of what's going on.

Sometimes one can decide on what is true and what is propaganda simply by the scope of the claims. For example, Putin's insistence that the Ukraine govt is run by neo-nazis seems pretty absurd, even though there are issues with militia groups that use nazi imagery and culture.

Far-right groups have also gained political currency in the past decade, none more chilling than Svoboda (formerly the Social National Party of Ukraine), whose leader claimed the country was controlled by a “Muscovite-Jewish mafia” and whose deputy used an antisemitic slur to describe Ukrainian-born Jewish actor Mila Kunis. Svoboda has sent several members to Ukraine’s Parliament, including one who called the Holocaust a “bright period” in human history, according to Foreign Policy.

Just as disturbing, neo-Nazis are part of some of Ukraine’s growing ranks of volunteer battalions. They are battle-hardened after waging some of the toughest street fighting against Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine following Putin’s Crimean invasion in 2014. One is the Azov Battalion, founded by an avowed white supremacist who claimed Ukraine’s national purpose was to rid the country of Jews and other inferior races. In 2018, the U.S. Congress stipulated that its aid to Ukraine couldn’t be used “to provide arms, training or other assistance to the Azov Battalion.” Even so, Azov is now an official member of the Ukraine National Guard.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinio...ar-ncna1290946

Assuming that article is accurate, there are some concerns worth looking into. But, does that warrant a massive military invasion of the whole country? Does that justify the murder of thousands of non-combatants? Blowing up children indiscriminately with no effort to minimize collateral damage? Destroying peoples homes, cars, pets, cherished family heirlooms, books, hobbies, and everything that they live for? No, I think that's where it is pretty obvious the answer if NO.

The issues in Donbass should have been solved in Donbass. If Ukraine had the power to bomb the hell out of Moscow, then Putin would probably not bombed Kyiv.

Putin has this idea that the West is out to get him. Yeah, sure, me and my friends are always talking about the day when the US and NATO can launch a surprise attack on Russia and overthrow the govt, enslave the people, and get some free caviar. The obvious truth is countries want in NATO to avoid the fate now in Ukraine. Russia is its own worst enemy.

What is propaganda and what is factual? What to believe? Well, one thing that is factual is that Russia has been under the control of a corrupt dictator, Putin, for 22 years. Fact. He has enriched himself and a select group of supporters illegally, at the expense of the Russian people. Fact. Putin has banned free media. Fact. Putin does not allow free speech, does not allow people to protest without going to prison, and routinely poisons and kills his opponents and does not allow them to get political traction to oppose him. All facts. So, when I am weighing the validity of Russia's claims about fighting in Donbass or motives for political actions, these facts definitely affect my thinking.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Russia - the "tenth of a state"



Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger has held the Chair of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research focuses on international relations as well as American and German foreign policy.

Most interesting and I suspect, accurate.

[Skybird]

Time for a little time warp back.

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...9&postcount=45


Who says it's not just about who has the longest Willy? The Russians seem to have a fixation there.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Otto Harkaman]

Trying to keep a jaded view of things. I think a lot of the destroyed vehicles we see with very bright painted Z or V are destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. The Z or V symbol painted on the Russian vehicles seem very washed out.

[Jimbuna]

This is definitely one of the main seeds of doubt when both sides have almost identical equipment.

[Armistead]

Good for her! With the brave woman that protested during the state news it appears the women have more balls than Russian men.https://www.cnn.com/style/article/ol...2plxndzLBKzntg

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman

Trying to keep a jaded view of things. I think a lot of the destroyed vehicles we see with very bright painted Z or V are destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. The Z or V symbol painted on the Russian vehicles seem very washed out.

The Z and V on Russian vehicles stands for their military districts of origin, as far as the Easter, Asian district. Some may have improvised markings that were attached while beign transferred, others might have had these signs by default, and thus clearer paint.

[mapuc]

Have a few questions (I don't wanna start a new thread with polls)

Do you believe WWIII

1. Started when Russia invaded Ukraine
Or
2. Hasn't started yet-but it will come it's 100 %.
Or
3. WWIII what is that ?? Some national dish ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Armistead

Good for her! With the brave woman that protested during the state news it appears the women have more balls than Russian men.https://www.cnn.com/style/article/ol...2plxndzLBKzntg

Several prominent classical dancers and the TV studio and moderator team of state TV news have quit their jobs as well in protest, I red yesterday. Thje many wounded, the PIOWs, the dea din body bags, they all msooner or later must come home to Russia, so do many Russian tourists and travllers who were caught by events overseas. The state cannot prevent the information spreading around. The sdtate can prosecute who speak it out, but behidn closed doors, in hoimes and with lowered voices, it will make the rounds.



But considering that most of Russian history has run under these secretive conditions since centuries and where it ha sled them, I wonder what we should hope this will bring today.